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Sydney_Fife

2016 Offseason

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48 minutes ago, Hart said:

I think it would be fairly easy to trade Verlander if the asking price is fair.  I don't think you can ask for an A grade prospect for a high salaried player in his 30's.  Two B level prospects though would be fair though.  Might be able to get an A-/B+ like Fulmer if we are lucky.  But obviously, if the Mets knew Fulmer would have so much success so soon, they would not have traded him for a pending free agent.   

Cabrera might be harder to trade because his contract is more cumbersome long term and he is much more of a fit for the American League.  But given that it is Miguel Cabrera, I think we could get value back for him despite the contract.  

Thank goodness we are going in a different direction.  I am sick of watching this core fail year after year.  It is clear we are not built for winning championships anymore.  

You would get a lot more than that for Verlander. More than you got for Price at least.  You have to remember that Verlander's contract won't be looked at as a negative, and could be argued as a positive

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5 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

You would get a lot more than that for Verlander. More than you got for Price at least. 

just by the numbers, fangraphs puts JV's win value at something pver $40 million - way more than his salary even as high as it is. I think we could get a lot back for him, but as I stated before, a star pitcher has big $ value in attendance, maybe even more so to a team that isn't winning too much and that is before you even consider the public good will aspect. I do think unless JV expresses an interest in leaving (which we might never know about), he would be hard for the org to pull the trigger on. Of course they listened pretty hard to the idea of trading Yzerman, so who really knows? 

In the end they didn't move Y, my gut says they don't trade JV. but that's just my take.

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3 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Yeah giving 50 some extra starts to Fulmer, Norris, Boyd and hopefully a better Zimm could offset our potential losses.

Of course our margin for error would be that much smaller but  we could improve our future without completely punting on 2017.

Well, to nit pick but that would be 35-36 starts for each of Fulmer, Norris and Boyd which we know won't happen. Also, it's pretty rare that you get through a season without missing significant starts in the rotation.  It's one thing to say lets get full workloads from JV, Fulmer, Norris and Boyd and a better season from Zimmermann... but it's another all together to realize that.  2006 was probably the healthiest rotation we have had in recent memory, and even then we only had the four SP pitch a full season.  But clearly if we can get a good number more healthy starts from our top five SP in 2017 than 2016, we should benefit from that.

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14 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

Minor league not of interest for West Michiganders and Floridians: Andrew Graham promoted to manager of Lakeland, Mike Rabelo now manager of Whitecaps.

Catchers do like to become managers, it seems.

Edited by diaspora04
embarrassing typo

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7 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

just by the numbers, fangraphs puts JV's win value at something pver $40 million - way more than his salary even as high as it is. I think we could get a lot back for him, but as I stated before, a star pitcher has big $ value in attendance, maybe even more so to a team that isn't winning too much and that is before you even consider the public good will aspect. I do think unless JV expresses an interest in leaving (which we might never know about), he would be hard for the org to pull the trigger on. Of course they listened pretty hard to the idea of trading Yzerman, so who really knows? 

In the end they didn't move Y, my gut says they don't trade JV. but that's just my take.

I agree they won't trade him, but the FA pitching market is bare, pitchers have been going for a premium and aces don't hit the market a ton. JV could easily be seen as the final piece for someone. He'd bring more than 2 B prospects, that's for sure. Or you pay the man, surely. 

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2 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

I agree they won't trade him, but the FA pitching market is bare, pitchers have been going for a premium and aces don't hit the market a ton. JV could easily be seen as the final piece for someone. He'd bring more than 2 B prospects, that's for sure. Or you pay the man, surely. 

Of course, just as a matter of history,  neither of the last two hurlers to throw a no-hitter for the Tigers finished their careers here either. (Morris/Bunning)

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5 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Of course, just as a matter of history,  neither of the last two hurlers to throw a no-hitter for the Tigers finished their careers here either. (Morris/Bunning)

Trammell, Sweet Lou.

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1 hour ago, Hart said:

I think it would be fairly easy to trade Verlander if the asking price is fair.  I don't think you can ask for an A grade prospect for a high salaried player in his 30's.  Two B level prospects though would be fair though.  Might be able to get an A-/B+ like Fulmer if we are lucky.  But obviously, if the Mets knew Fulmer would have so much success so soon, they would not have traded him for a pending free agent.   

I can't see any possible scenario where you trade Verlander for a couple of B level prospects this winter. He had a Cy Young level season, and has been pretty incredible dating back to mid-2015.  He simlpy shows no signs of slowing down yet and has given every indication that he is going to be a power pitcher in the mold of Clemens and Ryan, into his late 30's.  I find it pretty incredible that some think we are looking to trade him. But if we were, I'd expect a team to pay up handsomely for him and if they had concerns about his 34-36 aged seasons, then I'd expect there wouldn't be much of a conversation about him to start with.  

