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Directions and Objectives For A Future Mainstream Party

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interesting nytimes analysis of the election that kind of confirms what everyone said about the election right afterward: democrats made huge gains among white collar professionals and republicans made huge gains among blue collar workers.

it will be interesting to see if this shift continues without trump on the ballot.  if so, it signals a major realignment.

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23 minutes ago, Buddha said:

it will be interesting to see if this shift continues without trump on the ballot.  if so, it signals a major realignment.

One thing that I've seen mentioned specific to the Rio Grande Valley is that there was a significant undervote in 2020 on downballot races (ie. people voting Trump and then leaving the rest blank).

Something to keep an eye on as well...

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5 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

One thing that I've seen mentioned specific to the Rio Grande Valley is that there was a significant undervote in 2020 on downballot races (ie. people voting Trump and then leaving the rest blank).

Something to keep an eye on as well...

and will the suburban vote continue to drift blue or go back to red/pink with trump off the ballot?

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15 minutes ago, Buddha said:

and will the suburban vote continue to drift blue or go back to red/pink with trump off the ballot?

Yep, it's a fair Q

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46 minutes ago, Buddha said:

interesting nytimes analysis of the election that kind of confirms what everyone said about the election right afterward: democrats made huge gains among white collar professionals and republicans made huge gains among blue collar workers.

it will be interesting to see if this shift continues without trump on the ballot.  if so, it signals a major realignment.

top o' the head analysis: That blue collar voter is voting personality and the white collar voter is voting policy. Ergo: with Trump gone the blues hold those white collars more easily than the red hold those blue collars. 

The big problem for the Dems is 2022 and the problem with a midterm is that it is hard to actually do anything at all without making more people that voted for you mad than people who didn't vote for you happy. It's been said before but the key for Biden is to stick with a program for the duration of the 117th congress that are all really massively popular initiatives. By the polling, those would be Covid recovery and democracy reform. You can probably add Climate change as well as corporate America is suddenly lining up to give him more cover than I though was possible. Stay away from everything else until after 2022. Not like that is not enough to do anyway. Heck just fixing the executive branch will be a big job well done and also should not be controversial with the public.

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9 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

top o' the head analysis: That blue collar voter is voting personality and the white collar voter is voting policy. Ergo: with Trump gone the blues hold those white collars more easily than the red hold those blue collars. 

The big problem for the Dems is 2022 and the problem with a midterm is that it is hard to actually do anything at all without making more people that voted for you mad than people who didn't vote for you happy. It's been said before but the key for Biden is to stick with a program for the duration of the 117th congress that are all really massively popular initiatives. By the polling, those would be Covid recovery and democracy reform. You can probably add Climate change as well as corporate America is suddenly lining up to give him more cover than I though was possible. Stay away from everything else until after 2022. Not like that is not enough to do anyway. Heck just fixing the executive branch will be a big job well done and also should not be controversial with the public.

This is correct, although COVID presents an opportunity that wouldn't otherwise be there for a President in his first term.

The bigger problem is that, even if Biden is reasonably popular two years in, the districts are being redrawn this cycle and the GOP was pretty successful in most states downballot (with a couple of exceptions), so you'd have to imagine that it'll be tougher to hold on.

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53 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

top o' the head analysis: That blue collar voter is voting personality and the white collar voter is voting policy. Ergo: with Trump gone the blues hold those white collars more easily than the red hold those blue collars. 

