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Lilly and Theriot: What would they cost us, and are they worth it?


alwaysthrowheat
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You are now crowned King of Irony! All hail, Your Majesty! :silly:

Well, if you've ever watched Don Kelly, you would know that he is a .280 slugger. He has a long track record in the minors of hitting for no power whatsoever. Comparing Don Kelly and Ryan Theriot? Seriously? Don Kelly will not put up 5.6 WAR for his career, which Theriot did in two years. Apples to oranges my friend.

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Any metric, you say? OK, I'll bite. Here are some metrics reflecting the performance of Ryan Theriot since the beginning of 2007 (courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com):

OPS+: 79 (21% below average)

WAR: 3.6 (in 3-1/2 seasons)

Offensive Win Pct: .442

XBH%: 17% (meaning 83% of his hits were singles)

WPA: -5.5

Base-Out Runs Added: -43.8

Batting Wins: -6.4

Pass.

I understand you are using the baseball reference WAR. I am honestly completely unaware how that stacks up with fangraphs. Fangraphs: 1WAR= 4.4 Million. 2 WAR=average player. So theriot is a league average short stop. No better, no worse. If you do not have to give up quality talent for him, it is an adventageous move to embetter the tigers for the short term while inge is hurt, and they need someone to play every day.

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Well, if you've ever watched Don Kelly, you would know that he is a .280 slugger. He has a long track record in the minors of hitting for no power whatsoever. Comparing Don Kelly and Ryan Theriot? Seriously? Don Kelly will not put up 5.6 WAR for his career, which Theriot did in two years. Apples to oranges my friend.

I just thought it was funny that you are talking about a sample size for being Theriot being too small to come to a conclusion about him, when you leaped to a conclusion about Don Kelly based on fewer at bats. It was humorously ironic.

I understand you are using the baseball reference WAR. I am honestly completely unaware how that stacks up with fangraphs. Fangraphs: 1WAR= 4.4 Million. 2 WAR=average player. So theriot is a league average short stop. No better, no worse. If you do not have to give up quality talent for him, it is an adventageous move to embetter the tigers for the short term while inge is hurt, and they need someone to play every day.

Can you show me where a 2 WAR is an average player? At B-R, 0-2 is considered a reserve, with 2+ being a starter, and in no season did Theriot achieve even 2. And this year, at -0.9, he is considered worse than a freely-available replacement player.

Meanwhile, since 2007, among all shortstops who qualify (1750 PAs), Theriot is dead last in OPS+:

Batting Season Finder - Baseball-Reference.com

Open it up to half the plate appearances (825), and he is still no better than 26th out of 33:

Batting Season Finder - Baseball-Reference.com

And if you want to talk fielding, let's look at UZR/150 at Fangraphs (800 innings qualify for a full season):

2007 rank: 4.4 (10th of 27)

2008: 2.3 (9th of 21)

2009: 4.1 (12th of 26)

2010: 4.7 (9th of 25)

OK, he appears to be on the high end of average in the field at SS and, this year 2B. But he is also one of the worst-hitting middle infielders in the game. Maybe you can excuse that and assign him league average status based only on his fielding, but in my book, his terrible hitting drags him down to replacement level at best, despite his slightly above average fielding.

For the last time: pass.

Edited by chasfh
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I understand you are using the baseball reference WAR. I am honestly completely unaware how that stacks up with fangraphs. Fangraphs: 1WAR= 4.4 Million. 2 WAR=average player. So theriot is a league average short stop. No better, no worse. If you do not have to give up quality talent for him, it is an adventageous move to embetter the tigers for the short term while inge is hurt, and they need someone to play every day.

Now there's a perfectly cromulent word!

DSC08790.jpg

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Chas,

You seem to like to throw BR's version of WAR around while completely ignoring FG's version. Probably because BR makes your argument better. I don't think it's fair to just look at BR's version of WAR. Also, if you like UZR as a defensive metric, as Lee stated, FG uses UZR in it's WAR calculation while BR does not apparently.

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Chas,

You seem to like to throw BR's version of WAR around while completely ignoring FG's version. Probably because BR makes your argument better. I don't think it's fair to just look at BR's version of WAR. Also, if you like UZR as a defensive metric, as Lee stated, FG uses UZR in it's WAR calculation while BR does not apparently.

