Jump to content
bobrob2004

2021 Preseason Predictions

Recommended Posts

Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #1 – Jose Miguel Cabrera Torres

So the 2020 “season” was…uh, what’s the word for it?  It happened.  The Tigers only played 58 games against only teams located in the Central Division, of which only 4 of them were in the American League.  Opening Day was on July 24th.  53 percent of the league went to the playoffs. Some games were only 7 innings long.  In the case of extra innings, a runner was placed on 2nd base because that was the only way any Tiger hitter could get on.  Are we still playing baseball? 

Ok, so extraordinary circumstances permitted these strange rules and we are lucky we were able to have any baseball at all.  But when it comes to analyzing these stats and predicting the future, we may as well just throw them out the window.  What exactly can be useful about these 2020 season stats? 

Miguel Cabrera’s last great season came five years ago when he batted .316/.393/.563.  Since then, he has batted .267/.342/.406 with a very average 100 OPS+.  Batting average has gone down, yet he still has a good to great walk rate.  But where has all the power gone?  In 2020, Cabrera had an isolated power of .167, the first time it was over .150 since 2016.  This is an encouraging sign.  Can it translate over a full season?  He is another year older and new manager A.J. HInch has entertained the thought of actually playing him at 1B (putting him on defense!  Can you imagine?).  No worries though, as I’m sure he’s in the greatest shape of his career. 

Miggy has also had durability issues.  He hasn’t logged 500 AB since 2016 (469 in 2017; 134 in 2018; and 493 in 2019).  However, he did log the most AB of any Tigers hitter in 2020.  If we started the season 3 months late this year, he might be able to do it again.

Bottom line, Cabrera isn’t what he once was and we will be lucky if he has another average season this year.

Milestone watch: Miguel Cabrera has a reasonable chance to get to 3000 career hits and 500 career home runs this year.

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 552 AB | .265/.342/.438 | 23 HR | 80 RBI | 2 SB | 61 BB | 137 K

ZiPS – 434 AB | .256/.320/.396 | 16 HR | 64 RBI | 1 SB | 41 BB | 101 K

THE BAT – 543 AB | .259/.329/.403 | 17 HR | 69 RBI | 1 SB | 55 BB | 123 K

 RotoChamp – 518 AB | .264/.336/.419 | 19 HR | 73 RBI | 1 SB | 55 BB | 121 K

CBS Sports – 551 AB | .281/.362/.463 | 27 HR | 89 RBI | 2 SB | 68 BB | 125 K

ESPN – 469 AB | .260/.331/.392 | 15 HR | 61 RBI | 1 SB | 49 BB | 113 K

My Prediction:

2020 Prediction – 478 AB | .276/.350/.421 | 14 HR | 61 RBI |0 SB | 54 BB | 108 K

2020 Actual – 204 AB | .250/.329/.417 | 10 HR | 35 RBI | 1 SB | 24 BB | 51 K

 

2021 Prediction – 467 AB | .268/.338/.394 | 14 HR | 67 RBI | 0 SB | 49 BB | 112 K

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BetMGM Michigan $600 Risk-Free bet

BetMGM Michigan Sports Betting
Michigan online sports betting is now available! Start betting at BetMGM Michigan now and get a $600 risk-free bet bonus at their online sportsbook & casino.

Claim $600 risk-free bet at BetMGM Michigan Now

I don’t get it. Is this a whole thread where you want us to predict what Miguel will do?

What about the traditional prediction thread where we guess final standings and such?

Why did you write an entire article?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, thefunk said:

I don’t get it. Is this a whole thread where you want us to predict what Miguel will do?

What about the traditional prediction thread where we guess final standings and such?

Why did you write an entire article?

It's something I've been doing since the days of the MLB.com forums.  I make predictions for each of the starting players and others usually give their predictions too.  Just something to discuss before the regular season.  

Someone else usually does one for the standings predictions. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes I remember Bob"s prediction from years past and he's is pretty bloody accurate if I remember correctly. 

 

Looking forward to the rest of the team.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i always look forward to bob's preseason prediction thread.  its pretty fun.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, Buddha said:

i always look forward to bob's preseason prediction thread.  its pretty fun.

You know you've made it when Buddha looks forward to your thread. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, clearly, Bob is Buddha. 

