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Does Al Avila make it to Memorial Day 2021

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I get it. It's easy in the heat of the moment to just assume nobody is going to perform better. Just as it's hard to see players cooling off when the entire team is hot. But it always averages out. They'll still be awful, likely worst offense in baseball, but they won't be in the top 3 worst offenses in the last 100 years. Players are just too strong.

And if it does look like the league is dipping back to 1960's level of futility, MLB will tighten the ball back up. I just don't see it happening. 

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Just now, Yoda said:

I get it. It's easy in the heat of the moment to just assume nobody is going to perform better. Just as it's hard to see players cooling off when the entire team is hot. But it always averages out. They'll still be awful, likely worst offense in baseball, but they won't be in the top 3 worst offenses in the last 100 years. Players are just too strong.

And if it does look like the league is dipping back to 1960's level of futility, MLB will tighten the ball back up. I just don't see it happening. 

They won't be the worst offense in 100 years, but they could have the lowest batting average.  

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1 minute ago, tiger337 said:

There are a lot more home runs now but a .233 MLB batting average is incredibly low even for April.  In 1968, it was .230 for April (and that's when pitchers batted in the AL).  

Agreed, it's not good. There are also a good number of players (rookies and vets) who didn't play last year, or played very little. They will likely progress throughout the season. 

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1 minute ago, tiger337 said:

They won't be the worst offense in 100 years, but they could have the lowest batting average.  

I'm fine with that. I just don't think they'll score less than 2.75 runs a game. And certainly not 2.5. 

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10 minutes ago, Yoda said:

 

 

If you would, go ahead and analysis this one out for me. Explain to me how Scoop (.491 OPS), Cabrera (.443), W.Castro (.509) will only "perk up" a little bit. JaCoby (may not be around much longer) is at a .380. Even he can't maintain and OPS that low. Outliers tend to revert back to the mean over a larger sample size. Certainly closer than they are now. Not a single player outside of Baddoo is playing at or above their career average. Most are unsustainably lower. 

If they perk up, how much will they perk up?  Schoop most likely will.  Cabrera could (am hoping not) be at the end. Castro has no proven track record.   Only Goodrum and Candy have an ops near or over .700

again, you are most likely right, but 29 games is not quite a small sample size, and the team has a whole have extremely high chase rates, high K rates, low BB rates, and there is no help to replace many of the current guys.

what is your final prediction / analysis for the final O numbers?

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5 minutes ago, kj2018 said:

If they perk up, how much will they perk up?  Schoop most likely will.  Cabrera could (am hoping not) be at the end. Castro has no proven track record.   Only Goodrum and Candy have an ops near or over .700

again, you are most likely right, but 29 games is not quite a small sample size, and the team has a whole have extremely high chase rates, high K rates, low BB rates, and there is no help to replace many of the current guys.

what is your final prediction / analysis for the final O numbers?

I'd say in a 162 game season after a very abbreviated season and with no minor league season, the first 30 games is a small sample. We prob should have expected the entire league to hit like **** at the start of the season. Doesn't mean that will continue all season. The weather will warm up, the hitters will remember how to hit. 

I don't have a prediction, except that it won't be as historically bad as you're saying.

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35 minutes ago, Yoda said:

IF that's the case, and that's a big IF. The players are too fast and strong these days. Offense will pick up in the summer as it always does. 

come on yoda, dont sell us short!  we can do it!

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21 minutes ago, Yoda said:

If you would, go ahead and analysis this one out for me. Explain to me how Scoop (.491 OPS), Cabrera (.443), W.Castro (.509) will only "perk up" a little bit. JaCoby (may not be around much longer) is at a .380. Even he can't maintain and OPS that low. Outliers tend to revert back to the mean over a larger sample size. Certainly closer than they are now. Not a single player outside of Baddoo is playing at or above their career average. Most are unsustainably lower. 

Schoop has at least looked like a major league hitter most of the time over the last 6 games.  Assuming that Cabrera doesn't have an injury problem he should bounce back to something realistic if still crappy.  I could seem them OPSing 700 or better after they return home.  I could even see Schoop OPSing 800-900 once he gets going.  Cabrera, I don't know....he just has not swung or hit the ball with any authority over the past few weeks, with the exception of the one bomb.  I could see him heating up when the weather gets warmer, but he has not looked like a really good hitter for any significant stretch for years, with the exception of one run maybe last year for about 50 - 70 at bats IIRC.

