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Does Al Avila make it to Memorial Day 2021

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How many years did the fans say "Fire Millen"?  3?  4?   It was only after the 0-3 start in 2008,  after the San Francisco loss, when WCJ Jr. said "he'd move on".............then it happened.     So until Chris or another Illitch says it, it ain't happening.  

 

How's that District Detroit coming along?  

 

 

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3 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

The losing is going to take it's toll on any TV team. On radio it's a little different because the guys can project whatever emotion they want to. Ernie could keep you happy listening to him regardless of what the play on the field was doing, Dan also maybe to a somewhat lesser degree. But on TV you have the all failure right in your face. You can't really project that you are having a good time in the booth over the terrible scenes the video is providing. Well maybe Bob Uecker can. So on that score I have some sympathy for Shepherd. But more generally - apart from not knowing what to do with the disaster on the field, what Shepherd needs to be good is to not work with with an ex-player. On the few occasions he has not had a player in the booth he is 1000% better. He has a baseball brain and he lets you see it. But put him next to Morris or  Gibson and he turns into a fawning caricature of 12 yr old fan.

Actually I think the guy who deals the worst with the losing is Gibson. He gets into a pretty terrible rut with the constant 'gotta do 'X' here now" litany.

Yes, it seems like Gibson forgets he is not in the dugout at times. Multiple times he has shouted, "let's go boys" in the booth this year when the Tigers were down late in the game. He was always uber competitive and that comes across in the booth, but the fact that he can't actually impact the game in anyway seems like it weighs on him in the booth at times. 

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8 hours ago, Motor City Sonics said:

How many years did the fans say "Fire Millen"?  3?  4?   It was only after the 0-3 start in 2008,  after the San Francisco loss, when WCJ Jr. said "he'd move on".............then it happened.     So until Chris or another Illitch says it, it ain't happening.  

 

How's that District Detroit coming along?  

 

 

Yeah, this does have that feel.  Its necessary.  It won't necessarily happen.  We will suffer a hopeless future until it does.

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I believe Avila will make it through 2021. If Hinch weren’t a new hire I think they’d fire him for the sake of show but as a brand new hand he’s safe right now. Wouldn’t surprise me if Coolbaugh got canned, something to signal that they’re trying to address issues. I still believe Avila has Illitch drinking the kool-aid.

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The thing is that if Illitch doesn't sell the team now, he's probably going to be shocked at the drop in value after the players strike next year.  Baseball is headed for a cliff and the players and owners are locked hand-in-hand like Themla & Louise.   

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6 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

The thing is that if Illitch doesn't sell the team now, he's probably going to be shocked at the drop in value after the players strike next year.  Baseball is headed for a cliff and the players and owners are locked hand-in-hand like Themla & Louise.   

To your point, I am convinced there will be a strike next year. A strike will hit the rebuild hard. The minor league shutdown last year with the abbreviated MLB season and a strike of any consequence next year will pretty much neutralize the the development of the recent high draft picks of the Tigers. IMO, any advantage the Tigers gained in the draft the last three years will be gone with a lengthy strike. That’s assuming this organization has any advantages to begin with. 

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16 minutes ago, Motor City Sonics said:

The thing is that if Illitch doesn't sell the team now, he's probably going to be shocked at the drop in value after the players strike next year.  Baseball is headed for a cliff and the players and owners are locked hand-in-hand like Themla & Louise.   

and all Manfred will care to  think about is whether Vegas will be able to get out an over/under on 'time to the bottom'

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22 minutes ago, 1776 said:

I believe Avila will make it through 2021. If Hinch weren’t a new hire I think they’d fire him for the sake of show but as a brand new hand he’s safe right now. Wouldn’t surprise me if Coolbaugh got canned, something to signal that they’re trying to address issues. I still believe Avila has Illitch drinking the kool-aid.

I don't know, it seems doubtful that they'll fire a coach already.  In Coolbaugh's favor is the team has stunk for a few seasons now and he isn't the one that acquired this "talent".  But the below career average numerals for the individual hitters are pretty damning.

There's just not enough depth of quality within the lineup the stress a pitcher into making enough mistakes where it might elevate the ability of lesser hitters.  A pitcher doesn't have to worry about mistakes being sent out of the park, and if a home run is hit, its going to be few and far between.  And aside from "aggressive baserunning" (not sure how that works with few baserunners, but whatever), there's not much else to the offense.  

