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Nastradamus

2017 Offseason and free agency thread

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Not haters, but not exactly reliable. I don't really understand the love PFF gets. I get that their process seems cool, but there are a couple things about them that really bother me:
1) They don't release their raw grades, so there is no way to do an independent analysis on their system
2) The summation of their grades is a worse predictor of team record than DVOA by a significant amount, even worse than Pythagorean point differential. And they are barely better than points scored as a predictor. 
I keep wanting to like PFF, but I really think they are overhyped, and really need to revisit the math of what they do. It's possible their metrics are fine at comparing 1 QB to another QB (or WR to WR, etc), but they take it too far with "roster strength" and other metrics that they have been shown to be poor at determining. 

Interesting post.

I understand why they wouldn't release their raw data and give up their trade secrets, but you are right that it makes their system harder to evaluate. I would guess that their methods change from season to season as well, and that comparing across seasons would be problematic.

The really telling finding is if their grades are not a predictor of win/loss %. It's true, as others have pointed out, that sample sizes are small (especially compared to baseball) and outcomes often close. But if their grading system is anything more than a way to create new content to sell hungry fans and paranoid execs, they ought to at least be able to explain past outcomes.

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Lions are picking up other teams' draft busts...

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But he (Quinn) does seem to be taking the idea of spending time and energy on high draft picks who didn't work some place else. It's not unique only to Bill Belichick, of course, but he's considered the best at it. Last season alone, he traded for a first-round guard, a second-round linebacker and a second-round cornerback. Trading for other teams' busts is a rare proposition because the high salaries carry over, but it's something the Patriots and now the Lions have tried.

 

 

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Lions are picking up other teams' draft busts...
But he (Quinn) does seem to be taking the idea of spending time and energy on high draft picks who didn't work some place else. It's not unique only to Bill Belichick, of course, but he's considered the best at it. Last season alone, he traded for a first-round guard, a second-round linebacker and a second-round cornerback. Trading for other teams' busts is a rare proposition because the high salaries carry over, but it's something the Patriots and now the Lions have tried.
 
 

Good.

For the first time in my life as a Lions fan, I see our coaching staff as a strength rather than a weakness. Someone posted PFF's evaluation of the Lions roster, which had it near the bottom of the league - which I can believe. Assuming this is true, it has required superior coaching (and a legitimate franchise QB, and luck) to turn that inferior talent into a playoff team.

Maybe Greg Robinson and some of these other cast offs are done, but it would not surprise me at all if some of them turn into highly valuable contributors.

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14 hours ago, Jason_R said:

 

Good.

For the first time in my life as a Lions fan, I see our coaching staff as a strength rather than a weakness. Someone posted PFF's evaluation of the Lions roster, which had it near the bottom of the league - which I can believe. Assuming this is true, it has required superior coaching (and a legitimate franchise QB, and luck) to turn that inferior talent into a playoff team.

Maybe Greg Robinson and some of these other cast offs are done, but it would not surprise me at all if some of them turn into highly valuable contributors.

The limited amount of feedback I've been able to watch suggests that, at least with Robinson, the blocking scheme he was in with the Rams was completely counter-productive to his talents.  Add to that he was learning the speed of the league & it seems there may be something to work with.  I'm hopeful. At the very least it's more cost effective, which should help the organization pay more in other areas .. like Stafford.

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The limited amount of feedback I've been able to watch suggests that, at least with Robinson, the blocking scheme he was in with the Rams was completely counter-productive to his talents.  Add to that he was learning the speed of the league & it seems there may be something to work with.  I'm hopeful. At the very least it's more cost effective, which should help the organization pay more in other areas .. like Stafford.

He may end up just being terrible... but pretty much everybody looked terrible on the Rams offense under Jeff Fisher.

In any event, the most important thing for me is that Quinn is so aggressive in filling these voids.

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The fans have faith!

TIME FOR THE DETROIT LIONS TO ROAR

 

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The Green Bay Packers have dominated the NFC North of late with five division titles and a Lombardi Trophy in the last six years.

But there could be a road block in 2017 – at least that’s what listeners and readers of the Talk of Fame Network believe. We asked our followers in last week’s poll who will win the North this season, and the Detroit Lions were the surprising and overwhelming winner with 64 percent of the vote. The Packers were next with 21 percent of the vote, followed by the Minnesota Vikings at 13 percent with the Chicago Bears bringing up the rear at one percent.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Until Rodgers falls off, I personally assume he is enough to carry the Packers to 10+ wins.

32bsDkh.jpg

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On 7/3/2017 at 2:21 PM, T&P_Fan said:

When the Patriots do it, genius, when the Lions do it, roster downgrade. 

I love that the Lions are taking chances on those guys.

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12 hours ago, Buddha said:

I love that the Lions are taking chances on those guys.

I don't know how to react when we agree.  What do I do with my hands?

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10 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

Where do you normally keep your hands?

Like you have to ask.

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I didn't see a Super Bowl in Detroit - CJ

I can understand the return on his investment wasn't enough, so he got out.  Fine.  I just don't understand why athletes don't just keep their mouths shut. He has nothing to gain from any of this, & will now alienate an entire generation of fans.  It makes me sad. 

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6 hours ago, djhutch said:

He has nothing to gain from any of this, & will now alienate an entire generation of fans.  It makes me sad. 

I thought the timing was odd, but I"m guessing he's trying to position himself for a release and joining the Raiders, laying the foundation for why he wouldn't return to the Lions.

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Did fans still hold Calvin in high regard prior to these recent comments? I had almost forgotten about him. He was great, but played for garbage teams. It's not like with Barry. 

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6 hours ago, djhutch said:

I didn't see a Super Bowl in Detroit - CJ

I can understand the return on his investment wasn't enough, so he got out.  Fine.  I just don't understand why athletes don't just keep their mouths shut. He has nothing to gain from any of this, & will now alienate an entire generation of fans.  It makes me sad. 

I heard the quotes on the radio and Valenti blew them all out of proportion inspiring the masses to pick up pitch forks and burning torches.

To me the quotes were pretty consistent to what we had heard. He lost the fire to play, his body was breaking down and he felt to continue playing wasn't worth the risk. The only thing he added was that he didn't see the Lions competing for a super bowl any time soon which was something that contributed to his decision to retire sooner rather then later.

The comment certainly isn't worth all the attention it's getting.

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31 minutes ago, rhino said:

 

The comment certainly isn't worth all the attention it's getting.

And he definitely isn't wrong.

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39 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

I mean, Calvin was a true ATG, I think there's some pride and attachment that comes with that.

All time great lion or all time great NFL player?

He was arguably the best WR in the NFL during his peak years. No question about that. And he had a great career. 

I just don't know if I would call him a generational talent.

That said, there is nothing wrong in holding him in high esteem. I just think the terrible teams he played on kind of saps some of the enthusiasm for him. 

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24 minutes ago, Shelton said:

All time great lion or all time great NFL player?

He was arguably the best WR in the NFL during his peak years. No question about that. And he had a great career. 

I just don't know if I would call him a generational talent.

That said, there is nothing wrong in holding him in high esteem. I just think the terrible teams he played on kind of saps some of the enthusiasm for him. 

the year they got screwed by the refs and lost to dallas was a really good team.  its the nfl, a few breaks and theyre in the super bowl.

calvin's comments strike me as sour grapes.  if he's really mad that the lions wouldnt let him leave, then i have no sympathy for that.  he signed the richest deal for a receiver in nfl history and by the end he wasnt nearly the best receiver in the league.  the lions took care of him.

that being said, i dont have a huge problem with any player saying the lions are a bad organization that isnt going to win anything, thats kind of the truth.

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