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4/11 @ 1:10 Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Indians


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15 minutes ago, kdog said:

I have Avila's track record of poor player development, his terrible record on trades, and ownership's rubber stamp of his work...

I see the exact opposite of this. Prove he has a track record of poor player development and terrible trades. I can prove otherwise. 

15 minutes ago, kdog said:

The evidence of a plan I see if lose and draft high...nothing else...

Which is what happens during a rebuild. And is evidence of... nothing. You are incorrect on this point as well, btw.

15 minutes ago, kdog said:

... I think when they spend it's going to be terrible. You can't schedule it because inevitably you just make rash decisions. They should have always had flexibility to spend in the past few years because the free agent market came back to their level. They chose to do nothing aside from dollar store bargain bin stuff...

Your first sentence, opinion only. Rash? I think it's rash and stupid to spend big bucks on this team at this point in time. I have no idea who my championship level players are, rotation, or holes. IMO, it's asinine to spend big bucks unless I know WHERE I want to put those dollars. And we don't know jack at this point in time. Signing Realmuto? Pointless and stupid.

15 minutes ago, kdog said:

... Expecting young players to develop into stars because they have talent is not a plan.

Yes it IS a plan. I mean... WTF?

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58 minutes ago, Yoda said:

Other than the fact that the org has only been doing the absolute bare minimum to put a roster together. 

Which doesn't say a thing about whether management cares about the major league product, or not.

Nor does it say a thing about whether the kids can come up and change the future of this franchise.

I stand by my statement: zero evidence.

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Matt Manning. Tarik Skubal. Casey Mize. Greg Soto. Tyler Alexander. Riley Greene. Akil Baddoo. Jeimer Candelario. Willi Castro. Isaac Paredes. Spencer Torkelson. Roberto Campos. Daz Cameron. Dan Cabrera. Dillon Dingler. Christian Santana. Franklin Perez. Kody Clemens. Trei Cruz. Colten Keith. Gage Workman. Jake Rogers. Parker Meadows. Adinso Reyes. Alex Lange.

Like the 1978-1979 Tigers... the "possible" foundation of a future Championship level team.

With draft & developed, traded for, Rule 5, etc.

Next winter, or the year after, when we've identified where the holes are in our World Series team, we sign the correct (3) FA's to get us that Ring. Rings, I mean.

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Well, if you want an indictment, there are 14 position players that have at least one PA for the Tigers in 2021. The only one even drafted by the Tigers is Greyson Greiner and his OPS is 222.  Every team has players in their system. Does any team have fewer that it has drafted that have made it? I suppose there probably is at least one team out there without a single drafted position player, but I'm not up to looking for who it may be.

And sure this get into the argument about Adames and Travis etc, who could have been here but are not.

Yes - I'm very high on Greene, but he's still vaporware until he does it at COPA. To me no other potential difference maker seems particularly close.

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4 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Well, if you want an indictment, there are 14 position players that have at least one PA for the Tigers in 2021. The only one even drafted by the Tigers is Greyson Greiner and his OPS is 222. 

Premature.

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8 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Matt Manning. Tarik Skubal. Casey Mize. Greg Soto. Tyler Alexander. Riley Greene. Akil Baddoo. Jeimer Candelario. Willi Castro. Isaac Paredes. Spencer Torkelson. Roberto Campos. Daz Cameron. Dan Cabrera. Dillon Dingler. Christian Santana. Franklin Perez. Kody Clemens. Trei Cruz. Colten Keith. Gage Workman. Jake Rogers. Parker Meadows. Adinso Reyes. Alex Lange.

Like the 1978-1979 Tigers... the "possible" foundation of a future Championship level team.

With draft & developed, traded for, Rule 5, etc.

Next winter, or the year after, when we've identified where the holes are in our World Series team, we sign the correct (3) FA's to get us that Ring. Rings, I mean.

How about we look at the draft classes from 2016, 2017, and 2018?  Those players should be around AA level or higher by now, should they not?  Avila took full control in August 2015.  They would be pretty good examples of draft and development, would they not?

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10 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Matt Manning. Tarik Skubal. Casey Mize. Greg Soto. Tyler Alexander. Riley Greene. Akil Baddoo. Jeimer Candelario. Willi Castro. Isaac Paredes. Spencer Torkelson. Roberto Campos. Daz Cameron. Dan Cabrera. Dillon Dingler. Christian Santana. Franklin Perez. Kody Clemens. Trei Cruz. Colten Keith. Gage Workman. Jake Rogers. Parker Meadows. Adinso Reyes. Alex Lange.