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Detroit has to have the most anemic offense in any league right now. It is a joke. Firing Coolbaugh would not be warranted until he has actual major hitters. However, I believe if this org feigns a concerned attitude, which I am certainly not expecting, about the state of things, sacrificing Coolbaugh might be an option. Clearly the problems lie with the owner and his GM. 

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Al has done what the owner asked; so he might get fired up to President, but I don’t think he leaves

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The high strike has killed these guys. 

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1 hour ago, RatkoVarda said:

Al has done what the owner asked; so he might get fired up to President, but I don’t think he leaves

We don't know exactly what the owner is asking. Maybe Al has been promising they'd see improvement by this year. As of 3 years ago, they should have. 

That's a line I believed the last few years but we're getting to the point where they should be showing improvement. 2/3 of the top pitching prospects are on the team. Really quite a few of their top prospects have stalled a bit. Last year played a big part in that but we don't know how long Chris will allow that to be an excuse. At some point this will stop being acceptable; I just don't know where that line is with Chris. We could be getting close or he may give him another year. 

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1 hour ago, 1776 said:

Detroit has to have the most anemic offense in any league right now. It is a joke. Firing Coolbaugh would not be warranted until he has actual major hitters. However, I believe if this org feigns a concerned attitude, which I am certainly not expecting, about the state of things, sacrificing Coolbaugh might be an option. Clearly the problems lie with the owner and his GM. 

Again, there's a difference between having the worst offense ever and "currently playing like the worst offense ever". Only the latter is probably the case here. Too many hitters are dramatically under-producing and their numbers should come back up over the course of the season. They won't average just 2 runs a game for the next 130 games. They won't be great, but they won't stay this bad either. 

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1 hour ago, Yoda said:

Again, there's a difference between having the worst offense ever and "currently playing like the worst offense ever". Only the latter is probably the case here. Too many hitters are dramatically under-producing and their numbers should come back up over the course of the season. They won't average just 2 runs a game for the next 130 games. They won't be great, but they won't stay this bad either. 

Their offense is really bad though and with the league batting average being as low as it is this year, we could see the Tigers challenge some records.  

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3 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Their offense is really bad though and with the league batting average being as low as it is this year, we could see the Tigers challenge some records.  

For sure. I mean they have an incredible head start. They probably have to be close to some april records. Outside of a shortened 2020, no team since the 60's has hit below .220 for the season. The Tigers are currently hitting .198. It just won't stay that low. Sub-.220 is doable. Even that will take most of the team performing near their career lows. It's hard to get an entire team to do that at the same time, which is why it hasn't happened since the 60's. 

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1 hour ago, Yoda said:

For sure. I mean they have an incredible head start. They probably have to be close to some april records. Outside of a shortened 2020, no team since the 60's has hit below .220 for the season. The Tigers are currently hitting .198. It just won't stay that low. Sub-.220 is doable. Even that will take most of the team performing near their career lows. It's hard to get an entire team to do that at the same time, which is why it hasn't happened since the 60's. 

though one difference was that in the 60's a lot of those low average hitters could walk, so their OBP's were better at a given BA and they generated more net offense. Just a typical 60's  low BA player that comes to mind, Mark Belanger for his career hit 228 but with a 300 OBP. McAuliffe hit 247 with a 347 OBP etc.

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3 hours ago, Yoda said:

Again, there's a difference between having the worst offense ever and "currently playing like the worst offense ever". Only the latter is probably the case here. Too many hitters are dramatically under-producing and their numbers should come back up over the course of the season. They won't average just 2 runs a game for the next 130 games. They won't be great, but they won't stay this bad either. 

Are you sure on this?  Maybe not 2 runs a game, but how about 2.5 runs or 2.75 runs a game?  

They have 7 runs scored this year with 2 outs in the 9th when down 10+ runs, so, in reality they have 72 runs in 29 games, that is 2.48 runs a game for the entire year.  

And there is not any help coming.  They may perk up a little bit, but just getting to 3 runs a game seems like a stretch right now.