I predict Buddha won't like any more threads this season. 

And other team's players will do really well against us. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Biff Mayhem said:

What about Buddha?

 

"he's the best"!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Buddha said:

"he's the best"!

Said no one ever.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Except maybe me.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #2 – Jonathan Rufino Jezus Schoop

Jonny Schoop had a pretty good year in 2020.  Statistically, it was his 2nd best year behind his all-star 2017 season.  His batting average was .278 and his wRC+ was at 114.  However, his walk rate (4.5 percent) and strikeout rate (22 percent) were right around his career average.

The stat that sticks out the most was his ground ball rate at 51.2 percent.  This is the only time that it has reached over 50 percent in his career (ignoring the 5 games he played in 2013).  This is most likely a small sample size effect of not playing a full season (he did only play in 44 of the Tigers’ 58 games) or it could be a conscious decision to change his approach (Comerica Park isn’t a bandbox that Camden Yards is).  Assuming the later, his batting average could be slightly inflated as his batting average on ground balls was .250, up from .217 in 2019 and .166 in 2018. 

More ground balls results in less fly balls and thus less home runs (and power overall).  His ISO in 2020 was .198 (down from .217 in 2019).  And his extra base hit rate was only 7.9 percent in 2020, the lowest it has been since his rookie year in 2014 (7.1 percent).  In 2019, his extra base hit rate was 10.1 percent and his career mark is 9.2 percent.  This isn’t a good sign, but small sample size beware.

Jon Schoop is entering his age 30 season and is at the point where his numbers could start to decline.  If he once again has a ground ball rate over 50 percent with more realistic results in batting average, it could result in a disappointing year.  Consider the fact that just three years ago he hit .233/.266/.416 with an 80 wRC+ might be closer to his current talent level than what we saw in 2020. 

 

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 476 AB | .253/.301/.452 | 22 HR | 69 RBI | 2 SB | 26 BB | 122 K

ZiPS – 502 AB | .269/.309/.468 | 24 HR | 75 RBI | 1 SB | 22 BB | 114 K

THE BAT – 489 AB | .262/.311/.457 | 22 HR | 70 RBI | 28 BB | 116 K

 RotoChamp – 472 AB | .263/.305/.466 | 23 HR | 68 RBI | 24 BB | 115 K

CBS Sports – 493 AB | .264/.313/.434 | 19 HR | 58 RBI | 29 BB | 129 K

ESPN – 450 AB | .264/.308/.467 | 22 HR | 64 RBI | 21 BB | 108 K

My Prediction:

2020 Prediction – 542 AB | .253/.295/.448 | 25 HR | 69 RBI | 1 SB | 24 BB | 139 K

2020 Actual – 162 AB | .278/.324/.475 | 8 HR | 23 RBI | 0 SB | 8 BB | 39 K

 

2021 Prediction – 425 AB | .240/.281/.409 | 19 HR | 61 RBI | 1 SB | 20 BB | 109 K

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #3 – Spencer Ketcham Turnbull

Spencer Turnbull was hands down the Tigers best starting pitcher in 2020.  The top 3 ERA starting pitchers for the Tigers were Turnbull at 3.97, Tarik Skubal at 5.63 and Matt Boyd at 6.71.  Some other selected stats:

K/9: 8.1, good

BB/9: 4.6, very poor

HR/9: 0.3, excellent

One stat that sticks out for Tigers pitchers is that the strikeout rates are now back up.  The top 4 Tigers starters, Spencer Turnbull, Tarik Skubal, Matt Boyd, and Casey Mize all had K/9 of 8+.  Sure, they were small sample sizes.  But given the minor league performances of Turnbull, Skubal, and Mize, there’s no reason not to believe they can’t keep high strikeout rates in the Majors.  This is very encouraging as these are meant to be the core of the rotation for the next few years.

Now the bad news.  The walk rate of Turnbull was very poor and his home run rate seems to be unsustainable.  Both could be attributed to the small sample size.  However, the wildness is there as in 2019 Turnbull led the American League in hit batsmen at 16.  If he can keep his stikeouts up and homeruns down, the walk rate isn’t that big of a deal, especially if he can lower it down to 3.6 BB/9 like in 2019.  His FIP was at 3.49 last year, which is good, but his xFIP was at 4.53, which shows the unsustainability of his home run rate.

