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Lions and Stafford Agree To Part Ways

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15 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

I don't disagree with your take... in fact I think you are (mostly) right.  What I disagree with is that the Rams thought Stafford is 2xFirst + a Third better than Goff.

I think the Rams probably think that Stafford is maybe a 1st and a 3rd better than Goff and giving up a 1st to move Goff's contact is worth it.

Alright we cool then I guess...I never said the Rams thought that though...just that I did.  I was big on Stafford, you can find my praises of him all over the threads.  Saying he was top 3 in the league at one point.  Saying that, I take what we got for him ALL day.  I did not even need that 2nd first rounder, but instead of 2 firsts and a thiiird I would have needed a second with the first.  Considering the first would have been next year.

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Considering the amount of teams that are supposedly in the QB market and the fact Goff is 26 I find it hard to believe that the Rams would have to part with a first to get out of his contract. 

 Its not that bad by QB standards, any half way decent QB is going to cost you a pretty penny anyway.  

For example he's owed 43m guaranteed and his cap hit is 25 million.  Guys like Bridgewater, Garrapolo and Carr have a 22m cap hit.   Taysom Hill is at 16. Basically an extra 3-5 million cap hit over any other similar QB you're going to get, not a huge deal. 

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4 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Considering the amount of teams that are supposedly in the QB market and the fact Goff is 26 I find it hard to believe that the Rams would have to part with a first to get out of his contract. 

 Its not that bad by QB standards, any half way decent QB is going to cost you a pretty penny anyway.  

I just find it hard to believe there wouldn't be any takers. Taysom Hill gets $16 million to be a backup. Goff is only a two year commitment and you can still get out of it after one year. The Colts who have a good roster should be willing to get a 2nd or 3rd rounder. They paid Philip Rivers like $20 million. 

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1 hour ago, sagnam said:

Suh doesn't play for LA though.

You got me. He was with them for a year and is now with the Bucs.

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48 minutes ago, RedRamage said:

I don't disagree with your take... in fact I think you are (mostly) right.  What I disagree with is that the Rams thought Stafford is 2xFirst + a Third better than Goff.

I think the Rams probably think that Stafford is maybe a 1st and a 3rd better than Goff and giving up a 1st to move Goff's contact is worth it.

this is what makes it interesting. Goff is just who he is. But by the measurables,  arm strength, release time, etc., Stafford is the much better QB. The question is whether the difference between the two as football players is less (or maybe more) than the difference in physical talent. We don't need to litigate all the critiques of Stafford over the years but let's just stipulate that criticism of the non-physical side of Stafford's game would not be news to anyone. Going to play for McVay in LA should resolve how much, if any of that criticism of Stafford was ever was valid. If it wasn't the trade will look pretty good to LA in the end. If he doesn't break out to a better record against upper tier competition, McVay is probably looking for a new job.

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in qbr last year Goff was 24th.  below such luminaries as mitch trubisky and daniel jones.  

in 2019 he was 26th.  below jameis winston and jacoby brissett.

goff wasnt very good for the last two years.  he was in the bottom third of all starting nfl qbs.  and his contract pays him like he's in the top tier.  

the lions arent contending and can take a chance on him recovering his "i have a healthy todd gurley in the backfield" form again.  its not a bad gamble for the lions and they got an extra first round pick to boot.  im not unhappy he's here and i look forward to seeing if he can be good again.

but betting that another team is going to take on that contract and give us assets for him?  i find that unlikely.  maybe NEXT year if he plays well this year the lions can deal him if they want, but i dont think he's going to garner a ton of interest.  remember, the rams threw in another first round pick to get rid of him.

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I don't think the Lions ever had any intention of flipping Goff. He is the bridge guy for at least a year, and maybe two. 

And if he's as good as Holmes remembers him, then he'll be the Lions QB for several seasons after that.

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I'm not sure the Rams did throw in the extra 1st rounder just to take Goff. 1st and foremost, the Rams needed to move Goff to be able to afford Stafford. I'm guessing the teams that would be interested in Goff would be interested in Stafford. Goff is probably a plan B. Three team trades never happen in the NFL so the Lions needed to take on Goff's salary. The Lions also had the 8th pick on the table from Carolina. The only way the Rams can beat that is by offering a 2nd first round pick. 

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34 minutes ago, Buddha said:

in qbr last year Goff was 24th.  below such luminaries as mitch trubisky and daniel jones.  

in 2019 he was 26th.  below jameis winston and jacoby brissett.

goff wasnt very good for the last two years.  he was in the bottom third of all starting nfl qbs.  and his contract pays him like he's in the top tier.  

the lions arent contending and can take a chance on him recovering his "i have a healthy todd gurley in the backfield" form again.  its not a bad gamble for the lions and they got an extra first round pick to boot.  im not unhappy he's here and i look forward to seeing if he can be good again.

but betting that another team is going to take on that contract and give us assets for him?  i find that unlikely.  maybe NEXT year if he plays well this year the lions can deal him if they want, but i dont think he's going to garner a ton of interest.  remember, the rams threw in another first round pick to get rid of him.

I like QBR but it is heavily dependent on td/int ratio which is an extremely volatile/misleading stat particularly the TD number.   If you're a team that throws more around the goal line you're going to have more TDs which boosts that number.   Or if a receiver gets tackled at the 1 instead of scoring, suddenly that costs you a TD even though it has no bearing on your actual skill.   I'm sure these things all even out over the course of a career but in 1 season they can definitely have an effect, by evidence of many guys TD numbers fluctuating pretty drastically year to year.  