As you said, there are 130 games to go, but this is atrocious

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1 hour ago, Yoda said:

For sure. I mean they have an incredible head start. They probably have to be close to some april records. Outside of a shortened 2020, no team since the 60's has hit below .220 for the season. The Tigers are currently hitting .198. It just won't stay that low. Sub-.220 is doable. Even that will take most of the team performing near their career lows. It's hard to get an entire team to do that at the same time, which is why it hasn't happened since the 60's. 

i dont know, we could be looking at a league wide drop in offense back to the late 60s level. 

if that's the case, this team could definitely challenge some records.

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6 hours ago, RatkoVarda said:

Al has done what the owner asked; so he might get fired up to President, but I don’t think he leaves

Yes, that's true.  I'm sure Chris would be happier if the team won instead of being horrible, but my guess is that he values first and foremost having people around him who do what he wants and delivers the primary results he wants....in this case, the primary objective is profits.

I assume that a really good GM with the right personality, the ability to push a winning agenda while remaining in Chris's good graces, and the skill set to get them there would get Chris off the schnied and get him to do what is necessary to win, while also turning a profit.....but until Chris decides that he's had enough and actually reaches for that kind of GM, we will suck and suck and suck.

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2 hours ago, kj2018 said:

Are you sure on this?  Maybe not 2 runs a game, but how about 2.5 runs or 2.75 runs a game?  

They have 7 runs scored this year with 2 outs in the 9th when down 10+ runs, so, in reality they have 72 runs in 29 games, that is 2.48 runs a game for the entire year.  

And there is not any help coming.  They may perk up a little bit, but just getting to 3 runs a game seems like a stretch right now.

As you said, there are 130 games to go, but this is atrocious

I don't think you know just how little 2.75 runs per game is. Fewest runs scored between 1920 and 2019 in a 162 game season is the 463 by the WSox in 1968. That was 2.85 runs per game. The only team to ever approach that was the 1942 Phillies who only scored 394 in 151 games (2.6 r/g), largely because they only hit 40 HR all season. Tigers already have 30. 

I repeat, they can't keep this up all season. There's a massive difference between a horrible streak, which the Tigers are in, and being the most incapable offense in 100 years. They actually have some hitters who absolutely will do better as the season goes on. ****, if every Tiger hitter hit at their career lows, they'll score more than 2.75 runs game.

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1 hour ago, Buddha said:

i dont know, we could be looking at a league wide drop in offense back to the late 60s level. 

if that's the case, this team could definitely challenge some records.

IF that's the case, and that's a big IF. The players are too fast and strong these days. Offense will pick up in the summer as it always does. 

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5 minutes ago, Yoda said:

I don't think you know just how little 2.75 runs per game is. Fewest runs scored between 1920 and 2019 in a 162 game season is the 463 by the WSox in 1968. That was 2.85 runs per game. The only team to ever approach that was the 1942 Phillies who only scored 394 in 151 games (2.6 r/g), largely because they only hit 40 HR all season. Tigers already have 30. 

I repeat, they can't keep this up all season. There's a massive difference between a horrible streak, which the Tigers are in, and being the most incapable offense in 100 years. They actually have some hitters who absolutely will do better as the season goes on. ****, if every Tiger hitter hit at their career lows, they'll score more than 2.75 runs game. 

Oh I realize. And you are right, but the more you watch them flail day after day, it makes you wonder. But again, they will most likely not finish that low. 

however, there really aren’t a lot of guys on the team who have great track records ( on in Cabrera’s case, have clearly deteriorated)

it would not surprise me to see them approach all time lows on offense this year
 

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Quote

And there is not any help coming.  They may perk up a little bit, but just getting to 3 runs a game seems like a stretch right now.

 

If you would, go ahead and analysis this one out for me. Explain to me how Scoop (.491 OPS), Cabrera (.443), W.Castro (.509) will only "perk up" a little bit. JaCoby (may not be around much longer) is at a .380. Even he can't maintain and OPS that low. Outliers tend to revert back to the mean over a larger sample size. Certainly closer than they are now. Not a single player outside of Baddoo is playing at or above their career average. Most are unsustainably lower. 

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8 minutes ago, Yoda said:

IF that's the case, and that's a big IF. The players are too fast and strong these days. Offense will pick up in the summer as it always does. 

There are a lot more home runs now but a .233 MLB batting average is incredibly low even for April.  In 1968, it was .230 for April (and that's when pitchers batted in the AL).  

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