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Coronavirus: Coming to a Neighborhood Near You?

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LIKELY NEVER by PARTY:

  • 43% REP (36% in March)
  • 22% IND (31%)
  • 5% DEM (6%)

Might be just what the Dems need to win the midterms....

xD

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Adult ICU is up to 83.8%, up about 5 percent since the end of last week.  Sounds like Whitmer's hope is with some of the drugs available for use, to treat customers with the idea/hope they don't get to the ICU level.  But not sure the pressure that puts on hospital beds themselves.  I'm not entirely sure if that's a good idea, but I guess we'll see.  Regardless, looks like we're putting on blinders now and charging forward.  

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5 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Adult ICU is up to 83.8%, up about 5 percent since the end of last week.  Sounds like Whitmer's hope is with some of the drugs available for use, to treat customers with the idea/hope they don't get to the ICU level.  But not sure the pressure that puts on hospital beds themselves.  I'm not entirely sure if that's a good idea, but I guess we'll see.  Regardless, looks like we're putting on blinders now and charging forward.  

My wife says that if an infected person gets to the hospital within the first 36-48 hours of symptoms the BAM infusion (Bamlanivimab) works great and you go home and recover. It's the folks that wait for symptoms to worsen then its to late and it will not work......

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6 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

My wife says that if an infected person gets to the hospital within the first 36-48 hours of symptoms the BAM infusion (Bamlanivimab) works great and you go home and recover. It's the folks that wait for symptoms to worsen then its to late and it will not work......

One of my best buddy's dad passed away from this, and that is exactly what he said - don't wait around if you have symptoms, go to the hospital.  

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15 minutes ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

My wife says that if an infected person gets to the hospital within the first 36-48 hours of symptoms the BAM infusion (Bamlanivimab) works great and you go home and recover. It's the folks that wait for symptoms to worsen then its to late and it will not work......

With this hitting a younger group right now, isn't it something like 35-60 years accounting for a most of the new infections, I wonder how many of them are along the lines like me, if I get it, I get it.   No pre-existing conditions, don't smoke, forcing myself to walk the dog daily to get some vitamin D, and O+ blood.  So if I get some symptoms, my instinct would be to focus on staying hydrated and keeping my distance from my family. As such, if it did progress for me, it would likely be too late.

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41 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

 Sounds like Whitmer's hope is with some of the drugs available for use, to treat customers with the idea/hope they don't get to the ICU level.  

It's not Whitmer. The Republicans took her to the Michigan Supreme Court to stop her and the health department from enacting any mask enforcement or closing anything down. This surge is totally on the GOP. She had it contained but they didn't like their "liberties" being taken away.

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23 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

With this hitting a younger group right now, isn't it something like 35-60 years accounting for a most of the new infections, I wonder how many of them are along the lines like me, if I get it, I get it.   No pre-existing conditions, don't smoke, forcing myself to walk the dog daily to get some vitamin D, and O+ blood.  So if I get some symptoms, my instinct would be to focus on staying hydrated and keeping my distance from my family. As such, if it did progress for me, it would likely be too late.

She still has options she can take.

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20 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

It's not Whitmer. The Republicans took her to the Michigan Supreme Court to stop her and the health department from enacting any mask enforcement or closing anything down. This surge is totally on the GOP. She had it contained but they didn't like their "liberties" being taken away.

michigan doesnt have a mask mandate?

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The Health Department still has mandate power.  Big Gretch does not.

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Looks like the pause is going to go on for at least another week.

Regardless of how much we like to slag Nate Silver, I think his points that this decision might cost additional lives lost to COVID as we push back vaccination availability for a few million people, and that this episode might spike vaccine hesitancy among populations we desperately need to be jabbed, are valid.

I won't opine about whether the FDA should or should not have pulled J&J entirely for further study, since I am no more an epidemiologist than Nate Silver, but I think it's worth reiterating that they made the decision to hold up millions of vaccinations based on preventing something that was literally higher than a million to one odds against happening.

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34 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Looks like the pause is going to go on for at least another week.

Regardless of how much we like to slag Nate Silver, I think his points that this decision might cost additional lives lost to COVID as we push back vaccination availability for a few million people, and that this episode might spike vaccine hesitancy among populations we desperately need to be jabbed, are valid.

I won't opine about whether the FDA should or should not have pulled J&J entirely for further study, since I am no more an epidemiologist than Nate Silver, but I think it's worth reiterating that they made the decision to hold up millions of vaccinations based on preventing something that was literally higher than a million to one odds against happening.

This is my take as well.  

I’m not sure why being either an epidemiologist or a data scientist is necessary to determine that 6 out of 7,000,000 is an acceptable number of critical failures.   I can’t think of many things off hand where 99.999% isn’t good enough.  

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Note the part in red.

As for that last part: thanks for supercharging that one, Trump.

1 big thing: Why our brains struggle to analyze risk

Illustration of a brain with a lit wick as if it were a bomb.

 

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

 

The decision to pause the use of Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine — and the furor that now surrounds it — underscores the confounding psychology behind risk assessment.

