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Is there a stat for being clutch?


Danjo
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I LOVE the clutch stats for Cabrera he is OPS'n over .900 in every category except the one that is kind of ambigious the 'late and close' where he OPS's .883

It may be ambiguously named, but Late & Close has a very specific definition posted right on the page: "PA in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.".

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Actually yes, it's "JTR" named for the patron saint of clutchiness.

Biff gave the right answer in his second post of the thread.

Why was there any further talk? Three more pages??

That's crazy.

:wink:

..figure I better put the winky there, or some people's heads will explode...

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Fangraphs has a stat called "clutch.". I don't know exactly how it is calculated, but I know it uses WPA somehow.

We could simply look up those numbers for various players and leave it at that. Somehow I don't think the discussion will end there.

Cabrera is 1.46, Martinez .69 and Inge .93 for 2011 in the "clutch" column. Seems this is a relative measurement against each player's individual "context-neutral" at bats. Makes more sense when you factor in WPA/LI for 2011.

Cabrera: 5.46

Martinez: 2.46

Inge: -1.76

Cabrera is more often faced with higher leverage situations and delivers in them more consistenly than Inge or even Martinez. I needed to spend 15 minutes on Fangraphs to learn that one? The learning here is that Inge's .93 clutch rating is skewed by a smaller sample size due to his negative WPA/Li.

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Cabrera is 1.46, Martinez .69 and Inge .93 for 2011 in the "clutch" column. Seems this is a relative measurement against each player's individual "context-neutral" at bats. Makes more sense when you factor in WPA/LI for 2011.

Cabrera: 5.46

Martinez: 2.46

Inge: -1.76

Cabrera is more often faced with higher leverage situations and delivers in them more consistenly than Inge or even Martinez. I needed to spend 15 minutes on Fangraphs to learn that one? The learning here is that Inge's .93 clutch rating is skewed by a smaller sample size due to his negative WPA/Li.

Any stat that has Inge ahead of Martinez is a stat that does not pass the smell test....YES!

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I have come to the conclusion that I know nothing about this game. I questioned why Don Kelly was starting in game 5 and after his home run in his first at bat I see why. Jim Leyland must know something about his team that other people just can't see. I am truly impressed and humbled. Way to go Leyland and Kelly. I hope the Tigers finish the Yankees off.

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I have come to the conclusion that I know nothing about this game. I questioned why Don Kelly was starting in game 5 and after his home run in his first at bat I see why. Jim Leyland must know something about his team that other people just can't see. I am truly impressed and humbled. Way to go Leyland and Kelly. I hope the Tigers finish the Yankees off.

I am not trying to sound like a jerk and welcome to the good side, but you didn't think he knows more than we do? He's the skip. He is with the team every day....that is what makes me crack up when people (myself included sometimes) act like we know what is better for the team.

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It may be ambiguously named, but Late & Close has a very specific definition posted right on the page: "PA in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.".

But is that definition accurate? Is the get-away day game against Kansas City in early June a "clutch" situation?

If you want to talk really "clutch" situations, that might encompass 10 ABs a season (maybe less). Because baseball is the marathon, the late & close is relatively meaningless. That situation occurs on a weekly basis (if not more).

Late and Close in an elimination game is a different story. Some players will go their entire career without facing that situation.

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I have come to the conclusion that I know nothing about this game. I questioned why Don Kelly was starting in game 5 and after his home run in his first at bat I see why. Jim Leyland must know something about his team that other people just can't see. I am truly impressed and humbled. Way to go Leyland and Kelly. I hope the Tigers finish the Yankees off.

I think it was a simple matter of riding a hot hand. Kelly is .321/.357/.585 since September 1, and even more recently, .385/.467/.692 in the last seven days. Sample size restrictions apply, but I'm thinking those numbers factored a not a little bit into Jim Leyland's decision.

To be clear, Don Kelly is not a good player. He's a 31 year old organizational soldier with a .240/.285/.363/74 OPS+ line, and lest anyone think he has turned a corner or something, he was .254/.291/.381/83 OPS+ this year. He's not going to get any better. He's going to get worse. He is at best a 25th man on the major league roster of any decent team.

But for a brief shining moment, Don Kelly is The Man Of The Hour. God bless him.

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But is that definition accurate? Is the get-away day game against Kansas City in early June a "clutch" situation?

