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Coronavirus: Coming to a Neighborhood Near You?


chasfh
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reaching beyond the 70% mark is going to take effort and they have to ask themselves whether the trade off in penetrating that for each segment is worth the time rather than move it down the line and hit the low hanging fruit.  Or a hybrid approach where you allot it to 20/80% of doses.  Fully dosed people, after waiting two weeks can still get it.  I read an article just now.  Not unexpected but also not meant to be alarmist but the more variants are out there and more community spread there is then the more the virus willl break through that % effective rate and it will never go away if 30% of the population is still exposed.  But you need to start focusing on raw numbers now that we've hit the targeted groups.

I spoke a while back about Dr. Scott Gottleib who used to run the FDA and his thoughts that the end of April or early May is when he expects supply to overtake demand very quickly.  That doesn't mean 70% vaccinated but that the "they will come to you" crowd did their part. Now you have to go to the rest because they are either hesitant, unable, or simply don't know how.  

 

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9 minutes ago, Oblong said:

reaching beyond the 70% mark is going to take effort and they have to ask themselves whether the trade off in penetrating that for each segment is worth the time rather than move it down the line and hit the low hanging fruit.  Or a hybrid approach where you allot it to 20/80% of doses.  Fully dosed people, after waiting two weeks can still get it.  I read an article just now.  Not unexpected but also not meant to be alarmist but the more variants are out there and more community spread there is then the more the virus willl break through that % effective rate and it will never go away if 30% of the population is still exposed.  But you need to start focusing on raw numbers now that we've hit the targeted groups.

I spoke a while back about Dr. Scott Gottleib who used to run the FDA and his thoughts that the end of April or early May is when he expects supply to overtake demand very quickly.  That doesn't mean 70% vaccinated but that the "they will come to you" crowd did their part. Now you have to go to the rest because they are either hesitant, unable, or simply don't know how.  

 

Good post.

I read somewhere that, at this point, a lot of the spread is happening between 30-49. And that is an issue as a lot of states aren't allowing these folks to sign up yet (without the caveats we've discussed the past couple of pages or so).

Hard not to come to the conclusion that it needs to be opened up almost universally soon.

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8 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Good post.

I read somewhere that, at this point, a lot of the spread is happening between 30-49. And that is an issue as a lot of states aren't allowing these folks to sign up yet (without the caveats we've discussed the past couple of pages or so).

Hard not to come to the conclusion that it needs to be opened up almost universally soon.

Texas will be offering universal vaccines starting next week.  Now how supplies stand up to demand is an unresolved question.

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2 minutes ago, Melody said:

Texas will be offering universal vaccines starting next week.  Now how supplies stand up to demand is an unresolved question.

If Gottlieb is right, hopefully we will be swimming in vaccine by the end of April

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24 minutes ago, Oblong said:

reaching beyond the 70% mark is going to take effort and they have to ask themselves whether the trade off in penetrating that for each segment is worth the time rather than move it down the line and hit the low hanging fruit.  Or a hybrid approach where you allot it to 20/80% of doses.  Fully dosed people, after waiting two weeks can still get it.  I read an article just now.  Not unexpected but also not meant to be alarmist but the more variants are out there and more community spread there is then the more the virus willl break through that % effective rate and it will never go away if 30% of the population is still exposed.  But you need to start focusing on raw numbers now that we've hit the targeted groups.

I spoke a while back about Dr. Scott Gottleib who used to run the FDA and his thoughts that the end of April or early May is when he expects supply to overtake demand very quickly.  That doesn't mean 70% vaccinated but that the "they will come to you" crowd did their part. Now you have to go to the rest because they are either hesitant, unable, or simply don't know how.  

 

People totally vaccinated can now get covid? More than the 5% chance we already had?

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Just now, mtutiger said:

Good post.

I read somewhere that, at this point, a lot of the spread is happening between 30-49. And that is an issue as a lot of states aren't allowing these folks to sign up yet (without the caveats we've discussed the past couple of pages or so).

Hard not to come to the conclusion that it needs to be opened up almost universally soon.

I would think the decision should remain based on where the fatalities are occurring more than where cases are occurring. If, even with most cases in a younger cohort it's still the older cohort suffering fatalities - I think you need to keep your focus there. If not then you move to where the serious impact is occurring. Of absolutely once supply outruns the number of the older people you can find (which should have pretty much happened by now?), you have to move on for the more practical reason.

