Jump to content

John Sickels' Top 20 Tigers Prospects


ChrisBrown
 Share

Recommended Posts

a couple of random points:

1. The Tampa Bay Rays drafted Longoria #3 overall in 2006. He signed, went to low A, was rushed to high A, and then rushed again to AA, where his numbers dropped. In 2007 he started at AA and was rushed to AAA, where his numbers dropped. In 2008, clearly disoriented by all the rushing, he struggled in 7 games with a .533 OPS at AAA, so the Rays..... rushed him to the majors where he was ROY and is maybe now the best player in the AL.

2. The Rays had Davis and Moore move slowly because they have TJ surgery.

3. Basically, every player is different but the Rays tend to draft a lot of HS kids who take longer to develop. FWIW, #1 pick Beckman is struggling. Have the Rays handled him correctly? Moved him too slow? Too fast? I think if you want to insulate yourself from second guessing, you move him the traditional way, that way if he fails it is on him, not on a stupid GM like DD who "rushed" him.

4. The Twins generally don't draft premium talent players, who move faster

5. I'm not sure how the Tigers should have demoted Fields when he was doing so well. "Dan, you have moved to a new position where you have committed no errors, and you are holding your own against pitchers 3 years older than you, but to justify your huge signing bonus and to make the organization look better to internet bloggers who make top 10 lists, we want to demote you to A- ball so your numbers will look super duper good, even though that may not be the challenge you need right now. OK?"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BetMGM Michigan $600 Risk-Free bet

BetMGM Michigan Sports Betting
Michigan online sports betting is now available! Start betting at BetMGM Michigan now and get a $600 risk-free bet bonus at their online sportsbook & casino.

Claim $600 risk-free bet at BetMGM Michigan Now

  • Replies 103
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Agreed with Ed completely. The only player in recent years I can think of that was "rushed" - Alex Avila. And that was pretty much out of necessity.

Despite that, Alex is showing flashes of promise at the plate, and has proven very capable behind it.

Really with Alex, the biggest reason he might have benefited from time at Toledo was so that he could have played more. JL made him sit too much behind Laird.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think Edman was saying positive things about the organization. I doubt he thinks they have done a great job producing major leaguers and current top prospects. I don't think he was even saying they necessarily do the right thing in every case. He was just saying that the organization knows more about handling players than we or Sickels do and that we don't know how the Tigers handling of players has affected their development. I agree with him there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think Edman was saying positive things about the organization. I doubt he thinks they have done a great job producing major leaguers and current top prospects. I don't think he was even saying they necessarily do the right thing in every case. He was just saying that the organization knows more about handling players than we or Sickels do and that we don't know how the Tigers handling of players has affected their development. I agree with him there.

+1

more succinct and more diplomatic than i could have put it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think Edman was saying positive things about the organization. I doubt he thinks they have done a great job producing major leaguers and current top prospects. I don't think he was even saying they necessarily do the right thing in every case. He was just saying that the organization knows more about handling players than we or Sickels do and that we don't know how the Tigers handling of players has affected their development. I agree with him there.

Stop putting words in my mouth...

But yes, you are right. I also don't think Sickels is a good prospect analyst.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But yes, you are right. I also don't think Sickels is a good prospect analyst.

The problem is he hasn't changed. When he first started doing the prospect books, he was one of the only people covering the minor league systems in depth. So, even though it was all stats, it was still fun to read what he had to say. Now, there are hundreds of people doing the same thing.

Stop putting words in my mouth...

My words were too diplomatic for you?

Edited by tiger337
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The problem is he hasn't changed. When he first started doing the prospect books, he was one of the only people covering the minor league systems in depth. So, even though it was all stats, it was still fun to read what he had to say. Now, there are hundreds of people doing the same thing.

My words were too diplomatic for you?

Way too diplomatic...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Edman, I guess you are right, again. I can know see that the Tigers and there way of doing things is the right way, as our system is overrun with prospects and the envy of most major league organizations. Maybe the Tampa Bay Rays and the Minnesota Twins would be more successful with their prospects if they tried "the Tigers way". As long as there are Adam Everetts, Gerard Lairds, Johnny Damons, ect, we will always be able to find players.

Our system is not overrun with prospects, but if you go back and look at the past five years, the Tigers have been a relatively successful team, while the output resulting from free agent signings has been surprisingly minimal (Yes, I'm in the midst of researching and quantifying that... more data to come much later).

So if the farm system is so consistently poor, and the free agents don't contribute much, how does the team still contend?

First, the prospect lists aren't exactly an accurate portrayal of talent in a system. When a young player has enough big league playing time, he's no longer eligible. So a team that "rushes" players is going to have fewer prospects. So while our farm system looks crappy in lists, there's a lot of young talent on the active roster, and that's been the case for much of the past few years.

