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bobrob2004

MotownSports Fan
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Everything posted by bobrob2004

  1. I want them to stop trading established players for prospects. I want to get in a position where we are trading our prospects for established talent again. Why can't we try to trade Manning/Faedo for an All-Star hitter? Maybe because they aren't as good as we think?
  2. Exactly. Whenever the Tigers are performing poorly, I change the scenery on my tv and I feel a whole lot better.
  3. I wonder if Cabrera is still injured and thinks that he can just play through it because that's what he used to do in his prime.
  4. Worst records since 1962 (when they expanded to 162 games): 1. 1962 Mets, .250 2. 2003 Tigers, .265 3. 2021 Tigers*, .267 4. 1918 Orioles, .290 5. 1919 Tigers, .291 The Tigers are on pace to be one of the worst 5 teams in the last 59 years...again.
  5. To answer the question, Cabrera is 73rd in infield hits with 138, according to FanGraphs. However, they didn't start tracking this stat until 2002. Ichiro is #1 with 551 infield hits. Jeter is #2 with 294.
  6. What's interesting is that FanGraphs says that Cabrera doesn't even have an infield hit this year. fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0
  7. I see Akil Baddoo a-rising I see doubles on the way I see home runs and stealing I see fun times today Come to CoPa tonight Well he’s bound to get a hit There’s A. Baddoo on the rise I hear Tiger fans a-cheering Even though the stadium isn’t full He sees everyone is gearing To see that he is on a roll Come to CoPa tonight Well he’s bound to get a hit There’s A. Baddoo on the rise, all right! Hope you got your tickets together Hope you are buying into his game Looks like he’ll go on like this forever One day he’ll be in the Hall of Fame Well, come to CoPa tonight Well he’s bound to get a hit There’s A. Baddoo on the rise Come to CoPa tonight Well he’s bound to get a hit There’s A. Baddoo on the rise
  8. Baddoo hits terribly and gets sent back to Minnesota per rule 5 draft rules. Cabrera gets injured while playing 1B and is sidelined for over 2 months. Isaac Paredes takes Cabrera's roster spot and hits surprisingly well. Greg Soto gets 30 saves. Matt Manning pitches more Major League innings than Casey Mize. The Tigers have a winning percentage of over .400 for the first time since 2016.
  9. And that's it for my preseason predictions for 2021. I could do 2 more, but I don't feel like it. Even though Mize is in the rotation now, I see him going back to AAA once Turnbull comes back. I see him going up and down several times during the year but not pitching much to make any sort of impact, unless a major injury happens (and even then, they may pass him by and go with Manning). Then there's the issue with the other infielder. Everyone thought Nunez was going to make the team, but Hinch likes playing musical chairs with 1B, 2B, and 3B. Goodrum will likely get the majority of the playing time here and I don't feel like writing 500 words on how he will hit .220.
  10. Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #13 – Julio Alberto Teheran Pinto From 2013-2019 Julio Teheran was a pretty good pitcher in Atlanta with a 3.64 in 1334 innings pitched. In those 7 years he was a 2-time all-star and a below 4.00 ERA 5 times. He was also a workhorse, starting at least 30 games in each of the 7 years. And then 2020 hit. Pitching with a new team in a new league, Teheran was winless in 2020 with a 10.05 ERA in over 31 innings pitched. Unsurprisingly, the Angels did not resign him and he signed a minor league deal with the Tigers. Despite a 5.52 ERA in Spring Training, Teheran was good enough to make the starting rotation. Can he go back to a sub 4.00 ERA pitcher like he was in his prime? Teheran is entering his age 30 season, so it is likely that his best days are behind him. While he won’t be confused with Max Scherzer, Teheran was able to have a pretty decent strikeout rate, hovering around 8-8.3 K/9 until 2020 when it was 5.7 K/9. Walks were a bit of an issue his last few years (4.3 BB/9 in 2018 and 2019) and continued in 2020 with a 4.6 BB/9. Home runs allowed were up and down his whole career, but were really bad in 2020 (3.5 HR/9). Combine all three terrible rates in 2020, and no wonder his ERA was north of 10. Looking at the luck factor, and Teheran has outperformed his FIP for most of his career. 