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When are the Tigers are top half of the league offensive team?


kj2018
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It feels like it has been about 7-8 years since the Tigers were a top third offensive team.  Even in their mid 2010's hayday they always seemed to finish 5th or 6th in the AL in runs scored.  Let's hope the pipeline can finally produce some run creators and this franchise can stop being a bottom feeder in runs scored every year.

With the possibility of Greene, Tork, Dingler, Baddoo, and maybe a few FA signings, there seems to be some light at the end of this dark tunnel that they have been in

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If the Tigers sign one of the top SS this offseason, Tork gets called up and has a Pete Alonso like rookie season, Badoo continues to develop and guys Willi C and Jeimer repeat their 2020 seasons then it could come as soon as next year but there is a better chance of the Lions winning a Super Bowl than that happening.  Realistically it's gonna be a few years atleast. 

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42 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

If the Tigers sign one of the top SS this offseason, Tork gets called up and has a Pete Alonso like rookie season, Badoo continues to develop and guys Willi C and Jeimer repeat their 2020 seasons then it could come as soon as next year but there is a better chance of the Lions winning a Super Bowl than that happening.  Realistically it's gonna be a few years atleast. 

Let's not go that far. 

They're already in the top half. In May they were 15th in runs scored. In June they're 13th. Who knows if they stay there all year. But with possibly adding a SS and tork coming, I'm not sure why we think it's still several years away. 

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37 minutes ago, Yoda said:

Let's not go that far. 

They're already in the top half. In May they were 15th in runs scored. In June they're 13th. Who knows if they stay there all year. But with possibly adding a SS and tork coming, I'm not sure why we think it's still several years away. 

Yes.

Exactly.

Greene is going to be up sometime next year as well...

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59 minutes ago, Yoda said:

Let's not go that far. 

They're already in the top half. In May they were 15th in runs scored. In June they're 13th. Who knows if they stay there all year. But with possibly adding a SS and tork coming, I'm not sure why we think it's still several years away. 

Currently they are 27th in runs scored, 24th in wOBA, 22nd in slugging and 28th in OBP.   They are no where close to being a top 15 offense right now, maybe I was a little hyperbolic and not all those things would need to happen but they certainly need quite a bit of things to go right to have a plus offense in the near future. 

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1 hour ago, RandyMarsh said:

Currently they are 27th in runs scored, 24th in wOBA, 22nd in slugging and 28th in OBP.   They are no where close to being a top 15 offense right now, maybe I was a little hyperbolic and not all those things would need to happen but they certainly need quite a bit of things to go right to have a plus offense in the near future. 

Sure, if you include a flukishly bad April. Like I said, since May, they've been in the top half. I think they're more likely to stay where they are than to repeat April again. 

If you rather look at wOBA, 15th in May and June. 

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27 minutes ago, Yoda said:

Sure, if you include a flukishly bad April. Like I said, since May, they've been in the top half. I think they're more likely to stay where they are than to repeat April again. 

If you rather look at wOBA, 15th in May and June. 

Even if you want to take that April away and only include May and June a good reason why those numbers look as good as they do are because Schoop has been on fire and Hass was really good, Schoop won't be here next year and I think we can all agree that Hass isn't likely to keep up what he was doing.   

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5 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Even if you want to take that April away and only include May and June a good reason why those numbers look as good as they do are because Schoop has been on fire and Hass was really good, Schoop won't be here next year and I think we can all agree that Hass isn't likely to keep up what he was doing.   

I'm happy to admit they probably won't keep that up, but until they don't, they're producing as a team in the top half. Someone else may come along and have a big July or August. Who knows. Maybe Miggy remembers how to hit. Maybe Candy has a big month. Maybe Willy. Maybe Baddoo goes back to hitting homers. 

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5 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Never.  They will never be top half in offense again.   Ever. 

Sorry...............Rainy Days and Mondays always get me down.     2024 is when they will get back to a top half of offense.  When that big gaping hole in the middle of the lineup is gone.    I appreciate the greatness of what he was and he will be in the Hall of Fame, he gave us so many great moments, but he's a rally-killer now.  Why did they have to crack down on steroids?  

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For those who can't read, they've been in the top half for a month and a half now. It won't take 3 more years. 

