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Coronavirus: Coming to a Neighborhood Near You?

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12 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Ohio announced on Friday what the numerical criteria was for ending the COVID health orders. A two week stretch of no more than 50 cases per 100,000 people.

50 is absurd, that is a rate that would still lead to loss of control. Better hope they get their shots done with no delays. 50/million maybe.

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19 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

50 is absurd, that is a rate that would still lead to loss of control. Better hope they get their shots done with no delays. 50/million maybe.

Well, we're about to do the experiment for you.

This is the current regional situation in England and Wales. We're about to send every child back to school on the same day across England, including in the blue bits. Then in five weeks will start to open a bunch of other stuff, pretty much no matter what happens.

We'll see what happens I guess.

Screen Shot 2021-03-07 at 19.12.43.png

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I have this feeling that we are just all getting ready to jump in the water.  
 

What’s the vaccine situation in the UK?

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2 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I have this feeling that we are just all getting ready to jump in the water.  

And unbeknownst to us, someone just peed there?

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Last week we did 350K shots in MI. If we keep that up we will cut it off before the irresponsibility can lead to another November level outbreak, but we are still going to kill people we don't need to. 

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10 minutes ago, Oblong said:

I have this feeling that we are just all getting ready to jump in the water.  
 

What’s the vaccine situation in the UK?

Not bad actually - probably the one thing the government has had any success with is leaving this to the NHS.

55-59 year olds are now being called, although not all 70+ have had two doses yet (the fact that we've left the vaccination to the NHS rather than try and privatise it is helping all of this). The aim is to have all 50 year olds vaccinated with one dose by April 15 iirc.

Right now I think they're at something like a third of people having had one dose.

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34 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

50 is absurd, that is a rate that would still lead to loss of control. Better hope they get their shots done with no delays. 50/million maybe.

I don't know how I feel about the rate, although I think DeWine mentioned the threshold was agreed to by state medical/scientific consultants.  I don't know if other states/countries have tied COVID related measures to active rates.

On one hand, I feel like its good to have a measurable target out there that people can view progress against.

On the other hand, with the different flavors of mutations, maybe there should be other metrics (ie, vaccination rate) used in place of or in concert with the mentioned active case rate?

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3 minutes ago, Casimir said:

I don't know how I feel about the rate, although I think DeWine mentioned the threshold was agreed to by state medical/scientific consultants.  I don't know if other states/countries have tied COVID related measures to active rates.

On one hand, I feel like its good to have a measurable target out there that people can view progress against.

On the other hand, with the different flavors of mutations, maybe there should be other metrics (ie, vaccination rate) used in place of or in concert with the mentioned active case rate?

All along, IHME has rated anything over 10/100K as outbreak potential. As noted, if anything the evidence is that there are more contagious versions of the bug out there than initially.

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4 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

All along, IHME has rated anything over 10/100K as outbreak potential.

Has that number stayed the same now with vaccines as it was before the vaccine?

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9 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Has that number stayed the same now with vaccines as it was before the vaccine?

well that is what the politicians are banking on, but it's a cynical play for votes not to  force the level lower when things were in place and they had the current chance to really squash it. Like I said, it's not going to be another fall 2020 disaster but tell that to the family that loses a loved one in next few weeks that didn't have to.

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7 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

50 is absurd, that is a rate that would still lead to loss of control. Better hope they get their shots done with no delays. 50/million maybe.

50 over a 2 week period, is about 4 per 100,000 per day, if I am reading that right. They've been below 50 per 100,000 per day since mid January, and that number is an outbreak. I don't know that any state has been below 4 per 100,000 per day since testing became adequate.

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7 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

50 is absurd, that is a rate that would still lead to loss of control. Better hope they get their shots done with no delays. 50/million maybe.

Note Ohio will be different than Texas.  It won't be, orders are gone, go burn your mask.  It'll be, orders are gone, remember private businesses can enforce mask rules and it probably would be smart to wear those masks while out in public for the time being.

In terms of 50 out of 100k being absurd, Ohio (based on numbers I just looked up so I don't know if they are slightly behind or not) is about 170 out of 100k currently.  I wouldn't be surprised if the thinking is that by the time they get that down to 50 out of 100k, many more folks will already be vaccinated.  

