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RatkoVarda

2020-21 Off season

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2 minutes ago, Buddha said:

dodgers.  i know they spend money, but they have developed their own players better than anyone for as long as i can remember.

rays are becoming a model organization at the other end of the spectrum.  never spending anything but trying new forms of management in an attempt to work the margins of a labor system heavily weighted in favor of smart ownership.

I don't disagree with you about the success of the Dodgers and Rays.  But I think as far as markets/economics are concerned, the Tigers are probably closer to the Cardinals than they are to either the Dodgers or Rays.

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Detailed video of Johnny Damon getting arrested.  It's long, but entertaining.  It's not violent.  He and his wife just sound like a couple of dumb asses.  

 

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51 minutes ago, Buddha said:

dodgers.  i know they spend money, but they have developed their own players better than anyone for as long as i can remember.

rays are becoming a model organization at the other end of the spectrum.  never spending anything but trying new forms of management in an attempt to work the margins of a labor system heavily weighted in favor of smart ownership.

Yes, the Rays have done a great job developing hitting, pitching, and defensive talent, and focusing on value acquisitions.

Good point about the Dodgers, they certainly have been consistent developers of talent and consistent winners.  They also spend a lot, and trade for and sign big names....obviously they have big revenues as well.

The Tigers should be able to fall in between these two...draft and develop, and maintain payroll at a workable level somewhere in the middle of the pack.  This basement dwelling needs to stop.

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1 hour ago, sabretooth said:

... This basement dwelling needs to stop.

If we're talking about high-level sustainability here... then I'm going to go on a bit of a rant:

Starting with my one (well, maybe second) complaint about Dombrowski. 

He came up through the White Sox/ Expos/ Marlins systems which were ALL about draft and develop. I expected that here. As well as Ilitch's money to keep the stars we developed instead of being forced to trade them away as the above 3 mentioned teams always had to do. He'd be able to take advantage of Ilitch's money... And since DD was an expert at spotting up-and-coming talent from other org's when he HAD to trade away his stars for prospects, I figured he would do the same here, if the Tigers felt they needed to move on from an aging player. And he DID do that. But he did NOT develop a Draft & Develop system like with the other 3 org's. Instead he went for quick rise college players so he could trade them away, and relied almost exclusively on Ilitch's money and trading prospects for vets...

That was my second greatest problem with him (aside from developing a reliable BP that could get us WS wins instead of also-rans that kept blowing us out of the playoffs...): that he didn't follow the Expos/ Marlins path.

I'm not certain if Avila will get us to a sustainable Draft & Develop system, but in my mind, that's the ONLY way to avoid long stays in the basement. 

I would say this about Avila:

1) He's been DD's right-hand man going a long ways back, all the way to the Marlins.

2) It looks like he's trying to fix our Draft & Develop process so that it works correctly, like Tampa or the Cardinals. Particularly, it looks like he's learned his lesson in International by switching from "a little bit of money spread all over" to "identify at least 1 or 2 annual big signs that the team likes... and then spread the money". Too early to know if they are picking the right guys, so we'll see... but at least the formula is better, IMO.

3) We'll see how far they get with trying to use updated technology. But it seems they're on the right path. Hopefully that's a huge plus on the development side...

4) I think it's too early to make calls on his trading acumen. It's too early on Franklyn Perez and Daz Cameron... we'll see what we get out of Candelario and Rogers and Willi Castro and others... but this is an area that so far looks like well miss DD's high-level expertise. AA needs to get better...

The bottom line to me is that if we want to have sustained success like Tampa or Cardinals and avoid the basement... we HAVE to get great at Draft & Develop and trading acumen... everything else (Chris Ilitch's money if & when he decides to show it) is just icing...

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A lot of good points, but if you are treating FA signings as strictly "icing on the cake", with the cake being all D&D, dont expect to ever celebrate a birthday again, because there likely aint ever going to be a cake like that, for the vast majority of the teams out there.

Building a winning team from D&D as a prereq. for spending is a losing proposition.  The bar is simply way too high.

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Seems like the successful teams long term, Cards/Dodgers, don't get that way for developing superstars.... it's the guys just over replacement level that are traditional holes in the lineup.  I never bought into the stars/scrubs thing attributed to the Tigers as a specific strategy but rather the result of inefficient development.  They didn't make the choice.  The Tigers weren't really risking all that much by allegedly signing top FA and losing draft picks because draft picks are so random anyway.  I feel like that argument was used to sugarcoat the lack of development as a strategic decision rather than incompetence.

I think it's pretty well known that the best teams consistently develop their overall talent.  They don't just buy free agents or luck into top draft picks due to tanking.

 

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1 hour ago, Oblong said:

Seems like the successful teams long term, Cards/Dodgers, don't get that way for developing superstars.... it's the guys just over replacement level that are traditional holes in the lineup.  I never bought into the stars/scrubs thing attributed to the Tigers as a specific strategy but rather the result of inefficient development.  They didn't make the choice.  The Tigers weren't really risking all that much by allegedly signing top FA and losing draft picks because draft picks are so random anyway.  I feel like that argument was used to sugarcoat the lack of development as a strategic decision rather than incompetence.

