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Sydney_Fife

2016 Offseason

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Yeah as really hopefully the team will be at the World Series next year. And that JD missed two months. But the team nonetheless is loaded with a bunch of starters that are very capable.

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I guess I don't understand the assumption that Avila necessarily gets back less value than he gives up if he trades JD. Sure, if all he does is trade him for prospects, but what if he simply trades him for a different type of player or a relief pitcher? Why would anyone assume a priori that their GM is going to get taken in any deal he makes? That almost sounds like an admission that we value him more than he is really worth to other GMs looking at it dispassionately.

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I don't know if this signals a new guy is in charge or not. It could certainly be the case. It could also just be that this is what Avila always planned to do after he signed upton.

Remember, as much as we wanted upton or cespedes last offseason, it really didn't appear that it was going to happen.

And then we ended up getting nothing out of upton for most of the season, lost JD for a big chunk, lost castellanos for a big chunk, got little value from Zimmermann Sanchez and pelfrey, etc. and we still made it to the final day of the season.

So now Avila has an opportunity to cash in on JD, which he wouldn't have right now if upton hadn't signed last offseason.

You can delete JD from the 2017 team, and I don't see how it is a worse team than what we got in 2016.

We had 20.2 war from hitters and 16.8 war from pitchers.

SP got 12.6

RP got 4.2

OF/DH got 4.4

C/IF got 15.8

I think we can still get 4.4 from OF and DH, even if JD is traded.

Again, a team with JD is better than a team without JD. And having him would make us a stronger bet to make the playoffs. But I still think we would be a decent bet to compete if he is gone.

Can we match the production of those other position groups?

I'll use the fangraphs early depth charts just for fun.

Catcher 1.7

First 4.7

Second 3.8

Short 1.9

Third 1.8 (this needed projection of a full season of nick)

Infield total - 13.9

LF 2.5

RF 1 (projecting)

CF 1.7

DH 1.5

OF/DH total - 6.7

RP - 2.7

SP (needs projection)

Verlander 4.5

Fulmer 2.6

Norris 2.4

Boyd 1.8

Zimmermann 2.4

103 innings from "other" 0.5

SP total - 14.2

Total pitching - 16.9

Total hitting - 20.6

That's almost identical to 2016. And it's worth mentioning that the FIPs I used for the non verlander starters were all above 4. I think Norris and fulmer and Zimmermann are good bets to be below 4 next year.

We are very lucky to have acquired fulmer and Norris and Boyd. Making those trades in 2015 is the reason we can even point to 2017 as being a reasonable year of contention. We need to make more trades like that when we have the chance, and JD presents that chance.

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6 minutes ago, Shelton said:

 

We are very lucky to have acquired fulmer and Norris and Boyd. Making those trades in 2015 is the reason we can even point to 2017 as being a reasonable year of contention. We need to make more trades like that when we have the chance, and JD presents that chance.

More often than not, proven player for prospect trades don't always work that well.  I think the team getting the prospects usually does worse (although their may be more upside in their favor).  

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Id just like to add that I don't get where the skepticism of Avila comes from.

Yeah the Pelfrey, Aviles and Lowe signings were bad but every GM makes those. And as bad as Pelfrey was he was giving us innings before he got hurt, which is essentially what you want for a 5th starter.

As far as trades go I thought he did well with Maybin, Krod and Wilson.  Wilson struggled down the stretch but relievers are volatile and it was a small sample. He still has plus stuff and could be valuable next year.

Also he was DD's right hand man for years, we have no idea how much input he had on all those great DD moves.  For all we know Avila could have been the one to identify the players.  

Basically what I'm getting at is until he shows otherwise I'm going to have confidence in Al. Hes been around the game a long time, seems to have an open mind on things and worked under one of the best.

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14 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I guess I don't understand the assumption that Avila necessarily gets back less value than he gives up if he trades JD. Sure, if all he does is trade him for prospects, but what if he simply trades him for a different type of player or a relief pitcher? Why would anyone assume a priori that their GM is going to get taken in any deal he makes? That almost sounds like an admission that we value him more than he is really worth to other GMs looking at it dispassionately.

I wouldn't assume it.  It's that when you trade proven talent for unproven talent, there is a greater chance of losing the deal.  You already know what the proven talent can do, and you don't know if the unproven talent will get there.  Also, teams that trade proven talent are often forced to do so because of budget restrictions and thus they lose leverage because of it.  

As for trading proven talent for proven talent, that doesn't seem to happen so much anymore. I do love those types of deals though and wish they were still common.

  

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I think that if a team is on the borderline of being a contender, trading one of their best players (presumably) for prospects and then (also I'm assuming) not signing anyone of note, will probably make them non contenders.

If they could trade JD for MLB players, or sign free agents, then I wouldn't see a reason to trade him in the first place, so I think those are reasonable assumptions.