Why it matters: From vaccines to emerging technologies, the future will force us to make difficult, risk-based choices that our Stone Age brains are ill-equipped to handle, especially in an environment where social trust has evaporated.

Driving the news: The FDA's move on Tuesday to halt J&J vaccinations came after reports that six women out of roughly 7 million people who had received that shot experienced potentially dangerous blood clots, with one dying.

  • On Wednesday, the CDC's vaccine advisers agreed to a pause of at least a week and a half as they review safety data.

  • Based on those numbers alone, the decision may look puzzling.

  • As my Axios colleague Sam Baker reports, common medications like birth control as well as the coronavirus itself carry a much higher risk of blood clots than the extremely rare side effects seen so far with J&J's shot, while any delay in vaccine rollout raises the risk of continuing the deadly pandemic.

Yes, but: We don't evaluate vaccines based on a simplified cost-benefit analysis — not that our brains are great at making those calculations anyway.

  • Virtually unique among medical interventions, vaccines are given to healthy people to prevent disease, which demands a higher level of safety.

  • Because a vaccine for a disease like COVID-19 ultimately needs to be taken by the bulk of the population to effectively stop the pandemic, keeping public trust in their safety and quality is paramount — which is precisely what the FDA's pause is meant to inspire.

1618437347580.png

The catch: Since we naturally tend to evaluate risk on an emotional rather than a mathematical level, there's no guarantee the move will accomplish its aim.

  • Psychological research has shown that under conditions of uncertainty — which definitely includes the pandemic — most people make judgments not off hard numbers, but using mental shortcuts that can be heavily influenced by emotion.

  • Seeing the government stop distribution to investigate apparently very low levels of risk theoretically should help shore up vaccine confidence in the U.S., where 30% of people surveyed in a recent poll said they definitely aren't going to take or will wait and see about getting a COVID-19 vaccine.

  • But in Europe — with the exception of the U.K. — public confidence in the AstraZeneca vaccine plunged after countries temporarily halted its distribution, even though the EU medical regulator said it was safe and effective.

Of note: A pause wouldn't have much effect on Americans' vaccine confidence if they had full trust in their leaders — but a survey earlier this year indicated that trust in every institution has fallen to historic lows.

The big picture: The future will present even more complex questions about risk analysis that we may be ill-equipped to process.

The bottom line: The FDA paused J&J out of an "abundance of caution" — and it was likely correct to do so.

  • But in a pandemic — and in a risky future more generally — it won't always be easy to identify which decision is ultimately more cautious.

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3 hours ago, pfife said:

The Health Department still has mandate power.  Big Gretch does not.

Correct, which she has some power over.  She could also work with the legislation, which is how this whole michigan government setup should work.  The GOP has a law they are looking at which based on our current rates would shut down restaurants right now.  I don't have much faith in our state GOP, but she hasn't even tried to work with them regarding covid.

Additionally, it stated that Whitmer's emergency declaration allowed for only a specific amount of time with one extension.  Whitmer's own administration indicated that they felt they might be able to reissue some orders.  She could state that this current spike is new and constitututes a new order.  Even if taken to court and lost, would have shut us down for a few more days or even weeks.

She absolutely has the power to do more than she is currently doing.  Should she be doing more, IDK.  

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Quote

Michigan Senate Majority Leader Mike Shirkey, R-Clarklake, tweeted his thanks to Whitmer on Wednesday for "resisting the tremendous pressure to lock our state down and trusting Michiganders to do the right thing."

https://www.freep.com/story/news/health/2021/04/14/michigan-covid-shutdown-gretchen-whitmer/7218717002/

That seems to indicate to me he believes Whitmer has the power to shut us down still.  Instead, Whitmer says this.

Quote

"The national experts with whom we consult have said, 'You don't have a policy problem,' " Whitmer said. "Michigan still has some of the strongest protocols in place — capacity restrictions, we've got a mask mandate. Other states have dropped all of these things. We still have them in Michigan, and yet we have high (COVID-19) positivity rates."

Whitmer said a combination of factors — a high prevalence of the spread of the more contagious B.1.1.7 variant, along with Michiganders with pandemic fatigue who no longer wear masks, socially distance and avoid gatherings, and increased mobility — all are contributing to Michigan's worst-in-the-nation coronavirus case rate.

The CDC said to shut down.  Who cares if they felt Whitmer had a good policy, they were simply looking at the numbers.  Also, there is more mobility because 1) some people are vaccinated now and seeing family again and 2) everything is open.   

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38 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

That seems to indicate to me he believes Whitmer has the power to shut us down still.  Instead, Whitmer says this.

Just on general principle, why would you believe anything a MI GOP poll says about Whitmer reflects any connection to reality? Of course now that there might be some blame on the way for things are going south things are suddenly back at  Whitmer's discretion. 

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I now can say I know someone who died of Covid. A truck driver I've known for a couple years that came to my shop.

He passed away this past weekend. 35 years old and seemed healthy. Left behind a wife and two kids. Kinda' shocked me. I mean, I was just talking to the guy a couple weeks back and now he is gone.  So surreal. 

