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2018 Draft Pick Watch

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13 hours ago, kdog said:

I don't think he'll be around when they are good again. But he really obliterated the roster and had the best outcome possible for the future.

He should be around.  They should be much better in three years.  It won't be that long.  At least they have a plan, and a direction.  Now to get some big time bats.

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So, I guess I somewhat understand the concept of the higher in the draft a team is, the more money that they are allowed to spend on the amateur draft.  Is there a financial aspects of the amateur draft for dummies site out there that spells this stuff out in some summarized details?

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On 9/27/2017 at 9:45 AM, theroundsquare said:

Back on Sept. 4, you and I had an exchange about the Tigers wins in September, saying it would be a fun prop bet.  You suggested the over-under would be 6.5. I was taking the under.  So far, looking good!

One more mulligan left.

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47 minutes ago, Casimir said:

So, I guess I somewhat understand the concept of the higher in the draft a team is, the more money that they are allowed to spend on the amateur draft.  Is there a financial aspects of the amateur draft for dummies site out there that spells this stuff out in some summarized details?

I posted earlier in the thread regarding last year's allotment just for the first 2 rounds (the top 10 are what counts), but each spot they move up from 4-1 they gain approximately 550-600K in their draft pool.

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22 hours ago, irvink said:

Olney asks Law if there is a Harper or Stras type in the draft. To no one's surprise, Law says "there really is not and it is very much a high school draft which is probably not what the clubs fighting for the top pick really want to hear..."

I'm sure the Tigers will have the next couple seasons to battle it out for the top pick, so no worries.

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3 hours ago, 4hzglory said:

I posted earlier in the thread regarding last year's allotment just for the first 2 rounds (the top 10 are what counts), but each spot they move up from 4-1 they gain approximately 550-600K in their draft pool.

however, doesn't the draft slots increase as well, meaning we have a greater allotment to be able to afford the slots?  To me, the only advantage to this, if I understand it correctly, is that you draft a player under that slot to allow you to afford other good players later in the draft.  So, you're playing for a lot of good players at the expense of a potential impact player.

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1 minute ago, Tenacious D said:

however, doesn't the draft slots increase as well, meaning we have a greater allotment to be able to afford the slots?  To me, the only advantage to this, if I understand it correctly, is that you draft a player under that slot to allow you to afford other good players later in the draft.  So, you're playing for a lot of good players at the expense of a potential impact player.

Yes, but if you have 3-4 players ranked pretty even, if you take the one at #1 overall that is willing to sign for #2 or #3 overall money you save 500K-1Mil.  From the players perspective, if you don't draft them #1 overall, they aren't going to get #1 overall money anyhow so I would think it's pretty likely to pick up some decent $ if you are in the top couple picks.  Later on, not so much.

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3 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

Yes, but if you have 3-4 players ranked pretty even, if you take the one at #1 overall that is willing to sign for #2 or #3 overall money you save 500K-1Mil.  From the players perspective, if you don't draft them #1 overall, they aren't going to get #1 overall money anyhow so I would think it's pretty likely to pick up some decent $ if you are in the top couple picks.  Later on, not so much.

yes, that was my point, though not well articulated.  Personally, I think we have a lot of good players in our system now--I'd rather spend to get the Kris Bryant-impact type, if they are available.

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2 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

yes, that was my point, though not well articulated.  Personally, I think we have a lot of good players in our system now--I'd rather spend to get the Kris Bryant-impact type, if they are available.

My point is, you still likely can signing them for #2 or #3 overall money instead of #1 overall money if you are picking #1.  If the team with the #1 overall pick doesn't draft them, they aren't getting #1 overall money.  #2 overall money saves the drafting team approximately $500K in their pool.  The player is likely to accept that as that is the most they would get anyhow.  You don't have to draft the 10th best player to save bonus $.  If you have the #1 overall pick, you can probably save that $ with you top rated player

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1 minute ago, 4hzglory said:

My point is, you still likely can signing them for #2 or #3 overall money instead of #1 overall money if you are picking #1.  If the team with the #1 overall pick doesn't draft them, they aren't getting #1 overall money.  #2 overall money saves the drafting team approximately $500K in their pool.  The player is likely to accept that as that is the most they would get anyhow.  You don't have to draft the 10th best player to save bonus $.  If you have the #1 overall pick, you can probably save that $ with you top rated player

Certain players with leverage can still demand a particular bonus based on how they view themselves relative to the other picks. If there is a clear #1 guy but the team with the first pick decides to take a different guy that costs less, and the second pick also goes to someone else, the kid with the high demand can still get what he wants even if he is picked 3rd or 4th or 10th. It’s up to a team to pick him and give him an above slot deal at the expense of their later picks, but it could be worth it if the kid is a star. 

