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2018 Draft Pick Watch

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17 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

white sox and phillies both win today.

1.5 ahead of sox, tied with phillies (lose tb). giants playing now, if they win we'd be tied with them and have that tie-breaker.

provisional #1 pick is so close.

Dodgers up 3-0 with Kershaw on the mound, so don't love the Giants chances. A week or so ago, I did not think we'd be picking any higher than 4. Now 3 is feeling realistic, 2 or even 1 is not so far fetched. 

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43 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

white sox and phillies both win today.

1.5 ahead of sox, tied with phillies (lose tb). giants playing now, if they win we'd be tied with them and have that tie-breaker.

provisional #1 pick is so close.

Too bad there is no Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez, or Bryce Harper in this draft (or least I haven't heard about any generational talents in the draft).  How fortunate was Washington to pick #1 two years in row when Harper and Strasburg were obvious number one picks. Going forward shouldn't the Tigers have lots of pool money to sign top international talent--for once!

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4 minutes ago, SeattleMike said:

Too bad there is no Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez, or Bryce Harper in this draft (or least I haven't heard about any generational talents in the draft).  How fortunate was Washington to pick #1 two years in row when Harper and Strasburg were obvious number one picks. Going forward shouldn't the Tigers have lots of pool money to sign top international talent--for once!

No, international bonus pools are allocated by revenues and market size, not standings.

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1 hour ago, irvink said:

Dodgers up 3-0 with Kershaw on the mound, so don't love the Giants chances. A week or so ago, I did not think we'd be picking any higher than 4. Now 3 is feeling realistic, 2 or even 1 is not so far fetched. 

Giants Phillis and White Sox all play tomorrow. We could be in second by the end of the day tomorrow. 

The current 7 game losing streak has put us into the second worse run difference. The padres still still hold the top spot, but we could get there with a couple more blowouts. 

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Does losing and achieving a possible top #3 pick help us overall in the draft?  My knowledge is so limited, but by getting such a high pick next summer does that mean we'll pick a few times in the first round, or have more picks total in the first few rounds?

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51 minutes ago, thefunk said:

Does losing and achieving a possible top #3 pick help us overall in the draft?  My knowledge is so limited, but by getting such a high pick next summer does that mean we'll pick a few times in the first round, or have more picks total in the first few rounds?

Picking 3 is better than 4, 2 better than 3, 1 better than 2. But no, no extra picks. In 2018 draft, there is no clear (right now) #1, but in other years it really made a difference to pick #1.

 

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5 minutes ago, RatkoVarda said:

Picking 3 is better than 4, 2 better than 3, 1 better than 2. But no, no extra picks. In 2018 draft, there is no clear (right now) #1, but in other years it really made a difference to pick #1.

 

Even if there is no obvious pick, the bigger spending pool is benefit enough. 

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1 hour ago, thefunk said:

Does losing and achieving a possible top #3 pick help us overall in the draft?  My knowledge is so limited, but by getting such a high pick next summer does that mean we'll pick a few times in the first round, or have more picks total in the first few rounds?

Why wouldn't they pick #1 if they have the worst record..........because I think that is a real possibility.   

They might actually lose 100.   I can easily see them losing the rest of the way. 

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1 hour ago, Shelton said:

Giants Phillis and White Sox all play tomorrow. We could be in second by the end of the day tomorrow. 

The current 7 game losing streak has put us into the second worse run difference. The padres still still hold the top spot, but -and the  we could get there with a couple more blowouts. -

The September swoon has really done the trick.  At the time of the Verlander trade, the Tigers had the 7th pick.  They were 58-74 and the top pick had a record of 50-83, 8 1/2 games back.  In 24 days they have shaved 7 1/2 games off of that and found themselves with the 3rd pick.

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51 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Why wouldn't they pick #1 if they have the worst record..........because I think that is a real possibility.   

They might actually lose 100.   I can easily see them losing the rest of the way. 

100 losses is darn realistic. I mean, even a blind squirrel can find a nut sometimes, so I suppose it's possible the could catch KC or Minnesota on an off day. But this team is tumbling down the drain fast. Losing out is absolutely realistic. 

