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Drafting in the Al Avila ERA (as GM & Asst. GM) Spoiler: It's not good

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6 minutes ago, ben9753 said:

Who knows, but it can’t be worse than status quo...

No doubt, I'm just curious to see if there's anyone outside of the organization worth bringing in to replace him.

My immediate inclination would be to look at Jeff Luhnow, but then again, the PR from reuniting him and Hinch would probably not be great

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7 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Neither are really particularly competent and they are just feeling their way into the future looking at what other clubs have done but neither really generating any innovation or driving hard enough to actually excel past other organizations

This !!!!

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27 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

So, let's hypothetically say (dreaming here) that Chris I pushes the button on Avila. Early to mid-season.

Then what?

Probably no change in Det  - Hinch is not the issue.  But I imagine there would be rebuild of the scouting, minor league and instructional staffs.

If you are going to do that it should be far enough in front of the next draft to give your new guy a shot at having an impact.

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Just now, Gehringer_2 said:

Probably no change in Det  - Hinch is not the issue.  But I imagine there would be rebuild of the scouting, minor league and instructional staffs.

No doubt, Hinch isn't going anywhere. Just wondering where they should be looking outside the organization to replace Al.

Because they really need to go outside the organization - they can't have a Millen/Mayhew situation and expect success

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I don't disagree with the premise of the OP, but I don't think you've articulated it well in this instance. The Tigers draft philosophy has often been suspect, at best, and downright faulty at worst. Their player development strategies and processes have lagged behind the industry. I don't question any of that.

 

That said, so much of the content of the OP actually constitutes Avila's (and the rest of the draft and development) teams' successes, not failures. If you're highlighting a big league player -- to any degree -- from the 5th, 10th, 17th round, etc., that's actually a successful pick. To highlight draft failures, you actually needed to discuss the litany of 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks that did nothing above Double-A.

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1 hour ago, mtutiger said:

No doubt, I'm just curious to see if there's anyone outside of the organization worth bringing in to replace him.

My immediate inclination would be to look at Jeff Luhnow, but then again, the PR from reuniting him and Hinch would probably not be great

I would hire Luhnow in a minute.

But I can't imagine any team will want the social media backlash from that.

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That said, I would look to other successful organizations and try to poach their up and coming minds.  Dodgers, Cardinals, Rays.  There are lots of other organizations out there who are doing things creatively and appear to be on the cutting edge.  Take some of their guys (or girls).

But what the Tigers have built needs to be gutted from top to bottom.  It's failed for decades and only succeeded because you had one guy at the top (Dombrowski) who was a ******* wizard in making trades and an owner willing to spend whatever it took to win.  You don't have either of those things now.  Go get a group of people who can reboot the entire organization from top to bottom.

Al "Peter Principle" Avila ain't it.

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40 minutes ago, Buddha said:

That said, I would look to other successful organizations and try to poach their up and coming minds.  Dodgers, Cardinals, Rays.  There are lots of other organizations out there who are doing things creatively and appear to be on the cutting edge.  Take some of their guys (or girls).

But what the Tigers have built needs to be gutted from top to bottom.  It's failed for decades and only succeeded because you had one guy at the top (Dombrowski) who was a ******* wizard in making trades and an owner willing to spend whatever it took to win.  You don't have either of those things now.  Go get a group of people who can reboot the entire organization from top to bottom.

Al "Peter Principle" Avila ain't it.

wanted: Up and coming baseball managerial talent. Prefer gifted individual currently in conflict with ownership and looking to make a change. Serious Candidates only. Apply at https://www.savethetiger.com

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51 minutes ago, Buddha said:

That said, I would look to other successful organizations and try to poach their up and coming minds.  Dodgers, Cardinals, Rays.  There are lots of other organizations out there who are doing things creatively and appear to be on the cutting edge.  Take some of their guys (or girls).