The big problem for the Dems is 2022 and the problem with a midterm is that it is hard to actually do anything at all without making more people that voted for you mad than people who didn't vote for you happy. It's been said before but the key for Biden is to stick with a program for the duration of the 117th congress that are all really massively popular initiatives. By the polling, those would be Covid recovery and democracy reform. You can probably add Climate change as well as corporate America is suddenly lining up to give him more cover than I though was possible. Stay away from everything else until after 2022. Not like that is not enough to do anyway. Heck just fixing the executive branch will be a big job well done and also should not be controversial with the public.

i think trump so dominated everything that it is difficult to tell.

that said, as mtu has said before, culture dominates how people vote more than policy decisions.

a lot of voters who didnt vote for trump still view many of his administration's positions favorably.  he poisoned the well with his personality, imo.

i suspect the democrats will continue to take great joy in the republicans having to deal with marjorie green and they will do their best to keep her face in the news as the face of the republican party.  that's going to help them in the suburbs and may help erode some of the recent republican support among latino and black voters.

for republicans, they will do their best to keep aoc (their version of her), "cancel culture", transgender issues, and "blm" in the news to erode democratic support.

aoc running for senate against schumer would do wonders for the gop in many states.  just like san francisco "canceling" abraham lincoln will.

the mid terms should be really interesting.  ohio's senate race will be interesting too in order to see just how far right that state has gone.  i dont think tim ryan stands a chance, but the republican nomination process will be interesting to see who comes out of it.

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do you think the democrats should take action against green?  or force republicans to do it and own it?

has a party done that before?  vote to kick out a member of the minority party from committee assignments?  did that happen to joe mccarthy?

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13 minutes ago, Buddha said:

i think trump so dominated everything that it is difficult to tell.

that said, as mtu has said before, culture dominates how people vote more than policy decisions.

a lot of voters who didnt vote for trump still view many of his administration's positions favorably.  he poisoned the well with his personality, imo.

i suspect the democrats will continue to take great joy in the republicans having to deal with marjorie green and they will do their best to keep her face in the news as the face of the republican party.  that's going to help them in the suburbs and may help erode some of the recent republican support among latino and black voters.

for republicans, they will do their best to keep aoc (their version of her), "cancel culture", transgender issues, and "blm" in the news to erode democratic support.

aoc running for senate against schumer would do wonders for the gop in many states.  just like san francisco "canceling" abraham lincoln will.

the mid terms should be really interesting.  ohio's senate race will be interesting too in order to see just how far right that state has gone.  i dont think tim ryan stands a chance, but the republican nomination process will be interesting to see who comes out of it.

I question how resonant Marjorie Taylor Greene really is with the population as a whole.... specific to Georgia (where Warnock's seat is up in 2022), she's definitely a negative, but I'm not sure that it translates much more beyond there.

I basically agree with most of this, although I doubt AOC running for Senate would do much.... I suspect she'd get rinsed against Schumer, particularly Upstate and on Long Island (which, combined, probably get close to offsetting the NYC vote).

Aside from Ohio, Wisconsin is the most intriguing Senate state in 2022 to me.... The Ds and Rs have traded margin in the Driftless Area and the WoW counties, respectively, when Trump has been on the ballot.... is there any snapback in either region (ala 2018), and if so, to what degree does it benefit either side.

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MTG attempting to appeal to her support from the twice- impeached former President/Russian asset sure seems likely to swing over sympathy from the House that was the site of an insurrection cheered on by that former President.  

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32 minutes ago, Buddha said:

do you think the democrats should take action against green?  or force republicans to do it and own it?

has a party done that before?  vote to kick out a member of the minority party from committee assignments?  did that happen to joe mccarthy?

If it were me, I think the Dems are on reasonable ground refusing to allow her committee seats. OTOH, I would not expel her. Let her district understand that they can vote for whoever they want but that their representation will suffer if they send a rep that talks about shooting the Speaker of the House. As a practical matter I think that at least helps to empower a more sane GOP challenger in the district for the next election.

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12 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I question how resonant Marjorie Taylor Greene really is with the population as a whole.... specific to Georgia (where Warnock's seat is up in 2022), she's definitely a negative, but I'm not sure that it translates much more beyond there.

I basically agree with most of this, although I doubt AOC running for Senate would do much.... I suspect she'd get rinsed against Schumer, particularly Upstate and on Long Island (which, combined, probably get close to offsetting the NYC vote).