As for his pitching repertoire, he threw more percentages of changeups (9 percent) and less curveballs (4.2 percent) in 2020 than he did in 2019 (3 percent and 12.1 percent, respectfully) as he is figuring out what works and doesn’t work at the Major League level.  Add in a new pitching coach Chris Fetter and he could take big steps in 2021. 

 

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 147 IP | 8-10 W/L | 4.49 ERA | 1.39 WHIP | 136 K | 60 BB

ZiPS – 141 2/3 IP | 10-9 W/L | 4.51 ERA | 1.40 WHIP | 138 K | 58 BB

THE BAT – 149 IP | 8-10 W/L | 4.40 ERA | 1.37 WHIP | 133 K | 59 BB

 RotoChamp – 153 IP | 9-9 W/L | 4.29 ERA | 1.39 WHIP | 143 K | 63 BB

CBS Sports – N/A

ESPN – 156 IP | 7 W | 4.27 ERA | 1.37 WHIP | 146 K | 65 BB

My Prediction:

2020 Prediction – 152 1/3 IP | 8-8 W/L | 4.37 ERA | 1.392 WHIP | 151 K | 62 BB

2020 Actual – 56 2/3 IP | 4-4 W/L | 3.97 ERA | 1.341 WHIP | 51 K | 29 BB

 

2021 Prediction – 157 2/3 IP | 9-8 W/L | 4.11 ERA | 1.395 WHIP | 159 K | 71 BB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #4 – Jeimer No-name Candelario

After a disappointing 2019 season, Jeimer Candelario was off to a rough start again in 2020.  In his first 70 PA, he hit .242/.286/.424, but in his final 136 PA he hit .328/.412/.546 and finished as one of the Tigers better hitters with a 135 OPS+ (only Willi Castro’s 150 and C.J. Cron’s 139 were better). 

Candelario’s power was the best it has ever been in his career.  His .205 ISO and 10.2 percent extra base hit rate were career highs.  Given a full season at the same home run pace and Candelario would have easily surpassed 20 home runs.  He showed glimpses of this power in 2018, but that came with a .224 batting average.  In 2020, his batting average was a career high .297. 

Now comes the real question.  How much of this is sustainable during a full 162 game season?  His batting average on balls in play was .372, which screams unsustainable.  In 2018 and 2019, his BABIP was .279 and .262 and his batting averages were .224 and 203 respectfully.  Even if there was a mechanical change, .372 BABIP is just not a realistic number that can be repeated.  And as much that has changed with his hitting stats, his walk rate (9.7 percent) and strikeout rate (23.8 percent) are pretty much on par with his career totals. The walk rate is still an impressive number, but it decreased from 2018 (10.7 percent) and 2019 (11.1 percent).

The good news is that Candelario is entering his age 27 season, an age where a lot of hitters are entering their prime.  He can take the stuff that he worked in 2020 and hone them into a good hitter for the next few years, but probably not with a .300 batting average.  A .250 hitter with 20 home run power with a decent walk rate is still a valuable #2 hitter.  Although given the positions that he plays, 1B/3B, you can probably do better on the open market. (That's my fantasy baseball advice to you).  

 

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 515 AB | .245/.336/.434 | 21 HR | 72 RBI | 4 SB | 64 BB | 147 K

ZiPS – 516 AB | .252/.331/.442 | 20 HR | 72 RBI | 3 SB | 56 BB | 143 K

THE BAT – 517 AB | .239/.323/.413 | 18 HR | 65 RBI | 3 SB | 59 BB | 138 K

 RotoChamp – 509 AB | .248/.331/.430 | 19 HR | 68 RBI | 3 SB | 59 BB | 141 K

CBS Sports – 543 AB | .274/.352/.475 | 23 HR | 81 RBI | 3 SB | 62 BB | 140 K

ESPN – 528 AB | .252/.337/.430 | 18 HR | 66 RBI | 3 SB | 61 BB | 145 K

My Prediction:

2020 Prediction – 343 AB | .210/.300/.344 | 8 HR | 31 RBI | 2 SB | 37 BB | 101 K

2020 Actual – 185 AB | /.297/.369/.503 | 7 HR | 29 RBI | 1 SB | 20 BB | 49 K

 