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They probably did have to wait another month to trade JV to get a better deal for him, but if both he and Upton were dealt on July 31st, the Tigers would have the worst record in baseball. They easily have the worst roster now given their current pitching staff. It is unfathomably bad after the Fulmer injury. They'll enter next year with the best odds of having the worst record in MLB. I guess Cabrera could turn it around next year to maybe change the calculus a little bit, but I'm not optimistic about him being anything beyond a 120 OPS+ or something close to that.

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9 hours ago, Walewander said:

We have over eight months to the draft - I'm hoping to see a few of the top guys separate themselves from the pack. 

 

I agree--a bit premature to hone in on the top 3-4 players at this point.  Injuries and performances will factor in during the Spring season.  Really hoping that a college hitter emerges and is available to us.

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10 hours ago, Walewander said:

We have over eight months to the draft - I'm hoping to see a few of the top guys separate themselves from the pack. 

 

Supposed to be a good draft at least

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12 hours ago, Scottwood said:

They probably did have to wait another month to trade JV to get a better deal for him, but if both he and Upton were dealt on July 31st, the Tigers would have the worst record in baseball. They easily have the worst roster now given their current pitching staff. It is unfathomably bad after the Fulmer injury. They'll enter next year with the best odds of having the worst record in MLB. I guess Cabrera could turn it around next year to maybe change the calculus a little bit, but I'm not optimistic about him being anything beyond a 120 OPS+ or something close to that.

IDK about worst roster in baseball. I suppose it depends on how they proceed though.

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14 hours ago, Keepleyland2 said:

Even if there is no obvious pick, the bigger spending pool is benefit enough. 

Yep, based on last years bonus allotment for the first 2 rounds alone, moving from 4th to 3rd increased the Tiger's pool by $560,700.  if they move to 2nd they get approximately another $567,200 for the first 2 rounds.  Moving to 1st adds $620,800.  

So if the Giants and Phillies both win 1 more game than the Tigers the rest of the way, (and we don't win more than the White Sox) the Tigers will have increased their draft pool for the 1st 2 rounds by approximately $1,748,700 in the last week. (the actually increase will be more as it goes to the 1st 10 rounds).

That is a very significant plus in a deep draft even if there isn't much separation at the top. 

 

Edited to add:  By comparison, the Tigers total pool in 2017 was $6,520,100.  The allotment for the top pick in the 1st 2 rounds alone is $9,616,800.

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Just took a look at the last 7 drafts to see where the consensus top draft prospect by BA/Pipleine/Law/etc actually went in the draft. And even when there is no Harper/Stras, there usually are one or two guys the experts separate from the pack.

2011 - Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon topped most lists. They went 1 and 6 in the draft. Rendon slipped a bit due to health concerns.

2012 - Buxton was top ranked, he went 2nd. Astros took Correa (who ranked around 6 in the class at 1).

2013 - Mark Appel and Jon Gray topped the lists. They went 1 and 2 in the draft.

2014 - Brady Aiken was 1 on all lists and was picked 1.

2015 - Dansby Swanson and Brendan Rogers topped the lists. They went 1 and 3.

2016 - Jason Groome topped most lists. He fell to 12 in the draft.

2017 - Hunter Greene was the consensus top prospect, he was picked at 2. The top pick, Royce Lewis, was around 5 on most lists. 

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14 hours ago, Scottwood said:

They probably did have to wait another month to trade JV to get a better deal for him, but if both he and Upton were dealt on July 31st, the Tigers would have the worst record in baseball. They easily have the worst roster now given their current pitching staff. It is unfathomably bad after the Fulmer injury.

7.12 ERA and 145 sOPS+ for the pitching staff in September.  

And a near no hitter.

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1 hour ago, irvink said:

 

2014 - Brady Aiken was 1 on all lists and was picked 1.

 

 

I wasn't following the Brady Aiken case at the time. First #1 overall not to sign with the team that drafted him since 1983. What was the deal there - an injury and a signing bonus dispute (from Wiki)? Did the Astros get any compensation when instead the Indians drafted him the next year or are you hooped once you pass the deadline? Was there any fallout or bad publicity for either Aiken or the Astros by not reaching a deal? Could a guy drafted #1 decide not to sign with the Tigers because he doesn't like the city of Detroit or doesn't like the Tigers' record of developing players?

