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Everything posted by STLTiger69

  1. The key to being a good manager is keeping the people who hate me away from those who are still undecided. -Casey Stengel
  2. Agreed, but conversely, I think we will all agree that so long as the next manager gets the Tigers winning again, we probably will not really care who that manager turns out to be. If the Tigers hired Joseph Stalin and he got the Tigers to a world series victory in 2016, I might be tempted to overlook Stalin's politics and authoritarian management style too... And with that being said, I really hope the Tigers would give Kate Upton some serious consideration...
  3. I missed seeing any video of Al Avila discussing the Tigers managerial situation, but I imagine it looked a lot like this...
  4. I'm ok with Gardenhire and frankly, the Tigers could do a lot worse than him. Ozzie Guillen is probably still thinking he's ready to manage again and I'm sure Tiger fans would be pretty excited to see if Jim Leyland would want another tour as the Tigers manager too. On the managers I wouldn't mind wearing the english D, I doubt Tony La Russa would want to manage again, Joe Madden isn't leaving the Cubs and Mike Scioscia is seeing some strangeness from the Angels front office, so 1) I'm not sure if Scioscia wants to leave anyway and 2) I'm wondering if the Tigers would want him if he was to suddenly become available. Also I'd be fine with Terry Francona too, but again, I doubt he'd be leaving Cleveland (he's signed through 2018) so....
  5. I think Avila and his agent will have a heart to heart talk at the end of this season to figure out the next step. IF either the Tigers or another team don't do something crazy and say an offer him a 2-3 year deal with $8M-$18M, Avila needs to have a plan B. My guess is plan B would be to look for the words "starter" or "primary" catcher when it comes to trying to get a one year deal with another team to try and rebuild some value for 2017 and beyond. Being known as a really good backup catcher doesn't really pay much and if Avila signs a one year pillow contract to try and establish his value it has to be with the understanding that he will get a significant amount of playing time for 2016 (and something I would assume the Tigers would be unwilling to offer). If Avila signs as a backup catcher either with the Tigers or another team, he will have a hard time convincing other teams in 2017 that he's ready to be a fulltime catcher again and paid like one too. Gerald Laird made over $14M TOTAL for his 12 years in the major leagues. So far Avila has made just under $14M TOTAL in his 6 years of major league experience. I have a feeling that no matter what Avila's playing, coaching or managing options are down the road, he will be just fine....
  6. I don't know what to make of it with Marte either but what I've seen, the words "God given defensive standout talent" and Marte's name would likely never be associated together, regardless if it was in the infield or the outfield. And I think the Tigers may have already figured that if it's not Moya or Collins or another minor league outfielder, the Tigers would either bottom feed for a non-roster invitee for spring training 2016 or go out and pay real money for a free agent outfielder instead of trying to remold Matre into something he may never be as an outfielder. Maybe this is sort of a Avisail Garcia thing where if Marte does a good enough job filling in that another team might say "Marte is out future!" and want to actually give the Tigers something decent because they see Marte at 1B for their team making a lot of sense where it doesn't for the Tigers right now. I don't know.
  7. Respectfully, I think with the Tigers only 4 1/2 games out of a wild card spot, it makes sense to play someone (Marte) at 1B with a .271 BA and .881 OPS for 2015 over Avila hitting just .178 BA with a .586 OPS. And one of the reasons why the Tigers aren't "in contention" this year is,...ironically,... because of Alex Avila's poor hitting. If 2011 Alex Avila was here to save the 2015 season with Miggy's injury and V-Mart's inconsistent bat, I think we both know Avila would be starting everyday catcher hands down. Instead, the real 2015 Avila has been replaced as the starting catcher and now is relegated to being a defensive replacement for Marte at 1B. EDIT: And also, what would the Tigers be trying to find out about Marte by giving him "extended playing time" anyway? That Marte is better than Cabrera? That Marte is better than Krauss? That Avila is worse than both McCann and Marte? It would be one thing if the Tigers were playing Marte at 3B or giving him a outfielders glove and sticking him in LF to see what happens with an eye on 2016, but so far Marte has played 1 game at 3B (all 5 innings), 2 at DH and 16 at 1B. EDIT #2: Ok, I'll agree with you that your correct that perhaps giving "extended playing time" to McCann is a try out for full time 2016 duty. But it certainly does look like between Avila's poor hitting and McCann's all around good play, McCann has forced the Tigers to hand him the starting catcher position this year instead of 2016 and I don't think that will change tomorrow or for 2016 either.
