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2020-21 Off season

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55 minutes ago, Longgone said:

Projecting the pitching is a little more difficult:

Starters: Boyd, Turnbull, Teheran, Urenas, Skubal

Pen: Soto, Farmer, Garcia, Cisnero, Alexander, Norris, Holland, Fulmer 

we're going to be so so so bad.

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2 minutes ago, Buddha said:

we're going to be so so so bad.

for a long long time.  

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1 minute ago, tiger337 said:

for a long long time.  

i was all on team rebuild 4 years ago, but i was hoping they would get wise and hire a management team that knew what they were doing to do that rebuild.

i am interested to see what hinch and company can do, but there's only so much an mlb manager can do without any talent.

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we've rehashed this again and again, but getting nothing for jd martinez and justin verlander absolutely killed this franchise.

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2 hours ago, Buddha said:

we've rehashed this again and again, but getting nothing for jd martinez and justin verlander absolutely killed this franchise.

It was a crucial misstep in a long string of missteps by AA that will haunt this franchise.

I still cannot fathom why anybody would ever have have had any confidence in this FO and ownership. 

I know I'm a broken f'ing record about this, but to have watched so much bad baseball for so long, then to hear people like KL smugly and wrongheadedly assure me that somehow this is all because of money spent and prospects traded by DD, and how I should embrace the tank and put Chris's profits above some silly fan boy desire to win....

....it is all so gloriously vapid and devoid of any proper interest in success, it just makes me want to throw up. 

Eff the idiots who own and run this team, and a hearty #$%%# to the puddingheads who have defended this mess.

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2 hours ago, Buddha said:

i was all on team rebuild 4 years ago, but i was hoping they would get wise and hire a management team that knew what they were doing to do that rebuild.

i am interested to see what hinch and company can do, but there's only so much an mlb manager can do without any talent.

I value managers way more than most, but if they cant fix Mize, and if Manning doesnt contribute positive value this year or next, Hinch is going to feel like Pop Fisher without Roy Hobbs...I dont care how good Tork and Greene are, they are not going to be ready to help this team for several years, and they cant single handedly turn this around into a winning team.

For goodness sake, there are at least a half dozen teams that have rebuilt/retooled to success since our last playoff game in 2014 (the only one I've ever attended FWIW).  These are not heroic deeds...it takes competence, which we sorely lack, and Chris I either doesnt realize or doesnt care that we lack it.

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4 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

It was a crucial misstep in a long string of missteps by AA that will haunt this franchise.

I still cannot fathom why anybody would ever have have had any confidence in this FO and ownership. 

I know I'm a broken f'ing record about this, but to have watched so much bad baseball for so long, then to hear people like KL smugly and wrongheadedly assure me that somehow this is all because of money spent and prospects traded by DD, and how I should embrace the tank and put Chris's profits above some silly fan boy desire to win....

....it is all so gloriously vapid and devoid of any proper interest in success, it just makes me want to throw up. 

Eff the idiots who own and run this team, and a hearty #$%%# to the puddingheads who have defended this mess.

Well....it's not because DD traded away a bunch of great prospects, it's because the Tigers failed to draft and develop their prospects for decades.

When DD was forced to trade FOR prospects, he got some decent ones in return.  A better return than Avila's prospects have been so far.  But even when DD was drafting in the top 10 he didn't pull good talent (or didnt develop it).  He was just a wizard at trading it for major league talent (until the last couple years when he lost that magic touch).

Avila has been bad at drafting AND trading...not a great combination.

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Just now, Buddha said:

Well....it's not because DD traded away a bunch of great prospects, it's because the Tigers failed to draft and develop their prospects for decades.

When DD was forced to trade FOR prospects, he got some decent ones in return.  A better return than Avila's prospects have been so far.  But even when DD was drafting in the top 10 he didn't pull good talent (or didnt develop it).  He was just a wizard at trading it for major league talent (until the last couple years when he lost that magic touch).

Avila has been bad at drafting AND trading...not a great combination.

Exactly.  DD and AA were able in previous stops to lay the groundwork...not so here.  And AA has no secondary skill set to make up for it.