Which would of course make Thierot an offensive force on par with

jennie_finch.jpg

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Chas,

You seem to like to throw BR's version of WAR around while completely ignoring FG's version. Probably because BR makes your argument better. I don't think it's fair to just look at BR's version of WAR. Also, if you like UZR as a defensive metric, as Lee stated, FG uses UZR in it's WAR calculation while BR does not apparently.

OK -- you wanna throw out B-R's WAR and use Fangraph's? Fine by me.

Here are Ryan Theriot's WAR ranks using the Fangraphs metric:

2007: 1.4 (20th of 26)

2008: 3.2 (9th of 17)

2009: 2.4 (13th of 20)

2010 (at 2B): -0.3 (21st of 21)

Am I OK now?

So -- still want him?

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OK -- you wanna throw out B-R's WAR and use Fangraph's? Fine by me.

Here are Ryan Theriot's WAR ranks using the Fangraphs metric:

2007: 1.4 (20th of 26)

2008: 3.2 (9th of 17)

2009: 2.4 (13th of 20)

2010 (at 2B): -0.3 (21st of 21)

Am I OK now?

So -- still want him?

I never advocated for Theriot, but your use of BR's WAR makes guys like Stephen Drew and Ryan Theriot much worse than FG's version, that's all I'm saying. Stephen Drew ranking 5th this year among SS in WAR using FG metric vs. 17th using BR's metric for example.

Theriot is having a pretty bad year this year compared to his last couple, but a WAR value of 3.2 and 2.4, which is what he's done that last two seasons according to FG is better than we've had at SS the last couple of years by far.

Santiago has a better WAR value this year, but it's also a career high, some say not to look at just one season's WAR value and this season is only half over anyways, so it's probably not fair to just look at this half season to judge.

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I never advocated for Theriot, but your use of BR's WAR makes guys like Stephen Drew and Ryan Theriot much worse than FG's version, that's all I'm saying. Stephen Drew ranking 5th this year among SS in WAR using FG metric vs. 17th using BR's metric for example.

Theriot is having a pretty bad year this year compared to his last couple, but a WAR value of 3.2 and 2.4, which is what he's done that last two seasons according to FG is better than we've had at SS the last couple of years by far.

Santiago has a better WAR value this year, but it's also a career high, some say not to look at just one season's WAR value and this season is only half over anyways, so it's probably not fair to just look at this half season to judge.

Without committing to whether the WAR metric used by BR or Fangraphs is superior, I have addressed this for you. Even granting you that Theriot had ~3 WAR in 2008 and 2009, it is no longer either of those years today. He has a sub-zero in 2010. I think that's the more relevant number.

That said, you're using the same reason to dismiss Santiago (he's having his best year) as to promote Theriot (in 2008 and 2009, he had his best years). They actually both have the same problem: they both turn 31 this year. I just don't see the value of bringing in Theriot to come in and likely perform worse, or at best same, as Santiago, particularly taking into account league change, and giving Theriot something long term to boot. Because that would be the point of bringing him in this year, right? Because if the idea was to bring him in for a rental to make a run for the pennant instead, that to all appearances is going backwards.

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I just thought it was funny that you are talking about a sample size for being Theriot being too small to come to a conclusion about him, when you leaped to a conclusion about Don Kelly based on fewer at bats. It was humorously ironic.

Can you show me where a 2 WAR is an average player? At B-R, 0-2 is considered a reserve, with 2+ being a starter, and in no season did Theriot achieve even 2. And this year, at -0.9, he is considered worse than a freely-available replacement player.

Meanwhile, since 2007, among all shortstops who qualify (1750 PAs), Theriot is dead last in OPS+:

Batting Season Finder - Baseball-Reference.com

Open it up to half the plate appearances (825), and he is still no better than 26th out of 33:

Batting Season Finder - Baseball-Reference.com

And if you want to talk fielding, let's look at UZR/150 at Fangraphs (800 innings qualify for a full season):

2007 rank: 4.4 (10th of 27)

2008: 2.3 (9th of 21)

2009: 4.1 (12th of 26)

2010: 4.7 (9th of 25)

OK, he appears to be on the high end of average in the field at SS and, this year 2B. But he is also one of the worst-hitting middle infielders in the game. Maybe you can excuse that and assign him league average status based only on his fielding, but in my book, his terrible hitting drags him down to replacement level at best, despite his slightly above average fielding.

