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STLTiger69

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Everything posted by STLTiger69

  1. I want to add that it's simply a business decision for the Tigers to make and Alex (and his daddy) are aware that the Alex of .295 BA and .895 OPS from 2011 is long gone. In 2012 it was .243/.736 then 2013 it was .227/.693 and now for 2014 it was .218/.686. And what is scary about those numbers, is that Avila had more plate appearances in 2014 (457 PA) than 2013 (379 PA) and 2012 (434 PA). So since his breakout 2011 season, you saw what a relatively more "healthy" or "typical" Avila can do in 2014 more than in 2013 & 2012 and I'm still not really impressed. Take a deep breath, purge Alex Avila's name from your mind. Pretend your a GM thinking about retaining a catcher named Zigga Zavila who hit .218 with a OPS of .686 for 2014 and his performance has been going down since 2011. Do you write a check for $5 million for 2015 or a goodbye check for $200K and see what else you can find on the market? Now with the cold hard truth of the matter being said, I have ZERO problem with the Tigers giving Avila a check for $200K to buy out his contract for 2015 with Dombrowski saying to Avila and his agent "See what the market will give you, CALL US BEFORE YOU SIGN WITH ANOTHER TEAM (if you want) and the Tigers might be able to beat that. Simply put, the Tigers would be happy to have you back, just not for $5M right now." I personally think Avila would be better situated for at least a season being a back-up/platoon player more than a everyday catcher for the time being and $5M for that kind of player is too much money to spend on Avila with the decline in performance and the concussion issues. Just my 2 cents....
  2. Excatly the point. If Cabrera was healthy in 2013, nobody would be second guessing Davis' use of PED's as to "stealing" the triple crown from Cabrera, because a healthy Cabrera simply would have won the triple crown in 2013, REGARDLESS of Davis' PED use, exemption, non-use, whatever....But Cabrera wasn't healthy. Did anyone "steal" via PED use Victor Matinez's 2012 shot at a triple crown too or was it Martinez's injury itself that did the trick?
  3. Cabrera had a groin tear that required off season surgery after the 2013 season was over. In 2012 for the month of September/October, (without a groin tear) Cabrera hit .332 hit 11 home runs and 30 RBI's (September was Cabrera's most productive month for HR's and RBI's) In 2013, September/October, (with a groin tear), Cabrera hit .278 with 1 home run and 7 RBI's. Chris Davis in 2013 hit 9 more home runs (53) vs Cabrera (44) and had 1 more RBI than Cabrera for all of 2013 (Davis hasd 138 while Cabrera 137). To me, a healthy Cabrera simply would have won the triple crown in 2013, where as the injured Cabrera clearly did not.
  4. Yea sorry, I didn't get that Monday morning e-mail that the forum was now going be grading posters on grammar, spelling and proper use of adjectives too.....
  5. The next two off seasons might be a real mess and for me the question of "Would you pay 15-20M a year for....Rick Porcello?" has a lot to do with fellow pitchers Scherzer and Price. If Scherzer AND Price both leave due to free agency, then yea, Porcello's price might seem like a good deal. To be honest with you, Dombrowski and the Ilitch family will probably have to have a heart to heart chat about where the team is going and what direction they need to go near the end of this year. I don't think I've ever seen the Tigers have such a dominating starting rotation as the Tigers have now and at what point does management say "heck, let's keep this starting rotation going for the next few seasons even if we have to blow a budget or break some piggy banks" vs. "well, 2014 was fun, time to dump an awesome starter or two to save some money for 2015..."
  6. So does David Price coming on board help or hurt the Tigers chances or interest in resigning Max Scherzer for next year?
  7. Boy, I sure hope the Tigers are going to use David Price out of the bullpen....
  8. AJ's mom and dad! AWESOME!!! And also, I don't think AJ's a racist, I just think he's a major tool. Willis was pitching a good game and AJ just thought he'd try and get into Willis' head that day by pulling something stupid out of his buttocks region and Laird really and properly took exception to his stunt.
  9. FWIW; I vaguely remember an incident where Dontrelle Willis was pitching and it sure looked like Pierzinski shouted the "N" word to Willis from the batters box while walking to first and Gerald Laird literally grabbed Pierzinski around the throat and discussed the matter with him further. I remember that Pierzinski was smiling and just thought it was all really funny while Laird was giving him a piece of his mind.
