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2014-15 Off-season Thread


Yoda
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So I heard Henning on 105 today, just bits and pieces, but first he was telling us not to worry about Rondon and JV because they are not threatening type injuries, but then he ended up saying the team would be lucky to be 500. I don't know if I missed something in between and that was the hypothetical if the two of them don't come back or what....

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Seriously, what is it about this team that inspires the writers to always act so gloomy? Is it the fact that we've won so often but without the World Series that makes them so ornery and negative.

These guys always seem so bitter, and they are always looking to let the negatives drive the conversation.

I'm not saying the team is above criticism. There are definitely some spots that are weaker than others.

Is it the psychological thing of preparing yourself for the worst so that you don't end up disappointed?

The way they make it sound, the tigers aren't going to hold any leads this year.

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I picked them to win 90 games before spring training. I might be down to 88 now with Verlander injured and none of the relievers showing indication of a break through. Maybe I'm being optimistic and they are really an 85 win team like the projection systems are saying, but they are too talented to say "lucky to finish .500".

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I picked them to win 90 games before spring training. I might be down to 88 now with Verlander injured and none of the relievers showing indication of a break through. Maybe I'm being optimistic and they are really an 85 win team like the projection systems are saying, but they are too talented to say "lucky to finish .500".

I think the 8 on the field are better than last yr. I don't know that the pen could be any worse as Soria, Krol (healthy and with his head together) and Nesbitt will do better with the innings we may to take from Joba and Nathan than anything last season. So to me it still comes down to JV and Greene. I think the team will be more or less as many games over 500 as those two pitchers are. Simon is a bit of a wild card, I'm assuming his record runs about even.

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I also think the projections are under projecting cabrera and jd martinez.

They under project too many star players I think. I understand what they are doing in regression to the mean and trying get the lowest error possible (sum of projected minus actual), but they never project anyone to have a great season. This is never going to happen in reality, so I don't think you can just stop at projections. You need subjectively figure who is going to beat the projections.

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They under project too many star players I think. I understand what they are doing in regression to the mean and trying get the lowest error possible (sum of projected minus actual), but they never project anyone to have a great season. This is never going to happen in reality, so I don't think you can just stop at projections. You need subjectively figure who is going to beat the projections.

I don't have a problem with regressing the projections. I just think you can look at reasons where the algorithm underrated a player. JD doesn't get any credit for his completely revamped swing. I think he was regressed too much.

Cabrera had the injury recovery early last year and then the ankle thing late in the year. The projections just see the reduced power without context.

That's all I'm getting at.

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I don't have a problem with regressing the projections. I just think you can look at reasons where the algorithm underrated a player. JD doesn't get any credit for his completely revamped swing. I think he was regressed too much.

Cabrera had the injury recovery early last year and then the ankle thing late in the year. The projections just see the reduced power without context.

That's all I'm getting at.

I don't have a problem with the regression either. It's just that there will never be a season where nobody is great, so I think you need to go beyond projections in making predictions.

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I don't have a problem with regressing the projections. I just think you can look at reasons where the algorithm underrated a player. JD doesn't get any credit for his completely revamped swing. I think he was regressed too much.

Cabrera had the injury recovery early last year and then the ankle thing late in the year. The projections just see the reduced power without context.

That's all I'm getting at.

That logic can go either way though. When a guy has a great year, are there variables that had combined in his favor that may not be repeated but they happen to be variables we don't see? In which case the lack of context might be about the same either way. I'm talking about obscure stuff like maybe a guy's allergies didn't bother him as much one year and so he slept better. Obvious deficit factors like injuries have a reporting bias that other kinds of factors may not.

that said, I've talked about the sampling population assumption many times before so while I generally find projections entertaining, I maybe take them less seriously than some anyway just because the assumption that guys are the 'same' guys from year to year is always questionable to me.

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....and we're back !

Maybe.

At any rate, ST is over and one last thing that strikes me reading over the myriad of season forecasts appearing this week, is that having gotten a chance to actually see him a little more, just about no one is still forecasting Moya to make an appearance in the OF for the Tigers this season.

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