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Yoda

2015 Off-season thread

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I've heard growing rumors of the Astros being a player for Cespedes.

I would keep an eye on Jake Marisnick. He's young, an outstanding defender (statcast was glowing about him), with serviceable speed. He hasn't hit much in the Majors yet but did in the minors as a Marlins prospect. Yes, he may not sound any better than Collins or Maybin at this point but I think that there's more potential there than with what we have now. He is already scaled out in Houston and if they do add Cespedes his cost could be for a song. Just an off the wall suggestion.

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I've heard growing rumors of the Astros being a player for Cespedes.

I would keep an eye on Jake Marisnick. He's young, an outstanding defender (statcast was glowing about him), with serviceable speed. He hasn't hit much in the Majors yet but did in the minors as a Marlins prospect. Yes, he may not sound any better than Collins or Maybin at this point but I think that there's more potential there than with what we have now. He is already scaled out in Houston and if they do add Cespedes his cost could be for a song. Just an off the wall suggestion.

Also, Preston Tucker. He's a future Hall of Famer. Just ask Brad.

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Yeah... I'm not into signing Cespedes or Upton either. I'd prefer a secondary option.

Fowler or... I'd be fine with either Blackmon (preferred) or Dickerson.

They might be better off spending a little more to acquire someone that isn't split heavy. Blackmon and Dickerson have noticeable splits vs RHP/LHPs and home/road. The Tigers don't have enough roster spots for platoons.

Cespedes is pretty darn even across the splits. I still don't like the lower OBP.

Upton is noticeably better vs LHPs, but still above .800 vs RHPs.

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Cespedes not costing a draft pick of any kind is nice. He'd make us formidable.

I think it was mentioned somewhere around here before. Signing Upton costs a 3rd. I'd be fine with that.

Signing Upton to a one season deal with his reentry into the market next season swaps a 2016 3rd for a 2017 2nd or a 2016 3rd for a 2017 1st if he plays like Upton and the Tigers extend a QO. That's not a bad scenario either.

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They might be better off spending a little more to acquire someone that isn't split heavy. Blackmon and Dickerson have noticeable splits vs RHP/LHPs and home/road. The Tigers don't have enough roster spots for platoons.

Cespedes is pretty darn even across the splits. I still don't like the lower OBP.

Upton is noticeably better vs LHPs, but still above .800 vs RHPs.

Splits don't matter if a player is playing full-time. The overall number is what counts. Splits only matter when it's a player whose overall numbers aren't good enough to start.

I also think road splits of guys from Colorado matter less. Are the numbers inflated because he plays at Coors? Or are the road numbers hurt more because the players are used playing in thinner air? I think it you put most of them in a lower elevation for 81 games they would get used to that and probably hit just as well, and their home/road splits would even out a bit.

Edited by Yoda

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Splits don't matter if a player is playing full-time. The overall number is what counts. Splits only matter when it's a player whose overall numbers aren't good enough to start.

I also think road splits of guys from Colorado matter less. Are the numbers inflated because he plays at Coors? Or are the road numbers hurt more because the players are used playing in thinner air? I think it you put most of them in a lower elevation for 81 games they would get used to that and probably hit just as well.

Dickerson hits below .700 OPS vs LHPs. He's a platoon hitter.

Blackmon isn't as poor vs LHPs (.729) as I thought he was.

I still think that if Ilitch is flush with money, cash on a short term deal for a full time LF is the way to go.

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I think Blackmon is a full-time player.

Also, here's some good info on players leaving Coors from 2014.

When Position Players Get Away from Coors Field | FanGraphs Baseball

I looked for players who batted at least 250 times in consecutive seasons, and who spent the first of those seasons with the Rockies. I then grouped them by where they spent the second seasons, with the groups being “Rockies” and “not-Rockies”. Of the pool, 92 players stayed with the Rockies for both years. Meanwhile, 28 players moved on between seasons. I excluded guys who were traded from the Rockies during the second year, but I kept guys who were traded from the Rockies between years.

Let’s have a good time, now, with the data. We’ll start with the guys who stayed as Rockies, so as to build suspense while establishing something of an approximate control.

Year 1

.370 wOBA

109 wRC+

2.5 WAR/600

Year 2

.363 wOBA

105 wRC+

2.1 WAR/600

More or less identical numbers, with hints of a very slight overall average decline. Now let’s look at the guys who left the Rockies between seasons. How much did they end up missing Coors Field?