Second, trades... Dave Dombrowski has been an excellent trader since taking over for Randy Dandy. The Renteria trade aside, almost all trades he has made have been winners. I've already alluded to how "rushing" Maybin and Miller may have enabled them to sell high on them. Throw in Joyce/Jackson, Guillen/Santiago, Polanco/Urbina, Bonderman/Weaver, and you have several top notch deals made that have kept the team in contention.

The team needs to stop drafting so many freaking relievers though. The opportunity cost is immense, as we now have a relatively barren system and nothing to show for picks 2-4 of the 2008 draft.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

a couple of random points:

1. The Tampa Bay Rays drafted Longoria #3 overall in 2006. He signed, went to low A, was rushed to high A, and then rushed again to AA, where his numbers dropped. In 2007 he started at AA and was rushed to AAA, where his numbers dropped. In 2008, clearly disoriented by all the rushing, he struggled in 7 games with a .533 OPS at AAA, so the Rays..... rushed him to the majors where he was ROY and is maybe now the best player in the AL.

2. The Rays had Davis and Moore move slowly because they have TJ surgery.

3. Basically, every player is different but the Rays tend to draft a lot of HS kids who take longer to develop. FWIW, #1 pick Beckman is struggling. Have the Rays handled him correctly? Moved him too slow? Too fast? I think if you want to insulate yourself from second guessing, you move him the traditional way, that way if he fails it is on him, not on a stupid GM like DD who "rushed" him.

4. The Twins generally don't draft premium talent players, who move faster

5. I'm not sure how the Tigers should have demoted Fields when he was doing so well. "Dan, you have moved to a new position where you have committed no errors, and you are holding your own against pitchers 3 years older than you, but to justify your huge signing bonus and to make the organization look better to internet bloggers who make top 10 lists, we want to demote you to A- ball so your numbers will look super duper good, even though that may not be the challenge you need right now. OK?"

I dont understand your Evan Longoria rushing rant. He was the # 3 draft choice in the country from one of the premier college programs. He was sent to short season ball and batted 424 in 33 ABS. He was then sent to High A ball and batted 327 with 8 home runs in 28 games. He was then promoted to AA where he batted 267 with 6 home runs in 26 games. Are you commenting because he didn't bat 424 in AA ? There is a difference between "rushing" and being successful. Of course, I would have argued he should have went to low A. I have never said that there are not elte talents in the game, with Justin Verlander being one of them.

Larry

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm generally with Edman here, the 2 guys they really rushed were Maybin and Miller, and that couldn't have worked out better. I don't see how you can complain about Porcello, he was absolutely essential in 2009, and finished strong in 2010. Maybe he'd have a better breaking pitch, maybe not. There's tons of guys who don't develop effective secondary pitches in the minors. Oliver was rushed for all of 4 starts. Doesn't really count IMO, although I hope they start him at AAA.

I'm interested if they draft more high talent guys later on in this draft this year. Especially with what's probably going to be a lower MLB payroll. I think the two guys they hired are a bit known for that style of drafting too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

First I want to apologize to Edman, I dont agree with him but he is a knowledgable, respected member of this site and doesn't deserve sarcasm. As for his responses to my post, and I think I have written this once before, debating Edman is like argueing with your wife. He disagrees, but gives no factual reason. Why would a 20 year old baseball player who barely speaks passable English who has never lived outside the dorms possibly have a problem adapting to life in Erie which may affect his development ?

As for his response for Ryan Perry, I interpret that as he feels it is better for Ryan Perry to fail in the majors and learn a lesson than to succeed in the minors and be promoted later. Am I the only person on this board who wishes we had one of Ryan Perry's failing lessons during the regular season in 2009 back. It would have been the difference between the playoffs and golf.

As for rushing players and successes and failure, we will never know. I can always say the guy failed and Edman can say he would have failed anyway. Edman can say he was rushed and succeeded and I can say he could have been better.

Does anyone else feel that Cale Iorg was rushed and this may be the root of his problems. He played one year of college ball at Alabama and then went on a two year mission, not playing any ball. He then goes directly to High A. Would his pitch recognition be better if he spent a year at WM and then a year at Lakeland. We will never know.

As for me, I am admittedly conservative in nature, which reflects in my player development feelings. I looked at the hometowns of many of the people who disagree with me and wonder how many minor league games you see and how well you follow the minor leaguers. Living near Lakeland, I get to see all prospects on the back fields during the exibition season. I see at least 80 Lakeland games a year, not to mention some extended spring training games, GCL games and Instructional League games. Us die hard Lakeland fans follow and discuss West Michigan quite frequently because they are successful and we look forward to seeing their guys. That is why we are upset when some of the better WM players skip Lakeland.

