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2015 Off-season thread


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To be clear this is how I see it and I don't have a problem with it.

That written, it is somewhat risky because I think that approach is a higher ceiling and a lower floor approach, the lower floor being that Mike doesn't open up the checkbook in the end.

OTOH, if you truly believe they can't make the post-season absent the higher ceiling outcome, then it really isn't much of a choice from Avila's perspective. Whether you win 83 or 85 but out of the post-season is meaningless.

It's arguable, but I think they had more issues with their staff, than they did with their position players going into next year. The only spot I question is the need for the $ they spent on Pelfrey, but with Sanchez, Norris, Boyd/Fullmer/Greene, and even Verlander being far from sure things, he gives a significant amount of security. I think as constructed they should reasonably be able to get to 87-90 wins. If Miggy stays healthy and Victor and Sanchez bounce back I can see them getting into the low 90's. If those 3 are like last year, I could see them down to 81-85. Add one of the top 4 LF options and I think the range goes to 85-95 wins depending on the above factors

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It's arguable, but I think they had more issues with their staff, than they did with their position players going into next year.

To be fair, I believe you were advocating trading Kinsler for Andrew Miller, so it is pretty clear to me where your preferences lie WRT relief pitching and positional players.

I disagree with that calculus, but it is a matter of opinion.

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I can assure you Al will spend every dollar he's given. No reason not to.

I guess it would depend whether he is given a hardline budget for the entire year or just one budget for free agency/trading before the season and then another one during the season. Say Illitch says, "You can spend $200M on salaries this year." Then if AA spends $200M before the season starts, he can't trade for anyone at the deadline, unless Illitch raises the budget mid-season (which he may well do).

But without knowing how it's framed, it's hard to say.

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To be fair, I believe you were advocating trading Kinsler for Andrew Miller, so it is pretty clear to me where your preferences lie WRT relief pitching and positional players.

I disagree with that calculus, but it is a matter of opinion.

I only felt that way if we had acquired a reasonable replacement for Kinsler. I greatly prefer the route that was taken.

To add, no way do I do the trade if Machado is our fall-back for Kinsler.

Edited by 4hzglory
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Surely he is given a cost target to hold for the season and can request more on a case by case basis.

I would think so too, but I'd be curious sometime to hear the inner workings of an MLB budget process. Of course it probably varies owner by owner. I just have no idea what parameters Illitch gives AA. And even if he knows he "can" go back and request more later, who knows whether he'll always get Mr. I to sign off on it, or to what extent. Without knowing a ton, I'd suspect he's going to hold back a little bit for later, just in case.

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Wouldn't it be a guy not on the 40-man? De La Rosa?

I think it could be either. Milwaukee didn't want to use up a roster spot for the player, but Detroit didn't necessarily need to protect him. In the case the player the Brewers wanted was taken in the Rule 5, there could have been an alternative player. If I remember correctly, Detroit was also potentially getting a PTBNL. That might be contingent on which player the Brewers get.

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I don't know if it is fair to criticize him for not convincing Ilitch to increase the budget. In my experience I think there is only so much one man can do to convince another man to spend more of his $$$.

I do, however, think it would be a fair to question if his priorities were correct if he is budget limited. In other words, I would have made getting an upgrade in LF as a higher priority versus acquiring 3 RP, or a back end starter for that matter.

He's the GM and the Vice President. Ilitch hired him to make the 2015 team into a championship team, and part of that is presenting scenarios to Mike that get them to that spot.

I think it's fair to criticize him for not getting an extra 20 million when they are already spending 180.

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Wouldn't it be a guy not on the 40-man? De La Rosa?

If it was a guy they wanted but only if he wasn't selected, then sure.

I was thinking it was a guy on the 40 that the Brewers didn't want to be carrying so they would have more room to make a rule 5 pick.

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He's the GM and the Vice President. Ilitch hired him to make the 2015 team into a championship team, and part of that is presenting scenarios to Mike that get them to that spot.

I think it's fair to criticize him for not getting an extra 20 million when they are already spending 180.

I guess what I struggle with is I have no reason to think Avila didn't lay out the scenarios well or objectively.

As such, if he is stuck at $180M, my assumption is Mike set a hard limit at 180 because reasons, as opposed to the alternative that Al did not present it to him or didn't present it well / effectively.

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Really would love to see them add another decent arm. Not as much as I'd love to see a big hitter tho.

I'd rather sign one of the big 4 and forget about extending JD. Just enjoy having two studs in the corners for the next 2 years and hope an internal option is ready to step up in 2018, or that Avila can find the next JD, rather than give him 100 mil and go with a scrub platoon in 2016.

@JonHeymanCBS 2h2 hours ago

Folks around baseball would not be surprised to see tigers make late run at big hitter if 1's left. Current focus: pen

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I guess what I struggle with is I have no reason to think Avila didn't lay out the scenarios well or objectively.

As such, if he is stuck at $180M, my assumption is Mike set a hard limit at 180 because reasons, as opposed to the alternative that Al did not present it to him or didn't present it well / effectively.

And I'm saying if ilitch gave him that hard limit given all the offseason needs and the current money committed that he didn't do a good enough job laying out his case.

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I would think so too, but I'd be curious sometime to hear the inner workings of an MLB budget process. Of course it probably varies owner by owner. I just have no idea what parameters Illitch gives AA. And even if he knows he "can" go back and request more later, who knows whether he'll always get Mr. I to sign off on it, or to what extent. Without knowing a ton, I'd suspect he's going to hold back a little bit for later, just in case.

I suppose I see no good reason for an owner to run it any differently than saying to his/her GM that you have x amount of payroll and both understand that if there are developments in the future that merit re-evaluating the budget, there will be a re-evaluation at that time.

From the GM's perspective, there is very little gained by keeping money back to make a later trade. There is no guarantee a trade that makes sense but requires x amount of additional pay-roll will manifest itself. I would go so far as to say such a trade is unlikely to manifest itself.

If you end up barely missing the post-season, the owner isn't going to view not spending the $5M or $10 you 'saved' as a positive. Also, if the team makes the post-season on a reduced pay-roll, it probably only means your payroll will be cut to that level for the next season. So the reward doesn't warrant the risk in most cases, I'd imagine.

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Really would love to see them add another decent arm. Not as much as I'd love to see a big hitter tho.

I'd rather sign one of the big 4 and forget about extending JD. Just enjoy having two studs in the corners for the next 2 years and hope an internal option is ready to step up in 2018, or that Avila can find the next JD, rather than give him 100 mil and go with a scrub platoon in 2016.

@JonHeymanCBS 2h2 hours ago

Folks around baseball would not be surprised to see tigers make late run at big hitter if 1's left. Current focus: pen

I wouldn't mind adding a guy like Tommy Hunter. Not sure what his asking price will be.

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