I think it's really difficult to project with a high degree of certainty that a team is a "borderline" contender. The error bars are so big, that I think if you are within the range of playoff teams, the variance inherent in a 162 game is going to outweigh the loss of a single 3 win player. I also think it's fair to assume they could patch something together to put a 1 win player into his spot.

Of course, there is always a baseline. On opening day a team projected to win 86 games is going to have a higher chance than a team projected to win 84, but I don't think it's *that* much higher.

When you add +/- 5 wins to those projections, we are talking about the difference between a 81-91 win team and a 79-89 win team. That's a lot of overlap.

I'm not sure what the projection of the present team is for next season. I didn't add up those WARs I posted above. I think someone mentioned 87 or 88 wins.

I think a team projected to win 87 games can afford to make a deal that drops the projection to 85 games if it helps future teams be able to able to get to a similar level and stay within their means.

This is all very fuzzy stuff. My overall point is that I think losing one player does not make such a strong difference between in/out of the playoffs.

I fully agree that it decreases the chances, it's just the exact degree that I disagree with.

For reference, prior to 2016, the projected 86 win cardinals had a 45% chance at the playoffs, and the 88 win giants had a 60% chance at the playoffs. But even the 83 win pirates were a 30% chance. And the 90 win nationals were a 70% chance.

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4 hours ago, Hart said:

Red Sox are a natural fit for a Verlander trade. If you can get Bradley or Benintendi strait up for JV, do you do it?

Absolutely

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More often than not, proven player for prospect trades don't always work that well.  I think the team getting the prospects usually does worse (although their may be more upside in their favor).  

It depends on how you look at it. I recall seeing trades described as trading a contract for another contract.

If you trade a player with a single year left on his deal, how good do the prospects need to be for it to have worked out? I think a lot depends on how well the team does without the proven player and whether that player would have likely changed the outcome.

Whether or not you ended up needing the player you lost is as much of a crapshoot as prospects are.

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I guess I don't understand the assumption that Avila necessarily gets back less value than he gives up if he trades JD. Sure, if all he does is trade him for prospects, but what if he simply trades him for a different type of player or a relief pitcher? Why would anyone assume a priori that their GM is going to get taken in any deal he makes? That almost sounds like an admission that we value him more than he is really worth to other GMs looking at it dispassionately.

Well I am assuming the motivation is to save money, in which case he will be traded for prospects. I assume it won't be a good deal as he 'only' has 1 year left and other teams will know the Tigers have to cut costs

It's just depressing to me that the franchise is basically saying 'we're never going to win anything with Verlander and Cabrera'

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2 hours ago, tiger337 said:

More often than not, proven player for prospect trades don't always work that well.  I think the team getting the prospects usually does worse (although their may be more upside in their favor).  

I would think a team acquiring prospects is in more of a position to gamble, a team dealing prospects wants more of a sure thing.

So as you said, if you're going by W/L, proven talent will win. But the teams getting prospects would generally get higher payouts if they win.

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 move JD for a package like Shelby Miller and David Peralta, and save $5 million in the process. JD would hit 35 HRs in AZ, and Miller needs a change of scenery.

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5 hours ago, cruzer1 said:

Talent should be the biggest consideration what they bring back in trades,  No matter how long the player(s) need to spend in the minors.  There are ways to keep the players under control longer.  The Tigers need to start looking long term, and I think they are starting to do that now.

Generally, if you are trading for talent more than a year away from the majors, you are trading for a player in A ball or lower.  That gets for tricky because of the high bust rate of even the top prospects at those levels.  Not sure I would be willing to move Kinsler or JV for one of those players.  Maybe JD at the deadline since we will lose him anyways.  

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25 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

 move JD for a package like Shelby Miller and David Peralta, and save $5 million in the process. JD would hit 35 HRs in AZ, and Miller needs a change of scenery.

This is interesting because Peralta was almost an equal value to JD before the season.  If I am the Tigers, I think I would bite on this.  If I am Arizona, I would seriously have to consider this because I agree, Miller needs a change of scenery and he is not going to turn it around there.  Tigers would be buying low on both players, which can be seen as a plus and minus I guess.  

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Not sure if Arizona is in a position to be adding a 1 year player like JD.

Yankees giants and Astros could be a fit for JD.

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2 hours ago, Shelton said:

It depends on how you look at it. I recall seeing trades described as trading a contract for another contract.

If you trade a player with a single year left on his deal, how good do the prospects need to be for it to have worked out?

Not that much from the GM's perspective.  From the perspective of a fan, who is used to seeing his team pay to retain star players, you are trading away several years of JD for some unproven prospects. So, the fans of low budget teams really can't win in a deal like that.  Luckily the Tigers have been a high budget team so we have not experienced that much.  

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

Not that much from the GM's perspective.  From the perspective of a fan, who is used to seeing his team pay to retain star players, you are trading away several years of JD for some unproven prospects. So, the fans of low budget teams really can't win in a deal like that.  Luckily the Tigers have been a high budget team so we have not experienced that much.  

Luck = an owner that's probably spent hundreds of millions more than an average owner on payroll.