Lastly, at the Lakeland games, I sit behind home plate among the scouts and have for three years. During this time scouts eventually talk freely with you. Believe it or not, they actually ask me questions about players. Nothing technical, more about where did he come from or what injury is he suffering. I talk with them and I can assure you that my opinions are shared by the vast majority of them.

So what have we decided?

The Tigers do an excellant job of developing and promoting players ?

The Tigers do an average job of developing and promoting players ?

The Tigers draft poorly and do an excellant job of promoting what players hey have?

Any combination of the above.

I hope everyone has a safe and happy holiday season. The players will be back in Lakeland in less than a month.

Larry

2010 AAT Brandon Douglas

Link to comment
Share on other sites

First I want to apologize to Edman, I dont agree with him but he is a knowledgable, respected member of this site and doesn't deserve sarcasm. As for his responses to my post, and I think I have written this once before, debating Edman is like argueing with your wife. He disagrees, but gives no factual reason.

What factual reasons have you provided? It seems to me you are riding the speculation train like everyone else. The only difference I see is one of opinion.

BTW, I don't care for the wife comment.

As for his response for Ryan Perry, I interpret that as he feels it is better for Ryan Perry to fail in the majors and learn a lesson than to succeed in the minors and be promoted later. Am I the only person on this board who wishes we had one of Ryan Perry's failing lessons during the regular season in 2009 back. It would have been the difference between the playoffs and golf.

If we hadn't have rushed Porcello the question wouldn't be before the house.

As for rushing players and successes and failure, we will never know. I can always say the guy failed and Edman can say he would have failed anyway. Edman can say he was rushed and succeeded and I can say he could have been better.

Exactly, so why don't we just accept this and move on? Arguing beyond this is pointless because it is impossible to know with any degree of accuracy whether or not a given player was hurt or helped by rushing him.

So what have we decided?

The Tigers do an excellant job of developing and promoting players ?

The Tigers do an average job of developing and promoting players ?

The Tigers draft poorly and do an excellant job of promoting what players hey have?

Any combination of the above.

None of this was decided or really even suggested. Which suggest to me you either didn't take the time to understand other poster's positions, or you overstated things to try to make your position more reasonable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Perry had a 0.25 WPA in 2009. While it's not great, it means that by hook or crook, he helped the team more than he hurt it. So I think the hint that his rushing cost us the playoffs that year has no basis in reality.

BTW, I don't care for the wife comment.

What, you don't believe women can't use reason in an argument? I'm sure plantcity will explain why he thinks this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

First I want to apologize to Edman, I dont agree with him but he is a knowledgable, respected member of this site and doesn't deserve sarcasm. As for his responses to my post, and I think I have written this once before, debating Edman is like argueing with your wife. He disagrees, but gives no factual reason. Why would a 20 year old baseball player who barely speaks passable English who has never lived outside the dorms possibly have a problem adapting to life in Erie which may affect his development ?

worst.apology.ever.

why even say it when you clearly do not mean it and are just setting the stage for getting in some digs of your own?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've seen prospects spend years in the minor leagues "developing" and not getting rushed, only to fall flat on their face when they get to the major leagues. Brandon Wood is a pretty good example. Or I've seen other guys be held back to develop and then get injured and wash out before even making the big leagues, like Adam Miller. Why didn't all the development time work for Brent Clevlen?

What bothers me about the "rushing" angle is that it just looks like a lot of confirmation bias. We talk about all these Tigers prospects being rushed right now, but Miller and Maybin were traded early enough for the Marlins--a team that is very adept at handling prospects--to do whatever they felt was necessary to develop them, and yet they washed out anyway. Rick Porcello gets criticized but the Jays handled Roy Halladay a similar way and look how that turned out. And you never hear anyone complain that Joel Zumaya was rushed anymore.

The Tigers have a bad system that had not produced much talent. It's unfortunate, and they really need to draft better after spending early round picks on guys like Bourquin who never make it out of AA. But if you look at their body of work, there isn't really much evidence to suggest that they've mishandled the good talent they've gotten. Instead, we have two prospects who were traded really early in their careers who didn't do anything once they got out, and nebulous claims about how could Porcello or Perry might be had they spent more time in the minors, both who are pretty darn good players right now anyway.

I just think how to handle prospects is one of those things where the lay person is just not qualified to analyze effectively. Not that I'm suggesting that people stop talking about it, but I think deference should be given to the organization more often in this topic, than in others.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree, I like the aggressiveness with our prospects, most of the time at least.