I think it's pretty well known that the best teams consistently develop their overall talent.  They don't just buy free agents or luck into top draft picks due to tanking.

 

IMHO, tend to agree here. Teams that have continued success HAVE to develop a certain amount of MLB players (that are above replacement). Not just a result of several high picks (which some have to develop) because of the constant losing and over FA spending.

Point being here the Tigs needs to develop several players of the many they now have. There will be ones that do not develop, some that surprise and some lost to injuries. Depth today seems more important than ever. SP innings are going less innings, more injuries during season time for all players.

Just thinking aloud, all IMHO, teams may need more multi-inning RPS, schedules back to 154 games with a few scheduled 7 inning double-headers, rosters to 27 players, xtra innings staying as they currently are (runner on 2B to start)... THIS season will be very interesting as it unfolds. Yes, some of this has to do with finances of course - but, those finances are mostly coming from fan bases that 'wish to see certain players' on the field performing at top level and with said if many are not healthy then the interest may wane...

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The Tigers have a terrible starting line-up and their entire rotation is question marks, but one thing they seem to have this year is more depth.  They will have a strong bench, plus reinforcements in Toledo.  This should allow them to survive injuries better this year.  Even some of the good Dombrowski teams lacked depth and would come up really short when injuries hit.  

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The Tigers need to show that they can develop some non-tanking draft picks and other minor-league acquisitions into plus players.  Willi Castro and Skubal would be a nice start.

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2 hours ago, Oblong said:

Seems like the successful teams long term, Cards/Dodgers, don't get that way for developing superstars.... it's the guys just over replacement level that are traditional holes in the lineup.  I never bought into the stars/scrubs thing attributed to the Tigers as a specific strategy but rather the result of inefficient development.  They didn't make the choice.  The Tigers weren't really risking all that much by allegedly signing top FA and losing draft picks because draft picks are so random anyway.  I feel like that argument was used to sugarcoat the lack of development as a strategic decision rather than incompetence.

I think it's pretty well known that the best teams consistently develop their overall talent.  They don't just buy free agents or luck into top draft picks due to tanking.

Yes....DD's teams aren't all-FA, and AAs teams aren't all-DD.  Both tried to do both....it's just that DD was also outstanding at trades, whereas AA seems to be mediocre-to-poor at nearly every phase of being a GM.

Chris' opposition to providing a budget is a killer-blow to being a playoff contender, but I highly doubt that if AA had been Mike I's GM that he would ever have come close to matching DD's success.

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1 hour ago, sabretooth said:

Yes....DD's teams aren't all-FA, and AAs teams aren't all-DD.  Both tried to do both....it's just that DD was also outstanding at trades, whereas AA seems to be mediocre-to-poor at nearly every phase of being a GM.

Chris' opposition to providing a budget is a killer-blow to being a playoff contender, but I highly doubt that if AA had been Mike I's GM that he would ever have come close to matching DD's success.

one need only look at what AA did in free agency when he WAS Mike's GM.  he was awful.

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They simply don't develop players like successful organizations. Part of that is drafting 21 and 22 year olds almost exclusively after the first round, instead of 18 year olds, and part of it must be a flawed player development program. Plus avoiding high dollar international players and bringing in a min van full of 5'9  140 lbs shortstops every year. This goes back decades really. The Tigers haven't had hardly any true development successes since the Campbell days. Granderson? Fryman? Higgy? Not very many and  none recently. They can't even develop a reliever despite a massive emphasis in the draft to find some.

Skubal was a highly thought of arm with an injury history who dropped and they went above slot for. They deserve credit of course but he wasn't really someone they developed. The rest of the recent successes in the DD era are high dollar draft picks or Andy Dirks/Matt Joyce types.

I see they are changing their approach to the international, which is nice. But they are still sticking to college players in rounds 2-5 in the last couple of drafts. 

This is an important year for the organization. The past couple of drafts and international classes need to start yielding results. If they don't see much progress and if the young pitchers don't develop, and they are of course highly unpredictable, we could be looking at 2-3 years more rebuilding. 

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1 hour ago, Stanley70 said:

They simply don't develop players like successful organizations

Really, that's it. They just don't.

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On 3/10/2021 at 9:04 AM, tiger337 said:

Detailed video of Johnny Damon getting arrested.  It's long, but entertaining.  It's not violent.  He and his wife just sound like a couple of dumb asses.  

 

I hate to say it but if they were Black this would have ended much worse. The cop just let his wife wander around and ignore commands....

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17 hours ago, sabretooth said:

A lot of good points, but if you are treating FA signings as strictly "icing on the cake", with the cake being all D&D, dont expect to ever celebrate a birthday again, because there likely aint ever going to be a cake like that, for the vast majority of the teams out there.