  10. Did anyone else see the photos of A.J. Pierzynski being cut by Boston this week? I'm pretty sure it happened just like this......
  11. If V-Mart is not healthy the rest of the way, what is the thought here? Trade JD for another bat? Who do you like hitting behind Cabrera without V-Mart and JD; Castellanos, Dirks, Avila, Kinsler or Hunter?
  12. Let me share a bit more of my concern of the bullpen going forward. In addition to questions about Rhondon being able to contribute a lot for 2014 after the 2013 season, I had deep concerns about how durable the bullpen would be even with the addition of Chamberlain. While Chamberlain has been good so far this year, Chamberlain's career high in innings was 2009 with 157.1, then 100 innings in 2008, then 71 in 2010, 28 innings in 2011, 20.2 in 2012, 42 innings in 2013) And this year he is already at 35.2 innings. Chamberlain hasn't been pushed to over 70 innings since 2010.... Al Alburquerque has been fantastic in 2014 too. Here's my concern again, the most amount of innings Al-Al has thrown in the last three years is 49 innings with the Tigers and that was 2013. Right now, Al-Al is at 33 innings. I mention this because the chatter about "the bullpen isn't that bad right now" is not comforting when you think about the trade deadline passing and then seeing if Chamberlain and/or Alburquerque goes on the DL with arm trouble the last month of the season and Nathan is still a hot mess, what then?
  13. My guess? I think Dombrowski is most likely searching for a "middle relief" arm that also might willing to close either in a pinch or if a Tigers trainer injects Nathan with chickenpox first. Think Jesse Crain, Joel Peralta, Tony Sipp or Brad Ziegler instead of someone like Jonathan Papelbon. Although I also wouldn't rule out the Tigers going for another "closer" like Joakim Soria either if they could get him without giving up a lot prospect wise, but, I just think other teams may have more to offer in terms of prospects for Texas if any other team wanted Soria more than the Tigers do. Part of this is really maddening to me also because picking up bullpen pieces in the off season shouldn't be a back breaker. You don't have to worry about giving up a draft pick to sign a middle reliever because no team gives a qualifying offer to a setup guy. Some of the top middle relief arms really didn't sign for excessive amounts of money either (Jesse Crain 1 yr/$3.25M, Joe Smith 3 yrs/$15.75M for instance) and now the Tigers find themselves again looking for Veras 2.0 or Kyle Farnsworth version 8 for 2014 and now they have to either cough up a fair amount of treasure or pay with young blood, or both to get someone where 7-ish months ago, $3-5M could have got the Tigers another decent arm for all of the 2014 season instead.
  14. Respectfully, I do not see how calling DRS "poo" means that I think every stats that shows unusual change is poo too. I think you would even agree that the methodology between trying to figure out a batting average and a DRS is completely different, and that difference greatly effects the reliability of the data each provides. You know that he definition of what a batting average is: the average performance of a batter, expressed as a ratio of a batter's safe hits per official times at bat. More importantly, this definition does not change year to year, and there is very little interpretation needed to figure out what is a hit and what is not. The very definition of DRS relies heavily on a moving goal post called "how many more or fewer successful plays a defensive player will make than league average". Who determines what the percentage of a successful play should be? What exactly is league average anyway? Did I miss that part of the bible that told that Moses come down from mountain with another tablet that set out what "league average" is for fielding? Is "league average" different than last year? How about 5 years ago? Also importantly, how can anyone say what "league average" even is when your 75-ish games into a 162 game season? If a highly regarded injured shortstop comes back from the DL or a young stud SS gets called up, do they change "league average" mid season or just leave it as it is....because I cannot figure out which would be the least worse of the two options to go with. Batting average does not rely on intensive film and computer review of how a hitter would or would not have gotten a hit based on what the “average hitter” would have done as DRS tries to with defensive metrics. It's simply did the hitter get hit or not. And I'm not particularly impressed that the words "computer" and "film" that are used in explaining what DRS is, that somehow make the DRS stat reliable because humans who see the exact same players and plays will rate things differently, and then promptly dump that garbage data into a computer as a way to say, the computer said "a" is better than "b" so it must be reliable. If I put 100 experts in a room and gave them a pen and a piece of paper and asked them to not discuss their answers with anyone else but rate as a percentage defensively how good Jhonny Peralta, Troy Tulowitzki, Andrelton Simmons and J.J. Hardy are, how confident are you that all of the experts would have pretty much the same exact order and pretty much nail the exact same percentage as too how good they are? Now even if I let them discuss it out, do you think they would come to a agreement that would have a similar degree of reliability that calculating a simple batting average does? By way of comparison, how much debate is there right now going on that best hitter for batting average in the major leagues is Troy Tulowitzki at .351 OR that DRS says Jhonny Peralta is the best defensive run saving shortstop in baseball right now?