I have highlighted the players who have become decent mlb players.

The rest have not developed yet or are closed to washing out.

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6 minutes ago, Casimir said:

How about we look at the draft classes from 2016, 2017, and 2018?  Those players should be around AA level or higher by now, should they not?  Avila took full control in August 2015.  They would be pretty good examples of draft and development, would they not?

Sure, it can be argued that in his first couple of drafts he couldn't go beyond the system he inherited, but at some point it has to start counting on Avila's ledger. This year? Next year? Even if you draft a kid at 18 he should be ready at 22. (guys who don't make the bigs pretty young are pretty much only ever role players) That is 4 years - less for a college player. Give Al one more for COVID and that's five. He needs Greene to make it this year to have anything to show for the last 5 on the position front. I'll cut him some additional slack if Manning, Mize, Skubal, all end up #3 or better starters. But that really  has to begin now as well.

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6 minutes ago, kdog said:

I have highlighted the players who have become decent mlb players.

The rest have not developed yet or are closed to washing out.

Jeimer isn't even one of ours.

Al can't take credit for building on other teams drafts when his argument is that they are trying to build a sustainable system based on their own drafts. If he wants to take credit as a trader fine, but that is not his own yardstick for this rebuild.

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20 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Matt Manning. Tarik Skubal. Casey Mize. Greg Soto. Tyler Alexander. Riley Greene. Akil Baddoo. Jeimer Candelario. Willi Castro. Isaac Paredes. Spencer Torkelson. Roberto Campos. Daz Cameron. Dan Cabrera. Dillon Dingler. Christian Santana. Franklin Perez. Kody Clemens. Trei Cruz. Colten Keith. Gage Workman. Jake Rogers. Parker Meadows. Adinso Reyes. Alex Lange.

Like the 1978-1979 Tigers... the "possible" foundation of a future Championship level team.

With draft & developed, traded for, Rule 5, etc.

Next winter, or the year after, when we've identified where the holes are in our World Series team, we sign the correct (3) FA's to get us that Ring. Rings, I mean.

Candelario is the only one who has seemingly become a proven player.   None of those other guys have proven a thing yet.    

Back in 2003 I bought this big book with all the baseball prospects.  It had detailed breakdowns of every organization.  It was something I would read when I did overnnights in Detroit radio and Law & Order rerun weren't on TV.    I found that book a couple of years ago and every organization had a list like you just posted and the best ones had maybe 3 of them work out as good mlb players, the rest never made it to the majors or were marginal players (I figure 6 to 7 years is enough time to measure it).    Out of all those guys, we'd be fortunate if 4 of them made a positive impact and with the Tigers record of not being able to develop their talent, we'd be lucky if it was 4. 

Every team can claim a list of great prospects like you just did,  it proves nothing because none of them have done much of anything. 

Yes, the Candelario trade is looking like his best trade.   How are the Verlander guys working out?   The JD Martinez guys?   The guy they got for Upton?  

The roster is garbage.   

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On the player development front, I've been wondering for awhile now why no MLB team has really dramatically improved/increased the resources available to their minor leaguers.  MiLB should be comparable to NCAA football.  Give the players access to free housing, food, nutritionists, first class weight rooms, film rooms, etc.  Take care of fulfilling the base of Maslow's hierarchy and the ability to focus on and improve baseball skills should only increase.  Instead we rely on host families and/or pay players peanuts so they have to flop together in an apartment and leave the rest up to chance.

It'd be a cheap investment relative to other operational costs in the game, and with the number of MiLB affiliates trimmed there would be no time like the present to get this done.

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1 hour ago, Casimir said:

How about we look at the draft classes from 2016, 2017, and 2018?  Those players should be around AA level or higher by now, should they not?  Avila took full control in August 2015.  They would be pretty good examples of draft and development, would they not?

and let's not forget that avila was a major player in the scouting department of the rganization before those drafts too.  he's been involved in this mess of an organization for a long long time.

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1 hour ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Which doesn't say a thing about whether management cares about the major league product, or not.

Nor does it say a thing about whether the kids can come up and change the future of this franchise.

I stand by my statement: zero evidence.

well, you've certainly convinced yourself. 

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It is damning how we have been rebuilding for almost 5 years now and when somebody like Cabrera goes down we have no prospect ready to fill the void,  instead have to bring up a journeyman we found off the waiver wire.   