You get the impression that even now, health department/state governments are not prepared to pivot their decision making as fast as the virus makes its moves. They want to deliberate and 'roll out' decisions in a kind of process that is just too slow to match events.

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6 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

 

You get the impression that even now, health department/state governments are not prepared to pivot their decision making as fast as the virus makes its moves. They want to deliberate and 'roll out' decisions in a kind of process that is just too slow to match events.

So, you're saying the government operates like Al Avila?  

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51 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

People totally vaccinated can now get covid? More than the 5% chance we already had?

The % they use doesn’t really mean 5 out of 100 will in theory get it. (For a 95% effective vaccine)The % is just the ratio between the control groups. It only means that if you know for sure an equal number of members of each group were exposed. 
 

but the way herd immunity works, real here immunity not the “let everyone get it and sort out the damage after” kind works is lowering the prevalence of the virus in the community and with such a high % still unvaccinated and being reckless then the virus will still spread and  we will see more isolated examples of vax infections.  And you run the risk of a variant overtaking the vaccines. 

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Got my first Moderna dose yesterday morning and the thing is still trying to take me down. Body aches, 100+ fever, chills, nausea, checking all the boxes. I haven't been this "sick" in probably five years or more. Has me worried for the second dose that I know is worse. Annoying for sure, but hopefully tomorrow morning I'll be over the hill.

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34 minutes ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Got my first Moderna dose yesterday morning and the thing is still trying to take me down. Body aches, 100+ fever, chills, nausea, checking all the boxes. I haven't been this "sick" in probably five years or more. Has me worried for the second dose that I know is worse. Annoying for sure, but hopefully tomorrow morning I'll be over the hill.

That really sucks. Had my second Pfizer yesterday and zero effects. Not even a sore arm.

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1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

Good post.

I read somewhere that, at this point, a lot of the spread is happening between 30-49. And that is an issue as a lot of states aren't allowing these folks to sign up yet (without the caveats we've discussed the past couple of pages or so).

Hard not to come to the conclusion that it needs to be opened up almost universally soon.

They can open it up universally soon or sooner, whichever they want. That's the easy part. The hard part would be managing the crush of demand while supplies are still low, which why here in Chicago, it's going to continue to be 65+, approved professions, or grave heath conditions only who will be available for the vaccine even after the rest of the state opens up to 16+ in three weeks.

In the meantime, what's getting to me is all the happy stories of healthy people of all ages getting their vaccines, public spaces being opened up, even stories of the government and media urging people to go and get their shot, as if I could just go and get my shot. But as things stand, I am many weeks, perhaps two months or more, from getting my shot. I can't express enough just how frustrating that is, especially for a man of my age, an age that qualifies me to get a shot today in more states than not.

In the meantime, we get stories like this:

 

and this:

 

As if the whole thing is nothing more than a goddam scam.

It's maddening.

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9 hours ago, chasfh said:

They can open it up universally soon or sooner, whichever they want. That's the easy part. The hard part would be managing the crush of demand while supplies are still low, which why here in Chicago, it's going to continue to be 65+, approved professions, or grave heath conditions only who will be available for the vaccine even after the rest of the state opens up to 16+ in three weeks.

In the meantime, what's getting to me is all the happy stories of healthy people of all ages getting their vaccines, public spaces being opened up, even stories of the government and media urging people to go and get their shot, as if I could just go and get my shot. But as things stand, I am many weeks, perhaps two months or more, from getting my shot. I can't express enough just how frustrating that is, especially for a man of my age, an age that qualifies me to get a shot today in more states than not.

In the meantime, we get stories like this:

 

and this:

 

As if the whole thing is nothing more than a goddam scam.

It's maddening.

Why is Illinois so different?

 

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I suppose if I slipped the right someone a c-note, I could get a shot today. Of course, this being Illinois, if a c-note is insultingly low, they’d take it with a smile and give me a water shot instead, perhaps with a little bonus air as well. 😏

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16 hours ago, tiger337 said:

I think the brunette was Margo Adams, Boggs' mistress.  I am not sure why Boggs' wife would agree to her being in the photo though.  

The reason I posted this photo was because Boggs claimed on TV that he was addicted to sex.  Then he pretended to cry and wipe away tears.  