Year 1

.336 wOBA

87 wRC+

1.1 WAR/600

Year 2

.319 wOBA

92 wRC+

1.7 WAR/600

The players, on average, lost some points of wOBA, but then we’d expect that, and wRC+ corrects for that, and we actually see a wRC+ improvement. Same goes for full-season WAR. These players survived just fine. Obviously, there were guys who struggled, like Cirillo and Olivo, but then you have, say, Andres Galarraga. Or Matt Holliday. Chris Iannetta was the same hitter in Colorado and in Los Angeles. Seth Smith didn’t lose very much. And this data doesn’t include Larry Walker, who the Rockies traded in the middle of 2004. Walker hit well in St. Louis for a year and a half before he had to hang up his cleats.

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I've heard growing rumors of the Astros being a player for Cespedes.

I would keep an eye on Jake Marisnick. He's young, an outstanding defender (statcast was glowing about him), with serviceable speed. He hasn't hit much in the Majors yet but did in the minors as a Marlins prospect. Yes, he may not sound any better than Collins or Maybin at this point but I think that there's more potential there than with what we have now. He is already scaled out in Houston and if they do add Cespedes his cost could be for a song. Just an off the wall suggestion.

If the 'Stros wind up with Cespedes, I agree that we ought to see what they would want for Marisnick. He's kind of a Brent Clevlen type...good fielding, some pop. Might not pan out but more upside than Collins IMO.

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Cost-controlled.

And I don't think the prospect cost would be outrageous. Secondary prospects, methinks...

I can't picture that happening, but if they want to give us one of those guys for secondary prospect it should be done yesterday

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Splits don't matter if a player is playing full-time. ...

To some degree, but they matter in the playoffs in a short series if your team can't hit XHP and you end up against a team with extra XHPs. In 2006 we would have had a much better shot against the Mets than against the Cards as we killed LHP that year, which helped us get the WS, but helped do us in against the Cards. An unbalanced team is always at more risk for a bad match-up in must win situations. Guys with bad splits give good opposing BPs too many good options.

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True, but in the context of needing to pick up one player to play LF full time, I don't think it matters so much. It's better to focus on overall production.

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Who hates him? We just think that he's really bad at his job. ;^)

I've been wondering about that. I don't think Tony Paul is great but he seems ok enough...why does he get criticized so heavily on this site?

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I think Cespedes is likely to be dramatically overpaid and a huge disappointment, however, he would definitely make the Tigers a lot better in the short term. Tough call. We're probably boned long term anyway, so why not

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I've been wondering about that. I don't think Tony Paul is great but he seems ok enough...why does he get criticized so heavily on this site?

Because, according to people smarter than you and me, "he's a hack!"

I don't think he's the second coming of Thomas Boswell or anything, but he seems to have some decent sources, and I think most of his commentary on social media makes sense, if nothing else.

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I've been wondering about that. I don't think Tony Paul is great but he seems ok enough...why does he get criticized so heavily on this site?

He is often quite childish, and pulls stuff like Lee pointed out earlier. Hedges his bets so that he can go on about how he was right about things. His petulance rubs some here the wrong way. I don't have a very strong opinion about it, it has just become a bit.

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I've been wondering about that. I don't think Tony Paul is great but he seems ok enough...why does he get criticized so heavily on this site?

Sometimes he is OK, but he is very amateurish. He pats himself on the back a lot for news he didn't break. Even a couple of writers have called him on that.

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Because, according to people smarter than you and me, "he's a hack!"

I don't think he's the second coming of Thomas Boswell or anything, but he seems to have some decent sources, and I think most of his commentary on social media makes sense, if nothing else.

Speaking of bits, this is tiresome.

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I think Cespedes is likely to be dramatically overpaid and a huge disappointment, however, he would definitely make the Tigers a lot better in the short term. Tough call. We're probably boned long term anyway, so why not

I'm not sure about him being overpaid. If it's a 5 year deal I wouldn't think that--at a minimum he should be Torii Hunter at the plate with non-terrible defense at the end of the contract, which is around a 2 WAR player. If he starts out closer to 4 WAR than 3 I think the contract will be fair overall. If he can come close to repeating last year, it'll be a relative bargain.

Now if it's 6/$150M he was originally going for, that's a different story.

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Jim Bowden apparently he forgot that he's not the GM of the Reds anymore and suggested the Tigers should trade Fullmer for Jay Bruce. It's scary to think that he was a GM multiple times

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I'm not sure about him being overpaid. If it's a 5 year deal I wouldn't think that--at a minimum he should be Torii Hunter at the plate with non-terrible defense at the end of the contract, which is around a 2 WAR player. If he starts out closer to 4 WAR than 3 I think the contract will be fair overall. If he can come close to repeating last year, it'll be a relative bargain.

Now if it's 6/$150M he was originally going for, that's a different story.

I'm operating under the assumption that he'll still get a big payday. Obviously if it ends up a short term deal or 6/90 or something then go hog wild. Hard to imagine he won't be overpaid based on his 2nd half of the season though.

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