  15. I'm still scratching my head on that story about Peralta because it makes me want to consider taking some of the defensive metrics (like DRS) and simply toss them in the trash. To me these two statements do not do much to make me feel all warm and fuzzy about DRS; "Peralta has NEVER ranked in the top 15 among shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved." and in the next breath "This year, both metrics agree that he rates very well. (Peralta) is first among shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved....." So for us armchair GM's, saying Peralta was NEVER in the top half of shortstops in defensive runs saved in a 11 year career and, suddenly, 32 year old Peralta in his 12th year of baseball has somehow becomes the #1 shortstop for DRS sort of defies logic to me. Yea, 15 other "better" shortstops could have gotten injured, retired, or have had their own performance drop off, Peralta could simply be having a "career year" with the glove, Jose Oquendo is the only coach in baseball that knows where to position a shortstop prior to a play, whatever. I just suspect it's a combination of all of those factors mentioned above plus the way DRS is calculated is probably pile of poo too.
  16. All the Tigers had to do was offer Peralta a deal similar to what the Cardinals offered and the Tigers probably could have kept Peralta. And that was a 4 year, $53M deal that started with the Cards paying Peralta $15.5M for 2014.... Or, my humble solution, pay Jose Oquendo to come to the Tigers for a fraction of that to tell Romine, Suarez, Worth, Gonzales, or who ever is playing SS today for the Tigers where the hell to stand during the game....
  17. For what it is worth: Justin Verlander's numbers by pitch count. Not that the Tigers would consider something similar for Verlander, but John Smoltz was converted to a reliever after he was coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2001. 2014 [table] [thead][tr][th]Split[/th][th]G[/th][th]PA[/th][th]AB[/th][th]R[/th][th]H[/th][th]HR[/th][th]BB[/th][th]SO[/th][th]SO/W[/th][th]BA[/th][th]OBP[/th][th]SLG[/th][th]OPS[/th][th]BAbip[/th][/tr][/thead] [tr][td]Pitch 1-25[/td][td]15[/td][td]96[/td][td]88[/td][td]6[/td][td]22[/td][td]3[/td][td]7[/td][td]11[/td][td]1.57[/td][td].250[/td][td].302[/td][td].398[/td][td].700[/td][td].253[/td][/tr] [tr][td]Pitch 26-50[/td][td]15[/td][td]88[/td][td]77[/td][td]7[/td][td]17[/td][td]0[/td][td]8[/td][td]12[/td][td]1.50[/td][td].221[/td][td].310[/td][td].299[/td][td].609[/td][td].262[/td][/tr] [tr][td]Pitch 51-75[/td][td]15[/td][td]104[/td][td]89[/td][td]16[/td][td]26[/td][td]2[/td][td]14[/td][td]20[/td][td]1.43[/td][td].292[/td][td].394[/td][td].438[/td][td].832[/td][td].358[/td][/tr] [tr][td]Pitch 76-100[/td][td]15[/td][td]99[/td][td]92[/td][td]17[/td][td]33[/td][td]3[/td][td]6[/td][td]17[/td][td]2.83[/td][td].359[/td][td].398[/td][td].554[/td][td].952[/td][td].417[/td][/tr] [tr][td]Pitch 101+[/td][td]14[/td][td]50[/td][td]42[/td][td]13[/td][td]13[/td][td]0[/td][td]6[/td][td]9[/td][td]1.50[/td][td].310[/td][td].380[/td][td].500[/td][td].880[/td][td].371[/td][/tr] [/table] 2013 [table] [thead][tr][th]Split[/th][th]G[/th][th]PA[/th][th]AB[/th][th]R[/th][th]H[/th][th]HR[/th][th]BB[/th][th]SO[/th][th]SO/W[/th][th]BA[/th][th]OBP[/th][th]SLG[/th][th]OPS[/th][th]BAbip[/th][/tr][/thead] [tr][td]Pitch 1-25[/td][td]34[/td][td]192[/td][td]167[/td][td]14[/td][td]44[/td][td]2[/td][td]21[/td][td]40[/td][td]1.90[/td][td].263[/td][td].339[/td][td].365[/td][td].704[/td][td].326[/td][/tr] [tr][td]Pitch 26-50[/td][td]34[/td][td]212[/td][td]196[/td][td]20[/td][td]51[/td][td]3[/td][td]12[/td][td]51[/td][td]4.25[/td][td].260[/td][td].308[/td][td].367[/td][td].675[/td][td].336[/td][/tr] [tr][td]Pitch 51-75[/td][td]34[/td][td]198[/td][td]171[/td][td]23[/td][td]42[/td][td]3[/td][td]25[/td][td]48[/td][td]1.92[/td][td].246[/td][td].343[/td][td].339[/td][td].683[/td][td].322[/td][/tr] [tr][td]Pitch 76-100[/td][td]33[/td][td]214[/td][td]199[/td][td]25[/td][td]52[/td][td]7[/td][td]14[/td][td]49[/td][td]3.50[/td][td].261[/td][td].313[/td][td].432[/td][td].745[/td][td].315[/td][/tr] [tr][td]Pitch 101+[/td][td]30[/td][td]109[/td][td]105[/td][td]10[/td][td]23[/td][td]4[/td][td]3[/td][td]29[/td][td]9.67[/td][td].219[/td][td].241[/td][td].362[/td][td].603[/td][td].264[/td][/tr] [/table] Career [table] [thead][tr][th]I[/th][th]Split[/th][th]G[/th][th]PA[/th][th]AB[/th][th]R[/th][th]H[/th][th]HR[/th][th]BB[/th][th]SO[/th][th]SO/W[/th][th]BA[/th][th]OBP[/th][th]SLG[/th][th]OPS[/th][th]BAbip[/th][/tr][/thead] [tr][td][/td][td]Pitch 1-25[/td][td]281[/td][td]1643[/td][td]1475[/td][td]131[/td][td]351[/td][td]42[/td][td]139[/td][td]361[/td][td]2.60[/td][td].238[/td][td].306[/td][td].376[/td][td].682[/td][td].285[/td][/tr] [tr][td][/td][td]Pitch 26-50[/td][td]281[/td][td]1761[/td][td]1592[/td][td]147[/td][td]351[/td][td]28[/td][td]132[/td][td]406[/td][td]3.08[/td][td].220[/td][td].287[/td][td].329[/td][td].617[/td][td].277[/td][/tr] [tr][td][/td][td]Pitch 51-75[/td][td]281[/td][td]1766[/td][td]1605[/td][td]179[/td][td]379[/td][td]36[/td][td]129[/td][td]398[/td][td]3.09[/td][td].236[/td][td].297[/td][td].355[/td][td].652[/td][td].290[/td][/tr] [tr][td][/td][td]Pitch 76-100[/td][td]276[/td][td]1701[/td][td]1558[/td][td]185[/td][td]398[/td][td]49[/td][td]119[/td][td]359[/td][td]3.02[/td][td].255[/td][td].312[/td][td].406[/td][td].718[/td][td].302[/td][/tr] [tr][td][/td][td]Pitch 101+[/td][td]233[/td][td]899[/td][td]816[/td][td]87[/td][td]197[/td][td]9[/td][td]67[/td][td]216[/td][td]3.22[/td][td].241[/td][td].305[/td][td].341[/td][td].646[/td][td].317[/td][/tr] [/table]
  18. For what it is worth, I think a large part of it is just a lack of juicy subject material to talk about so far this year. No real blockbuster trades or free agent signings that makes a common fan jump out of their seats and say "WOW! I have to write a post about this!!!”. The Tigers going into 2014 were basically a set team and in this last off season Dombrowski settled the 1B/3B/2B/closer situations fairly quickly which pretty much left us with the task of debating about who will take Dirks and Iglesias' place and who will round out the bullpen in a free agent market that was pretty weak to start with- not really front page news type stuff...