2017: 4.49 ERA | 4.54 FIP 2018: 3.94 ERA | 4.48 FIP 2019: 3.81 ERA | 4.66 FIP 2020: 10.05 ERA | 8.62 FIP Of course, it’s not all luck. But given the fact that he’s past his prime, now pitching in a league with a DH, and showed very little in 2020, I don’t have much hope for him other than being an innings eater. Ladies and gentleman, meet the new Jordan Zimmermann. Thank god it doesn’t come with a $25 million price tag. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 111 IP | 5-9 W/L | 5.95 ERA | 1.58 WHIP | 84 K | 52 BB ZiPS – 143 2/3 IP | 8-10 W/L | 5.14 ERA | 1.39 WHIP | 125 K | 64 BB THE BAT – 112 IP | 5-9 W/L | 5.42 ERA | 1.46 WHIP | 81 K | 51 BB RotoChamp – 109 IP | 5-8 W/L | 5.37 ERA | 1.45 WHIP | 87 K | 49 BB CBS Sports – N/A ESPN – 83 IP | 3 W | 4.88 ERA | 1.37 WHIP | 71 K | 38 BB My Prediction: 2020 Prediction – N/A 2020 Actual – 31 1/3 IP | 0-4 W/L | 10.05 ERA | 1.755 WHIP | 20 K | 16 BB 2021 Prediction – 173 1/3 IP | 8-10 W/L | 4.88 ERA | 1.385 WHIP | 135 K | 84 BB
  11. Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #12 – Nomar Shamir Mazara Jiminian Nomar Mazara hit 20 home runs in each of his first three Major League seasons. Mr. Inconsistency only hit 19 home runs in his fourth season before really falling off a cliff with one home run in 2020. He has been a slightly below average player for most of his career with an OPS+ between 90-96 before becoming a very poor, below average hitter with a 63 OPS+ in 2020. Of course, the 2020 “season” wasn’t much of a season at all, so we can probably throw it out the window. The Big Chill is only entering his age 26 season, so there’s no reason to talk about a decline when he most likely hasn’t even entered his prime yet. His power numbers are his biggest asset and they were all trending in the right direction before 2020. 2017: .170 ISO | 8.4% XBH% | 13.6% HR/FB 2018: .178 ISO | 8.6% XBH% | 20.0% HR/FB 2019: .200 ISO | 10.0% XBH% | 17.8% HR/FB Unfortunately, his ISO was a laughable .066 in 2020 with a 4.7% extra base hit rate. That’s Isaac Paredes territory. Nomar’s hard hit rate was also improving every year from 32.6% in 2017 to 37.5% in 2018 to 45.3% in 2019. And then back down to 32.6% in 2020. So there may have been a bit of bad luck involved in the small sample size of 2020. What was going in the wrong direction, though, were the strikeouts and walks. His walk rate was an all-time high of 8.9% in 2017 and went down to 6% in 2019. His strikeout rate also trended in the opposite direction, going from 20.6% in 2017 to 23% in 2019 (and 29.5% in 2020). It’s hard to say exactly what to expect from Mazara in 2021. He’ll likely benefit from a regular Spring Training routine as well as a new team. But there are also areas that he needs to improve on if he wants to get to the above average 100+ OPS status. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 363 AB | .251/.316/.443 | 17 HR | 53 RBI | 2 SB | 31 BB | 96 K ZiPS – 484 AB | .258/.313/.426 | 17 HR | 67 RBI | 2 SB | 34 BB | 126 K THE BAT – 392 AB | .244/.313/.400 | 49 RBI | 2 SB | 36 BB | 97 K RotoChamp – 386 AB | .249/.309/.412 | 54 RBI | 2 SB | 31 BB | 100 K CBS Sports – N/A ESPN – 421 AB | .254/.312/.420 | 61 RBI | 2 SB | 32 BB | 104 K My Prediction: 2020 Prediction – N/A 2020 Actual – 136 AB | .228/.295/.294 | 1 HR | 15 RBI | 0 SB | 10 BB | 44 K 2021 Prediction – 482 AB | .255/.307/.417 | 17 HR | 69 RBI | 2 SB | 33 BB | 116 K
