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2015 Off-season thread

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And the final iteration of Lowe's contract. Kenny Rosenthal says it's 2 year with $11 million in guarantees. Not $13 Million, not $6.5 million.

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As of today, according to the fangraphs depth charts page, the tigers are projected to get 19 war from position players and 11.5 war from pitchers, which is ninth worst overall in baseball.

The position player value is 15th overall. That's not a terrible number to be at going into the season, especially if you think Victor will exceed his projection of 1.0.

The pitching appears to be a concern but I think it's just something you have to live with at this point because there isn't much that can be done at this point. Adding another reliever isn't going to make much of a difference.

The top three starters are projected to combine for 7 war.

Norris is only at 1.1.

These spots will make or break the season.

Verlander was worth 6.8 and 4.9 in 2012-13. His 2.3 projection makes sense after his last two years, but it isn't hard to envision him putting up a number closer to 4.

Sanchez was worth 6 in 2013 and 3 over 2/3 of a season in 2014. You could see him being close to 3 or even 3.5 instead of near 2 as he is projected.

Zimmermann has been above 3 every year and averaged about 3.5 since 2011. But his decline from 5.3 to 3.0 over the last two years has his projection at only 2.5. You could see a 3.5 this season.

If the big three combine for 11 instead of 7, that makes a big difference. If Norris puts up a 2 instead of 1, that also helps. I don't think any of that is unrealistic or overly optimistic.

Now the pitching is giving you 16.5 instead of 11.5 and the overall war is up to 35.5 instead of 30.5. And you could probably add a win to the position players to account for Victor being better.

36.5 would out the Tigers at 13th overall and in thick of the AL central race.

Of course, other teams could probably point to similar adjustments. But it does seem like the Tigers were particularly snake bit last year. You don't go from division favorites to last place without a lot of things going wrong.

The only spot left where they could make a significant move is replacing Collins 350 PAs of 0.3 war with a legit LF. It seems like such an obvious and easy move to make. Even though it will cost money, there is so much value given where they project to be. And if things with the pitchers pan out they will be sitting in a very good position.

They could consider trading Sanchez, pelfrey, and/or kinsler in the offseason to pare down the payroll if necessary.

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As of today, according to the fangraphs depth charts page, the tigers are projected to get 19 war from position players and 11.5 war from pitchers, which is ninth worst overall in baseball.

The position player value is 15th overall. That's not a terrible number to be at going into the season, especially if you think Victor will exceed his projection of 1.0.

The pitching appears to be a concern but I think it's just something you have to live with at this point because there isn't much that can be done at this point. Adding another reliever isn't going to make much of a difference.

The top three starters are projected to combine for 7 war.

Norris is only at 1.1.

These spots will make or break the season.

Verlander was worth 6.8 and 4.9 in 2012-13. His 2.3 projection makes sense after his last two years, but it isn't hard to envision him putting up a number closer to 4.

Sanchez was worth 6 in 2013 and 3 over 2/3 of a season in 2014. You could see him being close to 3 or even 3.5 instead of near 2 as he is projected.

Zimmermann has been above 3 every year and averaged about 3.5 since 2011. But his decline from 5.3 to 3.0 over the last two years has his projection at only 2.5. You could see a 3.5 this season.

If the big three combine for 11 instead of 7, that makes a big difference. If Norris puts up a 2 instead of 1, that also helps. I don't think any of that is unrealistic or overly optimistic.

Now the pitching is giving you 16.5 instead of 11.5 and the overall war is up to 35.5 instead of 30.5. And you could probably add a win to the position players to account for Victor being better.

36.5 would out the Tigers at 13th overall and in thick of the AL central race.

Of course, other teams could probably point to similar adjustments. But it does seem like the Tigers were particularly snake bit last year. You don't go from division favorites to last place without a lot of things going wrong.

The only spot left where they could make a significant move is replacing Collins 350 PAs of 0.3 war with a legit LF. It seems like such an obvious and easy move to make. Even though it will cost money, there is so much value given where they project to be. And if things with the pitchers pan out they will be sitting in a very good position.

They could consider trading Sanchez, pelfrey, and/or kinsler in the offseason to pare down the payroll if necessary.

I also don't see JD Martinez as a 2.5 win player since he's averaged 4.5 his last two years.

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I'm usually Mr. Pessimism on the Tigers, but those projections do seem ridiculously negative.

The only explanation I can think of is that they dropped a ton of guys across the board to try to account for the team's injury risk?

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The Padres are paying down $17 million of Gyorko's remaining $32 million.

