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2021 MLB Draft (FUBAR for KUMAR)


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Keith Law's top 4:

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1. Henry Davis, C, Louisville

Davis is now hitting .389/.511/.671 for the Cardinals, walking more than he’s struck out, with power, patience, bat control, and a plus arm. He also offers some certainty in a draft class with very little of it. For more on Davis, check out my in-person scouting report from April.

2. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Preparatory School of Dallas 

Lawlar has the best package of tools in the draft class, with the potential for all five depending on his hit tool, which is the main question scouts still offer about him as a prospect. He’s very quick-twitch with bat speed and power, but he’ll be 19 at the draft and hasn’t faced great competition this spring to raise confidence in how he’ll hit pro pitching.

3. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, CA)

Mayer is a left-handed hitting shortstop who doesn’t have the pure upside of Lawlar, but may be a more advanced hitter for his age. He has a great swing with good balance and the potential for plus power, and he’s a potential 60 defender at short as well.

4. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

Rocker’s up-and-down spring might knock him down a few pegs on draft boards, but he can still show a plus fastball/plus breaking ball combination and has the size to be a durable, 200-inning starter, needing primarily to improve his command and show more consistency when working with men on base.

 

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12 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Taking any breaking ball 1st pitcher from college would make me nervous. As we are seeing with Mize, what is a killer breaking ball in the NCAA may be a pitch that doesn't get you far in the MLB. 

This isn’t aging well 

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1 hour ago, Tenacious D said:

This isn’t aging well 

LOL - Well - yes and no. I would still defend the basic idea to this degree - which is that  in Mize's case, he has enough repertoire that he is succeeding more now as pure power pitcher and the vaunted split-finger pitch, which  was his big claim to fame in college and what all the scouts were raving about, has faded to his 4th pitch - 13 out of 95 pitches tonight behind a retooled 4 seamer, sinker, slider and even his knuckle curve (7 were balls and only one produced a whiff). The split is turning out not to be his calling card to nearly the same degree as it was at Auburn. So I'd argue that the statement that it's not the split that is getting Casey where he is  still has validity.

If I'm scouting Kumar - that is the same thing I want to know - given the possibility his NCAA "wipeout" level slider doesn't play nearly as well at the majors, does he have enough other pitching skills (like mainly FB quality and command) to not to have to depend on it as much.

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So as per Henning we are rooting for Leiter to be too to fall out of the number one spot, so after Lawler is picked 2nd we get Mayer who we like better anyway. A HS SS isn't going to do much to speed any rebuild, but OTOH I generally have a hard time getting excited about college hitters. Maybe Tork will change my mind.

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3 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

So as per Henning we are rooting for Leiter to be too to fall out of the number one spot, so after Lawler is picked 2nd we get Mayer who we like better anyway. A HS SS isn't going to do much to speed any rebuild, but OTOH I generally have a hard time getting excited about college hitters. Maybe Tork will change my mind.

I wouldn't try to "speed up" a rebuild through the draft. Go for the high ceiling.

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I wouldn't put it past the Pirates taking an easy signing to save money so they could spend more later in the draft.  Much like the Orioles did at 2 last year.  I believe the guy the Orioles drafted was only around number 10-15 on people's boards.

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2021 draft will be held July 11 to July 13.  Not sure what the TV schedule is.

It will be 20 rounds.  Tigers get picks 3, 32, 39, 74, 104, 153, and every 30th thereafter.  Slot values are the same as last year, which were the same as 2019.  Teams spending over slot by 0-5 percent will get a monetary penalty.  After that, overspending costs them draft choices.  Slot value for picks after round 10 is $125k. More than that adds to a team's over slot total.  Bonuses for signing undrafted players are limited to $20k.

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I've been following the draft closely for maybe 15 years. If the Tigers have a chance to draft Leiter and pass on him then I think that would be the most surprising 1st round pick (at least from my perspective) in that timeframe. By all indications, he's a better prospect at draft time than Mize was.

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1 hour ago, Scottwood said:

I've been following the draft closely for maybe 15 years. If the Tigers have a chance to draft Leiter and pass on him then I think that would be the most surprising 1st round pick (at least from my perspective) in that timeframe. By all indications, he's a better prospect at draft time than Mize was.

If there is any team where his height will play against him it's probably the Tigers.

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6 hours ago, Scottwood said:

I've been following the draft closely for maybe 15 years. If the Tigers have a chance to draft Leiter and pass on him then I think that would be the most surprising 1st round pick (at least from my perspective) in that timeframe. By all indications, he's a better prospect at draft time than Mize was.

How is he a better prospect than Mize?

Just wondering...

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On 5/19/2021 at 2:41 PM, RandyMarsh said:

I wouldn't put it past the Pirates taking an easy signing to save money so they could spend more later in the draft....

That would be the absolute best scenario for us... dropping one of Lawlar or Mayer to #3.

But I would take Davis if those two are gone... with the uncertainty that he'd stick at catcher... could he handle RF (with a huge arm)?

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