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5 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

My point is, you still likely can signing them for #2 or #3 overall money instead of #1 overall money if you are picking #1.  If the team with the #1 overall pick doesn't draft them, they aren't getting #1 overall money.  #2 overall money saves the drafting team approximately $500K in their pool.  The player is likely to accept that as that is the most they would get anyhow.  You don't have to draft the 10th best player to save bonus $.  If you have the #1 overall pick, you can probably save that $ with you top rated player

are we fighting?  it's not clear to me if I need to break the ALL CAPS out or not?

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4 hours ago, Casimir said:

So, I guess I somewhat understand the concept of the higher in the draft a team is, the more money that they are allowed to spend on the amateur draft.  Is there a financial aspects of the amateur draft for dummies site out there that spells this stuff out in some summarized details?

Each team is allowed a pool of money to spend on the first 10 rounds of the draft.  The team with the worst record drafts first, and the pool that team has is the total of their draft picks.  So, the team with #1 adds up the slot value of 1-1, 2-1, 3-1, etc.  If a team doesn't sign a player at a given draft ;position, that slot value is subtracted from the amount available.  I'm not sure exactly how MLB determines the slot value of each draft position.  Assume it's magic.

If a team signs a player for less money than slot at a given position, that money is available to pay more in later rounds.

After the first 10 rounds, any bonus $100k or less is considered slot.  Above that and the bonus is subtracted from the slot pool.

There is a good discussion of how this can work here.

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BA just put out its list of Top 50 High School MLB draft prospects and a Top 50 for college too.

I was encouraged to see that 4 of the Top 6 HS prospects are position players, starting with Brice Turang at 2 and Nolan Gorman at 3.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2018-high-school-top-50-mlb-draft-prospects/#lBhVjwdzKXESuaBW.99

5 of the top 10 College Players are bats, starting with #2, the 5'7  Nick Madrigal, SS/2B, Oregon State.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/college-top-50-mlb-draft-prospects-2018/#7CZ3ptQJaeJg2WoY.97

BA also had a podcast up yesterday on next year's draft class and an interesting point they made is that it's usually the college class that features the most pop up players.. In large part bc these players are playing much more often and less subject to the harsh weather many HS players are. But also bc the showcase season is over for HS players, so they go back to their hometowns and play against mediocre competition (for the most part). They used Andrew Benintendi as a recent example of a college guy barely on the radar going into the season and was drafted 7th (and might be the first or second best player from the class).

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2 hours ago, apabruce said:

Each team is allowed a pool of money to spend on the first 10 rounds of the draft.  The team with the worst record drafts first, and the pool that team has is the total of their draft picks.  So, the team with #1 adds up the slot value of 1-1, 2-1, 3-1, etc.  If a team doesn't sign a player at a given draft ;position, that slot value is subtracted from the amount available.  I'm not sure exactly how MLB determines the slot value of each draft position.  Assume it's magic.

If a team signs a player for less money than slot at a given position, that money is available to pay more in later rounds.

After the first 10 rounds, any bonus $100k or less is considered slot.  Above that and the bonus is subtracted from the slot pool.

There is a good discussion of how this can work here.

Thanks.

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2 hours ago, apabruce said:

Each team is allowed a pool of money to spend on the first 10 rounds of the draft.  The team with the worst record drafts first, and the pool that team has is the total of their draft picks.  So, the team with #1 adds up the slot value of 1-1, 2-1, 3-1, etc.  If a team doesn't sign a player at a given draft ;position, that slot value is subtracted from the amount available.  I'm not sure exactly how MLB determines the slot value of each draft position.  Assume it's magic.

If a team signs a player for less money than slot at a given position, that money is available to pay more in later rounds.

After the first 10 rounds, any bonus $100k or less is considered slot.  Above that and the bonus is subtracted from the slot pool.

There is a good discussion of how this can work here.

I'm looking to score big on slots too.

maxresdefault.jpg

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28 minutes ago, cruzer1 said:

Watching videos the one who stood out to me was Griffin Conine.

Jeff's kid?  Good bloodlines and a position of need.  Let's hope he crushes it next spring.

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Just now, Tenacious D said:

Jeff's kid?  Good bloodlines and a position of need.  Let's hope he crushes it next spring.

Yes, he's much more physically developed than Jeff ever was.

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We have clinched the third pick. Magic numbers:

Giants 2 (2 vs SD)

Phillies 1 (2 vs Mets)

 

the only way we don’t end up picking at least second is if we finish 2-0 and Phillies finish 0-2.

We can clinch first overall tonight with a loss and a win by the giants. 

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28 minutes ago, Shelton said:

A9471435-97FD-452E-B463-100ABF6621F0.jpeg

This has been interesting to watch... Yes, another 1-3 very high picks (no. 1 or 2 overall and perhaps 3 total in the first 100 or so) may bode well for adding top prospects to the Tigs system and increase their chances of getting better much sooner - and sustaining it.

 

The more true talent in the system the better... Thanks for these posts.

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8 minutes ago, Topliner03 said:

What happens if the Tigers lose Saturday, then get rained out on Sunday? And San Francisco loses both of their remaining games?

They'd have a worse winning percentage .388 to .391

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