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1 minute ago, sabretooth said:

I value managers way more than most, but if they cant fix Mize, and if Manning doesnt contribute positive value this year or next, Hinch is going to feel like Pop Fisher without Roy Hobbs...I dont care how good Tork and Greene are, they are not going to be ready to help this team for several years, and they cant single handedly turn this around into a winning team.

For goodness sake, there are at least a half dozen teams that have rebuilt/retooled to success since our last playoff game in 2014 (the only one I've ever attended FWIW).  These are not heroic deeds...it takes competence, which we sorely lack, and Chris I either doesnt realize or doesnt care that we lack it.

The White Sox and Cubs were able to trade their good players for good pieces and drafted well.  The Astros developed their young talent well.

The Tigers have done neither so far.

We'll see if they can become the White Sox instead of the Pirates in the next couple years.  My money is on something closer to the Allegheny than the South Side of Chicago.

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3 minutes ago, Buddha said:

My money is on something closer to the Allegheny

....or just agony....oh well, 1st World Problems I guess

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I think the major miscues were not trading Fulmer or Boyd when they had the chance particularly Fulmer.   In mid 2017 we waved the white flag and conceded that it was going to be a several year rebuild after doing that there was no need to keep Fulmer.  By the time we we would hopefully be good again he would near an extension and that would be a best case scenario of him not blowing up by then(which of course he did).    

Another under the radar possible miscue was not trading Jimenez that first year he made the All Star team.   Like Fulmer, there was no reason to keep a young reliever like that even if you thought he was going to be good if you weren't planning to compete for several years.  I think a young potential shut down closer in Jimenez would have been really attractive to contenders and we could've gotten a quality prospect(s) for. 

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i think avila really thought he got value for verlander, but so far it looks like he was wrong.

the martinez trade is inexcusable.  a bag of **** for one of the best hitters in baseball.

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1 minute ago, Buddha said:

i think avila really thought he got value for verlander, but so far it looks like he was wrong.

the martinez trade is inexcusable.  a bag of **** for one of the best hitters in baseball.

To be fair almost everybody in baseball(atleast the national pundits) thought they did alright for Verlander at the time.   JV was viewed as an almost untradeable contract hence the reason he passed through waivers to begin with, teams just didn't value him that greatly based off of that.   A week before the trade Fangraphs speculated that the Tigers would need to eat half the contract to even get one serviceable prospect, He was able to get 3 potential top 100 prospects while eating far less than half of it.    It just turns out that those prospects tanked and JV became better than ever at the age of 35.  Not something that should have been expected.  

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2 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

To be fair almost everybody in baseball(atleast the national pundits) thought they did alright for Verlander at the time.   JV was viewed as an almost untradeable contract hence the reason he passed through waivers to begin with, teams just didn't value him that greatly based off of that.   A week before the trade Fangraphs speculated that the Tigers would need to eat half the contract to even get one serviceable prospect, He was able to get 3 potential top 100 prospects while eating far less than half of it.    It just turns out that those prospects tanked and JV became better than ever at the age of 35.  Not something that should have been expected.  

they had one top 100 prospect in perez (the usual "is young and throws hard prospect", of which there seem to be 10-12 in the top 50 every year) and two other high draft picks.

but its avila's job to find talent and develop it and he didnt do it in that trade.  i dont think "everyone seemed to think it was ok" at the time excuses the result.  his job is to get talent into the system and develop it.  it doesnt look like that trade brought talent or it hasnt been developed.

everyone though randy smith did a great job bringing in matt drews, juan encarnacion, brian hunter, kenny baugh, kyle sleeth, and gabe kapler too.

and - just to continue to beat this dead horse - verlander had found his form again by the time of that trade.  he was pitching well at the time, very well.

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its funny that avila looks to have brought in more talent for alex avila and nick castellanos as he did for justin verlander and jd martinez.

everyone should take turns taking advantage of theo and the cubs.

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8 hours ago, Buddha said:

they had one top 100 prospect in perez (the usual "is young and throws hard prospect", of which there seem to be 10-12 in the top 50 every year) and two other high draft picks.