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21 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

I wasn't following the Brady Aiken case at the time. First #1 overall not to sign with the team that drafted him since 1983. What was the deal there - an injury and a signing bonus dispute (from Wiki)? Did the Astros get any compensation when instead the Indians drafted him the next year or are you hooped once you pass the deadline? Was there any fallout or bad publicity for either Aiken or the Astros by not reaching a deal? Could a guy drafted #1 decide not to sign with the Tigers because he doesn't like the city of Detroit or doesn't like the Tigers' record of developing players?

Yes, the Astros got an additional pick right after the 1st overall the next year.  So they had the 2nd overall and the 5th overall pick in 2015.

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40 minutes ago, lordstanley said:

I wasn't following the Brady Aiken case at the time. First #1 overall not to sign with the team that drafted him since 1983. What was the deal there - an injury and a signing bonus dispute (from Wiki)? Did the Astros get any compensation when instead the Indians drafted him the next year or are you hooped once you pass the deadline? Was there any fallout or bad publicity for either Aiken or the Astros by not reaching a deal? Could a guy drafted #1 decide not to sign with the Tigers because he doesn't like the city of Detroit or doesn't like the Tigers' record of developing players?

Lot of things to answer here. 

Brady was taken #1 overall. Then afterwards he was ready to sign for whatever amount, slightly under slot, so they put him through an MRI. He has a shorter UCL which led to concern he'd need Tommy John down the road. So the Astros dropped their offer to next to nothing. Aiken didn't sign and eventually went to have the surgery. The indians took him the next year at #14. 

As a result of him not signing the Astros got the pick after the next year. Since he was taken 1 they had the second pick (that holds true for any first round pick. For example, if the 15th pick doesn't sign the team gets 16 the next year). The Astros then had two top 5 picks in 2015 and took Bregman and Tucker. (edit to add: With those two high picks they also had a crazy pool of money and used it to draft Daz Cameron in the supplemental round)

Remember when I mentioned Aiken ready to sign for under slot earlier? Well as a result of not signing him the Astros lost that money in their total pool to sign players. They were gonna give the extra to a guy they drafted later, but then lost the money so they couldn't sign that guy. 

There was lots of fallout. There were calls of the Astros being cheap. There were calls that they never really wanted to sign him and just wanted the high pick the next year in a better draft. There were calls for a pre-draft combine so teams can get medicals on people before the draft. 

Theoretically, next year, a guy could say he doesn't want to play for Detroit and refuse to sign. While it would be a black eye, we'd have a very high pick the next year (so really you are only delaying prospect development by a year since the guy the next year should be just as good). But, that really doesn't happen in baseball especially since the new slotting system. 

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2 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

Lot of things to answer here. 

Brady was taken #1 overall. Then afterwards he was ready to sign for whatever amount, slightly under slot, so they put him through an MRI. He has a shorter UCL which led to concern he'd need Tommy John down the road. So the Astros dropped their offer to next to nothing. Aiken didn't sign and eventually went to have the surgery. The indians took him the next year at #14. 

As a result of him not signing the Astros got the pick after the next year. Since he was taken 1 they had the second pick (that holds true for any first round pick. For example, if the 15th pick doesn't sign the team gets 16 the next year). The Astros then had two top 5 picks in 2015 and took Bregman and Tucker. 

Remember when I mentioned Aiken ready to sign for under slot earlier? Well as a result of not signing him the Astros lost that money in their total pool to sign players. They were gonna give the extra to a guy they drafted later, but then lost the money so they couldn't sign that guy. 

There was lots of fallout. There were calls of the Astros being cheap. There were calls that they never really wanted to sign him and just wanted the high pick the next year in a better draft. There were calls for a pre-draft combine so teams can get medicals on people before the draft. 

Theoretically next year a guy could say he doesn't want to play for Detroit and refuse to sign. Why it be a black eye we'd have a very high pick the next year (so really you are only delaying prospect development by a year since the guy the next year should be just as good). But, that really doesn't happen in baseball especially since the new slotting system. 

A much more detailed answer.  Thanks!

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Jacob Nix also got screwed in the Aiken debacle...he had agreed to an above-slot deal in a later round and when the Aiken deal fell through and the Astros lost Aiken's portion of the bonus pool, they had to back out of the deal for Nix.

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