JV is only under contract for three more seasons... with the 4th option guaranteed with a top 5 Cy Young finish in 2019. It's not that brutal of a contract, as it maybe once looked in 2014.  In fact, I think it's a great contract for any team seriously interested in acquiring a Top 20 MLB starting pitcher.  It's long enough to control him for a good number of years, but not so big of a contract that it would sink a franchise if he is injured and never pitches again. 

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37 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

You would get a lot more than that for Verlander. More than you got for Price at least.  You have to remember that Verlander's contract won't be looked at as a negative, and could be argued as a positive

He's also 33 years old and was bad in 2014, and subpar for most of 2013 and 2015.  

The biggest reason he won't command too much more than that though is teams are just not trading their top cost controlled prospects.  We were able to get Norris for Price because his stock had declined a decent amount in the year prior to us trading for him.  That might be our best to maximizing Verlander's value. 

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23 minutes ago, Hart said:

He's also 33 years old and was bad in 2014, and subpar for most of 2013 and 2015.  

The biggest reason he won't command too much more than that though is teams are just not trading their top cost controlled prospects.  We were able to get Norris for Price because his stock had declined a decent amount in the year prior to us trading for him.  That might be our best to maximizing Verlander's value. 

We can maximize his value by keeping him on the bloody team.

He was clearly dealing with injuries/rehab in 2014 and the first half of 2015. He's been a top 3 pitcher in the AL the past year (Kluber, Sale) and a half and might win the CY.

If someone wants to give us a couple B prospects for him they can **** right off. I need two A prospects to even think about it.

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Verlander isn't going anywhere.  We won't do it, and he wouldn't agree.  This is a team whose season went down to the final game of the season, not a cellar dweller.

next topic, please.

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1 hour ago, ballmich said:

 

1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

just by the numbers, fangraphs puts JV's win value at something pver $40 million - way more than his salary even as high as it is.

Sounds like the Tigers should go out and make a trade to get this JV fella....

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50 minutes ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

We can maximize his value by keeping him on the bloody team.

He was clearly dealing with injuries/rehab in 2014 and the first half of 2015. He's been a top 3 pitcher in the AL the past year (Kluber, Sale) and a half and might win the CY.

If someone wants to give us a couple B prospects for him they can **** right off. I need two A prospects to even think about it.

B level prospects are not junk.  Fulmer was a B grade prospect for us going into the season.  You can't expect a team to give up a Urias, Moncada, or Giolito for a 33 year old pitcher.  If the Tigers got even one of those guys in an offer, they should take it instantly.  

I would not have said this 6 months ago but I actually would rather keep Verlander at this point unless we get blown away by an offer.  Even if we cut payroll and retool, I think this team can compete for a playoff spot next year and pitching is what you need in the playoffs. 

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1 hour ago, ballmich said:

I can't see any possible scenario where you trade Verlander for a couple of B level prospects this winter. He had a Cy Young level season, and has been pretty incredible dating back to mid-2015.  He simlpy shows no signs of slowing down yet and has given every indication that he is going to be a power pitcher in the mold of Clemens and Ryan, into his late 30's.  I find it pretty incredible that some think we are looking to trade him. But if we were, I'd expect a team to pay up handsomely for him and if they had concerns about his 34-36 aged seasons, then I'd expect there wouldn't be much of a conversation about him to start with.  

JV is only under contract for three more seasons... with the 4th option guaranteed with a top 5 Cy Young finish in 2019. It's not that brutal of a contract, as it maybe once looked in 2014.  In fact, I think it's a great contract for any team seriously interested in acquiring a Top 20 MLB starting pitcher.  It's long enough to control him for a good number of years, but not so big of a contract that it would sink a franchise if he is injured and never pitches again. 

I agree with most of this.  I think the trade talk has ramped up because of what Avila said this week.  It is only natural Verlander would be discussed.  His contract does look a heck of a lot better now than it did even a year ago after that strong finish to the 2015 season.  I expect him to be good going forward but pitching is always volatile, especially aged pitching, so I do think you have to shop him this winter to see what he would bring back.  

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1 hour ago, Hart said:

He's also 33 years old and was bad in 2014, and subpar for most of 2013 and 2015.  

The biggest reason he won't command too much more than that though is teams are just not trading their top cost controlled prospects.  We were able to get Norris for Price because his stock had declined a decent amount in the year prior to us trading for him.  That might be our best to maximizing Verlander's value. 

Teams aren't trading their top prospect for pitching? Freakin' Jeff Samardzjia brought back Addison Russell once and Marcus Semien another time. 

Verlander was worth 5 and 3 wins in his subpar seasons. The team trading for him will take that even if its not perfectly ideal. 

I'm not trying to talk you into trading for him, I just think its very clear that there's a market for his services that is above B level prospects. 

