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RatkoVarda

2020-21 Off season

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15 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

That's not what I saw.  The charts indicate that attendance increases gradually as teams win more games.  Going from 60 to 70 games doesn't cause a dramatic increase in attendance, but it doesn't stay the same either. 

The charts is miseleading with the way its spaced out. When you have a chart that starts at 1.5 million and goes to 2.5 a slight change shows up much more dramatic than over a chart that runs form 0 to 3 million. The actual numbers are about 150K, which in the scheme of 2 million is nothing. Could just be better weather. 

Look at the numbers I provided for Houston, for example. Same for Tampa, Same for the Mets, same for the Padres. Flucuations of 100K give or take a year when they are bad.

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16 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

The charts is miseleading with the way its spaced out. When you have a chart that starts at 1.5 million and goes to 2.5 a slight change shows up much more dramatic than over a chart that runs form 0 to 3 million. The actual numbers are about 150K, which in the scheme of 2 million is nothing. Could just be better weather. 

Look at the numbers I provided for Houston, for example. Same for Tampa, Same for the Mets, same for the Padres. Flucuations of 100K give or take a year when they are bad.

The chart I posted is attendance per game, not total attendance.  

What you are saying suggests that the wins versus attendance line should be a curve where it's flat for anything under 75 games are so and then dramatically increases after that.  I don't see that.  

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1 hour ago, socaltiger said:

I love championships and my office is decorated with 1968 and 1984 memorabilia. But I would rather have a "seat at the table" year in and year out without sitting at the "head of the table' than eating in the kitchen for 9 years to be King for one. I hate these Looooong off seasons without hope of a trade or signing to put us closer to the top and summers when the season ends in April and May really suck. To me the greater the percentage of each season being relevant the more joy it brings me. Anticipating that nights game in August brings anticipation throughout the day. I Love Baseball and I Love it more when the Tigers are in the hunt all season or at least most of it.

Well stated and I totally agree with the point you are making.

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2 hours ago, Buddha said:

Those are all good points.  i do think that 34 is old for a catcher.  32 is old for a catcher...

 

Fair enough.

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1 hour ago, socaltiger said:

I love championships and my office is decorated with 1968 and 1984 memorabilia. But I would rather have a "seat at the table" year in and year out without sitting at the "head of the table' than eating in the kitchen for 9 years to be King for one. I hate these Looooong off seasons without hope of a trade or signing to put us closer to the top and summers when the season ends in April and May really suck. To me the greater the percentage of each season being relevant the more joy it brings me. Anticipating that nights game in August brings anticipation throughout the day. I Love Baseball and I Love it more when the Tigers are in the hunt all season or at least most of it.

Hopefully this all ends in a more sustained run of better development, better free agent/trade/draft acquisition, running teams out there that year in and year out have a reasonable shot at competing for the playoffs.  Its time to see some of the prospects bubbling and its time to start adding a player or two when it makes sense.

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2 hours ago, socaltiger said:

I will say it for the 100th time they had a great opportunity to be bold this off season and chose not to and that is really disappointing. Little creativity from the from office/owner. Realmuto and DJ Lemahiu sat on the shelf a long time is one example.Hiring Hinch was a great move and Badoo might be a steal so credit where credit is due and Hinch seems to be creative in his approach so I am hoping it rubs off for next off season.

I don't see any logic where it would make sense for the tigers, this year, to add high priced, older, descending players. That would not be bold, it would be irrational. When they spend big, it needs to be for players that fit in with their new core.

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Given their current position, I would not want the Tigers to add older players to expensive long term contracts.  My argument is that a 70-win team is generally more entertaining than a 60 win team.  So, if you can get there without messing up your future, it's worthwhile.  Also, in the event that a relatively young star player enters free agency or is available in a salary dump, I would always be happy if my team went after such a player regardless of where they are in the re-build.  I don't have any player in mind.   

