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Is there a stat for being clutch?


Danjo
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Who lives and dies by numbers? I don't think you have a very good grasp on what "numbers guys" do at all. Or you just an an irrational hatred towards them. Something doesn't add up here. Did one insult you once or something?

I guess the thing that bugs me is that I keep hearing things like "batting order doesn't matter" or "intentional walks shouldn't be issued". If your batting order can gain 15 runs by optimizing it, that could possibly equate to 1 to 3 more wins. That would have given the Tigers home field advantage. Some might say that home field advantage doesn't matter. Who knows?

The underlying issue is that there are stats to support any claim you want to make. People have run models and simulations to prove many a point either way. Ultimately the game is played on the field and you never know what will happen.

Having a large sample size is great, but it doesn't account for the playoffs when a small size is what wins or loses. Streaky players make the difference. You have to throw out the seasonal stats and go with who is hot. So when I constantly hear about the sample size is too small it makes me crazy. Some guys give you large sample sizes and make adjustments and change their performance completely. Example: Jose Bautista, Barry Zito, Jhonny Peralta, Luis Gonzales, Adam Dunn, Carl Crawford or Brennan Boesch. These guys all changed after a decent sample size.

So it isn't one person, it is more of a general attitude that is assumed to be fact in some instances. For the guy who claims batting order doesn't matter I can show you 3 studies where it does.

That's my gripe... and Don Kelly starting. I love stats, but I understand that they are just a general picture that need to be completed by other circumstances and variables. Nothing is set in stone.

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It could also be that some people read "The Book" or "Moneyball" and that is the end-all to the conversation. I'm pretty sure "The Book" is where the lineup ideas come from. Other people have studied lineups as well but didn't publish a book, so their concepts haven't become the Sabermetric mainstream thoughts - even though their analysis may be more accurate.

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It could also be that some people read "The Book" or "Moneyball" and that is the end-all to the conversation. I'm pretty sure "The Book" is where the lineup ideas come from. Other people have studied lineups as well but didn't publish a book, so their concepts haven't become the Sabermetric mainstream thoughts - even though their analysis may be more accurate.

Billy Martin relied on "The Hat" once. It worked for him.

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It could also be that some people read "The Book" or "Moneyball" and that is the end-all to the conversation. I'm pretty sure "The Book" is where the lineup ideas come from. Other people have studied lineups as well but didn't publish a book, so their concepts haven't become the Sabermetric mainstream thoughts - even though their analysis may be more accurate.

The writers of The Book did not claim that line-ups don't matter. They presented their theory on an optimal line-up, but they understand that it's not going to work in every case. Tango is very interested in observation of the game which is why he does the Fan Fielding Survey and other similar projects. Both Tango and MGL have been hired by MLB teams to analyze the game, so there must be people inside the game who appreciate their work.

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I think there has been an awful lot of Chinese Jibberish going on here.

Full disclosure time: I played baseball up to high school and I was lousy. It was probably for the best, because had I been a fair country player I probably would have devoted far more time into baseball in the hopes of making a career as a player than was appropriate. In any event, age 15 was when it was made clear I was no ball-player.

I did letter in another sport at university and was an academic all-american finalist, which required some amount of athleticism and success in competitions at that level. I think it means little to nothing as it pertains to analyzing baseball.

I also think it is borderline insulting and/or ludicrous to suggest someone who has not played baseball or another sport does not understand the concept of pressure or performing under pressure. It is not a difficult concept to understand or grasp. People don't dismiss the idea of being a clutch player because they can not conceptualize it and haven't experienced it. It seems to me much more likely they dismiss it because it is hard to quantify in the first place and demonstrate statistically in the second. There also is the issue of if one can raise their game in a clutch situation, they would presumably raise it all the time, or at least try to, because that would mean even more success / job security / money.

As for me, I think that the major leagues are so competitive, and the training / development process so rigorous in the form of the minor leagues, that those guys who cannot handle the pressure well simply get shook out before they make the majors. In other words, I absolutely believe some do not perform well under pressure, but those individuals, by and large, never make the majors.

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I also think it is borderline insulting and/or ludicrous to suggest someone who has not played baseball or another sport does not understand the concept of pressure or performing under pressure. It is not a difficult concept to understand or grasp. People don't dismiss the idea of being a clutch player because they can not conceptualize it and haven't experienced it. It seems to me much more likely they dismiss it because it is hard to quantify in the first place and demonstrate statistically in the second. There also is the issue of if one can raise their game in a clutch situation, they would presumably raise it all the time, or at least try to, because that would mean even more success / job security / money.

As for me, I think that the major leagues are so competitive, and the training / development process so rigorous in the form of the minor leagues, that those guys who cannot handle the pressure well simply get shook out before they make the majors. In other words, I absolutely believe some do not perform well under pressure, but those individuals, by and large, never make the majors.

What I said earlier in fewer words.