Aside from Ohio, Wisconsin is the most intriguing Senate state in 2022 to me.... The Ds and Rs have traded margin in the Driftless Area and the WoW counties, respectively, when Trump has been on the ballot.... is there any snapback in either region (ala 2018), and if so, to what degree does it benefit either side.

i think the democrats are doing their best to make sure everyone has heard of her and anything related to qanon.

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16 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

ohio's senate race will be interesting too in order to see just how far right that state has gone.

I think Ohio is hopeless - I think it was Jordan's Senate seat for the trying, but maybe he is angling for Pelosi's job.

Wisconsin not nearly so much.

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4 minutes ago, Buddha said:

i think the democrats are doing their best to make sure everyone has heard of her and anything related to qanon.

it would be malpractice not to.

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5 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

If it were me, I think the Dems are on reasonable ground refusing to allow her committee seats. OTOH, I would not expel her. Let her district understand that they can vote for whoever they want but that their representation will suffer if they send a rep that talks about shooting the Speaker of the House. As a practical matter I think that at least helps to empower a more sane GOP challenger in the district for the next election.

on the one hand, they certainly do have recourse to get her off committees. on the other hand, i dont like the precedent set (if it truly is a precedent).  

let the republicans do it.  and if they dont do it, use her as a symbol for republicans and make them defend her.

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Just now, Buddha said:

on the one hand, they certainly do have recourse to get her off committees. on the other hand, i dont like the precedent set (if it truly is a precedent).  

let the republicans do it.  and if they dont do it, use her as a symbol for republicans and make them defend her.

I go back and forth on this.... I tend to agree, but not taking action almost has the feel of how the Clinton campaign handled Trump in 2016. 

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Just now, mtutiger said:

I go back and forth on this.... I tend to agree, but not taking action almost has the feel of how the Clinton campaign handled Trump in 2016. 

i can see that.

but if the republicans get control in 2022, get ready for ilhan omar to be kicked off committees.  

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43 minutes ago, Buddha said:

that said, as mtu has said before, culture dominates how people vote more than policy decisions.

 

I don't disagree but think the strength of the correlation is inversely proportional to the information level of the voter. If we assume the white collar voter is the higher information voter ( well, amend that to be higher quality information voter - the right disseminates enough information, it's just mostly worthless! ), then the conclusion would be the Dem voter is more policy driven than the GOP voter. Then again even that misses the nuance of an issue like abortion. You can call that a policy issue but it's become more of a cultural marker issue.

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10 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I think Ohio is hopeless. Wisconsin not nearly so much.

The two states are similar in a lot of ways, but the Southern and SE Parts of Ohio (which are now voting like West Virginia) make it really really difficult for Dem candidates to compete there.

The saving grace in Wisconsin is that profile of voter really does not exist there.... and there's a lot of meat left on the bone in the WoW counties if the suburban trends were to continue. (and that's a big if)

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2 minutes ago, Buddha said:

i can see that.

but if the republicans get control in 2022, get ready for ilhan omar to be kicked off committees.  

I don't really like Omar, so 🤷‍♂️

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My dream solution to all this is that the gerrymandering/redistricting that happens in the future mandates that districts in each state provide a reasonable cross section of voters across the political spectrum to the degree that it is possible.  Set asides for Ds and Rs need to be a thing of the past.   

 

 

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35 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

I don't really like Omar, so 🤷‍♂️

i dont like her either but i dont want republicans to be able to kick her off committees.

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I know I am preaching to the choir but you don’t need to know where the line is to believe one exists.  Saying the things she did crosses it, wherever it is. But like impeachment you need to get it on record. Let them call her a victim. Then keep repeating what she said and make them defend it. Fight the Omar battle when it occurs. 

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And another thought... don’t let fear of setting a precedent guide you.  The GOP doesn’t need precedent.  It’s already as good as done. They will try it if they get back in power regardless of MTG. 

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3 hours ago, Buddha said:

i think the democrats are doing their best to make sure everyone has heard of her and anything related to qanon.

Indeed

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