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If this happens, it will cause Riots in Detroit... I'll lead em!


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4 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Of course, either other one of them could be good.  That's why it's fun to follow these second tier prospects, but what are the odds? Would you forego signing or trading for a proven shortstop because you know that Perez or Workman will be  ready?  

no - Agreed - they don't have anyone close enough or sure enough that they shouldn't be looking to address the position. The thing with the Tigers is that the decisions they make make sense based on *their* assumptions, but their assumptions are too often wrong. They ended '20 thinking that they were safe at SS because either Willi C or Niko would handle it and if Paredes or a resigned Schoop is at 2nd you don't have a place for all your MIFs to play if you sign another one. The decision logic was fine, the data supporting it turned out to be wrong - neither W Castro of Niko has played an acceptable SS and Paredes didn't make the team. I guess you can say that if they had signed a SS/2B instead of Schoop they be in better shape, but TBH, everyone liked Schoop and the decision to bring him back got wide approval.

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

Is there any Tigers top 20 prospect who you don't think is going to start in 2023?

Meadows looks like he's going to flop out...

As for Campos, Santana, Cruz, Keith, De La Cruz and Reyes... just haven't seen enough of them (minor league record I mean, not in-person views...) to know one way or another. But a couple of those guys seem to have extremely high upsides...

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22 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Meadows looks like he's going to flop out...

As for Campos, Santana, Cruz, Keith, De La Cruz and Reyes... just haven't seen enough of them (minor league record I mean, not in-person views...) to know one way or another. But a couple of those guys seem to have extremely high upsides...

I would say if 2 guys outside of The Mize, Greene, Torkelson, Manning, Skubal group become starters for a good team , it will be a success.  I am not being negative.  That's just how it goes with prospects.  

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I get that.

But I think that's also discounting that we might get a replacement level or just above average starter out of a few of these guys.

Like Paredes, or one of Hill/ Cameron, etc., etc.

Even some bench players...

Every contribution we get from a prospect is a plus (money we don't have to go out and spend on plugging a hole...).

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19 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

 

Every contribution we get from a prospect is a plus (money we don't have to go out and spend on plugging a hole...).

I personally am not spending any money.  The more money they spend, the better!  What if they find out that none of their minor league infielders can play shortstop at the big league level and there are no shortstops available in free agency or trade in a couple of years?  If an opportunity presents itself before then, I would like to see them go for it.  

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I don't disagree with that at all.

Plus, Avila/ Ilitch have to get someone to actually agree to come to Detroit. Money talks, but if the opportunity presents itself, just take it. As you say, who knows what is available in two years. 

And anyone coming up at that point... well, we'll just figure out positions later, when we cross that bridge.

The original question was do I believe they could be a SS of the future, and my answer is still yes. But... timeline is uncertain... so if a big-time-star SS wants to sign with us this offseason... **** YES! Sign him! Doesn't change my viewpoint of Perez or Workman though... I like them both.. a lot.

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The question was what are the odds that they have a shortstop in their system that is their shortstop of the future which is different from asking whether they could have the shortstop of the future in their system.  Your answer was "pretty good".   I would not say that, but we might have different ideas of what "pretty good" means.   

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48 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

I personally am not spending any money.  The more money they spend, the better!  What if they find out that none of their minor league infielders can play shortstop at the big league level and there are no shortstops available in free agency or trade in a couple of years?  If an opportunity presents itself before then, I would like to see them go for it.  

Agreed. Avila said they would spend when the time is right. We're close,  by this off-season, we should go out and sign a top tier SS. 

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Tigers grossly underestimated the difficulty in replacing Iglesias. That's why I come back to the fact that some of their moves in how they have let talent go have been at least as damaging to the franchise as their problems in drafting and developing talent.

Last yr the SS FA market was strongly inflated (based on Simmons and Semien) and if that continues I don't expect the Tigers to play there. Like ST said their best shot is probably to make an offer for a guy at AAA who is blocked - an Austin Jackson type player player with enough demonstrated talent/high floor that while he may not be great , you aren't goin to hurt yourself playing him - and if he's ends up better consider it a bonus. And if they  do land Lawler or Mayer they are still a couple of years away.

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10 minutes ago, Scottwood said:

Perez isn't a SS anymore and he repeated in low A ball. I'm not sure how high the org is on him.

he's 21 at A. 20 at A does sound better. The lost year means a lot of these guy need to start showing what they can do quickly or loose prospect status. He has started out with his OPS 200 pts higher than where he finished A ball in '19.  If he maintains that for any span he will be more on track. All the sample sizes still to small at MiLB though.

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52 minutes ago, Scottwood said:

Perez isn't a SS anymore and he repeated in low A ball. I'm not sure how high the org is on him.

 

33 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

he's 21 at A. 20 at A does sound better. The lost year means a lot of these guy need to start showing what they can do quickly or lose prospect status. He has started out with his OPS 200 pts higher than where he finished A ball in '19.  If he maintains that for any span he will be more on track. All the sample sizes still too small at MiLB though.

I think G2's take is more accurate. He was 19 when he first tried Low-A and he OPS'd .613. This year .826 in Low-A at the same age Gage Workman is, 21... 