His YPA was right in line with guys in the 10-15, they were negligible differences which is something that I like to pay attention to.  That shows just how productive you are and the efficiency in which you gain yards.

There's no doubt he is overpaid but its not a huge problem except for the owner. Its not enough to actually effect your ability to put a good team out there.   The cap hit is an extra 5 ish million and base salary is about 7 or 8 over a similar QB. 

When you got teams with 50-100 million in cap space that's not a big problem.  The savings would likely be spent on a low to mid tier FA that would be overpaid like a Justin Coleman.  

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3 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Some of the top players in the draft sat out a year,  teams would go weeks without playing,  teams had to shuffle their schedules,  teams played against teams that were missing a ton of players etc. Those are some big variables that effect how you can accurately judge a player.   

Those things all could've played a major role in a players performance this year and I think it would be perfectly reasonable to prefer waiting a year before potentially making a 1st round pick you could regret cause the player you drafted wasn't as good due to those reasons above.   

That's... very reasonable.  I hadn't considered it from that direction... not the Holmes wouldn't be ready to evaluate players for the Lions, but rather that 2020 was just such an unusual year that scouting/evaluations will be generally off for all concerned and the 2021 college season will hopefully be more stabilized and normal.

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4 hours ago, Jason_R said:

I don't think the Lions ever had any intention of flipping Goff. He is the bridge guy for at least a year, and maybe two. 

And if he's as good as Holmes remembers him, then he'll be the Lions QB for several seasons after that.

I'm thinking the Lions actually want him for the next 4 years of his contract... They think they can rehabilitate him... So... I definitely agree with you here...

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1 hour ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

I'm thinking the Lions actually want him for the next 4 years of his contract... They think they can rehabilitate him... So... I definitely agree with you here...

Just came across this...

Quote

One other thing that I think is important to mention on the Stafford deal is that the Lions really did want to walk away with a quarterback. My understanding is Lions coach Dan Campbell wanted, at the very least, a guy he could see as a starter for the next couple years. So yeah, moving Goff’s contract was a big part of the deal for the Rams—but it also gives the Lions something that their new head coach very clearly wanted, and might well have asked for as part of any of these potential deals.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/02/01/monday-afternoon-quarterback-super-bowl-carlton-davis-steve-spagnuolo

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broncos supposedly offered the lions #9, their third round pick, and drew locke for stafford and an undisclosed pick from detroit.  ive seen a couple reports from denver people saying they thought they had it done.

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1 hour ago, Buddha said:

broncos supposedly offered the lions #9, their third round pick, and drew locke for stafford and an undisclosed pick from detroit.  ive seen a couple reports from denver people saying they thought they had it done.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2021/02/01/weighing-reported-offers-detroit-lions-received-matthew-stafford/4336009001/

No mention here, but I heard that the Lions were talking about the Bronco's young players, but the Broncos backed off.

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Taking on Drew Lock should have cost the Broncos next year's first.  Lock is a terrible QB.

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8 hours ago, cruzer1 said:

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2021/02/01/weighing-reported-offers-detroit-lions-received-matthew-stafford/4336009001/

No mention here, but I heard that the Lions were talking about the Bronco's young players, but the Broncos backed off.

heard it from cecil lammey who does broncos radio, and it was on walter football last night.

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Been seeing that Stafford really only wanted to play for the Rams. Seems like Holmes did well if he was pigeonholed into dealing with one team. Stafford got what he wanted, the Lions got what they want, it was a good trade and all parties are happy. It's debatable whether an 8 from Carolina is worth two firsts from the Rams. I think the Lions like Goff and that shouldn't be underrated. Goff is probably worth a mid round pick at least to them. 

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I would presume if we had traded with Carolina that we'd be getting Bridgewater back in return and he'd be the Jared Goff of that scenario.

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3 minutes ago, Mr.TaterSalad said:

I would presume if we had traded with Carolina that we'd be getting Bridgewater back in return and he'd be the Jared Goff of that scenario.

I believe they liked Goff better than Bridgewater. Goff has upside. There is no upside to Bridgewater and Bridgewater's contract isn't exactly cheap either.

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what all these differing reports tells me is that nobody knows nothin' and most of them are probably false.

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These reports tell me that Stafford is a very good franchise QB who isn't going to be easily replaced by some D1 QB with one year of experience. 

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30 minutes ago, Motown Bombers said:

Could see more QB movement. 

 

I've seen a couple people throw out Carr and 2 1sts, they're just throwing out hypotheticals but if that were to happen that would make our return look that much better.

I know Carr is better than Goff but I don't think there is a massive difference there, plus we got a 3rd to help off set any difference between the two.  We would essentially have gotten the same deal for Stafford as Houston got for arguably the best young QB in the league. 

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I have not seen Holmes make the media rounds to talk about the Stafford trade. You might expect a new GM to take a victory lap, so to speak, after making a massive trade like this... in his first month. 

OTOH, I guess they may not want to signal that they will or won’t still take a QB in the draft. 

Either way, as a fan I am hoping that we don’t have another GM like Quinn who would hide in the shadows and only talk to the press once a year. 

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15 minutes ago, Jason_R said:

I have not seen Holmes make the media rounds to talk about the Stafford trade. You might expect a new GM to take a victory lap, so to speak, after making a massive trade like this... in his first month. 

OTOH, I guess they may not want to signal that they will or won’t still take a QB in the draft. 

Either way, as a fan I am hoping that we don’t have another GM like Quinn who would hide in the shadows and only talk to the press once a year. 

I don't think Holmes can comment on the trade yet since it isn't technically official. 

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