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RandyMarsh

2018 Draft Pick Watch

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55 minutes ago, Microline133 said:

 

For the Twins this year, they had Lewis ranked very highly their board, but the decision to draft him at 1-1 was as much or more about managing their bonus pool as it was his talent. By going approximately $1 million under slot for Lewis at 1-1, $400k under slot in the 2nd round, and $75k under slot in the 4th round, that allowed them to go substantially over slot for sliding talents and hard commitments in the 3rd, 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds. That management was a hugely important reason for the Twins to take Lewis 1-1.

Curious what you think of the Tigers management of the draft. They went underslot (and maybe overdrafted?) on several guys so they could sign McMillan. Do you think it worked out as a whole? Faedo and McMillan have gotten off to good starts, but Rivera and Arriera haven't.

Think we got good talent from the top 10 as a whole doing it this way?

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Microline133,  Do you have any thoughts on what will happen with Otani?  Is he going to be a starting pitcher?  I really don't know much about him, but from what I have read, it seems that he would have more value as a pitcher than a hitter.   I'd love to see a two-way player in the majors, but that seems very unlikely. 

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7 hours ago, davidsb said:

Casimir is correct.

Honestly, I don't know why there aren't more posts like this.

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5 hours ago, Microline133 said:

 

For the Twins this year, they had Lewis ranked very highly their board, but the decision to draft him at 1-1 was as much or more about managing their bonus pool as it was his talent. By going approximately $1 million under slot for Lewis at 1-1, $400k under slot in the 2nd round, and $75k under slot in the 4th round, that allowed them to go substantially over slot for sliding talents and hard commitments in the 3rd, 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds. That management was a hugely important reason for the Twins to take Lewis 1-1.

There has to be a ton of pre-draft legwork done to know what guys will sign for and when they may be available. And then doing the math and hoping the guy you want falls.

Seems too risky unless the guys you are choosing from at the top are really close in grades. 

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7 minutes ago, Stanley68 said:

There has to be a ton of pre-draft legwork done to know what guys will sign for and when they may be available. And then doing the math and hoping the guy you want falls.

Seems too risky unless the guys you are choosing from at the top are really close in grades. 

From the rankings types, it really did seem like there was a tier of 5 players last year, any of which could go 1: Lewis, Greene, Gore, Mckay and Wright. And for the first year I can recall, there were no surprises, the consensus top five, all went in the top 5.

Lewis maybe was a tick behind those guys, and perhaps the least likely to go 1-1, but as the top ranked position player and a guy you could save a little money on, I can see taking that gamble. 

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4 hours ago, Casimir said:

Honestly, I don't know why there aren't more posts like this.

You're right.   I'll try to put my thoughts in posts more often.

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22 minutes ago, irvink said:

From the rankings types, it really did seem like there was a tier of 5 players last year, any of which could go 1: Lewis, Greene, Gore, Mckay and Wright. And for the first year I can recall, there were no surprises, the consensus top five, all went in the top 5.

Lewis maybe was a tick behind those guys, and perhaps the least likely to go 1-1, but as the top ranked position player and a guy you could save a little money on, I can see taking that gamble. 

 

The amount of leg work these clubs do with their area guys is remarkable. They know signing numbers or ranges for more guys than you can fathom.

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5 hours ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Curious what you think of the Tigers management of the draft. They went underslot (and maybe overdrafted?) on several guys so they could sign McMillan. Do you think it worked out as a whole? Faedo and McMillan have gotten off to good starts, but Rivera and Arriera haven't.

Think we got good talent from the top 10 as a whole doing it this way?

The Tigers draft in 2017...Not sure we can say Faedo is off to a good start since he hasn't thrown a professional pitch yet. He certainly finished his amateur career with a bang in the CWS, but we won't know anything about his transition to pro ball until last year. Any time a team is able to go under slot it stems from the club "over-drafting" someone, so that shouldn't be considered a knock on Rivera or Arriera. The Tigers deliberately popped them before their consensus round because there was an understanding they didn't expect the money owed that slot. That said, it's a reasonably strategy. I have some questions about McMillan's long-term offensive potential, but the early returns are strong and they may well end up with two high-end talents at the end due to their strategy, while also having a low-ceilng/high floor player in Arriera and a lottery ticket with huge raw in Rivera. That's not a bad pull from the draft.