2021 Prediction – 479 AB | .244/.328/.424 | 17 HR | 64 RBI | 3 SB | 56 BB |134 K

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #5 – Matthew Robert Boyd

It was not a good year for Matt Boyd.  He led the league in losses with 7, had a 6.71 ERA and for the second year in a row led the league in home runs allowed.  He has shown glimpses of hope in the past (in his first 14 starts in 2018 he had a 3.63 ERA and in his first 14 games in 2019 he had a 3.08 ERA), but ultimately floundered in the 2nd half.  In 2020, we had no 1st half, so we just got the dreadful 2nd half (in his final 17 starts in 2018 he had a 5.04 ERA and in his final 18 games in 2019, he had a 5.81 ERA).

Matt Boyd is entering is age 30 season and one has to wonder if he will ever have a consistent enough season.  His strikeout rate is a positive (9 K/9), but he may not see double digits like he did in 2019 (11.6 K/9).  As mentioned above, home runs allowed is a huge problem (2.2 HR/9) and walks were also up in 2020 (3.3 BB/9 compared to 2.4 BB/9 in 2019). 

Boyd’s fastball continues to decline.  Look at the results over the past few years on 4-seamers:

2018: .243 BAA | .448 SLG

2019: .269 BAA | .519 SLG

2020: .316 BAA | .632 SLG

And yet he continued to throw it about half the time, 49.5% in 2020; 50.9% in 2019; 38.9% in 2018 (according to Pitch Info). 

It’s hard to know what Boyd will do under a new pitching coach.  It’s also hard to be optimistic, but he couldn’t do worse than he did last year.  Could he?

 

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 172 IP | 9-11 W/L | 4.49 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 177 K | 55 BB

ZiPS – 164 1/3 IP | 11-11 W/L | 4.55 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 179 K | 49 BB

THE BAT – 166 IP | 9-11 W/L | 4.28 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 172 K | 53 BB

 RotoChamp – 169 IP | 9-11 W/L | 4.53 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 178 K | 53 BB

CBS Sports – 147 2/3 IP | 9-12 W/L | 4.75 ERA | 1.40 WHIP | 172 K | 50 BB

ESPN – 182 IP | 8 W | 4.55 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 193 K | 60 BB

My Prediction:

2020 Prediction – 186 IP | 12-9 W/L | 3.92 ERA | 1.194 WHIP | 218 K | 51 BB

2020 Actual – 60 1/3 IP | 3-7 W/L | 6.71 ERA | 1.475 WHIP | 60 K | 22 BB

 

2021 Prediction – 171 IP | 7-12 W/L | 5.11 ERA | 1.374 WHIP | 158 K | 59 BB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #6 – Robert Edward Grossman

With very disappointing seasons of Christin Stewart (.167/.224/.300) and Daz Cameron (.193/.220/.263) the Tigers needed to strengthen their outfield.  One signing was veteran player Robert Grossman, who briefly played under manager A.J. Hinch in 2015 with Houston.  Grossman spent most of the 2015 in the minor leagues after playing 103 games in the majors (.233/.337/.333 with a 92 OPS+) one year earlier.  In 2015, he hit .143/.222/.245 with a 31 OPS+ in 24 games in the big leagues and was promptly released.  Minnesota signed in and he had his best year to date in 2016, hitting .280/.386/.443 with a 124 OPS+ in 99 big league games.  He has since hit around league average until 2020 when he hit .241/.344/.482 with a career high 130 OPS+.

Robbie Grossman’s biggest strength is his ability to get on base.  His walk rate is routinely above 10 percent, being as high as over 14 percent in his first two years with the Twins.  With his above average OBP and ability to get double digit stolen bases makes him a good fit for the leadoff spot.  Tigers’ leadoff hitters had a combined .289 OBP last year with only 5 stolen bases. 

Rob Grossman displayed surprising power in 2020.  He had a career highs in SLG (.482) and ISO (.241).  His previous highs were both in 2016, .443 SLG and .163 ISO.  He hit two more home runs in 2020 than he did in 2019 despite getting 290 less PA.  Now the question remains if this power is for real and will he be able to carry this in 2021, or was it just a small sample fluke?