It's nice being an fan and just saying gib gib gib and your team's owner gibs gibs gibs but realistically that's not an attitude that can last unless your an annoying fan of the Red Sox, Yankees, etc.

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

Not that much from the GM's perspective.  From the perspective of a fan, who is used to seeing his team pay to retain star players, you are trading away several years of JD for some unproven prospects. So, the fans of low budget teams really can't win in a deal like that.  Luckily the Tigers have been a high budget team so we have not experienced that much.  

two at the most isn't it?

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11 hours ago, ballmich said:

I read the comment that I responded to as, 50 more starts from Fulmer, Norris and Boyd.  And Zimmermann pitching better.  Not 50 more from all four of those SP.  Maybe the comment I responded to could be read both ways I guess.

I'm sorry if I misread your comment too.  It was not my intent.  And I agree with you that there will certainly need to be a 6th starter when one of the top 5 need 2-4 weeks to recover from from some strain or pull.

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I thought I would share this, I was curious to see what happened with the Tigers for 2016 for the season.

By Season Half
Split W L RS RA WP
First Half 46 43 426 427 .517
Second Half 40 32 324 294 .556

This is really interesting to me that the Tigers scored 102 more runs the first half (25% more runs) than they did the second half of the season.  How much did the Tigers really miss Castellanos (injured August 6th) and JD Martinez (June 16th).

What is also interesting is that the Tigers allowed 32% fewer runs in the second half of the season than they did in the first half.
 

Overall
Split W L RS RA WP
Overall 86 75 750 721 .534
Home/Road
Split W L RS RA WP
Home 45 35 381 357 .563
Road 41 40 369 364 .506
Month by Month
Split W L RS RA WP
April 13 10 109 93 .565
May 11 17 121 156 .393
June 17 11 154 135 .607
July 16 10 119 101 .615
August 15 13 114 108 .536
September 14 12 130 122 .538
October 0 2 3 6 .000

 

The Tigers had two losing months (May and October) but May was the killer when they went 11 and 17.

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21 minutes ago, STLTiger69 said:

I thought I would share this, I was curious to see what happened with the Tigers for 2016 for the season.

By Season Half
Split W L RS RA WP
First Half 46 43 426 427 .517
Second Half 40 32 324 294 .556

This is really interesting to me that the Tigers scored 102 more runs the first half (25% more runs) than they did the second half of the season.  How much did the Tigers really miss Castellanos (injured August 6th) and JD Martinez (June 16th).

What is also interesting is that the Tigers allowed 32% fewer runs in the second half of the season than they did in the first half.
 

Overall
Split W L RS RA WP
Overall 86 75 750 721 .534
Home/Road
Split W L RS RA WP
Home 45 35 381 357 .563
Road 41 40 369 364 .506
Month by Month
Split W L RS RA WP
April 13 10 109 93 .565
May 11 17 121 156 .393
June 17 11 154 135 .607
July 16 10 119 101 .615
August 15 13 114 108 .536
September 14 12 130 122 .538
October 0 2 3 6 .000

 

The Tigers had two losing months (May and October) but May was the killer when they went 11 and 17.

Sanchez lost 4 games in May before they pulled him from the rotation. Lowe lost two before they pulled him from his 'role'. That's the difference between 11-17 and 17-11. Sanchez had been signaling in 48 pt font all last year that he was trouble-esp with a manager that wouldn't pull him early. They should have known just looking at the radar gun Lowe had no business working games in doubt until he had proved he was capable. I think the Tigers were way too slow to act on both these guys when there was ample reason not to give either so much rope.

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8 hours ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Remember with Anibal tho that his buyout is $5M, so it's basically a 1/$21M contract with a $11M option. You'd probably have to include $15M, IMO.

Pelfrey is tradeable, altho the return would be little and a few million would needed to be added. If nothing else he throws hard still and should be healthy.

I've seen many worse pitchers than Anibal get more than 1/6

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8 hours ago, cruzer1 said:

The Angels don't have much to offer, but if they would take him and salary, I would listen.

Yah, I don't need anything back of substance

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When Avila signed JD for the two arbitration years  I would think he got a good idea during the negotiations what it would take to sign him long term and obviously he decided then it was too much. Perhaps that led them to sign Upton depending on when Avila determined JD was not long for Detroit. Trading him now should allow us to get abetter return than July 2017 since the obtaining team can recoup a comp pick if not retain him. 

I trust "Trader Al" more than "buyer Al" to make a good deal. Maybe its for a highly regarded young center fielder or shortstop among others or maybe a current player like a Cole Calhoun of the Angels plus prospects.

Agree we keep Miggy and Verlander and only trade Kinsler if its a BIG take.

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Just for fun, the 2015 Tigers

By Season Half
Split W L RS RA WP
First Half 44 44 398 413 .500
Second Half 30 43 291 390 .411


2016 Tigers

 

By Season Half
Split W L RS RA WP
First Half 46 43 426 427 .517
Second Half 40 32 324 294 .556

 

 

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