But what the Tigers have built needs to be gutted from top to bottom.  It's failed for decades and only succeeded because you had one guy at the top (Dombrowski) who was a ******* wizard in making trades and an owner willing to spend whatever it took to win.  You don't have either of those things now.  Go get a group of people who can reboot the entire organization from top to bottom.

Al "Peter Principle" Avila ain't it.

Right.

Giving Al the boot is the easy part. But they really need to go outside the organization and get new blood in here. Otherwise, we'll most likely be back here in 3-5 years

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5 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Right.

Giving Al the boot is the easy part. But they really need to go outside the organization and get new blood in here. Otherwise, we'll most likely be back here in 3-5 years

Chris promoting Al and keeping him there (and extending him) just showed me that Chris had no idea what he was doing.  There is nothing in Avila's resume to indicate he would be good at the GM job (and he hasn't been).  And there are plenty of other organizations light years ahead of the Tigers when it comes to player development and acquisition.  Instead of going out and getting someone from one of those forward thinking organizations to run your team, Illitch let Avila do it himself.

And look how well that's gone.

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It just shows me Illitch had no contacts within MLB and no idea how to run a baseball team.  He just let the guy who was already there, stay there, because he didn't know anyone else who could do it.  Daddy's boy with the silver spoon had to make a decision and he had no idea how to do it.

I mean, Yzerman fell into his lap with the Red Wings.  That was a no brainer and complete luck.  If that wasn't on the table then you know Kenny Holland would still be there signing Luke Glendinning to a multi-year deal.

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I think I noted that Matt Joyce was an actual MLB starter with a long career.    

I am not saying or expecting Al Avila to be let go mid-season.  That makes no sense, especially with my idea of blowing out the entire player personnel department - the whole thing.  It's totally broken.   And yes, it's going to be stepping backwards (mostly) even from this point, but IT AIN'T WORKING and it hasn't since before Illitch owned the team.   If you want to play this game as a mid-market, mid-payroll at best type of team  then you must have top-notch player development.   

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17 minutes ago, Buddha said:

It just shows me Illitch had no contacts within MLB

That's an interesting premise. Wouldn't you think the guy has  been going to all the league meetings practically since before he was an adult? 

I do wonder what the conversation was the day Chris took over. Did Avila make a pitch to him that persuaded him to keep him on, or was it just auto-pilot? It still sort of comes down to this: If C Ilitch has been driving the change, you would think his patience with Al should be wearing out; If Al has been driving the change and dragging Ilitch along, then we fans have a WCF level problem.

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Did Mike train Chris at all on how to handle ownership of either of these franchises? In other words, was he groomed, or was this foisted upon him?

I was pretty tuned out around the time of his death, so I don't recall. But if it was foisted, I don't know that its a WCF loyalty problem, he may just be a deer in the headlights without much of a clue of how to run a franchise. 

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42 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

That's an interesting premise. Wouldn't you think the guy has  been going to all the league meetings practically since before he was an adult? 

I do wonder what the conversation was the day Chris took over. Did Avila make a pitch to him that persuaded him to keep him on, or was it just auto-pilot? It still sort of comes down to this: If C Ilitch has been driving the change, you would think his patience with Al should be wearing out; If Al has been driving the change and dragging Ilitch along, then we fans have a WCF level problem.

no.  i think chris is the spoiled son of a multi millionaire who has never worked a day in his life for anything and had two sports franchises handed to him.

i suspect he's william clay ford part two.  the fact that he kept avila and then gave him a contract extension convinced me of that.  

remember when the lions went into philly for a playoff game and got beat by 30 points by an 8-8 eagles team led by rodney peete and the day after that debacle wayne fontes got a contract extension?

yeah.  that's chris illitch.

maybe he'll figure it out, but right now he has no clue.  

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I think Sheila Ford finally figured it out because it feels like Brad Holmes has been allowed to hire or fire anyone he wants without interference from the team.    That's what I want from the Tigers. 