Willi Castro I'm afraid might be in the minors as soon as they have started up.  He has been completely overmatched for the last couple of weeks.  

Jones hasn't had enough PAs to know what's going on....just a small sample size I think.  

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When the weather warms up our pitching will regress, not that it's been great.  

Even with some bounce-back on offense, I could easily see us losing 110-120 games.  Easily.

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3 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

When the weather warms up our pitching will regress, not that it's been great.  

Even with some bounce-back on offense, I could easily see us losing 110-120 games.  Easily.

Having a win% 100 points lower than anyone else for April is a great start.  They'll have a lucky month where they win 17 games and end up with 57. 

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Victoar Reyes has an OPS of -1   JaCoby is a 4.    Neither one should be here right now.   Who do we have to replace them?   I don't care.   

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We should just start cutting every player who has a horrible month. Even when there's nobody to replace them with. That'll teach em. 

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that is just it, really nobody. Daz Cameron, Derek Hill, both guys are most likely going to hit somehere near the same.

Avila does not have any position players ready to step up right now

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31 minutes ago, kj2018 said:

that is just it, really nobody. Daz Cameron, Derek Hill, both guys are most likely going to hit somehere near the same.

Avila does not have any position players ready to step up right now

That's why he should be gone.  He's got nothing ready.   Is Nomar coming back soon at least?  

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Should we just do what the Man U fans did today?    Until Ilitch sells the team?   LOL.   Like baseball fans have that kind of passion anymore. 

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If the Tigers were flirting with .500, then I think that would feed urgency  that capable players need be acquired to make a push, and that would require money that I don't believe the organization wants to spend right now. So I think that Avila is doing exactly what his highness wants him to do, including hanging around to take the blame.

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20 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Should we just do what the Man U fans did today?    Until Ilitch sells the team?   LOL.   Like baseball fans have that kind of passion anymore. 

I remember years ago a group of Chicago Bears fans sued ownership for nothing putting a professional team on the field. This was pre 1980’s as I recall. I don’t think it went anywhere. 

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6 minutes ago, 1776 said:

I remember years ago a group of Chicago Bears fans sued ownership for nothing putting a professional team on the field. This was pre 1980’s as I recall. I don’t think it went anywhere. 

I think that might have been an episode of L.A. Law.  Mike Ditka guest starred and took the stand.   Why that case would have been in California, I have no idea.   The episode aired in 1990 and it was titled The Last Gasp

 

First Scene after the "Previously on L.A. Law" part.   Right at the start of the episode.  Ditka appears later in the episode. 

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4 hours ago, tiger337 said:

There are a lot more home runs now but a .233 MLB batting average is incredibly low even for April.  In 1968, it was .230 for April (and that's when pitchers batted in the AL).  

Its been kind of a warm April if we're going the meteorological route.

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9 hours ago, ROMAD1 said:

 

Flip it counterclockwise 90% and it resembles a middle finger.

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21 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Flip it counterclockwise 90% and it resembles a middle finger.

It is.   He has one job.  KEEP COSTS DOWN.    He's doing a great job, winning be damned.   

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Fun fact:

The combined run differential for the other 8 teams in the AL who currently have a negative differential: -67 (largest: Texas -17)

Tigers: -62

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4 hours ago, sabretooth said:

Fun fact:

The combined run differential for the other 8 teams in the AL who currently have a negative differential: -67 (largest: Texas -17)

Tigers: -62

We might as well get used to it. There will be no changes To me, the situation seems to be:

Ownership is trying to be frugal. Whether the team wins 1 or 100 games, there will only be 8,000 butts max in the seats. Why spend money, when the goal probably right now is to conserve cash? I would think that other Illitch businesses right now might be paddling hard to make loan payments, but I might be wrong.

This team is not going anywhere. To be marginally successful, they need at least 3 quality bullpen arms, and 4 or more average MLB position players. Far too many holes to patch.

Miggy is nothing but a sideshow now. The organization needs a draw, and fans will show up or tune in as long as there is a chance he will attempt to play.

They have a scapegoat in place-- Avila . He will be sacrificed as needed. They need him to take the blame for everything, including the absolutely abysmal record of the farm system's failure to identify, attract, develop properly, and retain ball players.

I have been entertaining thoughts recently if there is a move afoot to sell or move the team, butsuch thoughts are probably ill-advised right now.

 

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