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I'm usually Mr. Pessimism on the Tigers, but those projections do seem ridiculously negative.

The only explanation I can think of is that they dropped a ton of guys across the board to try to account for the team's injury risk?

The problem is they regress everybody to the mean so much. That gets you closer to being right on more players. However, you end up with nobody in baseball having a great year and hardly any team winning 90+ games which is an unrealistic result. I'm not sure how to fix that without getting subjective.

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Why would any decent player sign with that mess of a team. First of all, the stadium is a total dump. Secondly, you don't know who your teammates are going to be month-to-month. That "genius" in the GM's chair there traded Josh Donaldson because he didn't like him. I don't get that. The team, the stadium and the city are a dump. Heck, for all we know the team could be located in Portland in a few years.

Eh, the city of Oakland is getting a lot better lately. SF rents have gotten to a level of absurdity that's impossible to comprehend, so all the new development these days is going on in Oakland.

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As of today, according to the fangraphs depth charts page, the tigers are projected to get 19 war from position players and 11.5 war from pitchers, which is ninth worst overall in baseball.

The position player value is 15th overall. That's not a terrible number to be at going into the season, especially if you think Victor will exceed his projection of 1.0.

The pitching appears to be a concern but I think it's just something you have to live with at this point because there isn't much that can be done at this point. Adding another reliever isn't going to make much of a difference.

The top three starters are projected to combine for 7 war.

Norris is only at 1.1.

These spots will make or break the season.

Verlander was worth 6.8 and 4.9 in 2012-13. His 2.3 projection makes sense after his last two years, but it isn't hard to envision him putting up a number closer to 4.

Sanchez was worth 6 in 2013 and 3 over 2/3 of a season in 2014. You could see him being close to 3 or even 3.5 instead of near 2 as he is projected.

Zimmermann has been above 3 every year and averaged about 3.5 since 2011. But his decline from 5.3 to 3.0 over the last two years has his projection at only 2.5. You could see a 3.5 this season.

If the big three combine for 11 instead of 7, that makes a big difference. If Norris puts up a 2 instead of 1, that also helps. I don't think any of that is unrealistic or overly optimistic.

Now the pitching is giving you 16.5 instead of 11.5 and the overall war is up to 35.5 instead of 30.5. And you could probably add a win to the position players to account for Victor being better.

36.5 would out the Tigers at 13th overall and in thick of the AL central race.

Of course, other teams could probably point to similar adjustments. But it does seem like the Tigers were particularly snake bit last year. You don't go from division favorites to last place without a lot of things going wrong.

The only spot left where they could make a significant move is replacing Collins 350 PAs of 0.3 war with a legit LF. It seems like such an obvious and easy move to make. Even though it will cost money, there is so much value given where they project to be. And if things with the pitchers pan out they will be sitting in a very good position.

They could consider trading Sanchez, pelfrey, and/or kinsler in the offseason to pare down the payroll if necessary.

This is what we are going to get with Avila in charge. I think it's pretty clear that identifying guys who he thinks are going to be better going forward is a big piece of his approach to competitive advantage - and oddly enough, in a universe where more and more emphasis is being put into statistical analysis which is by nature retrospective, it may now be exactly the point where value can be maximized. However, it means that *if* he is successful at it, the Tigers team projections should lag their actual performance.

Edited by Gehringer_2

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The problem is they regress everybody to the mean so much. That gets you closer to being right on more players. However, you end up with nobody in baseball having a great year and hardly any team winning 90+ games which is an unrealistic result. I'm not sure how to fix that without getting subjective.

I don't know that I agree with that. The dodgers are projected right now to have a 50 war team. Cubs are 46. Red Sox are 44. Nats are 43.

A replacement level team is a 48 win team so every one of those is projected to be above 90 wins.

I think in the Tigers case the big three pitchers all saw either a multi year decline or a decline immediately after a career year. So it makes sense that the projections would latch onto that trend. I think every one of our top three pitchers performed below their 2014 projection.

A guy like JD is kind of an anomaly and I agree that his 2.5 is too low. 4 seems a lot more reasonable.

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I have no doubt that the Tigers are in full-bore on Cespedes. They need someone like that to make this team a legitimate contender this year. Illich recently said he doesn't mind going over the luxury tax to win. They're going to have to in order to do so this year.

The fact is, there's very few people on the FA market that fit an immediate need for the Tigers and that can improve our prospects so much with just one signing. LF is a huge hole right now.