  12. Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #11 – Jose Miguel Urena Rodriguez When Spring Training began, it was unclear whether Jose Urena was going to be a starter or a reliever. But with Turnbull going on the DL and Casey Mize destined for Toledo, room cleared in the starting rotation. Jose Urena showed promise in his young career in 2017-18 when he pitched over 340 innings with a 3.90 ERA. In 2019, he was the opening day starter for the Marlins, but struggled with consistency. After 13 starts and an ERA of 4.70, he suffered a herniated disc injury and was placed on the IL and missed about 2 months. When he came back, he struggled in 10 relief appearances, allowing 10 earned runs in 11 innings. In 2020, Urena didn’t appear in any games until September, only making 5 starts with a 5.40 ERA before missing the playoffs with a freak injury after getting hit in the arm by a line drive. During his two good years, Urena struggled with wildness, leading the league in hit batsmen both years. However, he improved on his walk rate, going from 3.4 BB/9 in 2017 to 2.6 BB/9 in 2018. His strikeout rate is nothing to get excited about, 6.1 K/9 for his career, peaking at 6.7 K/9 in 2018. Overall, Urena may have been a bit lucky in his two good years: 2017: 3.82 ERA | 5.20 FIP 2018: 3.98 ERA | 4.17 FIP 2019: 5.21 ERA | 4.74 FIP 2020: 5.40 ERA | 6.06 FIP While Urena is only entering his age 29 season, the fact that he is injury prone, does not strike out batters, is wild with his pitches, and deliberately throws at hitters who are on a hot streak (Ron Acuna, Jr.) does not leave me with much hope. Add to the fact that he's switching leagues that now includes a designated hitter...yikes! Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 127 IP | 6-9 W/L | 5.22 ERA | 1.46 WHIP | 94 K | 45 BB ZiPS – 64 IP | 3-3 W/L | 4.50 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 51 K | 25 BB THE BAT – 122 IP | 6-9 W/L | 4.81 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 87 K | 42 BB RotoChamp – 113 IP | 5-7 W/L | 4.86 ERA | 1.40 WHIP | 85 K | 41 BB CBS Sports – N/A ESPN – 115 IP | 4 W | 5.09 ERA | 1.39 WHIP | 79 K | 42 BB My Prediction: 2020 Prediction – N/A 2020 Actual – 23 1/3 IP | 0-3 W/L | 5.40 ERA | 1.500 WHIP | 15 K | 13 BB 2021 Prediction – 103 1/3 | 4-8 W/L | 5.49 ERA | 1.442 WHIP | 70 K | 41 BB
  13. Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #10 – JaCoby Mylon Jones JaCoby Jones has been with the Tigers for the past 5 years, one of the longest current tenured Tigers – only Miguel Cabrera, Matt Boyd, Daniel Norris, and Buck Farmer have been here longer. And during that time he has only appeared in over 100 games once, in 2018. See, durability is not one of JaCoby Jones’ strong suits (even in 2020, he only appeared in slightly over half the games the Tigers played). 2020 was JaCoby Jones’ age 28 season, an age where most players have their best seasons, and this was certainly the case for Jones. He had career highs in batting average (.268), on-base percentage (.333), slugging percentage (.515), and OPS+ (127). He only hit 5 home runs due to the small sample size, but he had a 4.6 percent home run rate, and a 13 percent extra base hit rate, both career highs. Is the power going to be consistent, though? He has steadily increased his power over the last few years: 2018: .156 ISO 2019: .195 ISO 2020: .247 ISO I believe that the small sample size of 2020 is inflating his power a bit, but I could see him closer to his 2019 power numbers. Another thing that could be inflated in 2020 is his batting average. Going into the 2020, Jones had a .211 career batting average. Jumping to .268 is a big leap, especially given his .356 BABIP. His batting average of .350 on fly balls seems to be more luck than talent. I expect a regression in 2021. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 441 AB | .228/.296/.388 | 14 HR | 51 RBI | 10 SB | 35 BB | 148 K ZiPS – 392 AB | .235/.299/.416 | 14 HR | 43 RBI | 9 SB | 28 BB | 129 K THE BAT – 458 AB | .229/.298/.394 | 15 HR | 52 RBI | 10 SB | 38 BB | 149 K RotoChamp – 459 AB | .233/.302/.410 | 16 HR | 50 RBI | 10 SB | 35 BB | 152 K CBS Sports – 439 AB | .255/.324/.431 | 16 HR | 52 RBI | 7 SB | 40 BB | 127 K ESPN – 275 AB | .236/.304/.418 | 9 HR | 27 RBI | 7 SB | 20 BB | 91 K My Prediction: 2020 Prediction – 410 AB | .212/.276/.415 | 16 HR | 37 RBI | 14 SB | 32 BB | 140 K 2020 Actual – 97 AB | .268/.333/.515 | 5 HR | 14 RBI | 1 SB | 7 BB | 34 K 2021 Prediction – 383 AB | .225/.286/.415 | 13 HR | 32 RBI | 8 SB | 25 BB | 124 K