Perez sat at 92-94 and touched 96. Are we calling that throws hard? Because if we are can we stop with the Mize fastball velocitiy stuff?

"Though he's just a teenager, Perez already demonstrates feel for four offerings. His most consistent pitch right now is his lively fastball, which sits at 92-94 mph, peaks at 96 and could add more velocity once he physically matures. His downer curveball projects as a future plus pitch, his fading changeup shows similar upside and his slider is developing nicely ... He has the upside of a No. 3 starter and is on pace to reach Houston before he turns 22."

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/tigers-reportedly-trade-justin-verlander-to-astros-and-fully-commit-to-rebuild/

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8 hours ago, Buddha said:

The White Sox and Cubs were able to trade their good players for good pieces and drafted well.  The Astros developed their young talent well.

The Tigers have done neither so far.

We'll see if they can become the White Sox instead of the Pirates in the next couple years.  My money is on something closer to the Allegheny than the South Side of Chicago.

What's so great about the White sox. They've lost 80 or so games every year since 2008. They finished second in a 60 game season? For years we heard about how they were gonna contend with all their young talent only to fizzle out. Last year was maybe the first time they've put it togther. Maybe. Let's wait a bit longer before we get all excited about the White Sox. 

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Keith Law posted a question on his chat the other day where someone asked that in this day and age that aside for short periods of time, how can one team maintain an edge in areas, like for example increasing velocity, on so many other teams? Why wouldn't teams that aren't able to do that hire some of those instructors?

Law's response was basically some teams don't want to spend in those areas and if they do stumble across someone who does give them an edge they can't keep them. These are mostly the same teams that are using the pandemic as an excuse to trim staffing levels even further.

I don't have proof, aside from their horrible track record, but the Tigers must be one of the teams that haven't been spending on their development staff. Their approach was to spend big in the draft if they deem a player worthy, up until slotting, and then draft older prospects who are further along. Let the colleges develop the players for you and spend on the major league team. They also weren't spending in internationally.

The Tigers and AA have made a big deal about how they are modernizing the player development program, let's hope they are also spending on instructors as well.

 

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12 minutes ago, Keepleyland2 said:

Perez sat at 92-94 and touched 96. Are we calling that throws hard? Because if we are can we stop with the Mize fastball velocitiy stuff?

"Though he's just a teenager, Perez already demonstrates feel for four offerings. His most consistent pitch right now is his lively fastball, which sits at 92-94 mph, peaks at 96 and could add more velocity once he physically matures. His downer curveball projects as a future plus pitch, his fading changeup shows similar upside and his slider is developing nicely ... He has the upside of a No. 3 starter and is on pace to reach Houston before he turns 22."

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/tigers-reportedly-trade-justin-verlander-to-astros-and-fully-commit-to-rebuild/

as depressing as Perez's velo was, I would note he did put down three hitters without a hit in his inning. Hinch mentioned he might be psychologically unready to cut loose after all the injuries. We'll see what happens once he gets a little more comfortable.

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11 hours ago, Buddha said:

we're going to be so so so bad.

Going to be?

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19 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

I think the major miscues were not trading Fulmer or Boyd when they had the chance particularly Fulmer.   In mid 2017 we waved the white flag and conceded that it was going to be a several year rebuild after doing that there was no need to keep Fulmer.  By the time we we would hopefully be good again he would near an extension and that would be a best case scenario of him not blowing up by then(which of course he did).    

Another under the radar possible miscue was not trading Jimenez that first year he made the All Star team.   Like Fulmer, there was no reason to keep a young reliever like that even if you thought he was going to be good if you weren't planning to compete for several years.  I think a young potential shut down closer in Jimenez would have been really attractive to contenders and we could've gotten a quality prospect(s) for. 

The premise of maximizing value at any time is a good one.  The premise that a rebuild means that you trade away guys who aren't even 25 yet isn't a good one.  If you could somehow flip a good young pitcher for a good young positional player, I would generally be for that. 