Collins is a solid 4th OF type, and he can spell JD and Cespedes and possibly more importantly be the backup DH if VMart gets injured again (or if VMart has to play 1B if Cabrera gets injured).

I take Illich at his word when he says the goal is to win now regardless of the cost. I'd actually be surprised if we somehow walk away without Cespedes, or at least Gordon. But I'd put my money on Cespedes, because Illich has this loyalty thing and he's seen him play for the Tigers already.

Comments by the Tigers saying they're not interested don't mean much. They don't want to publicly drive up the price.

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I don't know that I agree with that. The dodgers are projected right now to have a 50 war team. Cubs are 46. Red Sox are 44. Nats are 43.

A replacement level team is a 48 win team so every one of those is projected to be above 90 wins.

I think in the Tigers case the big three pitchers all saw either a multi year decline or a decline immediately after a career year. So it makes sense that the projections would latch onto that trend. I think every one of our top three pitchers performed below their 2014 projection.

A guy like JD is kind of an anomaly and I agree that his 2.5 is too low. 4 seems a lot more reasonable.

How do they project the Dodgers at 98 wins? Their everyday lineup isn't really that great and besides Kershaw, their starters have a lot of question marks. Jansen is great, but the rest of the pen is meh. Maybe they moved 7 war from us to them :smoker:

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How do they project the Dodgers at 98 wins? Their everyday lineup isn't really that great and besides Kershaw, their starters have a lot of question marks. Jansen is great, but the rest of the pen is meh. Maybe they moved 7 war from us to them :smoker:

I wonder if some of it is self-fulfilling, I think Friedman is very analytically oriented, and that's how the predictions are done.

But yeah, Kershaw is 8 WAR, and they pay for a crap-ton of depth, so even if one guy gets knocked for injuries they have another guy just as good to keep each position at least at league average.

Also, they think Brett Anderson is as good as Verlander and Zimmermann, so there's that.

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I wonder if some of it is self-fulfilling, I think Friedman is very analytically oriented, and that's how the predictions are done.

But yeah, Kershaw is 8 WAR, and they pay for a crap-ton of depth, so even if one guy gets knocked for injuries they have another guy just as good to keep each position at least at league average.

Also, they think Brett Anderson is as good as Verlander and Zimmermann, so there's that.

I don't think it is self fulfilling. I think they just happen to have a lot of players that have fewer question marks or players that have been better.

The Brett Anderson thing says more about the poor projections of Verlander and zimmermann that it does about Anderson being an overly high projection.

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I don't think it is self fulfilling. I think they just happen to have a lot of players that have fewer question marks or players that have been better.

The Brett Anderson thing says more about the poor projections of Verlander and zimmermann that it does about Anderson being an overly high projection.

Still, how do they get to a 98 win projection? This is a team that won 92 games last year, replaced Grienke with Iwakuma and they are projected to win 98? It doesn't really matter, but it shows a clear flaw in the projections. It just doesn't make sense to me that they project the Dodgers as currently contstructed the best team on paper. I don't think you would find many GM's who would agree either. Most on XM don't even project them as currently constructed to win their division.

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Why would any decent player sign with that mess of a team. First of all, the stadium is a total dump. Secondly, you don't know who your teammates are going to be month-to-month. That "genius" in the GM's chair there traded Josh Donaldson because he didn't like him. I don't get that. The team, the stadium and the city are a dump. Heck, for all we know the team could be located in Portland in a few years.

Maybe it's because in the last 15 seasons they've gone to the playoffs 8 times, had 91 and 88 win seasons that missed the playoffs two other times, and have only one season with fewer than 75 wins.

In that time span the Tigers have made the playoffs 5 times and had 7 such non competitive seasons. Also, they're located in Detroit, which is basically the Oakland of the east. Stadium is a lot nicer though, yes.

I mean basically Jason Giambi being too dumb to slide and Justin Verlander owning them is the only thing that has kept the A's from being something of a dynasty in the American League

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Still one of DD's best moves...

Evan Grant ‏@Evan_P_Grant 27m27 minutes ago

Hearing Rangers surveying clubs' interest in picking up bulk of Fielder's contract. Not getting much response

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Still one of DD's best moves...

Evan Grant ‏@Evan_P_Grant 27m27 minutes ago

Hearing Rangers surveying clubs' interest in picking up bulk of Fielder's contract. Not getting much response

That's even with us covering $6 million/year starting next year.

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He's owed $90 million over 5 years by the Rangers. If Texas picks up part of the contract, I could see a team taking him. Especially a team like the Yankees with that ridiculous RF.

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