I have a few gripes with the list, but overall, he at least put a good top 20 out there. I think our top 20 is pretty strong personally too, despite criticisms. 3 maybe 4 top SP propsects, 2 elite position talents(and 2-3 more who could be in Martinez,Garcia and Vasquez), a ton of power relief arms(all the big trades lately have seeminlgly centered around minor league relievers. Nobody wants to pay them in FA, so stockpiling cheap young arms is important. not all of them will work out, so strength in numbers is good) as well as some position types who while not elite, appear to be future starters in the majors. Strieby,Wells,Sizemore,Boesch,Iorg(Brendan Ryan with pop?).

I disagree that Smyly is only a 4th starter. He has all the potential to be a top 3 type finesse lefty. Furbush and Wilk are 4/5 guys and you can't act like Smyly isn't well ahead of them as a prospect. Crosby is the big difference maker. If he works out, we are in great shape, if not, we are a little more average.

agreed on the rushing angle. You aren't hurt by that strategy IMO. If a guy totally flops and can't handle it, you move him back. Otherwise, you either see him succeed or you get a good look at him, what he needs to work on etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's what cracks me up with the "rushing" people. At the end of the day it's seeing what your investment/product is. Not how are we gonna draw in the fans at lakeland or how are we going to market him at West Michigan. Everything is relative to it's own set of circumstances. If I have a guy who can't develop as a baseball player because he's insecure about being able to talk to someone at the drive thru then thats not the guy I really want going forward and it was better for me finding out sooner than later.

Sometimes you want to challenge certain guys. Some guys you might have to do the baby steps thing with. It's up to the organization and personal around them to analyze this, it's why they are paid. I trust them in this regard more than a passionate forum poster's armchair analysis.

In most cases what will happen is a guy will develop better once realizing his faults, I mean what choice does he really have. Either he has it and gets it or he doesn't. Why not expedite that timeframe to find out. Because if he doesn't have it why take 5 years for everyone to figure that out when you can do it in perhaps half that time. Padding stats and building up your confidence should be the reward for meeting that challenge if anything, not something you do to make the minor league staduim's fill or hide your inevitable fate.

I mean I know that I love to continually be challenged at work for example. I want to be tested to my limit to see just what I'm capable of becoming. My employer wants to know what they have on their hands as well. Why not find out as soon as possible. If I were a minor league ballplayer I would expect the same. People have to also realize that many of these guys most likely, especially if they are worth their meddle, want to be challenged as well. Hell it's what they go to bed dreaming about. It's the detached from the ongoings of being a professional athlete crowd that will never quite get this I believe. Watching as many games as possible in person still doesn't explain this. It's all about the inevitable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As for his response for Ryan Perry, I interpret that as he feels it is better for Ryan Perry to fail in the majors and learn a lesson than to succeed in the minors and be promoted later. Am I the only person on this board who wishes we had one of Ryan Perry's failing lessons during the regular season in 2009 back. It would have been the difference between the playoffs and golf.

I think the problem with Ryan Perry is his landing position with his left leg. I'm definitely not a pitching coach, but I think it is too close to the rubber. This limits his extension and gives hitters a little bit longer to react than a typical 95+ mph pitcher. However, if it were that simple I'm sure someone would have corrected it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BA has an article that is premium about the Tigers rushing pitchers on their site now.

BaseballAmerica.com

I'm not sure why there is all the concern for "rushing"? You challenge a player until they stop themselves. To progress a player needs to make adjustments to superior competition. Pushng shows what adjustment needs to be made. If they fail they will go back to lesser competition. If you can't make the adjustment, it doesn't matter if you were rushed or held back. If you can't make a physical adjustment, you won't progress. If you can't handle failure, you won't progress.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not sure why there is all the concern for "rushing"? You challenge a player until they stop themselves. To progress a player needs to make adjustments to superior competition. Pushng shows what adjustment needs to be made. If they fail they will go back to lesser competition. If you can't make the adjustment, it doesn't matter if you were rushed or held back. If you can't make a physical adjustment, you won't progress. If you can't handle failure, you won't progress.

They don't delve into that question much, if at all. All rushing is bad, so Sickels must be right. I'm sure he has researched the issue extensively to be painting with such a broad brush.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share


Michigan Sports Betting Offer

Michigan launched online sports betting and casino apps on Friday, January 22, 2021. We have selected the top Michigan sportsbooks and casinos that offer excellent bonus offers. Terms and conditions apply.

BetRivers Michigan - Get a 100% up to $250 deposit bonus at their online sportsbook & casino.

Click Here to claim $250 deposit bonus at BetRivers Michigan For Signing Up Now

FanDuel Michigan - Get a $1,000 risk-free bet at FanDuel Michigan on your first bet.

Click Here to claim $1,000 Risk-Free Bet at FanDuel Michigan

BetMGM Michigan - Get a $600 risk-free bet at the BetMGM online casino & sportsbook

Click Here to claim $600 risk-free bet at BetMGM Michigan

   


×
×
  • Create New...