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2021 MLB Draft (FUBAR for KUMAR)


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7 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

I don't hate Jobe pick.  I think the fast movement through the minors of Tork, Dingler, Clemens, Greene etc. is great.  Our org needs to refresh pitching depth as well. 

 

I was thinking about this last night after my initial disappointment with the pick.... the Tigers don't have a ton of depth in the system, but in particular they seem to be lacking in the pitching department versus with positional players. The first round picks will help there.

I wouldn't have picked Jobe, it's still a risky pick even if he has the upside, but it's not a Three Mile Island disaster either.

If they can maybe go SS with 39, coupled with Jobe and Madden (who seems like a steal at that slot), their first couple of rounds look pretty good all things considered.

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Which is where the pre-draft deal with Jobe comes into play...

What will it take to break Chandler's commitment to Clemson? Is he locked in to Clemson...? Or can the (Detroit) Tigers sweet talk him into the Org with a nice over-slot bonus...? I mean, he'd still be able to play for the Tigers... ?

And Avila could promise him that he'd be able to play both SS and pitch, and the Org would develop him as such... that might actually be sort of a cool and enticing carrot...

Hmmmm....

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3 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

I wonder if Chandler would have been picked already if he wasn't going to be Russell Wilson 2.

I don't think there is any question he would have.  This  (and the Madden pick) is where maybe the saved $ from Jobe does come into play.  I still believe they think Jobe has the most upside, or at least close enough to Mayer that the $ differrence was at minimum a tiebreaker, but the $ savings is nice to have now especially when we have the 2nd largest pool to start with.

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31 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

I don't hate Jobe pick.  I think the fast movement through the minors of Tork, Dingler, Clemens, Greene etc. is great.  Our org needs to refresh pitching depth as well. 

 

I wouldn't say Clemens has moved quickly. He was 22 when drafted and should have. This is his 4th year in our system. 

But overall I agree. Just nitpicking. 

 

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28 minutes ago, 84 Lives!!! said:

Which is where the pre-draft deal with Jobe comes into play...

What will it take to break Chandler's commitment to Clemson? Is he locked in to Clemson...? Or can the (Detroit) Tigers sweet talk him into the Org with a nice over-slot bonus...? I mean, he'd still be able to play for the Tigers... ?

And Avila could promise him that he'd be able to play both SS and pitch, and the Org would develop him as such... that might actually be sort of a cool and enticing carrot...

Hmmmm....

Given the choice, baseball can be a longer, better paying and less punishing career than football, but not for top QBs. QB money today is silly by any standard and you can play deep into your 30's.

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4 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Given the choice, baseball can be a longer, better paying and less punishing career than football, but not for top QBs. QB money today is silly by any standard and you can play deep into your 30's.

Looking at the 1987 draft which was considered one of the good ones I guess, the number of picks who didn't sign in the earlier rounds was a lot higher than it is lately.   That's just too much risk/friction to have in a talent stocking process to rely on it when you add in injuries and failure to develop.

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Which player from this draft class is most likely to win a Cy Young or MVP?

McDaniel: It's a cop out to just take my top-rated pitchers (Jack Leiter and Jackson Jobe) and my top-rated position players (Marcelo Mayer and Jordan Lawlar) -- but that's also the correct way to line guys up for this question.

Schoenfield: Well, some were calling Jobe the best high school pitching prospect in years, so even though high school pitchers are a risky group, he's the Cy Young pick. For MVP, I'll go with Davis -- when he leads the Pirates to the 2027 World Series title. Congrats, Pirates fans!

 

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17 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

Looking at the 1987 draft which was considered one of the good ones I guess, the number of picks who didn't sign in the earlier rounds was a lot higher than it is lately.   That's just too much risk/friction to have in a talent stocking process to rely on it when you add in injuries and failure to develop.

The one caveat is that if you don't sign him, you get the draft pick next year. (But you also lose the slot $ from your pool this year)

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23 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Given the choice, baseball can be a longer, better paying and less punishing career than football, but not for top QBs. QB money today is silly by any standard and you can play deep into your 30's.

It'll all depend on what he actually wants to do...

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17 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

Looking at the 1987 draft which was considered one of the good ones I guess, the number of picks who didn't sign in the earlier rounds was a lot higher than it is lately.   That's just too much risk/friction to have in a talent stocking process to rely on it when you add in injuries and failure to develop.