Some players mature later than others.  While Grossman is entering his age 31 season, he is still in his prime years. Even if it’s late to have a breakout year in power like he did in 2020, it’s not impossible that he can’t keep it up.  I’m going to be cautiously optimistic here. 

 

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 450 AB | .254/.354/.411 | 13 HR | 55 RBI | 10 SB | 67 BB | 100 K

ZiPS – 401 AB | .249/.343/.406 | 11 HR | 47 RBI | 9 SB | 55 BB | 87 K

THE BAT – 460 AB | .243/.338/.373 | 10 HR | 49 RBI | 8 SB | 63 BB | 99 K

 RotoChamp – 448 AB | .250/.346/.400 | 12 HR | 51 RBI | 10 SB | 63 BB | 97 K

CBS Sports – N/A

ESPN – 413 AB | .247/.345/.392 | 10 HR | 46 RBI | 9 SB | 59 BB | 83 K

My Prediction:

2020 Prediction – N/A

2020 Actual – 166 AB | .241/.344/.482 | 8 HR | 23 RBI | 8 SB | 21 BB |38 K

 

2021 Prediction – 474 AB | .247/.342/.439 | 17 HR | 56 RBI | 15 SB | 66 BB | 110 K

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #7 – Tarik Daniel Skubal

The Tigers have six potential starting pitchers:

Spencer Turnbull

Matt Boyd

Tarik Skubal

Casey Mize

Michael Fulmer

Jose Urena

But only room for a five man rotation.  That means one pitcher will either get moved to the bullpen or sent to AAA.  With only one year of Major League experience, the odd one out could be Tarik Skubal, who had a 5.63 ERA with a 3.1 BB/9, 10.4 K/9, and a 1.22 WHIP in 32 innings.  However, the Tigers seem committed again to their young starters with the only free agent signing capable of taking a rotation spot being Jose Urena, and it’s no guarantee that he will take one.

Tarik Skubal led the Tigers starters in strikeout rate (26.7 percent), WHIP (1.22), and batting average against (.231) and was second in walk rate (8.2 percent), ERA (5.63), and FIP (5.75).  Just like several other Tiger pitchers, the home run ball was a big weakness.  He had a HR/9 of 2.5 and a 20 percent HR/FB ratio. 

Despite the unremarkable ERA, Skubal was a highlight of the rotation last year, mainly due to the strikeouts.  In AA in 2019, Skubal had a 48.2 percent strikeout rate, so the strikeouts are real.  Also based on his minor league numbers, the walk rate and home run rate should also improve.  He is developing a splitter, which shows that he is willing to adjust. This is a good sign from a young player and that gives me an optimistic outlook, especially if it results in less home runs and walks.

https://www.blessyouboys.com/2021/2/25/22298019/detroit-tigers-tarik-skubal-2021-player-previews-spring-training

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 105 IP | 6-7 W/L | 4.37 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 114 K | 42 BB

ZiPS – 110 IP | 7-8 W/L | 4.91 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 119 K | 44 BB

THE BAT – 91 IP | 5-8 W/L | 4.39 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 98 K | 35 BB

 RotoChamp – N/A

CBS Sports – N/A

ESPN – 133 IP | 6 W | 4.26 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 138 K | 49 BB

My Prediction:

2020 Prediction – N/A

2020 Actual – 32 IP | 1-4 W/L | 5.63 ERA | 1.219 WHIP | 37 K | 11 BB

 

2021 Prediction – 125 1/3 IP | 7-5 W/L | 4.02 ERA | 1.205 WHIP | 146 K | 36 BB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I suspect Teheran will make the rotation. Maybe start with Turnbull, Boyd, Skubal, Urena and Teheran?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Dan Gilmore said:

I suspect Teheran will make the rotation. Maybe start with Turnbull, Boyd, Skubal, Urena and Teheran?

I haven't even considered him because he's not on the 40-man roster.  But it looks like Renato Nunez will make the team at 1B, so it could happen.  