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17 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

50 over a 2 week period, is about 4 per 100,000 per day, if I am reading that right.

pretty sure it's a 2 week average that needs to be at or below 50 per 100k per day.   Taking a quick look at what they say the numbers are and how many Ohio is showing a day, I believe it's not new cases need to be below 50 per 100k, but on any given day, how many tested positive  for Covid, plus each of those that tested positive before with no symptoms in the last X days, plus those that had symptoms and are now symptom free within the last X days.

So if they say 10 days for no symptoms and another 10 days after symptoms are gone, Fred who tested positive today, George who tested positive 7 days ago, and Paul who tested positive 3 weeks ago, but just stopped with symptoms 4 days ago all count towards that per 100k number.

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10 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

50 over a 2 week period, is about 4 per 100,000 per day, if I am reading that right. They've been below 50 per 100,000 per day since mid January, and that number is an outbreak. I don't know that any state has been below 4 per 100,000 per day since testing became adequate.

For Michigan, after we came out of the 1st wave we got down to under 5/100K (which is just about 500 per day) with a postive test rate under 3%, so it wasn't cases not seen for lack of testing. But it didn't hold long, rising to about 7/100k but holding there through July and August and Sept, which wasn't too bad, but then total loss of control beginning in October/Nov.

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7 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

I wouldn't be surprised if the thinking is that by the time they get that down to 50 out of 100k, many more folks will already be vaccinated.  

I agree that is what they are banking on. I still think it's better politics than public health.

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21 hours ago, Sports_Freak said:

 

20210307_110031.jpg

COVID is good for them politically. Maybe they’re trying to prolong it because of that, since it’s a handy device to divide white people from everyone else, plus they do not want the pandemic to end while the federal government is under Democratic control.

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Got a vaccine appt for Wed, the SO for Tues. Finally will be set for baseball season.

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1 hour ago, chasfh said:

COVID is good for them politically. Maybe they’re trying to prolong it because of that, since it’s a handy device to divide white people from everyone else, plus they do not want the pandemic to end while the federal government is under Democratic control.

I guess I don't understand how its a handy device to divide white people from everyone else.

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14 minutes ago, Casimir said:

I guess I don't understand how its a handy device to divide white people from everyone else.

By blaming Asians for inventing it, by blaming Latinos for crossing the border with it, by blaming African Americans for dying of it, by excepting white people from all this.

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9 minutes ago, chasfh said:

By blaming Asians for inventing it, by blaming Latinos for crossing the border with it, by blaming African Americans for dying of it, by excepting white people from all this.

and by refusing mask mandates they can claim white superiority by not 'living in fear' and 'tyranny'.   Masks are for pansies.  "Murica!

 

 

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13 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

For Michigan, after we came out of the 1st wave we got down to under 5/100K (which is just about 500 per day) with a postive test rate under 3%, so it wasn't cases not seen for lack of testing. But it didn't hold long, rising to about 7/100k but holding there through July and August and Sept, which wasn't too bad, but then total loss of control beginning in October/Nov.

Testing wasn't adequate until June or so.

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18 minutes ago, chasfh said:

By blaming Asians for inventing it, by blaming Latinos for crossing the border with it, by blaming African Americans for dying of it, by excepting white people from all this.

 

7 minutes ago, Oblong said:

and by refusing mask mandates they can claim white superiority by not 'living in fear' and 'tyranny'.   Masks are for pansies.  "Murica!

 

 

Sorry, I guess the coffee ain't kicked in yet.

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The core of all politics in America is racial, and COVID wasn't politicized for nothing.

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1 minute ago, chasfh said:

The core of all politics in America is racial, and COVID wasn't politicized for nothing.

And no effort was made to cover it up the last four years.  And yet, almost every Republican still refuses to admit that there is racism in America.

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2 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

And no effort was made to cover it up the last four years.  And yet, almost every Republican still refuses to admit that there is racism in America.

That's the advantage of being white men: we don't have to think about how our race affects our everyday life. People of color have to think about how their race affects their lives all day, every day.

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