Teams are getting better at talking to prospects and finding out what they want to do. I am guessing they know who the signability issues are and therefore... avoid drafting them until at least the later rounds...

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KG: Detroit used to be easy to project in the draft: just take the kid who throws hard. They returned to their old ways on Sunday by taking a pair of arms who can consistently get into the upper 90s. Jobe has the best raw stuff in the draft, but it was still a bit of a surprise to see them stick with him when Marcelo Mayer was still on the board. I’m the first to admit that I’m a bigger fan of Madden than much of the industry, but he was still seen as likely to go in the teens, and to grab him in the comp round is absolute highway robbery. After using all six of their 2020 draft picks on position players, the Tigers quickly found a way to balance that on Sunday.

EL: It might feel rough for Tigers fans that Marcelo Mayer was sitting there and Detroit took a high school righty third overall instead, but the Tigers honored a verbal agreement here and the cosmic reward for that decision appears to be Ty Madden, who they may not have been able to pay if not for likely cutting a deal at three. I think Tigers pitching dev is actually pretty good, but the track record of high schoolers who are already throwing this hard at the time of draft is really scary.

Fangraphs

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The question remains unanswered is did Detroit select Jobe because they think he is better than Mayer or did they get burned when Mayer was still available and had to keep their word/deal.

What do you folks think ?

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13 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

matt anderson is what you get when you have a radar gun but no Rhapsodo.

I wanted a positional player, Mayer (who I know less than **** about), over another "he throws hard" type of pitcher. Speaking of former prospects like Matt Anderson, when does Eric Munson get the call up?

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1 minute ago, socaltiger said:

The question remains unanswered is did Detroit select Jobe because they think he is better than Mayer or did they get burned when Mayer was still available and had to keep their word/deal.

What do you folks think ?

There was always a relatively decent chance that Mayer would fall so I don't think they would've made a verbal agreement with Jobe if they really wanted to draft Mayer.

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10 minutes ago, socaltiger said:

The question remains unanswered is did Detroit select Jobe because they think he is better than Mayer or did they get burned when Mayer was still available and had to keep their word/deal.

What do you folks think ?

Is teams agreeing to draft someone without even knowing who is available yet even a thing? Where does this stuff come from. 

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26 minutes ago, socaltiger said:

The question remains unanswered is did Detroit select Jobe because they think he is better than Mayer or did they get burned when Mayer was still available and had to keep their word/deal.

What do you folks think ?

There was always a chance that Pittsburgh would low ball and the Rangers take a pitcher, so I don't think they hadn't considered the possibility that Mayer would be there. Avila is really a pretty transparent guy and just to take him at his word both recently and more generally in terms of team building vision I get two things: Al wants to swing for the fences in terms of upside and Jobe matches that. But other is that Avila and Hinch still want to build a strong defensive team and the bottom line is that history denies the likelihood of 200lb+ 6' 3/4" being a good glove shortstop. Sure there are big guys who have played short in the majors but few (Correa excepted as previously noted*) were/are actually plus defenders there. Jeter is the more common outcome, and I think Al's target for a glove at SS is a higher than  Jeter. So a lot of bloom goes off a guy like Mayer once you move him to 3B (for instance would you have taken him over Tork as a 3B?). It's the good bat tied to the premium defensive position that make the Mayer and House attractive. If you take a skeptical view of their odds of being/staying ML SS, you get to Jobe more easily. 

All the above just pure speculation of course but that's how I could rationalize where they ended up.

*and of course if you really want a Correa - you're going to get your chance to get the real one!

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22 minutes ago, socaltiger said:

The question remains unanswered is did Detroit select Jobe because they think he is better than Mayer or did they get burned when Mayer was still available and had to keep their word/deal.

What do you folks think ?

I highly doubt they had Mayer rated higher and went with Jobe because of some prearranged deal. Jobe himself said he didn't know the Tigers would take him until the pick.

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8 minutes ago, ROMAD1 said:

My feelings exactly

 

Literally saw a tweet that said **** Jobe last night.

Really? You may not love the pick, but if you are a Tiger fan, at least root for the guy. It's not his fault he was drafted by this team.

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16 minutes ago, Yoda said:

Is teams agreeing to draft someone without even knowing who is available yet even a thing? Where does this stuff come from. 

I think both of the fangraphs guys said it.

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