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2 hours ago, ballmich said:

Well, to nit pick but that would be 35-36 starts for each of Fulmer, Norris and Boyd which we know won't happen. Also, it's pretty rare that you get through a season without missing significant starts in the rotation.  It's one thing to say lets get full workloads from JV, Fulmer, Norris and Boyd and a better season from Zimmermann... but it's another all together to realize that.  2006 was probably the healthiest rotation we have had in recent memory, and even then we only had the four SP pitch a full season.  But clearly if we can get a good number more healthy starts from our top five SP in 2017 than 2016, we should benefit from that.

Not to nit pick either, but.... 

Verlander had 34 games started for the Tigers in 2016.

Zimmerman 19 starts for the Tigers + 5  starts in the minors = 24 total games started

Fulmer 29 starts majors +3 minors = 32 total games started

Boyd 18 starts ML +11 in the minors = 29 total games started

Norris 13 starts in Detroit, +17 in the minors = 30 games started

Just these Tigers starters accounted for minor league games started totaled 36 games.

The concept is for 2017 that Boyd, Norris, Fulmer and Zimmerman would be helping to take care of the 48 starts that went to Pelfrey and Sanchez instead.  With just the work load Boyd, Norris, Fulmer and Zimmerman had in 2016, they would have covered 36 of those 48 major league starts instead.  And if you add a healthy Zimmerman (I can dream right?) that might mean another 6-10 games started for 2017 instead of using Sanchez or Pelfrey??

I also don't think asking Boyd, Norris, or Fulmer to start 30 games for the Tigers in 2017 at the major league level is that much of a stretch from where they were just last year....

 

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18 minutes ago, Hart said:

B level prospects are not junk.  Fulmer was a B grade prospect for us going into the season.  You can't expect a team to give up a Urias, Moncada, or Giolito for a 33 year old pitcher.  If the Tigers got even one of those guys in an offer, they should take it instantly.  

I would not have said this 6 months ago but I actually would rather keep Verlander at this point unless we get blown away by an offer.  Even if we cut payroll and retool, I think this team can compete for a playoff spot next year and pitching is what you need in the playoffs. 

The Nats offered Giolito for a reliever. 

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1 minute ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I wonder if the Tigers could get Matt Stafford in exchange for Justin Verlander.

The Mets would probably give Tim Tebow for Verlander,....

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1 minute ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I wonder if the Tigers could get Matt Stafford in exchange for Justin Verlander.

I did say 2 years ago that he'd bring 3 first rounders.....

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20 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

The Nats offered Giolito for a reliever. 

This year?  I would be shocked if that actually happened.  

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26 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

Teams aren't trading their top prospect for pitching? Freakin' Jeff Samardzjia brought back Addison Russell once and Marcus Semien another time. 

Verlander was worth 5 and 3 wins in his subpar seasons. The team trading for him will take that even if its not perfectly ideal. 

I'm not trying to talk you into trading for him, I just think its very clear that there's a market for his services that is above B level prospects. 

I don't think Semien was ever a top prospect.  Regardless, there are always exceptions.  If we can get a Russell type talent, we should.  I would be shocked if it happens. 

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2 hours ago, Who is the Drizzle? said:

We can maximize his value by keeping him on the bloody team.

He was clearly dealing with injuries/rehab in 2014 and the first half of 2015. He's been a top 3 pitcher in the AL the past year (Kluber, Sale) and a half and might win the CY.

If someone wants to give us a couple B prospects for him they can **** right off. I need two A prospects to even think about it.

Agreed 100%.

I can understand (if not always agree with) cold, hard-headed, dispassionate, don't-care-who-we-have-on-the-team-cause-it's-all-about-roster-construction-and-organizational-depth-and-financial-flexibility-so-trade-our-best-players-for-prospects-NOW mentality....but how that translates to quick-trade-JV-for-2-"B"-prospects (whatever a "B" prospect is supposed to be) is beyond me.

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I think it's going to be tough to trade the Verlander/Miggy duo unless the Tigers throw in major dollars and get a major haul of prospects coming our way.  Hopefully the Tigers want to acquire the most talented players possible, so throwing in money would entice the big boys (NY/Bos/LA/Tex/Hou) with top systems to trade some of their young top talent.  I worked out trades in my head that would work, such as Miggy to the Yankees for a package of Sheffield/Torres/Frazier/Bird (we might even throw in JD, and a hefty sum to offset.  The Yanks might even be interested in Kinsler,  I could see the Rangers making a run at Miggy, although the Tigers might have to take some salary back in that deal, but I would definitely be interested in Joey Gallo among an array of their loaded young stud pitching prospects, such as Yohander Mendez (who is in AAA at age 21).  This might be an exciting winter, and I'm hoping the Tigers are able to pull off some major heists, similar to what the Yankees did at the trading deadline.

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I can also see the Red Sox make a big run at Verlander.  Seems like a natural fit to me.  DD has never been shy about trading top prospects to get the player/pitcher he wants, and I can imagine he would put Verlander on the top of his list this winter.

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