  14. Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #9 – Wilson Abraham Ramos Campos With the departure of Austin Romine and absolutely no progress from Grayson Greiner and Jake Rogers, the Tigers needed to sign another catcher. Enter former all-star Wilson Ramos. From 2016-2019, Wilson Ramos was an above average player. He hit .294/.346/.463 with an OPS+ of 115 and two all-star appearances. However, in 2020, he only hit .239/.297/.387 with an 88 OPS+. This could be just a small sample size, or it just might be the start of a decline. Ramos is on the wrong side of 30 and catchers do tend to decline faster than other players. One stat that sticks out is the ground ball rate. His career average is 55.4 percent and was as high as 62.4 percent in 2019, when he hit .288. Ramos isn’t known for his speed, so it’s amazing that he has been able to have a pretty high average while hitting the ball on the ground at 50-60 percent of the time. In 2020, his batting average was at .239, a more reasonable batting average for a non-speedster with that many ground balls. The Buffalo has spent the majority of his time in the National League. He did spend a year and a half in Tampa Bay, where he hit .281/.323/.471, compared to his career stats of .274/.321/.434. There’s not much difference, so there probably won’t be an adjustment period for switching leagues. Although, I do believe he is at the start of a decline, so I see more of the same from 2020. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 266 AB | .279/.337/.451 | 11 HR | 38 RBI | 1 SB | 22 BB | 49 K ZiPS – 404 AB | .270/.321/.403 | 12 HR | 57 RBI | 0 SB | 29 BB | 69 K THE BAT – 269 AB | .267/.326/.401 | 8 HR | 34 RBI | 0 SB | 23 BB | 48 K RotoChamp – 307 AB | .270/.327/.417 | 10 HR | 43 RBI | 1 SB | 25 BB | 56 K CBS Sports – 377 AB | .257/.316/.395 | 12 HR | 48 RBI | 0 SB | 31 BB | 84 K ESPN – 362 AB | .279/.336/.434 | 13 HR | 58 RBI | 0 SB | 29 BB | 58 K My Prediction: 2020 Prediction – N/A 2020 Actual – 142 AB | .239/.297/.387 | 5 HR | 15 RBI | 0 SB | 10 BB | 31 K 2021 Prediction – 344 AB | .241/.293/.369 | 9 HR | 38 RBI | 0 SB | 23 BB | 79 K
  15. Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #8 – Willi Rafael Castro Capellan The Tigers best hitter of 2020 by far was Willi Castro. He led the team in batting average (.349), on base percentage (.381), slugging percentage (.550) and OPS+ (150). And he is only entering his age 24 season. The fact that he has the stats to bat in the middle of the order and play at a premium position of shortstop is nothing short of astonishing. Now how much of this is real talent and how much of it is small sample fluke? Willi Castro has only ever displayed this power in the minor leagues once, in the 26 games in 2018 in AA right after the Tigers traded for him (.238 ISO, .562 SLG). In 2019 in AAA, Castro had a .166 ISO and a .467 SLG and in the Majors, he had a .110 ISO and a .340 SLG. Although rare, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Castro could have all of a sudden develop real power and be able to carry that in the future. What is unbelievable is maintaining a .448 batting average in balls in play. That’s not going to happen. Castro’s walk rate has never exceeded 7 percent in the minors and was only 5 percent last year. His strikeout rate is also high, 30.9 percent in 2019, 27.1 percent in 2020, and around 17-21 percent in the minors. If Castro is going to succeed in the Majors, it’s going to be because of his high batting average and keeping maintaining some of his power he showed in 2020. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 495 AB | .264/.315/.418 | 14 HR | 61 RBI | 9 SB | 31 BB | 123 K ZiPS – 556 AB | .277/.322/.437 | 16 HR | 72 RBI | 10 SB | 31 BB | 140 K THE BAT – 458 AB | .254/.305/.398 | 11 HR | 50 RBI | 7 SB | 30 BB | 117 K RotoChamp – 487 AB | .267/.313/.417 | 13 HR | 59 RBI | 9 SB | 30 BB | 126 K CBS Sports – 582 AB | .299/.348/.488 | 24 HR | 82 RBI | 9 SB | 43 BB | 144 K ESPN – 387 AB | .282/.335/.439 | 9 HR | 47 RBI | 10 SB | 25 BB | 95 K My Prediction: 2020 Prediction – N/A 2020 Actual – 129 AB | .349/.381/.550 | 6 HR | 24 RBI | 0 SB | 7 BB |38 K 2021 Prediction – 508 AB | .272/.315/.423 | 15 HR | 73 RBI | 4 SB | 30 BB | 140 K
  16. I haven't even considered him because he's not on the 40-man roster. But it looks like Renato Nunez will make the team at 1B, so it could happen. I still not convinced that Mazara will make the team and he is on the 40-man roster.