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I also think it is borderline insulting and/or ludicrous to suggest someone who has not played baseball or another sport does not understand the concept of pressure or performing under pressure. It is not a difficult concept to understand or grasp. People don't dismiss the idea of being a clutch player because they can not conceptualize it and haven't experienced it. It seems to me much more likely they dismiss it because it is hard to quantify in the first place and demonstrate statistically in the second. There also is the issue of if one can raise their game in a clutch situation, they would presumably raise it all the time, or at least try to, because that would mean even more success / job security / money.

As for me, I think that the major leagues are so competitive, and the training / development process so rigorous in the form of the minor leagues, that those guys who cannot handle the pressure well simply get shook out before they make the majors. In other words, I absolutely believe some do not perform well under pressure, but those individuals, by and large, never make the majors.

This.

When I played, there were no shortage of people who told me that I had the physical tools/ability to play college ball. When I look back on my own life I tend to feel that if I had the same personality/frame of mind when I was 16 or 17 that I have now that I probably would have played in college. But I simply couldn't handle the mental rigors of the game, even at the high school level. It torpedoed anything that might've come out of my playing. It didn't help that I had a coach in high school that was absolutely wrong for someone of my demeanor/temperament --- I ended up quitting midway through my senior year as a result. I was an anti-clutch player. I hated hitting in clutch situations, even though I was a very good hitter normally. I couldn't take the pressure and would beat myself up horribly if I failed, which was often because I'd hit in clutch spots terrified of failure and not playing to succeed, but "not to fail" (the beat myself up thing is a flaw I still have). I was also prone to meltdowns in the field. I was (and still am) an extremely fast runner and I could catch up to any ball in Center Field. I could (and still can) make spectacular plays in the field, but I sometimes had trouble catching the ball while running and if I made one error in a game on a play that I personally thought I should make, things could get bad for the remainder of the game. It would go from that one error on a ball that virtually nobody else would've had a chance on anyway, to dropping routine fly balls because I'd be so shaken from missing the original ball. There were times where after making one such mistake I would chase down similar balls in the gap later in the game and intentionally run just fast enough to make a play on a hop to stop the runner from getting a triple and hold him to a double, but not quite fast enough to catch up to the ball. These were balls I knew I could get to, but I was so afraid of missing it when I got to it and I was so much faster/took better routes than most teams I played against (or players I played with) that I could get praise for playing balls on hops because it would appear to others that I made a good play (for other players wouldn't have cut the ball off at all and it may have rolled to the wall), whereas I knew mentally that I could've gotten even closer but didn't want to feel bad for making ANOTHER error.

All that rambling is to say --- I don't believe I had the physical tools to play Major League baseball....Although perhaps someone could've cultivated them to get me in eventually. However, I probably did have the tools and ability to play at a higher level than I did, but I was weeded out by my inability to handle the pressure and clutch situations. Someone like me knows all about what a clutch situation is, but as Mr. B said, I think by the time you get to the major league level, guys like me and more talented guys who aren't as extremely bad in the clutch like me are mostly weeded out. I'm sure there are a handful of guys in the MLB that have forms of confidence problems, but I believe those guys are more likely to be the exception than the norm.

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It could also be that some people read "The Book" or "Moneyball" and that is the end-all to the conversation. I'm pretty sure "The Book" is where the lineup ideas come from. Other people have studied lineups as well but didn't publish a book, so their concepts haven't become the Sabermetric mainstream thoughts - even though their analysis may be more accurate.

Does it really make sense to say, "maybe the available research says that optimized lineups make very little difference, but there's probably some other research somebody did that refutes this idea but they just haven't published it, so I'm just going to ignore the research that's out there."

I do agree that even if an optimized lineup provides 15 additional runs per year, it should not be dismissed as inconsequential. I do agree that you should run the lineup that provides the most wins, because even one extra win can lead you to play baseball in October instead of golf. I think the point, though, is to not stress out over the Crazy Old Man Doing Crazy Old Man Things with the lineup, because on a single game basis, it is more likely to not matter than to matter.

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Makes sense.

Signed,

Chuck Knoblauch and Rick Ankiel

I know you're probably just busting chops, but both players had long runs of success (Knoblauch much moreso than Ankiel) in the MLB before one day just losing it. Also, if it simply was only an issue of pressure, I don't think Ankiel could've made it back as a hitter. Perhaps the inability to handle pressure played a role in their meltdowns, but I'd tend to think there were other factors at play, including but not limited to "things just happen sometimes".

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I know I said in another thread that I was going to say this once and be done, but because the debate has reignited, I am going to post this again, here:

The sabermetric ship has sailed, and all 30 major league organizations are aboard. This is not directed at anyone here specifically, but there is no debate to be made against the value of advanced performance metrics anymore, except by the luddites, and they are wrong as wrong can be.

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I have you blocked, but for the hell of it decided to look at this post and I recall why I had you blocked in the first place.

Both links you posted are links to his page..nothing specific.

I am guessing you you posted them to dispute the 'clutch stats' I posted? If so try one more time and maybe I will give my second point.

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