This **** is no joke.

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Seems like it’s all young people dying now, probably because the old people are mostly vaccinated, and the young people are more likely to take chances around other people.

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

Seems like it’s all young people dying now, probably because the old people are mostly vaccinated, and the young people are more likely to take chances around other people.

how many young people have died?

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Just on general principle, why would you believe anything a MI GOP poll says about Whitmer reflects any connection to reality? Of course now that there might be some blame on the way for things are going south things are suddenly back at  Whitmer's discretion. 

If you read what I said, I admitted that I'm not a huge fan of the MI GOP and that I wouldn't be confident they would work with Whitmer in good faith.  That said, just because you don't like the legislature doesn't mean Whitmer shouldn't try to work within the process.  The complaint from the left on Trump was that he didn't understand government and didn't know how it worked.  Whitmer knows exactly how it works, but instead of trying, she has chosen to use politics, getting folks on her side in order to defend her, even as she refuses to try.

Whitmer has the tools to restrict the state further.  The GOP made it more difficult for her, which you'll be grateful for if we ever get a Trump like GOP governor, but she still has tools.  Any retort that this current spike is because the GOP stripped her of all her power and opened up the state to run wild is simply untruthful. If we come out of this with minimal deaths and the economy doesn't take a hit, all the credit goes to Whitmer.  Yet, to me, seems like she realizes she can't shut down and just blame Trump, so she's hedging her bet.  Going to plow forward, hope the vaccines get it under control, and if it gets out of control, allow her partisan followers to blame the MI GOP.

 

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Just on general principle, why would you believe anything a MI GOP poll says about Whitmer reflects any connection to reality? Of course now that there might be some blame on the way for things are going south things are suddenly back at  Whitmer's discretion. 

Additionally just to be clear.  In defending Whitmer on this decision, it's you that agrees with Mike Shirkey. So you're on the same side that believes the insurrection was a hoax.   You should probably cancel yourself for taking such a distasteful position. 😉

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detroitnews.com

Quote

"Students and families traveling across Michigan, to other states or out of the country risk being exposed to and carrying COVID-19 with them," the press release said. "This in turn could fuel outbreaks within their households and the communities where they live or visit."

This was a press release from Whitmer's office earlier this month.  The new director of Michigan's HHS just got back from Alabama.  Great, now we're going to be on the hook for another payout when she's fired now too, because of course, that's common in the private industry and has happened in the public sector as well too.

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31 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

If you read what I said, I admitted that I'm not a huge fan of the MI GOP and that I wouldn't be confident they would work with Whitmer in good faith.  That said, just because you don't like the legislature doesn't mean Whitmer shouldn't try to work within the process.  The complaint from the left on Trump was that he didn't understand government and didn't know how it worked.  Whitmer knows exactly how it works, but instead of trying, she has chosen to use politics, getting folks on her side in order to defend her, even as she refuses to try.

Whitmer has the tools to restrict the state further.  The GOP made it more difficult for her, which you'll be grateful for if we ever get a Trump like GOP governor, but she still has tools.  Any retort that this current spike is because the GOP stripped her of all her power and opened up the state to run wild is simply untruthful. If we come out of this with minimal deaths and the economy doesn't take a hit, all the credit goes to Whitmer.  Yet, to me, seems like she realizes she can't shut down and just blame Trump, so she's hedging her bet.  Going to plow forward, hope the vaccines get it under control, and if it gets out of control, allow her partisan followers to blame the MI GOP.

 

not really, that's a  strawman. All I'm asking you is why you  expect anything Shirkey says in that context to be worth the time to even parse out. I certainly wouldn't. It's like paying attention to a Kellyann or a Huckabee.

as for the breakout, I say the question is whether it is true that public compliance is gone. I don't see it in this county (Washtenaw) but we are always an outlier. If the public is not complying, I would tend to agree that more 'lock down' ing isn't going to make the difference. I don't know if that is true one way or the other though.

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5 hours ago, Hongbit said:

This is my take as well.  

I’m not sure why being either an epidemiologist or a data scientist is necessary to determine that 6 out of 7,000,000 is an acceptable number of critical failures.   I can’t think of many things off hand where 99.999% isn’t good enough.  

The Axios piece Chas shared goes into this, it appears.

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11 hours ago, ewsieg said:

Correct, which she has some power over.  She could also work with the legislation, which is how this whole michigan government setup should work.  The GOP has a law they are looking at which based on our current rates would shut down restaurants right now.  I don't have much faith in our state GOP, but she hasn't even tried to work with them regarding covid.

Additionally, it stated that Whitmer's emergency declaration allowed for only a specific amount of time with one extension.  Whitmer's own administration indicated that they felt they might be able to reissue some orders.  She could state that this current spike is new and constitututes a new order.  Even if taken to court and lost, would have shut us down for a few more days or even weeks.

She absolutely has the power to do more than she is currently doing.  Should she be doing more, IDK.  

Whitmer has treated the legislature exactly how they deserve to be treated.

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