  17. Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #7 – Tarik Daniel Skubal The Tigers have six potential starting pitchers: Spencer Turnbull Matt Boyd Tarik Skubal Casey Mize Michael Fulmer Jose Urena But only room for a five man rotation. That means one pitcher will either get moved to the bullpen or sent to AAA. With only one year of Major League experience, the odd one out could be Tarik Skubal, who had a 5.63 ERA with a 3.1 BB/9, 10.4 K/9, and a 1.22 WHIP in 32 innings. However, the Tigers seem committed again to their young starters with the only free agent signing capable of taking a rotation spot being Jose Urena, and it’s no guarantee that he will take one. Tarik Skubal led the Tigers starters in strikeout rate (26.7 percent), WHIP (1.22), and batting average against (.231) and was second in walk rate (8.2 percent), ERA (5.63), and FIP (5.75). Just like several other Tiger pitchers, the home run ball was a big weakness. He had a HR/9 of 2.5 and a 20 percent HR/FB ratio. Despite the unremarkable ERA, Skubal was a highlight of the rotation last year, mainly due to the strikeouts. In AA in 2019, Skubal had a 48.2 percent strikeout rate, so the strikeouts are real. Also based on his minor league numbers, the walk rate and home run rate should also improve. He is developing a splitter, which shows that he is willing to adjust. This is a good sign from a young player and that gives me an optimistic outlook, especially if it results in less home runs and walks. https://www.blessyouboys.com/2021/2/25/22298019/detroit-tigers-tarik-skubal-2021-player-previews-spring-training Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 105 IP | 6-7 W/L | 4.37 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 114 K | 42 BB ZiPS – 110 IP | 7-8 W/L | 4.91 ERA | 1.36 WHIP | 119 K | 44 BB THE BAT – 91 IP | 5-8 W/L | 4.39 ERA | 1.29 WHIP | 98 K | 35 BB RotoChamp – N/A CBS Sports – N/A ESPN – 133 IP | 6 W | 4.26 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 138 K | 49 BB My Prediction: 2020 Prediction – N/A 2020 Actual – 32 IP | 1-4 W/L | 5.63 ERA | 1.219 WHIP | 37 K | 11 BB 2021 Prediction – 125 1/3 IP | 7-5 W/L | 4.02 ERA | 1.205 WHIP | 146 K | 36 BB
  18. Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #6 – Robert Edward Grossman With very disappointing seasons of Christin Stewart (.167/.224/.300) and Daz Cameron (.193/.220/.263) the Tigers needed to strengthen their outfield. One signing was veteran player Robert Grossman, who briefly played under manager A.J. Hinch in 2015 with Houston. Grossman spent most of the 2015 in the minor leagues after playing 103 games in the majors (.233/.337/.333 with a 92 OPS+) one year earlier. In 2015, he hit .143/.222/.245 with a 31 OPS+ in 24 games in the big leagues and was promptly released. Minnesota signed in and he had his best year to date in 2016, hitting .280/.386/.443 with a 124 OPS+ in 99 big league games. He has since hit around league average until 2020 when he hit .241/.344/.482 with a career high 130 OPS+. Robbie Grossman’s biggest strength is his ability to get on base. His walk rate is routinely above 10 percent, being as high as over 14 percent in his first two years with the Twins. With his above average OBP and ability to get double digit stolen bases makes him a good fit for the leadoff spot. Tigers’ leadoff hitters had a