For the last time: pass.

First off, I am still using fangraphs as my WAR totals which i have mentioned before. With that being said, i STILL understand that he is not a powerful hitter, which I have also mentioned before, and I have said numerous times that he will not cost a lot in terms of players, and he is under team control and making barely any money. I understand that he is having a poor year this year. Once again, I get that. But, if you look at his entire career, he has been worth (according to fangraphs) 8.3 WAR under team control. If you look at that going forward, and you project his pay to be 5 million for the next two years (he is making 2.6 this year), he only needs to be worth about 1.3 WAR to live up to that contract, which is not only attainable, but more than likely.

In addition to your question about where 2 WAR (according to fangraphs) is an average player, here is a link. You will find it in the second paragraph. They mention it on fangraphs sometimes too, however, I had trouble finding an exact article, but if you are a reader of the site, you will come across it. Below Average in Every Component of Rally's WAR, but with Positive Career WAR - Beyond the Box Score

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Without committing to whether the WAR metric used by BR or Fangraphs is superior, I have addressed this for you. Even granting you that Theriot had ~3 WAR in 2008 and 2009, it is no longer either of those years today. He has a sub-zero in 2010. I think that's the more relevant number.

That said, you're using the same reason to dismiss Santiago (he's having his best year) as to promote Theriot (in 2008 and 2009, he had his best years). They actually both have the same problem: they both turn 31 this year. I just don't see the value of bringing in Theriot to come in and likely perform worse, or at best same, as Santiago, particularly taking into account league change, and giving Theriot something long term to boot. Because that would be the point of bringing him in this year, right? Because if the idea was to bring him in for a rental to make a run for the pennant instead, that to all appearances is going backwards.

I understand what you are saying, but you have to realize, there just are NOT that many good shortstops in the game today. Simply looking at WAR (which I know is not the end all, be all...) Look at who you have in the top 5... Rafael Furcal, enjoying a monster year, Hanley, who is a top 5 player in the game, alex gonzalez!?, ALEXEI!?, CLIFF PENNINGTON!? REALLY!? I mean, there just are not that many good short stops. Outside of that, theres reyes, jeter, andrus, Tulo.. how many guys would you really want on your team going forward? Go look who is starting for a lot of teams. Even good ones. Jerry Hairston for the Pads, 280 pound Juan Uribe for the Giants, Nick Punto for Minnesota, Clint Barmes for Colorado, Felipe Lopez for the Cardinals, the corpse of Orlando Cabrera for the Reds. Not many shortstops hit and field all that well, its rare to find one that is a complete package, and when you do, you hold on to them.

Basically, here is what I am saying. I am not advocating moving any assets for either of these players. I asked the board what they thought they would garner. If it is a deal built around one decent prospects and some mid-level ones, then it is foolish not to give it a look. Prospects are a crap-shoot, and if you can get major leaguers who can help your team win, now.. then why not? At no point have I said lets trade turner and strieby and dan fields for these two guys. All that I am saying is that Theriot is a league average short stop, who would provide a similar level of play than Ramon, allowing a possible shift to third base for him for the time that Inge is out, and a more than capable bench player for the time after that. You can say you would rather run Danny Worth, oh sorry.. i mean Neifi Perez, oh, I mean Cale Iorg out there going forward..

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Why would you trade anything for a player similar to Ramon so you can shift Ramon to third? I'm sorry but that is borderline insane.

Okay, so who is available out there? Ill throw out some names for you... Miguel Tejada, Wiggington, Aramis Ramirez... Not only would these players be more expensive to acquire and to pay.. they would provide similar production in terms of overall value. Yes, I know Aramis has hit 9 homers in 12 days. Please, the guy is hitting .220 and making what seems like a million dollars per hit. There just are not that many good options. Borderline insane is running Don Kelly out there every day.

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I can't wait to win the world series of cost effectiveness. We may only win 70 games but we'll do it on a budget!

When did I say the entire team needed to be cost effective. I am saying at shortstop or third base, for the rest of the season, and as a bench player going forward. If you look at the statistics, not only do a lot of shortstops vary year to year.. but their production is not significantly higher than one another. Most of the guys are run of the mill and middle of the pack, hence, not marginally making up for the cost difference between one another. So, if you can pay a guy 2 million to be average, you can upgrade and pay people much more money to be great at other positions that the marginal difference is more.

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