Yeah, and he does kind of look like a 70's porn start there....AND he has his arms wrapped around 2 females!  lol  I got it.

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11 hours ago, MichiganCardinal said:

Got my first Moderna dose yesterday morning and the thing is still trying to take me down. Body aches, 100+ fever, chills, nausea, checking all the boxes. I haven't been this "sick" in probably five years or more. Has me worried for the second dose that I know is worse. Annoying for sure, but hopefully tomorrow morning I'll be over the hill.

I have a couple friends who kind of live FB the symptoms etc.  They ended up getting back to normal after a couple days.  Hopefully it is quick for you.

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11 hours ago, chasfh said:

They can open it up universally soon or sooner, whichever they want. That's the easy part. The hard part would be managing the crush of demand while supplies are still low, which why here in Chicago, it's going to continue to be 65+, approved professions, or grave heath conditions only who will be available for the vaccine even after the rest of the state opens up to 16+ in three weeks.

In the meantime, what's getting to me is all the happy stories of healthy people of all ages getting their vaccines, public spaces being opened up, even stories of the government and media urging people to go and get their shot, as if I could just go and get my shot. But as things stand, I am many weeks, perhaps two months or more, from getting my shot. I can't express enough just how frustrating that is, especially for a man of my age, an age that qualifies me to get a shot today in more states than not.

In the meantime, we get stories like this:

 

and this:

 

As if the whole thing is nothing more than a goddam scam.

It's maddening.

you forgot the fact that loretto gave the vaccine to a whole bunch of cook county judges who werent eligible too.

and to his favorite jewelers row jewelry store employees.

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Just now, Buddha said:

you forgot the fact that loretto gave the vaccine to a whole bunch of cook county judges who werent eligible too.

and to his favorite jewelers row jewelry store employees.

Because of course.

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1 hour ago, Oblong said:

Why is Illinois so different?

 

why is illinois corrupt?  oh my goodness, let me count the ways!

1) its now a one party state.

2) cook county has always been a corrupt democrat machine county.

3) for decades the politicians had a "see no evil" philosophy when it came to corruption.  whatever party was in power would appoint an attorney general (or us prosecutor) who would look the other way at corruption and that prosecutor would end up getting a nice paying job later on.

that somewhat changed when the republicans appointed Fitzgerald a number of years ago because he is a very weird dude and didnt care about politics.  he's the one that brought down blagoyevich.

trump/rauner amped it up a notch by going after state democratic party kingpin mike madigan and they just brought him down.

but its cook county: pay to play.

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and i share chas's frustration at watching other midwestern states that are actually run well distribute the vaccine while we sit and wait for our corrupt, ridiculous political machinery to move.

and while the state has promised to open up vaccinations by april 1st - which wont happen, the state has promised and failed to deliver before - the city is not included in that opening.  the city says it wont have enough vaccine to do it by then.  

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Is it April 1st? I thought I'd heard April 12th?

Doesn't matter. As you say, they'll probably end up missing the date anyway. And even if they made that date, Chicago will still be shunted off into its own COVID-riddled ghetto while the rest of the state, half of which is populated by red hats who don't even believe the virus is real, lines up to get theirs. Maybe once the suburban and rural preschoolers get theirs, we'll get ours.

But hey, at least the news media are getting their shots. Where would we be without John Kass, after all?

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13 minutes ago, Buddha said:

why is illinois corrupt?  oh my goodness, let me count the ways!

1) its now a one party state.

2) cook county has always been a corrupt democrat machine county.

3) for decades the politicians had a "see no evil" philosophy when it came to corruption.  whatever party was in power would appoint an attorney general (or us prosecutor) who would look the other way at corruption and that prosecutor would end up getting a nice paying job later on.

that somewhat changed when the republicans appointed Fitzgerald a number of years ago because he is a very weird dude and didnt care about politics.  he's the one that brought down blagoyevich.

trump/rauner amped it up a notch by going after state democratic party kingpin mike madigan and they just brought him down.

but its cook county: pay to play.

I remember the Fitzgerald stuff... that's when I was a republican.

So basically it's business as usual then.... they aren't trying a different strategy they're just being Chicago/Illinois.

That sucks. Yet according to the CDC page IL has administered 51,000 doses per 100K (18+), which is better than MI.  that's not people.... vaccinated, just doses.

 

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