combined .289 OBP last year with only 5 stolen bases. Rob Grossman displayed surprising power in 2020. He had a career highs in SLG (.482) and ISO (.241). His previous highs were both in 2016, .443 SLG and .163 ISO. He hit two more home runs in 2020 than he did in 2019 despite getting 290 less PA. Now the question remains if this power is for real and will he be able to carry this in 2021, or was it just a small sample fluke? Some players mature later than others. While Grossman is entering his age 31 season, he is still in his prime years. Even if it’s late to have a breakout year in power like he did in 2020, it’s not impossible that he can’t keep it up. I’m going to be cautiously optimistic here. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 450 AB | .254/.354/.411 | 13 HR | 55 RBI | 10 SB | 67 BB | 100 K ZiPS – 401 AB | .249/.343/.406 | 11 HR | 47 RBI | 9 SB | 55 BB | 87 K THE BAT – 460 AB | .243/.338/.373 | 10 HR | 49 RBI | 8 SB | 63 BB | 99 K RotoChamp – 448 AB | .250/.346/.400 | 12 HR | 51 RBI | 10 SB | 63 BB | 97 K CBS Sports – N/A ESPN – 413 AB | .247/.345/.392 | 10 HR | 46 RBI | 9 SB | 59 BB | 83 K My Prediction: 2020 Prediction – N/A 2020 Actual – 166 AB | .241/.344/.482 | 8 HR | 23 RBI | 8 SB | 21 BB |38 K 2021 Prediction – 474 AB | .247/.342/.439 | 17 HR | 56 RBI | 15 SB | 66 BB | 110 K
  19. Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #5 – Matthew Robert Boyd It was not a good year for Matt Boyd. He led the league in losses with 7, had a 6.71 ERA and for the second year in a row led the league in home runs allowed. He has shown glimpses of hope in the past (in his first 14 starts in 2018 he had a 3.63 ERA and in his first 14 games in 2019 he had a 3.08 ERA), but ultimately floundered in the 2nd half. In 2020, we had no 1st half, so we just got the dreadful 2nd half (in his final 17 starts in 2018 he had a 5.04 ERA and in his final 18 games in 2019, he had a 5.81 ERA). Matt Boyd is entering is age 30 season and one has to wonder if he will ever have a consistent enough season. His strikeout rate is a positive (9 K/9), but he may not see double digits like he did in 2019 (11.6 K/9). As mentioned above, home runs allowed is a huge problem (2.2 HR/9) and walks were also up in 2020 (3.3 BB/9 compared to 2.4 BB/9 in 2019). Boyd’s fastball continues to decline. Look at the results over the past few years on 4-seamers: 2018: .243 BAA | .448 SLG 2019: .269 BAA | .519 SLG 2020: .316 BAA | .632 SLG And yet he continued to throw it about half the time, 49.5% in 2020; 50.9% in 2019; 38.9% in 2018 (according to Pitch Info). It’s hard to know what Boyd will do under a new pitching coach. It’s also hard to be optimistic, but he couldn’t do worse than he did last year. Could he? Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 172 IP | 9-11 W/L | 4.49 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 177 K | 55 BB ZiPS – 164 1/3 IP | 11-11 W/L | 4.55 ERA | 1.27 WHIP | 179 K | 49 BB THE BAT – 166 IP | 9-11 W/L | 4.28 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 172 K | 53 BB RotoChamp – 169 IP | 9-11 W/L | 4.53 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 178 K | 53 BB CBS Sports – 147 2/3 IP | 9-12 W/L | 4.75 ERA | 1.40 WHIP | 172 K | 50 BB ESPN – 182 IP | 8 W | 4.55 ERA | 1.31 WHIP | 193 K | 60 BB My Prediction: 2020 Prediction – 186 IP | 12-9 W/L | 3.92 ERA | 1.194 WHIP | 218 K | 51 BB 2020 Actual – 60 1/3 IP | 3-7 W/L | 6.71 ERA | 1.475 WHIP | 60 K | 22 BB 2021 Prediction – 171 IP | 7-12 W/L | 5.11 ERA | 1.374 WHIP | 158 K | 59 BB