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Are people excited about Candelario and Castro? I know they are small samples but they hit last year and continued to hit in spring training. I'm looking forward to what they can do this season and potentially years to come. Of course prospects are exciting but these two have had some success already.

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

Given their current position, I would not want the Tigers to add older players to expensive long term contracts.  My argument is that a 70-win team is generally more entertaining than a 60 win team.  So, if you can get there without messing up your future, it's worthwhile.  Also, in the event that a relatively young star player enters free agency or is available in a salary dump, I would always be happy if my team went after such a player regardless of where they are in the re-build.  I don't have any player in mind.   

To me now is as good a time as any to start adding SOME FA vets. Unless you think that the current crop of prospects is STILL 3+ years out from making it to the big leagues.

I always look back at our last successful rebuild. We didn't go out and add Pudge, Magglio, Polanco, Guillen, and Rogers all in one offseason. We brought in that talent over the preceding 2-3 years to have some worthwhile vets ready when the better prospects in our system were ready to come up.

I don't think it makes great sense to sign zero worthwhile FAs until your young players are up and established. You're not going to bring in a bunch of contributors in one offseason. IF you wait to add vets until after your supposed "young core" is ready, by the time you add enough vets to round out your team that young core has likely gotten expensive.

 

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19 minutes ago, hammb said:

To me now is as good a time as any to start adding SOME FA vets. Unless you think that the current crop of prospects is STILL 3+ years out from making it to the big leagues.

I always look back at our last successful rebuild. We didn't go out and add Pudge, Magglio, Polanco, Guillen, and Rogers all in one offseason. We brought in that talent over the preceding 2-3 years to have some worthwhile vets ready when the better prospects in our system were ready to come up.

I don't think it makes great sense to sign zero worthwhile FAs until your young players are up and established. You're not going to bring in a bunch of contributors in one offseason. IF you wait to add vets until after your supposed "young core" is ready, by the time you add enough vets to round out your team that young core has likely gotten expensive.

 

That is a good point about their last re-build.  They did get lucky in that everything worked perfectly.  Pudge and Ordonez were pretty substantial health risks, Polanco and Guillen were genius acquisitions and Verlander and Zumaya contributed I think earlier than expected. You can't win if you don't take some chances though.  

I would probably avoid signing old injured players to five year deals this time.  Hopefully, with a batch of great prospects on the horizon and a respected manager, they might be a better destination for one of the top free agents.  

 

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7 hours ago, Casimir said:

MILB.TV is only $50 for the season?

That is what it was in 2019. They haven't released prices yet for this season.

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The Tigers should spend a lot more in the international market. That's really where I'd like to see a major change. We finally started to sign some premium talent with higher bonuses the past 2 cycles and we are supposed to sign two of BA's top 20 international prospects next cycle and that is a positive development. However, we still rent our facility in the DR and that is very rare nowadays. You even have teams like Miami and Cleveland putting $10 million into their facilities and putting lots of resources their yearly. We do not do that. We've basically ignored player acquisition and player development that accounts for almost 30% of big league players. I'm guessing that is more on Illitch than Avila though.

We finally made some player development hires after 2019 in Kenny Graham (hitting) and Dan Hubbs (pitching) and have invested in the latest technology, but those departments still need to be built out more too. We are consistently playing catchup in all areas of how the top MLB organizations operate. If the Rays can be innovative and on the cutting edge, then there is no reason that the Tigers cannot be.

If Greene, Torkelson, Mize, Manning, Skubal, our #3 pick this year and probabe top 5 pick next year all pan out, then I think we'll be a 95 win team in due time as we would then just have to round out the rest of the club with league average players and those are not hard to find in FA. That kind of seems like what Illitch's plan is or hope is. It is the cheapest/easiest way to build out a contender, although it is certainly not a guarantee. Only the Skubal pick would have taken any skill from the FO.