I completely reject the idea that a rebuild in this case (or any case) has to be so long that it outlasts the value of keeping good young players (especially those <25) on hand.  A good GM with a supportive owner, starting in mid-2017, could have had the team on a definite upswing towards winning/competition at this point....at least to the point where we could expect a 500 team with some exciting young (non-tank) prospects providing some punch, with other (non-tank) prospects on the way.

A good GM could have either garnered more value for the firesale OR, if the trade value wasn't there, garnering the support of a committed owner, may have sidestepped bad trades of several HoF level producers for crap.  A good GM would have focused on maximizing value from the farm system without leaning entirely on the top 5 picks of the 1st round.  Having the farm system produce little to no ML production for the last 4 years, and therefore leaning entirely on a couple of tank picks to revive the team, is complete incompetence. 

I think Avila TRIED to get real value from the firesale trades and from his non-tank draftees/development, but unfortunately his development system so far has been a flop.

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5 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

The premise of maximizing value at any time is a good one.  The premise that a rebuild means that you trade away guys who aren't even 25 yet isn't a good one.  If you could somehow flip a good young pitcher for a good young positional player, I would generally be for that. 

I completely reject the idea that a rebuild in this case (or any case) has to be so long that it outlasts the value of keeping good young players (especially those <25) on hand.  A good GM with a supportive owner, starting in mid-2017, could have had the team on a definite upswing towards winning/competition at this point....at least to the point where we could expect a 500 team with some exciting young (non-tank) prospects providing some punch, with other (non-tank) prospects on the way.

A good GM could have either garnered more value for the firesale OR, if the trade value wasn't there, garnering the support of a committed owner, may have sidestepped bad trades of several HoF level producers for crap.  A good GM focused on maximizing value from the farm system without leaning on the top 5 picks of the 1st round.  Having the farm system produce little to no ML production for the last 4 years, and therefore leaning entirely on a couple of tank picks to revive the team is complete incompetence. 

I think Avila TRIED to get real value from the firesale trades and from his non-tank draftees/development, but unfortunately his development system so far has been a flop.

Not every rebuild is the same and the Tigers situation in 2017 was about as bad as it could possibly get. They had an aging overpaid roster unable to win, a bunch of bad contracts going out several years, and one of the worst farm systems in baseball. It was clear that this was not going to be a 3 year rebuild and then back to winning without extraordinary luck. I'm not defending Chris for his spending or lack thereof, but he was paying Miggy, Zimmerman, dead money to Verlander and even Fielder for the last couple of years.

They were going to lose 100 games with or without Fulmer for a couple years so it made perfect sense to trade him for a package that would pay off a couple of years later.

Now that it has been 3.5 years it's time for results. Most of the bad contracts are gone, they have 3 top 5 draft picks, and a bunch of trade bounty. I wouldn't trade a top 23 year old pitcher today. Heads need to roll if they don't start showing improvement.

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

as depressing as Perez's velo was, I would note he did put down three hitters without a hit in his inning. Hinch mentioned he might be psychologically unready to cut loose after all the injuries. We'll see what happens once he gets a little more comfortable.

He was low 90's last summer, so something else is going on, but you can't put too much into one spring outing.

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2 hours ago, Keepleyland2 said:

Perez sat at 92-94 and touched 96. Are we calling that throws hard? Because if we are can we stop with the Mize fastball velocitiy stuff?

"Though he's just a teenager, Perez already demonstrates feel for four offerings. His most consistent pitch right now is his lively fastball, which sits at 92-94 mph, peaks at 96 and could add more velocity once he physically matures. His downer curveball projects as a future plus pitch, his fading changeup shows similar upside and his slider is developing nicely ... He has the upside of a No. 3 starter and is on pace to reach Houston before he turns 22."

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/tigers-reportedly-trade-justin-verlander-to-astros-and-fully-commit-to-rebuild/

lol.  so he didnt even throw hard????  makes the trade even that much more head scratching.

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1 hour ago, Longgone said:

He was low 90's last summer, so something else is going on, but you can't put too much into one spring outing.

True dat.

which also applies to Mize. He may have just had a bad hair day yesterday.

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