  19. Drew hasn't been Troy Tulowitz the last few years and you can make a case for 2014 Drew having numbers closer to say, Danny Worth, than the numbers 2008 Stephen Drew put up going forward. This and the fact that I have no idea if Drew is even MLB ready for a game yet (would he need some AB's in the minors?) sort of complicates things too. Would Drew be and improvement? Probably,....but would he be a $5-$8M improvement over Romine or Worth? Hard for me to say "yes". To me the whole Drew question reminds me of a bad Ebay auction, how much the Tigers would be willing to pay for Drew largely depends on how badly the other bidders want him for their team instead. With Jose Iglesias scheduled to come back for 2015, I doubt the Tigers would even consider a multi year deal unless they had some strange plan to move Nick Castellanos to the outfield and put Iglesias at 3B for 2015 and my hunch is that Boras is looking for offers that have the word "multi-year" in them. Are the Tigers interested? Probably. Interested to give Drew a multi-year deal? Probably not. Will any other team offer a multi year deal? We'll see....
  20. Thanks for mentioning Billy Butler, if the Royals decline his $12.5M team option for 2015, a then 28 year old Butler will be available as a DH free agent too...
  21. There are other considerations in this "keep Martinez for 2015" too. I'm pretty sure that the Tigers were thinking of having Hunter ($14M for 2014) and Martinez ($12M for 2014) money off the books for 2015 and it's starting to look like the Tigers might be saving a chunk more if Scherzer ( $15.525M for 2014) finds another team to his liking for 2015 as well. I think the Tigers will look at the best way to improve the team with the money vs. saying we may be losing a DH, so we must sign another DH or pay to keep the current DH. I mention this because the Tigers might want to look at other (non-DH) player options for the money. Chase Headley will be a free agent at the end of this year. Another example may be Troy Tulowitzki, who goes from making $10M in 2013 to $16M in 2014 to $20M in 2015 and the Rockies might see some advantage in shipping Tulo's salary for prospects to a team that can afford him. Giancarlo Stanton will be a free agent after the 2016 season is over, so the Marlins might make him available sooner than watch him walk. Victor Martinez is great, but he's basically a full time DH now and his $12-$14M per year might go a long way to improving the team in better ways for the future by the Tigers going a different way for 2015....
  22. +1 I want to see how 35 year old V-Mart survives this full season and the playoffs first before the Tigers think about extending anyone right now. The Tigers certainly could make V-Mart a 1 year qualified offer and see if any other team wants to go more than 1 year, $13-$14M and lose a draft pick to sign V-Mart instead... Also folks, we are less than 1/6th of the way through the 2014 season so far. Injuries and slumps and even just the grind of the season can take a toll on a player so let's wait to see how the whole season goes and not hand out awards or new contracts based on early returns. I mean Don Kelly right now has a OPS of .763 and Kinlser has .748 and Cabrera is at .734 and of those three players, only Don Kelly can be a free agent after the 2015 season!
  23. +1 That is what bugs me the most. Going into the off season from last year, I thought "well, a bit more of an improvement to the bullpen and the Tigers would be more than ready for another run in 2014..." Um, yea... so not so much of an improvement to me and right now I am not sure how "for real" Reed is or if Krol, Chamberlain or Coke can/will be of major assistance if anything else goes wrong out of the pen. I keep dreading to see a headline soon that reads: "Al Alburquerque to the DL, Tigers unsure of return".
  24. +1 Too add to this, Friday, April 4, when Joba Chamberlain was getting kicked around it had a lot to do with his fastballs getting hit (HARD). MLB had his top was at 94 mph and it was funny because he threw 7 fasballs out of 11 pitches to the first 5 hitters he faced (got 1K but gave up 3 singles and a triple to the other 4 hitters) and then after a coaching visit, Chamberlain retired the next two batters on 9 pitches and only threw a single 93 mph fastball to retire the next two hitters on sliders....
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