I still not convinced that Mazara will make the team and he is on the 40-man roster.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

that's a pretty bullish prediction on skubal.  i like it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes on Nunez, I don’t think Mazara is that good, but I am fine with dropping Stewart of the 40 man for him. There are others that could go to make room for Teheran (not that I think he’s great either).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #8 – Willi Rafael Castro Capellan

The Tigers best hitter of 2020 by far was Willi Castro.  He led the team in batting average (.349), on base percentage (.381), slugging percentage (.550) and OPS+ (150).  And he is only entering his age 24 season.  The fact that he has the stats to bat in the middle of the order and play at a premium position of shortstop is nothing short of astonishing.  Now how much of this is real talent and how much of it is small sample fluke?

Willi Castro has only ever displayed this power in the minor leagues once, in the 26 games in 2018 in AA right after the Tigers traded for him (.238 ISO, .562 SLG).  In 2019 in AAA, Castro had a .166 ISO and a .467 SLG and in the Majors, he had a .110 ISO and a .340 SLG.  Although rare, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Castro could have all of a sudden develop real power and be able to carry that in the future.  What is unbelievable is maintaining a .448 batting average in balls in play.  That’s not going to happen.

Castro’s walk rate has never exceeded 7 percent in the minors and was only 5 percent last year.  His strikeout rate is also high, 30.9 percent in 2019, 27.1 percent in 2020, and around 17-21 percent in the minors.  If Castro is going to succeed in the Majors, it’s going to be because of his high batting average and keeping maintaining some of his power he showed in 2020.

 

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 495 AB | .264/.315/.418 | 14 HR | 61 RBI | 9 SB | 31 BB | 123 K

ZiPS – 556 AB | .277/.322/.437 | 16 HR | 72 RBI | 10 SB | 31 BB | 140 K

THE BAT – 458 AB | .254/.305/.398 | 11 HR | 50 RBI | 7 SB | 30 BB | 117 K

 RotoChamp – 487 AB | .267/.313/.417 | 13 HR | 59 RBI | 9 SB | 30 BB | 126 K

CBS Sports – 582 AB | .299/.348/.488 | 24 HR | 82 RBI | 9 SB | 43 BB | 144 K

ESPN – 387 AB | .282/.335/.439 | 9 HR | 47 RBI | 10 SB | 25 BB | 95 K

My Prediction:

2020 Prediction – N/A

2020 Actual – 129 AB | .349/.381/.550 | 6 HR | 24 RBI | 0 SB | 7 BB |38 K

 

2021 Prediction – 508 AB | .272/.315/.423 | 15 HR | 73 RBI | 4 SB | 30 BB | 140 K

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #9 – Wilson Abraham Ramos Campos

With the departure of Austin Romine and absolutely no progress from Grayson Greiner and Jake Rogers, the Tigers needed to sign another catcher.  Enter former all-star Wilson Ramos. 

From 2016-2019, Wilson Ramos was an above average player.  He hit .294/.346/.463 with an OPS+ of 115 and two all-star appearances.  However, in 2020, he only hit .239/.297/.387 with an 88 OPS+.  This could be just a small sample size, or it just might be the start of a decline.  Ramos is on the wrong side of 30 and catchers do tend to decline faster than other players. 

One stat that sticks out is the ground ball rate.  His career average is 55.4 percent and was as high as 62.4 percent in 2019, when he hit .288.  Ramos isn’t known for his speed, so it’s amazing that he has been able to have a pretty high average while hitting the ball on the ground at 50-60 percent of the time.  In 2020, his batting average was at .239, a more reasonable batting average for a non-speedster with that many ground balls. 

The Buffalo has spent the majority of his time in the National League.  He did spend a year and a half in Tampa Bay, where he hit .281/.323/.471, compared to his career stats of .274/.321/.434.  There’s not much difference, so there probably won’t be an adjustment period for switching leagues.  Although, I do believe he is at the start of a decline, so I see more of the same from 2020.