They pushed him to 2B to make room for Workman. That doesn't necessarily mean they are down on Perez. He's always had high upside, which is why they paid a bonus of $550K in 2016 for him... 

He's just young and needs work like every other prospect out there...

If I were to guess, Gage will end up shifting over to 3B eventually (and Tork back to 1st), and Wenceel back to SS... but that's just my guess...

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While I love Lindor and fully expect him to bounce back, now that he's out of the picture, I really want Avila to target Seager, Baez or Correa and Story (Seager and Baez above Correa and Story). Not getting one of those four will be rough after this year. Not too often players of those caliber come to FA.  

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8 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

While I love Lindor and fully expect him to bounce back, now that he's out of the picture, I really want Avila to target Seager, Baez or Correa and Story (Seager and Baez above Correa and Story). Not getting one of those four will be rough after this year. Not too often players of those caliber come to FA.  

serious questions:

is it smart to give 10 years, $25-3000M to Corerra or Seager to play in their 30s when both had numerous injuries in their 20s?

Baez I think is the only player who walks as little as he does, and is still effective. how long will that last?

what is the overpay the Tigers need to make to land one of these guys? If the NYY offer Story 8/240M, what would the Tigers have to offer to beat that? 10/320MM ?

 

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13 hours ago, AlaskanTigersFan said:

While I love Lindor and fully expect him to bounce back, now that he's out of the picture, I really want Avila to target Seager, Baez or Correa and Story (Seager and Baez above Correa and Story). Not getting one of those four will be rough after this year. Not too often players of those caliber come to FA.  

My gut tells me Story's stats plummet if/when Coors is no longer his home ballpark.

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6 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

serious questions:

is it smart to give 10 years, $25-3000M to Corerra or Seager to play in their 30s when both had numerous injuries in their 20s?

Baez I think is the only player who walks as little as he does, and is still effective. how long will that last?

what is the overpay the Tigers need to make to land one of these guys? If the NYY offer Story 8/240M, what would the Tigers have to offer to beat that? 10/320MM ?

 

We should avoid all of them if the cost is more than 125 for 5 years and all will. 
A good GM can find quality for far less at a  sacrifice for some offense. Need a great defender that is not an automatic out. 

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22 hours ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

 

I think G2's take is more accurate. He was 19 when he first tried Low-A and he OPS'd .613. This year .826 in Low-A at the same age Gage Workman is, 21... 

They pushed him to 2B to make room for Workman. That doesn't necessarily mean they are down on Perez. He's always had high upside, which is why they paid a bonus of $550K in 2016 for him... 

He's just young and needs work like every other prospect out there...

If I were to guess, Gage will end up shifting over to 3B eventually (and Tork back to 1st), and Wenceel back to SS... but that's just my guess...

Luckily, MiLB was only shut down one season. These guys are all one year older but lost, forever, that year of development. Also, some players take a bit longer to develop. I don't see the Tigers giving up on a player just because he's 21. Especially considering the lost covid year.

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Seager is my first choice and the guy I'd feel most comfortable giving the big contract to unfortunately he plays for the Dodgers and they seemingly have a never ending supply of money so even if we did try to make a run at him it would be highly unlikely we'd outbid them.

With that said I don't think we have to overpay much to get one of the guys,  these guys almost always go to whatever team offers the most regardless of said teams situation.   Perhaps we could sweeten the deal by adding an opt out clause after a few years so if they're not happy with things here they could leave. 

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1 minute ago, RandyMarsh said:

Seager is my first choice and the guy I'd feel most comfortable giving the big contract to unfortunately he plays for the Dodgers and they seemingly have a never ending supply of money so even if we did try to make a run at him it would be highly unlikely we'd outbid them.

With that said I don't think we have to overpay much to get a guy,  these guys almost always go to whatever team offers the most regardless of said teams situation.   Perhaps we could sweeten the deal by adding an opt out clause after a few years so if they're not happy with things here they could leave. 

My thoughts exactly.

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On 5/24/2021 at 2:50 PM, Gehringer_2 said:

Tigers grossly underestimated the difficulty in replacing Iglesias. That's why I come back to the fact that some of their moves in how they have let talent go have been at least as damaging to the franchise as their problems in drafting and developing talent.

Last yr the SS FA market was strongly inflated (based on Simmons and Semien) and if that continues I don't expect the Tigers to play there. Like ST said their best shot is probably to make an offer for a guy at AAA who is blocked - an Austin Jackson type player player with enough demonstrated talent/high floor that while he may not be great , you aren't goin to hurt yourself playing him - and if he's ends up better consider it a bonus. And if they  do land Lawler or Mayer they are still a couple of years away.

Leyland used to describe Jonny Peralta as a guy who wasn't flashy but made all the plays. I think Peralta was really underrated. But yeah, we need to find a player who's blocked. 

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6 hours ago, Casimir said:

My gut tells me Story's stats plummet if/when Coors is no longer his home ballpark.

Just looking over splits from 2015-2019 as a brief reference, MLB home vs road OPS was a difference of around .020-.030.  Colorado over that same time frame was .180-.200 (.267 in 2014).  Story is a difference of .220.

Now, Story on the road is still slightly better than MLB average on the road, but this is a fools gold buy if Coors isn’t discounted.

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