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The 2020 Presidential Race


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6 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

I am not optimistic anyone in the Democratic field is going to be a big winner.  I am expecting another close race in the general election next year.  

I think it'd be smart to expect that.

Having said that, I dont buy the "you gotta nominate _____, or Trump will win" spin. Perhaps there's a range of outcomes depending on the nominee, but I think everyone in the field is *capable* of beating Trump

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7 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I think it'd be smart to expect that.

Having said that, I dont buy the "you gotta nominate _____, or Trump will win" spin. Perhaps there's a range of outcomes depending on the nominee, but I think everyone in the field is *capable* of beating Trump

yeah, they all have shortcomings.  I think he can be beaten simply because he is so unlikable, but it won't be easy to win the electoral vote.  So, far there isn't really anyone who has mass appeal.  

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6 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

yeah, they all have shortcomings.  I think he can be beaten simply because he is so unlikable, but it won't be easy to win the electoral vote.  So, far there isn't really anyone who has mass appeal.  

One of the NYT writers - I think Alexandra Petri - who does mostly satire - wrote a funny bit about how any real candidate can only disappoint when compared to the ideal in your head. It's really the same most of the time when you are 'shopping'. I just ordered a laptop and I had this idea of what I wanted and every actual model available fell short in some combination of ways. But then I stop and realize that every single one was still head and shoulders better than what I am using now and with that realization my enthusiasm comes back. I think that analogy will hold pretty true in the 2020 election.

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16 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

One of the NYT writers - I think Alexandra Petri - who does mostly satire - wrote a funny bit about how any real candidate can only disappoint when compared to the ideal in your head. It's really the same most of the time when you are 'shopping'. I just ordered a laptop and I had this idea of what I wanted and every actual model available fell short in some combination of ways. But then I stop and realize that every single one was still head and shoulders better than what I am using now and with that realization my enthusiasm comes back. I think that analogy will hold pretty true in the 2020 election.

The good thing about elections is all the votes are free.  If I am ordering a new computer, I have to compare different prices and think about whether the improvement over my current computer is worth the cost.  

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Trump will get rolled absent some scandal that sinks the Democratic nominee.

Trump is welcoming and actively encouraging foreign influence. He is also brazenly corrupt and surrounding himself with corrupt, self-serving people. 

I don't think anything can be assumed here. Including him refusing to vacate the seat if he loses, and him intentionally torpedoing the country before he leaves office. 

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48 minutes ago, 313DetroitCity said:

Trump is welcoming and actively encouraging foreign influence. He is also brazenly corrupt and surrounding himself with corrupt, self-serving people. 

I don't think anything can be assumed here. Including him refusing to vacate the seat if he loses, and him intentionally torpedoing the country before he leaves office. 

I am not speaking to how he reacts if / when he loses.  He will not be gracious, he doesn't know how to be.  I am sure he will claim it is a false result.  I have no doubt he will sow discord and violence may break out as a consequence.  If need be, he will be forced from office.

Polling has not show a viable path to victory for him since two or three months after taking office.  He has not / is not growing his base.  If the election were today, and young voters and poc turn out to vote, I don't see how he doesn't lose in a landslide.  Impeachment hearings do not help him.

That stated, we are 12 months away and a lot can change in a year.  And maybe all the polling errors *could* work in his favor paired with his votes being distributed in the most favorable of ways for him.  But those caveats aside, it seems very much the Dumbocrats election to lose from what I can tell. 

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1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said:

Is this from 2016? Because that is what I was saying all of 2016.

Not that hard to see another EC win for Trump in 2020.

His support has dropped 10% since 2016 and if you ran a Monte Carlo simulation on the 2016 election, Trump wins fewer than half the time.

His numbers just are not good.

EDIT: 2020 isn't 2016, just as 2018 wasn't 2016.

A majority of Americans polled support impeaching him.  Think about that statement.

I don't think it is a leap to say if the election were held today and the youth and poc vote turn out he would lose in a landslide.