 

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 266 AB | .279/.337/.451 | 11 HR | 38 RBI | 1 SB | 22 BB | 49 K

ZiPS – 404 AB | .270/.321/.403 | 12 HR | 57 RBI | 0 SB | 29 BB | 69 K

THE BAT – 269 AB | .267/.326/.401 | 8 HR | 34 RBI | 0 SB | 23 BB | 48 K

 RotoChamp – 307 AB | .270/.327/.417 | 10 HR | 43 RBI | 1 SB | 25 BB | 56 K

CBS Sports – 377 AB | .257/.316/.395 | 12 HR | 48 RBI | 0 SB | 31 BB | 84 K

ESPN – 362 AB | .279/.336/.434 | 13 HR | 58 RBI | 0 SB | 29 BB | 58 K

My Prediction:

2020 Prediction – N/A

2020 Actual – 142 AB | .239/.297/.387 | 5 HR | 15 RBI | 0 SB | 10 BB | 31 K

 

2021 Prediction – 344 AB | .241/.293/.369 | 9 HR | 38 RBI | 0 SB | 23 BB | 79 K

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Ramos hits like that I doubt he finishes the year with us. Might as well play Greiner and Rogers and see what we don't have.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #10 – JaCoby Mylon Jones

JaCoby Jones has been with the Tigers for the past 5 years, one of the longest current tenured Tigers – only Miguel Cabrera, Matt Boyd, Daniel Norris, and Buck Farmer have been here longer.  And during that time he has only appeared in over 100 games once, in 2018.  See, durability is not one of JaCoby Jones’ strong suits (even in 2020, he only appeared in slightly over half the games the Tigers played).

2020 was JaCoby Jones’ age 28 season, an age where most players have their best seasons, and this was certainly the case for Jones.  He had career highs in batting average (.268), on-base percentage (.333), slugging percentage (.515), and OPS+ (127).  He only hit 5 home runs due to the small sample size, but he had a 4.6 percent home run rate, and a 13 percent extra base hit rate, both career highs.  Is the power going to be consistent, though?  He has steadily increased his power over the last few years:

2018: .156 ISO

2019: .195 ISO

2020: .247 ISO

I believe that the small sample size of 2020 is inflating his power a bit, but I could see him closer to his 2019 power numbers.

Another thing that could be inflated in 2020 is his batting average.  Going into the 2020, Jones had a .211 career batting average.  Jumping to .268 is a big leap, especially given his .356 BABIP.  His batting average of .350 on fly balls seems to be more luck than talent.  I expect a regression in 2021.

 

Experts’ Predictions/Projections:

Steamer – 441 AB | .228/.296/.388 | 14 HR | 51 RBI | 10 SB | 35 BB | 148 K

ZiPS – 392 AB | .235/.299/.416 | 14 HR | 43 RBI | 9 SB | 28 BB | 129 K

THE BAT – 458 AB | .229/.298/.394 | 15 HR | 52 RBI | 10 SB | 38 BB | 149 K

 RotoChamp – 459 AB | .233/.302/.410 | 16 HR | 50 RBI | 10 SB | 35 BB | 152 K

CBS Sports – 439 AB | .255/.324/.431 | 16 HR | 52 RBI | 7 SB | 40 BB | 127 K

ESPN – 275 AB | .236/.304/.418 | 9 HR | 27 RBI | 7 SB | 20 BB | 91 K

My Prediction:

2020 Prediction – 410 AB | .212/.276/.415 | 16 HR | 37 RBI | 14 SB | 32 BB | 140 K

2020 Actual – 97 AB | .268/.333/.515 | 5 HR | 14 RBI | 1 SB | 7 BB | 34 K

 

2021 Prediction – 383 AB | .225/.286/.415 | 13 HR | 32 RBI | 8 SB | 25 BB | 124 K

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All predictions for Jacoby seem bad so if true this is probably his last year in Detroit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Michigan Sports Betting Offer

Michigan launched online sports betting and casino apps on Friday, January 22, 2021. We have selected the top Michigan sportsbooks and casinos that offer excellent bonus offers. Terms and conditions apply.

BetRivers Michigan - Get a 100% up to $250 deposit bonus at their online sportsbook & casino.

Click Here to claim $250 deposit bonus at BetRivers Michigan For Signing Up Now

FanDuel Michigan - Get a $1,000 risk-free bet at FanDuel Michigan on your first bet.

Click Here to claim $1,000 Risk-Free Bet at FanDuel Michigan

BetMGM Michigan - Get a $600 risk-free bet at the BetMGM online casino & sportsbook

Click Here to claim $600 risk-free bet at BetMGM Michigan

   


×
×
  • Create New...