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2021 MLB Draft (FUBAR for KUMAR)


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2 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

So, anyone who is a little more knowledgable than I on the farm system.... where does Jobe/Madden likely start out? GCL/Lakeland respectively?

I would assume Madden starts next season at West Michigan and Jobe starts at Lakeland.

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5 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Not sure about Jobe but I would be fine with Madden starting at West Michigan but Lakeland is probably the most likely scenario.

Both Mize and Faedo started off at High A, seems likely Madden would as well.

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will be interesting to see if any stories emerge, post-draft, that perhaps Mayer put out messages that he would be difficult/expensive to sign for certain teams.  a bit conspiracy theorist stuff, but we don't know all of the factors that might have precipitated our selection.

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Thanks for all the posters answering my question. I feel much better knowing form you folks that the Tigers preferred Jobe over Mayer. I say the pre draft "Agreement" on Twitter BTW which made me wonder if they guessed wrong on Mayer not falling but I agree they probably knew it was very possible and just preferred the upside of Jobe.

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2 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

Compares to House.  Likely will have to move to 3rd.  Big power.  Bats Left (House bats right).  More athletic supposedly than House.  May have more LH power than anyone in draft according to Pipeline.

May have more LH power than everyone else in the draft combined.  May be able to destroy planets with his mind.  I'll just hope that he's good.

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1 minute ago, 4hzglory said:

Compares to House.  Likely will have to move to 3rd.  Big power.  Bats Left (House bats right).  More athletic supposedly than House.  May have more LH power than anyone in draft according to Pipeline.

the interesting thing about all of these HS shortstops, is that most of them (including Mayer and House) are thought to be future 3B.  When you think about it, the best athletes on any travel/prep teams are at SS and CF--not all of them can play there as they advance, and many keep growing (taller, thicker).  Watson and Lawlar seem like they could stay at SS.

Heck, Castellanos was his high school SS when we drafted him.  Miggy came up that way, too.  So missing out on Mayer or House as our future SS might be moot--they might end up moving anyway.

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14 hours ago, Microline133 said:

Hill likely heads back to school at this point.

And I'll amend my own statement here...to pop him in round two today, the Rockies absolutely have to have a concrete agreement from Hill that he will sign. If they don't, that pick borders on malpractice.

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Izaac Pacheco, 3B, Friendswood (Texas) HS (No. 30)
A power-over hit guy with well above-average raw power, Pacheco also has a strong arm and projects as a quality defender at the hot corner. He's committed to Texas A&M

(pipeline)

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Just now, kdog said:

Izaac Pacheco, 3B, Friendswood (Texas) HS (No. 30)
A power-over hit guy with well above-average raw power, Pacheco also has a strong arm and projects as a quality defender at the hot corner. He's committed to Texas A&M

(pipeline)

sounds like the HS equivalent of another recent 2nd round pick--Nick Quintana.   Let's hope for better.

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10 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

Compares to House.  Likely will have to move to 3rd.  Big power.  Bats Left (House bats right).  More athletic supposedly than House.  May have more LH power than anyone in draft according to Pipeline.

another right hand fielding 1B.  ?

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Law made a point in his write up about the 1st round that he noticed that teams seemed to put a ton of stock in the hit tool even if they lacked any other tool. I can't remember all the guys/teams he mentioned but the Rays pick was one of them. 

He speculates that it could be a trend where teams go looking for players with great hit tools even if they lack power or much projection....so naturally the Tigers would go the other way. 

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22 minutes ago, Tenacious D said:

sounds like the HS equivalent of another recent 2nd round pick--Nick Quintana.   Let's hope for better.

Quintana was a college kid fwiw...at least this guy has some uncertainty in his profile.

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3 hours ago, RandyMarsh said:

I doubt he is gonna be a generational guy but it does sound like he isn't your usual high upside HS pitcher that may take several years to be ready. 

It sounds like he is much more polished already despite not becoming a full time pitcher till relatively recently. The fact he made this much progress in such a short amount of time leads me to think that he is a great athlete that picks up things quickly. 

Porcello was starting for us a year and a half after being drafted. While I know that whole situation was a bit of an outlier it does show if Jobe is indeed as polished as some have suggested he could help us alot sooner than we think. It's not like there is some hard and fast rule that it takes a HS pitcher 5 yrs to make an impact.

Unless he's a generational talent, or they just don't care about him blowing his arm out, he's not going to throw 100 innings until at least 2025 (when he's 22), and he's not going to throw 150 innings until at least 2026.

It's about the workload on a young arm.  

There are about 50 pitchers over the last 25 years who pitched more than 100 innings in a season before they were 23 years old.  Six of them went on to be borderline or actual HoF level pitchers: Felix, Buerhle, Bumgarner, Kershaw, Grienke, and Halladay (who did not have a good full season as a SP until he was 25). 

Another handful went on to stay healthy and have at least decent/average-ish careers: Porcello, Freddy Garcia, Ervin Santana, Scott Kazmir, and Jeff Suppan. 

Only Buerhle, Halladay, Grienke, and Santana managed to throw more than 200 innings in a season beyond the age of 29. 

The other 40 guys in the above category had a couple of good seasons but were mostly ineffective and/or injured.

Is JJ a generational talent?  Maybe.  Will they throw him to the wolves of MLB hitters in the next 3-4 seasons to find out?  Very unlikely IMO.

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7 minutes ago, sabretooth said:

Unless he's a generational talent, or they just don't care about him blowing his arm out, he's not going to throw 100 innings until at least 2025 (when he's 22), and he's not going to throw 150 innings until at least 2026.

It's about the workload on a young arm.  

There are about 50 pitchers over the last 25 years who pitched more than 100 innings in a season before they were 23 years old.  Six of them went on to be borderline or actual HoF level pitchers: Felix, Buerhle, Bumgarner, Kershaw, Grienke, and Halladay (who did not have a good full season as a SP until he was 25). 

Another handful went on to stay healthy and have at least decent/average-ish careers: Porcello, Freddy Garcia, Ervin Santana, Scott Kazmir, and Jeff Suppan. 

Only Buerhle, Halladay, Grienke, and Santana managed to throw more than 200 innings in a season beyond the age of 29. 

The other 40 guys in the above category had a couple of good seasons but were mostly ineffective and/or injured.

Is JJ a generational talent?  Maybe.  Will they throw him to the wolves of MLB hitters in the next 3-4 seasons to find out?  Very unlikely IMO.

I'd tell him to keep that 3000K slider mostly in his pocket (say 15% use max) for a few years as well.

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