Building a winning team from D&D as a prereq. for spending is a losing proposition.  The bar is simply way too high.

There's nothing wrong with having LOTS of icing on the cake...

But if you don't even bake the cake, how the heck are ya' gonna celebrate a birthday?

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2 hours ago, Tigeraholic1 said:

I hate to say it but if they were Black this would have ended much worse. The cop just let his wife wander around and ignore commands....

 The cops were very nice to them.  

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6 hours ago, Buddha said:

one need only look at what AA did in free agency when he WAS Mike's GM.  he was awful.

yep

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6 hours ago, Stanley70 said:

They simply don't develop players like successful organizations. Part of that is drafting 21 and 22 year olds almost exclusively after the first round, instead of 18 year olds, and part of it must be a flawed player development program. Plus avoiding high dollar international players and bringing in a min van full of 5'9  140 lbs shortstops every year. This goes back decades really. The Tigers haven't had hardly any true development successes since the Campbell days. Granderson? Fryman? Higgy? Not very many and  none recently. They can't even develop a reliever despite a massive emphasis in the draft to find some.

Skubal was a highly thought of arm with an injury history who dropped and they went above slot for. They deserve credit of course but he wasn't really someone they developed. The rest of the recent successes in the DD era are high dollar draft picks or Andy Dirks/Matt Joyce types.

I see they are changing their approach to the international, which is nice. But they are still sticking to college players in rounds 2-5 in the last couple of drafts. 

This is an important year for the organization. The past couple of drafts and international classes need to start yielding results. If they don't see much progress and if the young pitchers don't develop, and they are of course highly unpredictable, we could be looking at 2-3 years more rebuilding. 

Good points about drafting college v. 18 yr olds.

Also it takes anywhere from 4 to 5 years for a guy to go from draft to star; so if this crop of prospects don't work out, they're going to have to spend some money to build a team if they expect to be a winning/playoff team again before the second half of this bleeding decade. 

If this crop fails, and if its Al freaking Avila rebuilding it *again*, Chris I would be awarded the William Clay Ford Sr. award for anticipated neverending failure.

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Of course it's all speculation on my part but I believe its getting to be put up or shut up time for Avila, particularly with the growth of the prospects.  I think Chris is more in touch with the Tigers system than we give him credit for, I'm basing that off the fact that last spring he reportedly asked for Riley Greene to play because he wanted to watch him in person.  That leads me to believe that he is atleast paying some attention to prospects and their growth.    

If the Tigers finish last this year but we see a major growth from our prospects in the minors and young players on the roster I think Avila will be fine but if there is no growth from any young players or they God forbid get worse I truly think Avila could be in some hot water.   

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3 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Of course it's all speculation on my part but I believe its getting to be put up or shut up time for Avila, particularly with the growth of the prospects.  I think Chris is more in touch with the Tigers system than we give him credit for, I'm basing that off the fact that last spring he reportedly asked for Riley Greene to play because he wanted to watch him in person.  That leads me to believe that he is atleast paying some attention to prospects and their growth.    

If the Tigers finish last this year but we see a major growth from our prospects in the minors and young players on the roster I think Avila will be fine but if there is no growth from any young players or they God forbid get worse I truly think Avila could be in some hot water.   

Skubal, Manning, W. Castro, Paredes and Greene are going to save Al's bacon.

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12 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Skubal, Manning, W. Castro, Paredes and Greene are going to save Al's bacon.

I sure hope so(not for Al's sake just for the Tigers sake), cause if those guys all pan out than the team may actually be good in the near future.   We'd have those guys plus still have Mize, Tork, Candy and the 2021 top 3 pick.

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20 hours ago, sabretooth said:

The Tigers need to show that they can develop some non-tanking draft picks and other minor-league acquisitions into plus players.  Willi Castro and Skubal would be a nice start.

Would also be nice if Reyes could add to his OPS this season.

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6 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

Of course it's all speculation on my part but I believe its getting to be put up or shut up time for Avila, particularly with the growth of the prospects.  I think Chris is more in touch with the Tigers system than we give him credit for, I'm basing that off the fact that last spring he reportedly asked for Riley Greene to play because he wanted to watch him in person.  That leads me to believe that he is atleast paying some attention to prospects and their growth.    

If the Tigers finish last this year but we see a major growth from our prospects in the minors and young players on the roster I think Avila will be fine but if there is no growth from any young players or they God forbid get worse I truly think Avila could be in some hot water.   

This makes sense to me.  The prospect development needs to be evident this season.  The rebuild needs to show it is getting ready to turn the corner.

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6 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Skubal, Manning, W. Castro, Paredes and Greene are going to save Al's bacon.

I suspect we won't be seeing Paredes and Candelario as teammates for too long.  Especially if Torkelson shows acumen at 3B.

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6 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Skubal, Manning, W. Castro, Paredes and Greene are going to save Al's bacon.

Manning took a nice step forward in 2019...I wonder how the layoff in 2020 will affect him.

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