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4 hours ago, tiger337 said:

Microline133,  Do you have any thoughts on what will happen with Otani?  Is he going to be a starting pitcher?  I really don't know much about him, but from what I have read, it seems that he would have more value as a pitcher than a hitter.   I'd love to see a two-way player in the majors, but that seems very unlikely. 

I'd be surprised if he's not a pitcher in the states. He's an impressive offensive talent in Japan, but I haven't spoken to a scout that projects him to come over here and be Hideki Matsui or something of that ilk at the plate. He's much more likely to be a superstar on the mound than at the plate. Some team may entice him to sign with them for the lower bonus he's going to get (at least low relative to what he'd get if he waited until he was 25 to come over) by offering him a chance to hit in addition to pitching upon his arrival, but long-term he's an arm for me.

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6 hours ago, irvink said:

And how much of this decision was the desire to take a bat over the two high school arms that went 2 and 3?

I think the decision to select Royce Lewis (a position player) was driven more by his willingness to be under slot than the position he plays. Both of the pitchers selected after him were reportedly less likely and/or completely unwilling to go under slot. If one of them had been willing to go under slot, I imagine the Twins may have opted for that player instead of Lewis. I have heard nothing in the industry to suggest they were **** bent on picking a position player, all things being equal.

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Well, now as long as we don’t win more games than the Giants or Phillies, or 2 more than the White Sox, we will have the top pick. We have 1 more game than SF and PHI, but SF ends with a series against SD and PHI against NYM, so our odds are looking better every day.

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It's getting exciting. We are now in line for 2nd pick, half a game up on Philly. Half game behind SF for Number 1, and we have the tie breaker.

Lose all the games.

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Magic number update (tigers have 5 games remaining)

giants 5 (4 games left)

phillies 5 (4 games left)

white sox 4 (5 games left)

 

 

 

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The Tigers are 11-38 over their last 49 games (disclaimer about end points and all that).

Still, that is a .224 rate, which would translate to a 36 win season. 

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23 minutes ago, Shelton said:

The Tigers are 11-38 over their last 49 games (disclaimer about end points and all that).

Still, that is a .224 rate, which would translate to a 36 win season. 

4-21 in September**.  That extrapolates to a 26-136 record.

** - Obviously September has been an extreme extreme.

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58 minutes ago, Casimir said:

4-21 in September**.  That extrapolates to a 26-136 record.

** - Obviously September has been an extreme extreme.

Back on Sept. 4, you and I had an exchange about the Tigers wins in September, saying it would be a fun prop bet.  You suggested the over-under would be 6.5. I was taking the under.  So far, looking good!

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if they lose the next 4 games this month, that is 4-25, a .138 winning % for Sept.

or 4-26 if you include the expected October 2017 loss, .133

in 2003, they went 3-20 in April, .130

or 3-21 if you include the March 2003 loss, .125

wow they're bad 

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On 9/2/2017 at 2:48 PM, RandyMarsh said:

Since we don't have much else to pay attention to this season I figure I make a thread keeping tabs on our current draft position.  I know many don't care about that but I think it is beneficial to have a better pick so I think it is important.  Currently we sit in the 5th spot tied with the A's and .5 behind Cincy for 4th.  We're 5.5 behind the 3rd spot so its going to take some serious losing(which is expected) to get there.   On the flip side we're only a 1.5 "up" on the Braves in the 9th spot so it is tightly clustered.  A few wins could end up costing us 5-6 draft slots, which to me isn't worth it.  Here's a link to the current standings.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/standings/_/group/overall

This was the initial post in this thread. 5.5 back of the third pick on September 2. What an amazing run. 

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The Tigers finished 27.5 games ahead of the Twins last season.

The Twins are 21.0 games ahead of the Tigers this season.

That whopping 48.5 games swing means that for the 3 year period 2015-2017 (less final 5 games), the Twins' combined record is 2 games better than the Tigers.

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