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The 2020 Presidential Race


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2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

I'm also amused by the judging of Biden's candidacy (and gaffes) from folks who chalk up Trump's candidacy as a big "**** you" to the system.

There's some cognitive dissonance going on there. Especially since it's clear that Biden isnt the preferred media candidate this cycle (Warren is)

I'd should have the link, but I've lost track, but I think it was the Daily Beast that had a story about how Warren's political development  began in the blogosphere and that during her political rise she made connections to and developed a kind of shared history with many of the people who have become today's mainstream journalists and progressive writers. So despite being a generation older than most of them, she has a supply of capital with them that Biden and Sanders don't.

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2 hours ago, Yoda said:

No dem made you vote for him. 

I don't know where I said I voted for Trump.

 

Those who looked at both parties not supporting them and saw how Clinton was actually to the right of the few policies she expressed did. A large group of people who voted for Obama twice went to Trump.

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15 minutes ago, DTroppens said:

I don't know where I said I voted for Trump.

 

Those who looked at both parties not supporting them and saw how Clinton was actually to the right of the few policies she expressed did. A large group of people who voted for Obama twice went to Trump.

Hillary still got 3 million more votes than both Trump and Sanders. We have to be like Trump and only focus on a base in a handful of states instead of the country at as a whole. 

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5 hours ago, mtutiger said:

This comment is dripping with arrogance and disdain. The kind that helped Trump win in 2016.

If it makes you feel better, his demographic is the 50-plus camp. And those people are usually unwavering and will vote for certain. He doesn't have "enthusiasm" of other candidates when you are talking about volunteering, going to rallies or donating, but they are enthusiastic in terms they will stick with their candidate and vote. The longer this stays a multiple-person race, the better for Biden - just as long as he stays near the top or remains at the top. 

His demise has been declared by many, but with his loyal elder base, if it does happen, it's not happening anytime soon.

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12 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Hillary still got 3 million more votes than both Trump and Sanders. We have to be like Trump and only focus on a base in a handful of states instead of the country at as a whole. 

It would've been nice if Clinton could've come to the key states like Michigan and actually discussed policy that would've supported these states. But the more people hear Clinton, the less they like her and compounding matters even if she did something like that, her legitimacy of those populist comments would be laughable. That's why she didn't come to these states. And some of it may have been ego and arrogance.

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1 minute ago, DTroppens said:

It would've been nice if Clinton could've come to the key states like Michigan and actually discussed policy that would've supported these states. But the more people hear Clinton, the less they like her and compounding matters even if she did something like that, her legitimacy of those populist comments would be laughable. That's why she didn't come to these states. And some of it may have been ego and arrogance.

She came to Michigan. She literally held an event about a mile from where I live. 

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34 minutes ago, DTroppens said:

I don't know where I said I voted for Trump.

 

Those who looked at both parties not supporting them and saw how Clinton was actually to the right of the few policies she expressed did. A large group of people who voted for Obama twice went to Trump.

I don't know if you did. But I think it's a lazy copout for his voters who have flipped. More likely they voted because they liked something about him and are afraid to admit they made a mistake. So they make create the "but the dems..." argument to justify it. Yes, I'm sure that was a factor. But it wasn't the only factor, and it doesn't negate a dumb decision. 

Just my two cents. 

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17 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

She came to Michigan. She literally held an event about a mile from where I live. 

I spoke in extremes and shouldn't have but... 

 

She wasn't here much at all. I think once very early during the general (think Sanders came with her but I could update be wrong on that) and she came very late and did two rallies within the same date after it looked like she may lose the state. 

Michigan was way too important for that lack of attention.  

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Just now, DTroppens said:

She wasn't here much at all. I think once very early during the general (think Sanders came with her but I could update be wrong on that) and she came very late and did two rallies within the same date after it looked like she may lose the state. 

Michigan was way too important for that lack of attention.  

I don't recall Trump being here anymore than Hillary. She was by my house at a small warehouse type place holding a rally. Her campaign office was not far away either. 

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1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

Democrats have won the popular vote every election for the past 30+ years except for one. Apparently, they are doing something right to appeal to the country as a whole. Unfortunately, the electoral college is like the refs of a Packers game and a handful of voters are more important than the rest. 

It's more likely that neither side has strong appeal, but Democrats have been viewed as the lesser of the two evils.  

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4 hours ago, DTroppens said:

If it makes you feel better, his demographic is the 50-plus camp. And those people are usually unwavering and will vote for certain. He doesn't have "enthusiasm" of other candidates when you are talking about volunteering, going to rallies or donating, but they are enthusiastic in terms they will stick with their candidate and vote. The longer this stays a multiple-person race, the better for Biden - just as long as he stays near the top or remains at the top. 

His demise has been declared by many, but with his loyal elder base, if it does happen, it's not happening anytime soon.

But what is Biden's route to  a majority of the delegates? His support is stagnant with what may be a plurality but nothing close to a majority. Even if Warren doesn't get to a straight out majority of the delegates herself, hers plus Bernie's will probably still total enough to keep Biden from getting to the convention with enough to win, and once the horse trading starts, I have a hard time seeing either the Sanders or Warren delegates going to Biden instead of each other.

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

But what is Biden's route to  a majority of the delegates? 

African American and Moderate to Conservative D voters.

There's more of them than you think. And as it stands, I am skeptical that a candidate can win the D nomination without broad support in the AA community.

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3 hours ago, mtutiger said:

African American and Moderate to Conservative D voters.

There's more of them than you think. And as it stands, I am skeptical that a candidate can win the D nomination without broad support in the AA community.

Conservative D voters are the parties  most lukewarm supporters. Are they people who will come out to vote in a primary?

The big thing is that Warren is going to get a ton of delegates out of the early CA primary right out of the gate. That is going to give her base to build from stronger than the other candidates. That will put her in a much different place than Bernie was chasing Hillary after her wins in the South.

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1 minute ago, Gehringer_2 said:

warren is going to get a ton of delegates out of CA right out of the gate. That is going to give her base to build from stronger than the other candidates.

There was a recent poll showing Biden with a lead in California. 

I'm not sure it's clear cut she's going to run up the score there. The state has a good amount of establishment/POC type Dem voters.

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31 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

People underestimate the effect that snobbish elitism from the left has on moderate and center-right voters.

I cringe every time I hear things like that... and while I understand that Trump does similar things (ie. "human scum") and doesn't face the same scrutiny and is held to a lower standard, and that it isnt fair, Dems and Dem voters really need to recognize that these statements can carry consequences 

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