  20. Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #4 – Jeimer No-name Candelario After a disappointing 2019 season, Jeimer Candelario was off to a rough start again in 2020. In his first 70 PA, he hit .242/.286/.424, but in his final 136 PA he hit .328/.412/.546 and finished as one of the Tigers better hitters with a 135 OPS+ (only Willi Castro’s 150 and C.J. Cron’s 139 were better). Candelario’s power was the best it has ever been in his career. His .205 ISO and 10.2 percent extra base hit rate were career highs. Given a full season at the same home run pace and Candelario would have easily surpassed 20 home runs. He showed glimpses of this power in 2018, but that came with a .224 batting average. In 2020, his batting average was a career high .297. Now comes the real question. How much of this is sustainable during a full 162 game season? His batting average on balls in play was .372, which screams unsustainable. In 2018 and 2019, his BABIP was .279 and .262 and his batting averages were .224 and 203 respectfully. Even if there was a mechanical change, .372 BABIP is just not a realistic number that can be repeated. And as much that has changed with his hitting stats, his walk rate (9.7 percent) and strikeout rate (23.8 percent) are pretty much on par with his career totals. The walk rate is still an impressive number, but it decreased from 2018 (10.7 percent) and 2019 (11.1 percent). The good news is that Candelario is entering his age 27 season, an age where a lot of hitters are entering their prime. He can take the stuff that he worked in 2020 and hone them into a good hitter for the next few years, but probably not with a .300 batting average. A .250 hitter with 20 home run power with a decent walk rate is still a valuable #2 hitter. Although given the positions that he plays, 1B/3B, you can probably do better on the open market. (That's my fantasy baseball advice to you). Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 515 AB | .245/.336/.434 | 21 HR | 72 RBI | 4 SB | 64 BB | 147 K ZiPS – 516 AB | .252/.331/.442 | 20 HR | 72 RBI | 3 SB | 56 BB | 143 K THE BAT – 517 AB | .239/.323/.413 | 18 HR | 65 RBI | 3 SB | 59 BB | 138 K RotoChamp – 509 AB | .248/.331/.430 | 19 HR | 68 RBI | 3 SB | 59 BB | 141 K CBS Sports – 543 AB | .274/.352/.475 | 23 HR | 81 RBI | 3 SB | 62 BB | 140 K ESPN – 528 AB | .252/.337/.430 | 18 HR | 66 RBI | 3 SB | 61 BB | 145 K My Prediction: 2020 Prediction – 343 AB | .210/.300/.344 | 8 HR | 31 RBI | 2 SB | 37 BB | 101 K 2020 Actual – 185 AB | /.297/.369/.503 | 7 HR | 29 RBI | 1 SB | 20 BB | 49 K 2021 Prediction – 479 AB | .244/.328/.424 | 17 HR | 64 RBI | 3 SB | 56 BB |134 K
  21. My fantasy league is dying. It's been going on since 2010. If you are interested in joining, click here https://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1/59189/invitation?key=02cdcb445d9d3bad&soc_trk=lnk&ikey=00665ddc772a8f7c Draft date is March 26 at 8:30pm. If I don't get a total of 10 teams, I'm going to delete the league. I have it set up for 14 teams.
  22. Justin Verlander will eventually get Tommy John Surgery. Oh sorry, that was an old prediction, not a bold prediction. My bad.