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10 hours ago, Buddha said:

  i think chris is the spoiled son of a multi millionaire who has never worked a day in his life

I thought that was Atanis...:wink:

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10 hours ago, Buddha said:
10 hours ago, Buddha said:

i think chris is the spoiled son of a multi millionaire who has never worked a day in his life for anything and had two sports franchises handed to him.

 

Either this or he has no idea how to run a baseball team and trusts his front office. And if the team is not losing money and he is not getting outside pressure to make a change he won't.

I suspect he will start feeling the pressure to step in soon and make a change, as it appears they are headed towards another bottom 3 finish.. If he does nothing then that will be a very bad sign.

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Just now, Stanley70 said:

Either this or he has no idea how to run a baseball team and trusts his front office. And if the team is not losing money and he is not getting outside pressure to make a change he won't.

I suspect he will start feeling the pressure to step in soon and make a change, as it appears they are headed towards another bottom 3 finish.. If he does nothing then that will be a very bad sign.

i bet he does nothing.  gives a press conference or press release about how he knows things are tough now but he believes in the process and we have a lot of great, young players in the pipeline.

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Yzerman got handed to him on a silver platter. One of the top execs/franchise legend in the sport wanted to move home and was willing to take the job.

That ain't happening in baseball.

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I don't think Chris Ilitch is an idiot or necessarily a "spoiled kid".  He's just not devoted to his sports franchises to the extent that he cares if they win championships.  Little Caeser's under his stewardship is doing very well.  So is the rest of this business.  The organizations are linked to the entire operations of Ilitch Holdings and serve as cash cows and accounting opportunities.  It's a prioritization issue.  The sports teams are great and all but let's not go crazy.   He'll go on TV and get softball questions from the FSD... errrr... Bally's guys and tell us how competitive he is and use the other lines his marketing people crafted for him.  

The Tigers always make the safe choice.  DD is let go, bump up the next guy.   Brad leaves.... go get Gardenhire, he's a "respected name" among the old school baseball guys who think it's 1993, he's got nothing to do.  Rod/Mario are let go... just get that guy on the radio who does some studio work for us.  Let Gibby/Jack be his color guy.  The 84 fans will like that.    Need to offer the guise to compete?  Sign some free agents but not the super duper expensive ones.  Oh look, Houston won the WS... they 'tanked' for a few years and now they won!  There's our tagline.  We'll just do what they do.  Look at our 'prospects' that fell into our lap.  Aren't we great?

 

 

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I'm seeing all the comparisons with WCF, but In the grand scheme of things, it's not like the situation today is all that different than the one his Daddy had in 2002. It basically took the beginning of a historically bad season to prompt any change in this organization out of Mike I. 

Maybe this is just history repeating itself. If so, I'd just rather have the metaphorical ax fall now rather than 2-3 years from now.

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22 minutes ago, Buddha said:

i bet he does nothing.  gives a press conference or press release about how he knows things are tough now but he believes in the process and we have a lot of great, young players in the pipeline.

Did you hear they built this super duper computer system called... wait for it.... Caesar!  Get it.  Caesar.  Like Little Caesar.  Pizza Pizza.  $5 hot and ready.  Each time one of our guys has to use the computer the little guy pops up and says "pizza pizza".  All the printouts from our dot matrix printer has coupons for free crazy bread with the regular price purchase of a 3 topping pizza.  We take care of our employees.

 

 

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The one difference with WCF is that WCF really had no important job at his company, Ford Motor Company.  with Henry II his path was blocked and he was never in line to take over.  He had titles and a board position but bandwidth wise he had the space to run the Lions well if he chose to or was capable.

Chris heads a billion dollar empire and had to choose how he wants to run the Tigers.  He needs a Dombrowski as much as the business side as well as player side.  Someone to take control and run the team from top to bottom rather than a CEO who also makes the draft picks.

 

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43 minutes ago, kdog said:

Yzerman got handed to him on a silver platter. One of the top execs/franchise legend in the sport wanted to move home and was willing to take the job.

That ain't happening in baseball.

Yeah, Chris got a little lucky there.  Aint happening with the Tigers.

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