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16 hours ago, tiger337 said:

That is a good point about their last re-build.  They did get lucky in that everything worked perfectly.  Pudge and Ordonez were pretty substantial health risks, Polanco and Guillen were genius acquisitions and Verlander and Zumaya contributed I think earlier than expected. You can't win if you don't take some chances though.  

I would probably avoid signing old injured players to five year deals this time.  Hopefully, with a batch of great prospects on the horizon and a respected manager, they might be a better destination for one of the top free agents.  

 

No doubt there was a lot of luck involved with Pudge & Maggs both working out with their injury history. And the landscape has changed so much for the big time FAs as well in the last 15 years I'm not even sure if what I want is still feasible.

I'm not asking for superstars. I just think we need to start signing SOMEBODY in FA that you think can actually contribute to a competitive (if not contending) team. Personally, I would NEVER sign a Lindor type deal unless it's to retain a HoF homegrown player. I had no issues with JV and Miggy's contracts because I wanted to see those guys around forever, even if it did hamper our ability to win down the line. I would never go out into FA looking at those top tier FAs wanting 8+ year deals.

But I do think at some point we have to go out and add legit talent. Ozuna, for instance, was signed this year to a sub $20m salary and not commited past his age 35 season. Maybe we have to tack on a "we suck" premium to his salary or add a year, but at some point we simply must add some legit talent.

Ever since we traded away JV (which was completely asinine) this team has been tanking like **** in the hopes they can win like the Indians/Astros with nothing but cheap talent. That's absurd, and I don't think our FO is a fraction as good as those front offices are/were.

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Sorry I havent responded, Ive been slammed with stuff the last couple of days.  Looks like a great conversation, and I look forward to reading/digesting and responding.  Thanks

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On 3/31/2021 at 6:13 PM, Scottwood said:

The Tigers should spend a lot more in the international market. That's really where I'd like to see a major change. We finally started to sign some premium talent with higher bonuses the past 2 cycles and we are supposed to sign two of BA's top 20 international prospects next cycle and that is a positive development. However, we still rent our facility in the DR and that is very rare nowadays. You even have teams like Miami and Cleveland putting $10 million into their facilities and putting lots of resources their yearly. We do not do that. We've basically ignored player acquisition and player development that accounts for almost 30% of big league players. I'm guessing that is more on Illitch than Avila though.

 

Do a study if you get the time on international outlays versus eventual big league value. I'm not sure it is as strongly correlated as you and many others think.

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23 hours ago, Edman85 said:

 

Do a study if you get the time on international outlays versus eventual big league value. I'm not sure it is as strongly correlated as you and many others think.

The new capped bonus system mostly evens out what teams can give to players, so going forward I wouldn't expect much difference there among team outlays. In terms of resources allocated with facilities and staff and tech, etc. that is all mostly kept private so I'm not sure how a study could be done adequately on that without inside knowledge on club finances. It has been reported that the Rays and Yankees both devote lots of resources to the international market and they have done well there, but I'm sure there are others that devote a lot of resources and come up empty.  The Astros were famously extremely analytical under their old leadership and mostly stayed away from allocating resources to the IL market, so I think that could be the best counter argument to what I wrote. They probably did that study already themselves.

I think an interesting thing to study would be the strategy behind how to allocate a team's bonus money. Should a team spend $3 million+ on one player and use up over half their bonus money or is it better to give a number of players a couple hundred thousand dollars and use more of a lottery system? Also, is there a cutoff where giving player $3 million+ isn't warranted? Wander Franco was the clear cut #1 guy in his cohort in the DR, for example, but then there were other players getting close to his bonus money that weren't anywhere near as highly regarded.

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5 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

 

 

Everyone says he is kinda douchey....karma?  I have no idea if he is or is not (douchey that is)

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1 hour ago, John_Brian_K said:

Everyone says he is kinda douchey....karma?  I have no idea if he is or is not (douchey that is)

He seems to be a little cocky and people think he's not good enough to be cocky.  I don't care.  Most pro athletes are cocky.  

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

 

 

unlucky.

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