  23. Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #3 – Spencer Ketcham Turnbull Spencer Turnbull was hands down the Tigers best starting pitcher in 2020. The top 3 ERA starting pitchers for the Tigers were Turnbull at 3.97, Tarik Skubal at 5.63 and Matt Boyd at 6.71. Some other selected stats: K/9: 8.1, good BB/9: 4.6, very poor HR/9: 0.3, excellent One stat that sticks out for Tigers pitchers is that the strikeout rates are now back up. The top 4 Tigers starters, Spencer Turnbull, Tarik Skubal, Matt Boyd, and Casey Mize all had K/9 of 8+. Sure, they were small sample sizes. But given the minor league performances of Turnbull, Skubal, and Mize, there’s no reason not to believe they can’t keep high strikeout rates in the Majors. This is very encouraging as these are meant to be the core of the rotation for the next few years. Now the bad news. The walk rate of Turnbull was very poor and his home run rate seems to be unsustainable. Both could be attributed to the small sample size. However, the wildness is there as in 2019 Turnbull led the American League in hit batsmen at 16. If he can keep his stikeouts up and homeruns down, the walk rate isn’t that big of a deal, especially if he can lower it down to 3.6 BB/9 like in 2019. His FIP was at 3.49 last year, which is good, but his xFIP was at 4.53, which shows the unsustainability of his home run rate. As for his pitching repertoire, he threw more percentages of changeups (9 percent) and less curveballs (4.2 percent) in 2020 than he did in 2019 (3 percent and 12.1 percent, respectfully) as he is figuring out what works and doesn’t work at the Major League level. Add in a new pitching coach Chris Fetter and he could take big steps in 2021. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 147 IP | 8-10 W/L | 4.49 ERA | 1.39 WHIP | 136 K | 60 BB ZiPS – 141 2/3 IP | 10-9 W/L | 4.51 ERA | 1.40 WHIP | 138 K | 58 BB THE BAT – 149 IP | 8-10 W/L | 4.40 ERA | 1.37 WHIP | 133 K | 59 BB RotoChamp – 153 IP | 9-9 W/L | 4.29 ERA | 1.39 WHIP | 143 K | 63 BB CBS Sports – N/A ESPN – 156 IP | 7 W | 4.27 ERA | 1.37 WHIP | 146 K | 65 BB My Prediction: 2020 Prediction – 152 1/3 IP | 8-8 W/L | 4.37 ERA | 1.392 WHIP | 151 K | 62 BB 2020 Actual – 56 2/3 IP | 4-4 W/L | 3.97 ERA | 1.341 WHIP | 51 K | 29 BB 2021 Prediction – 157 2/3 IP | 9-8 W/L | 4.11 ERA | 1.395 WHIP | 159 K | 71 BB
  24. Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #2 – Jonathan Rufino Jezus Schoop Jonny Schoop had a pretty good year in 2020. Statistically, it was his 2nd best year behind his all-star 2017 season. His batting average was .278 and his wRC+ was at 114. However, his walk rate (4.5 percent) and strikeout rate (22 percent) were right around his career average. The stat that sticks out the most was his ground ball rate at 51.2 percent. This is the only time that it has reached over 50 percent in his career (ignoring the 5 games he played in 2013). This is most likely a small sample size effect of not playing a full season (he did only play in 44 of the Tigers’ 58 games) or it could be a conscious decision to change his approach (Comerica Park isn’t a bandbox that Camden Yards is). Assuming the later, his batting average could be slightly inflated as his batting average on ground balls was .250, up from .217 in 2019 and .166 in 2018. More ground balls results in less fly balls and thus less home runs (and power overall). His ISO in 2020 was .198 (down from .217 in 2019). And his extra base hit rate was only 7.9 percent in 2020, the lowest it has been since his rookie year in 2014 (7.1 percent). In 2019, his extra base hit rate was 10.1 percent and his career mark is 9.2 percent. This isn’t a good sign, but small sample size beware. Jon Schoop is entering his age 30 season and is at the point where his numbers could start to decline. If he once again has a ground ball rate over 50 percent with more realistic results in batting average, it could result in a disappointing year. Consider the fact that just three years ago he hit .233/.266/.416 with an 80 wRC+ might be closer to his current talent level than what we saw in 2020. Experts’ Predictions/Projections: Steamer – 476 AB | .253/.301/.452 | 22 HR | 69 RBI | 2 SB | 26 BB | 122 K ZiPS – 502 AB | .269/.309/.468 | 24 HR | 75 RBI | 1 SB | 22 BB | 114 K THE BAT – 489 AB | .262/.311/.457 | 22 HR | 70 RBI | 28 BB | 116 K RotoChamp – 472 AB | .263/.305/.466 | 23 HR | 68 RBI | 24 BB | 115 K CBS Sports – 493 AB | .264/.313/.434 | 19 HR | 58 RBI | 29 BB | 129 K ESPN – 450 AB | .264/.308/.467 | 22 HR | 64 RBI | 21 BB | 108 K My Prediction: 2020 Prediction – 542 AB | .253/.295/.448 | 25 HR | 69 RBI | 1 SB | 24 BB | 139 K 2020 Actual – 162 AB | .278/.324/.475 | 8 HR | 23 RBI | 0 SB | 8 BB | 39 K 2021 Prediction – 425 AB | .240/.281/.409 | 19 HR | 61 RBI | 1 SB | 20 BB | 109 K
  25. Does Niko even have a starting position?
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