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Simple math via 3 questions.  
 

How many have been paying attention the last 3 years who didn’t vote for him in 2016, either because they couldn’t (age), voted for someone else, or sat out, would now say “yeah I will vote for him”

How many did vote for him but won’t in 2020?

How many did vote for him but died since?

the last two out weigh the first by 5-1 at least  

it was only 70,000 votes in a fluke dispersal   

 

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On 10/27/2019 at 2:12 PM, mtutiger said:

Please share.

Regardless, calling people 'idiots' is a terrible way to bring them over to your side. And Warren will need Biden supporters should she win the nomination 


I remembered reading somewhere that after one of the debates where Biden had seriously struggled it was polled that one of the reasons he didn't lose much ground may have been the fact that most of his supporters didn't even watch the debates and didn't see how much he struggled. I think I found the poll that it was discussing. Actually this was the link connected to that story.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3637

 

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22 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

But what is Biden's route to  a majority of the delegates? His support is stagnant with what may be a plurality but nothing close to a majority. Even if Warren doesn't get to a straight out majority of the delegates herself, hers plus Bernie's will probably still total enough to keep Biden from getting to the convention with enough to win, and once the horse trading starts, I have a hard time seeing either the Sanders or Warren delegates going to Biden instead of each other.

Don't exactly know that for certain right now, but if he gets through Super Tuesday either first or right in the thick of it, his dynamics will change. You'll see the establishment jump on Biden hard as a moderate is truly what they want to win this race - within the party and within the elite.  Would it change enough to where he can get the majority of delegates? I don't know. I don't know if anyone will. But it could keep it close enough that when the second round begins and super delegates are included, Biden could win the nomination.

One thing is certain. We've been hearing about Biden's eventually fall since about the first debate. It hasn't happened. He's still right there and if his voting block remains strong, he's going nowhere.

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19 hours ago, mtutiger said:

I think it'd be smart to expect that.

Having said that, I dont buy the "you gotta nominate _____, or Trump will win" spin. Perhaps there's a range of outcomes depending on the nominee, but I think everyone in the field is *capable* of beating Trump

As long as the Dem candidate gives people reasons to vote for themselves more than "I'm not Trump." "I'm not Trump" will lose again.

There has to be at least some populist agenda proving that while you are not Trump your policies prove you also care about the majority of Americans. If that doesn't happen, Trump wins easier than last cycle - at least my thoughts.

 

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7 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I am not speaking to how he reacts if / when he loses.  He will not be gracious, he doesn't know how to be.  I am sure he will claim it is a false result.  I have no doubt he will sow discord and violence may break out as a consequence.  If need be, he will be forced from office.

Polling has not show a viable path to victory for him since two or three months after taking office.  He has not / is not growing his base.  If the election were today, and young voters and poc turn out to vote, I don't see how he doesn't lose in a landslide.  Impeachment hearings do not help him.

That stated, we are 12 months away and a lot can change in a year.  And maybe all the polling errors *could* work in his favor paired with his votes being distributed in the most favorable of ways for him.  But those caveats aside, it seems very much the Dumbocrats election to lose from what I can tell. 

And to get the young vote to come out, you have to prove it with your policies - I know, beating a dead horse.

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1 hour ago, DTroppens said:


I remembered reading somewhere that after one of the debates where Biden had seriously struggled it was polled that one of the reasons he didn't lose much ground may have been the fact that most of his supporters didn't even watch the debates and didn't see how much he struggled. I think I found the poll that it was discussing. Actually this was the link connected to that story.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3637

 

Do debates even matter anymore?  Trump sounded like an idiot on every debate question and it didn't hurt him at all.  

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8 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Do debates even matter anymore?  Trump sounded like an idiot on every debate question and it didn't hurt him at all.  

He is more unjustifiably confident and more addled than in 2016, so it will make for some great comedy when he starts riffing about topics (the cyber, triad nukes, Corinthians, inner cities) like it is 1982.

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