At what point does a team have to succeed at a certain level for it to be considered real and not just a lucky streak? I get that 1.5 months isn't a huge sample. Hoping this can continue the remainder of the season but we'll see. 

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This sounds like "if you take out Rick Porcello's two worst starts, he'd be an all-star" argument.  The last month and a half shows that the Tigers can be an average hitting team if things go well, but you can't just throw out the month of April.  They are still a weak hitting team as currently constructed and over a six month season they will have some bad stretches as they showed in April.     

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4 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

This sounds like "if you take out Rick Porcello's two worst starts, he'd be an all-star" argument.  The last month and a half shows that the Tigers can be an average hitting team if things go well, but you can't just throw out the month of April.  They are still a weak hitting team as currently constructed and over a six month season they will have some bad stretches as they showed in April.     

while I would say dropping outliers without justification is a worse statistical sin than picking a point in time and arguing there has been a change,  I agree with you otherwise  - I don't think they are yet an average hitting ballclub. You have to assume neither Cabrera nor Baddoo falls of their good June performances and that Hill or Cameron keeps up what they have only done between them in SSS. Those are all very iffy propositions. Could happen, could as easily not. Plus Schoop is going to regress to his norm, though that may/should be balanced by Candelario pulling out of the slump he is in.

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9 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

while I would say dropping outliers without justification is a worse statistical sin than picking a point in time and arguing there has been a change,  I agree with you otherwise  - I don't think they are yet an average hitting ballclub. You have to assume neither Cabrera nor Baddoo falls of their good June performances and that Hill or Cameron keeps up what they have only done between them in SSS. Those are all very iffy propositions. Could happen, could as easily not. Plus Schoop is going to regress to his norm, though that may/should be balanced by Candelario pulling out of the slump he is in.

I don't think there has been a dramatic change.  I think they are a below average hitting team that will have peaks and valleys.  Their pitching is a different story.  That is a very real and encouraging change.  

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2 hours ago, tiger337 said:

This sounds like "if you take out Rick Porcello's two worst starts, he'd be an all-star" argument.  The last month and a half shows that the Tigers can be an average hitting team if things go well, but you can't just throw out the month of April.  They are still a weak hitting team as currently constructed and over a six month season they will have some bad stretches as they showed in April.     

The big problem that I have looking at the lineup at the moment, especially in terms of evaluating the future for the Tigers, is how few of these guys are likely to be here when they start competing again. Even if that is a relatively short time period away. 

Of the guys on the roster at the moment, the three that I see that even have a remote possibility of being a long hauler on a rebuilt Tiger team are Paredes, Baddoo and Cameron. And it's possible that none of these three are even that good.

As many ups and downs as there has been with the pitching staff overall, even in the bullpen, there are guys that look like they could be building blocks for the future (ie. Funkhouser, Soto, etc.). Just not as promising in the lineup until Greene/Tork/Dingler get here.

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August 1st 2021 Detroit Tigers lineup (against a RH'er):

 

1. Riley Greene, RF (Hinch will protect him a bit against LH'ers at least to start, so Grossman).

2. Jeimer Candelario, 3B

3. Akil Baddoo, LF (or Grossman or Daz if it's a LH'er)

4. Spencer Torkelson, 1B

5. Robbie Grossman, DH (or Miggy if it's a LH'er)

6. Dillon Dingler, C

7. Willi Castro, 2B (if he can figure this out... if not...?)

8. Isaac Paredes, SS (maybe he moves to 2B if Castro flops and they call up Short or Peterson...?)

9. Derek Hill, CF (Daz will also get some starts here.. they're both RH'ers though)

 

Bench: Miggy (partial DH with Grossman), Daz, Harold Castro, and Jake Rogers. Maybe Haase too, but short an IF'er at this point so uncertain about the last position... When is it time to release Miggy and just eat up that cost...?

 

At this point, and henceforward, this team will be in the top half of MLB offenses...

Book it.

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I don’t think any of them will be here in 2021 to get the clock ticking on them. How soon any of them are here in 2022 will depend on their spring, but I would bet a dollar that at least one of them comes up by May 1. I’m guessing Dingler will be first.

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