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8 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

It is damning how we have been rebuilding for almost 5 years now and when somebody like Cabrera goes down we have no prospect ready to fill the void,  instead have to bring up a journeyman we found off the waiver wire.   

The suggested window was 3-10 years, so this Cabrera thing is on the early end of that range.

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Everything is going to be fine.  In three years, there will be 14 teams in the playoffs.  Ilitch will spend enough to get them 85 wins.  They'll get a wild card and a three-game first round series at Yankee Stadium.  

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2 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Everything is going to be fine.  In three years, there will be 14 teams in the playoffs.  Ilitch will spend enough to get them 85 wins.  They'll get a wild card and a three-game first round series at Yankee Stadium.  

Gross.

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1 hour ago, Motor City Sonics said:

Every team can claim a list of great prospects like you just did,  it proves nothing because none of them have done much of anything. 

...

The roster is garbage.   

MOST of those guys haven't tasted an ounce of success above AA ball. Several are already nearing washout status since they really haven't had much success even in AAA. The ones that have made it to the big leagues only Candelario, and MAYBE Castro, have shown they have futures as actual major league contributors. I suppose you could count a couple of the relievers as well, but they're ultra small samples, and relief pitching is volatile anyhow.

The handful of supposed gem prospects that have actually made it to the show (Paredes, Mize, and Skubal) have all struggled pretty mightily. Not writing them off of course, but for guys ranked in the top 100 prospects it'd be nice to see one of them come up and actually play WELL to start their career before we're penciling them in as the foundation of the next WS team.

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45 minutes ago, hammb said:

MOST of those guys haven't tasted an ounce of success above AA ball. Several are already nearing washout status since they really haven't had much success even in AAA. The ones that have made it to the big leagues only Candelario, and MAYBE Castro, have shown they have futures as actual major league contributors. I suppose you could count a couple of the relievers as well, but they're ultra small samples, and relief pitching is volatile anyhow.

The handful of supposed gem prospects that have actually made it to the show (Paredes, Mize, and Skubal) have all struggled pretty mightily. Not writing them off of course, but for guys ranked in the top 100 prospects it'd be nice to see one of them come up and actually play WELL to start their career before we're penciling them in as the foundation of the next WS team.

I will pause on Parades, Mize and Skubal because they all should have been in the minors all season last year but we had no minors and I think it retarded their progress by a lot.   I understand why the Tigers brought them up, so they could do something competitive.   It was a tough spot for everyone involved.  I think if Mize and Skubal had pitched in real game situations they would have been better-equipped to face major league hitters, but they HAD to get some real work in last year.    Parades was overmatched, but to me his potential would be a competent starting player who never sniffs an All Star Game.  

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2 hours ago, Casimir said:

How about we look at the draft classes from 2016...

Let's start with 2016:

Matt Manning - 1st round - an unrefined HS pitcher/ prospect with a big arm but mechanical flaws, lack of control, and a lot of work needed on secondary pitches. An expected long lead time before hitting the majors. And... lost most of 2020 development due to Covid. 2021: On the precipice of breaking into MLB as a top-of-the-rotation starter with ace material, and wait for it... extensive development by the organization with mechanical adjustments (I believe these were minor IIRC but necessary), control improvements, refinement (consistency?) of his curveball, and development of other off-speed pitches (I believe just a changeup and still needs work...).

NO 2nd or 3rd round picks. Hmmm, this would seem to be a detriment to Avila in draft & develop and I believe... not his fault.

4th round Funkhauser, 8th round Jacob Robson, 12th round Danny Woodrow, 15th round John Schreiber. These 4 have reached AAA or have had cups of coffee in MLB. Unknown as whether they are all 4A players, or bench/ reliever guys/ contribute a little or a lot in MLB. Can't rule them out of the MLB, but unknowns at best at this point.

6th round Bryan Garcia - was a closer in college and may or may not be able to do that in MLB. He spent all or a portion of 2019-2020-2021 in the BP and had a nice year in 2020 but has started slow this year. He has a big arm and is only 25... looks like he could be a key guy in the BP but his upside I think is unknown at this point.

 

What more would you expect? A high-1st round HS pitcher, no 2nd or 3rd, later round (6th) late-inning reliever in MLB, and possibly some additional bench or reliever or 4A guys?

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1 hour ago, Yoda said:

well, you've certainly convinced yourself. 

I'm not convinced of anything at this point except it's too early to make judgement calls.

I've stated this multiple times... which doesn't mean that others won't have different opinions and believe this management team must be judged right now, immediately, but... IMO... it's just too early.

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