If you want to talk really "clutch" situations, that might encompass 10 ABs a season (maybe less). Because baseball is the marathon, the late & close is relatively meaningless. That situation occurs on a weekly basis (if not more).

Late and Close in an elimination game is a different story. Some players will go their entire career without facing that situation.

One reason why I think the Clutch debate will never end is nobody can agree on what constitutes a clutch situation. Not only that, you can't get an agreement on what a success is. Is a walk a success? Advancing the runners with an out a success? Is a run scored on a GIDP a success? Is a double when you need a HR a success? Is reaching on a fielders choice where no put-out recorded a success?

I could make an argument that leading off an inning is a clutch situation because if you reach base you are far more likely to score than any other situation. But you rarely hear anyone discuss that.

Instead, in my opinion, it seems more often than not that the clutch discussion is whatever the narrator wants it to be to fit whatever narrative s/he wants.

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But is that definition accurate? Is the get-away day game against Kansas City in early June a "clutch" situation?

If you want to talk really "clutch" situations, that might encompass 10 ABs a season (maybe less). Because baseball is the marathon, the late & close is relatively meaningless. That situation occurs on a weekly basis (if not more).

Late and Close in an elimination game is a different story. Some players will go their entire career without facing that situation.

I think the most difficult situation for a player is playing for a crappy team and not having a chance to make the playoffs. It must be difficult to keep focused and playing at a high level when you face that situation game after game. I consider that to be just as much pressure as performing in clutch situations. I respect a player who can be a consistent producer on a team like that as much as I do a player who contributes to a playoff team. I believe that most players enjoy clutch situations and receive too much credit for their performance in those games.

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But is that definition accurate? Is the get-away day game against Kansas City in early June a "clutch" situation?

If you want to talk really "clutch" situations, that might encompass 10 ABs a season (maybe less). Because baseball is the marathon, the late & close is relatively meaningless. That situation occurs on a weekly basis (if not more).

Late and Close in an elimination game is a different story. Some players will go their entire career without facing that situation.

You raise a good point, I'd say that for a stat like Late and Close, you can parse it only so finely, and you have to draw the line somewhere. The databases are hard pressed to separate a June getaway game from a September win-or-go-home situation. It's true you may not get more than 10 chances a year at a true clutch situation, but inherently, you couldn't tell much of anything from results in that few opportunities anyway, because of sample size issues.

Another way to approach clutch is to look at Win Probability stats on BR. This measures things like WPA (Win Probability Added, a change in win probability caused by batter during the game); aLI (Average Leverage Index, the average pressure the batter saw in this game or season, 1.0 being average pressure); WPA/LI (Situational Wins, the sum of WPA divided by the LI for each play); and what they call "Clutch", defined as WPA (overall)/aLI - WPA/LI (as shown), the difference between context dependent WPA and the context-neutral WPA.

It's not as intuitive as eyeballing that a guy hits .320 Close and Late versus another guy hitting .180, but it is a rigorous attempt to look at every at bat for the player in all situation, whether clutch (high leverage) or non-clutch (low leverage), and it is easier to get a grip on how this guy performs against the rest of the league in one viewing.

Here's how Don Kelly fared during his career:

10-7-1111-01-45AM.png

According to this, he has faced mostly lower leverage situation (0.89 career), and fared average in what they term Clutch situations (-0.0).

Take this with a grain of salt if you like. I myself use this as a rough benchmark.

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You raise a good point, I'd say that for a stat like Late and Close, you can parse it only so finely, and you have to draw the line somewhere. The databases are hard pressed to separate a June getaway game from a September win-or-go-home situation. It's true you may not get more than 10 chances a year at a true clutch situation, but inherently, you couldn't tell much of anything from results in that few opportunities anyway, because of sample size issues.

10 clutch AB's a year for one player? If that player goes 8-10 in those clutch AB's it could tell you something couldn't it? It could be a guy with year end Cabrera numbers or a guy with year end Raburn numbers.....either way I think you can parse something from it.

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  • 6 months later...

Sorry to bring up this old thread, but I've been looking through the Tigers page on Baseball Reference trying to find averages with RISP with no luck. Would something like "BRS %" provide an equivalent? The only drawback I see is this doesn't differentiate runners on 1st from runners in scoring position.

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