  8. Honestly, not only has Avila lost his starting catching job to McCann. With Cabrera's injury opening first base for a time, Avila managed to lost his "starting" 1B job to Jefry Marte too. When minor leaguers take two "starting" roles from a MLB player in the same year, I think that says volumes about how "valuable" that MLB player really is...
  9. FWIW: Davis and Avila are costing the Tigers at a combined $10.4M for 2015. That's probably about half the money the Tigers need to get Cespedes back for 2016. Even if the Tigers cannot get Cespedes back, Fowler is making $9.5M now going into his free agency at the end of this year. I know we argue all the time about "the Tigers need a better bench" but it always struck me that if you have 8 good to great position players in the field, you really don't need to have a great bench to rely upon. I'd much rather the Tigers spend a majority of the "bench money" on a front line player who would literally play every at bat, every day and see players like Holaday be backup catcher and someone like Quintin Berry 2.0 play 4th outfielder than see the Tigers spend $10M for a so-so LF Outfielder, $5M to resign Davis and $6M to re-sign Avila,....ick. My sense is that there will be some disagreement however...lol.
  10. I know what your trying to say, but I think it needs to be said more accurately. "The earliest contracts to end are Kinsler and Sanchez in 2018". Kinsler and Sanchez can be off the books after the 2017 season is over with a buyout for their 2018 options. 2017 is only two year away, not three. What your saying can be confusing because it might sound like you mean that the Tigers are stuck with $28M in luxury tax and $28M payroll for the 2018 season. When in fact a $10M payout at the end of the 2017 season would clear out salary and luxury tax space for the 2018 season. So Sanchez and Kinsler's would be gone two years after the Tigers go on a buying binge for the 2016 season and one year after the salary limit likely goes up likely another $10M in 2017. And remember, after the 2018 season, V-Mart's $18M contract is up and in 2019 if Justin Verlander isn't in the top 5 for Cy Young voting in 2019, the Tigers save $22M for the 2020 season too off of Verlander. Secondly, while there is some truth in your assertion that "As a practical matter the Tigers do no heavily backload contracts", I would argue that the Tigers have never really been in this circumstance before and I would expect the Tigers to adapt to the situation. In the past, the Tigers either needed a free agent player or they didn't. They could either afford a player or they could not. If Papa Illitch likes Prince Fielder, we get Price Fielder- no need to backload that contract right? Now the trick will be to re-tool NOW with a larger portion of the money to be paid LATER. IF the Tigers want to re-tool (and even if the re-tooling is less than in a "Papa Illitch has opened the bank vault" kind of way, say spending only $50-$60M say,...) The Tigers may look into ways to get free agents now at a lower cost today and pay them a much higher rate later in their contracts in a way they didn't consider doing much of previously. For instance: If Cespedes would like to be a Tiger for 5 years at $100M and you wanted to make it work with the budget, why not $15M for 2016 and $15M for 2017, $20M for 2018 and $25M for 2019 and $25M for 2020? Could the Tigers pay Cespedes more for 2018 when Kinsler and Sanzchez are gone after the 2017 season is over? What about when V-Mart leaves after the 2018 season is over too? How about after the Verlander isn't in the top 5 Cy Young after 2019? We'll see how things pan out. You might be right, I might be right, or we could both be wrong somehow. Time will tell.
  11. It's the AVERAGE of the players salary. Max Sherzer's average salary is about $30M per year and Russell Martin's average is $16.2M. If your worried about the luxury tax, There's 46.2M for the luxury tax and $24M of actual salary for the first years of their contracts. AND, the luxury tax ceiling my understanding is supposed to go UP in 2017. So if you have room for Martin and Scherzer under the luxury tax now, you'll still have it for 2017 and beyond. Lastly, if the Tigers do go over the tax cap for the first time in 2016, it's a 17.5% of the amount over the tax. So if the Tigers totally nuts and spend say $70M on free agents and go over the luxury tax by say $20M dollars, the tax the Tigers have to pay is $3.5M dollars for 2016. Wow...right? If you want some mind blowing perspective, the Steinbrenner family that owns the Yankees is worth 3.8 BILLION dollars. The Illitch family is worth 5.2 BILLION. If Papa Illitch's last wish is a higher salary for the Tigers to go for it in 2016, he has the money to do it and writing a check for a few million to the commisioner's office is not going to stop him....
  12. Let me help just a bit. For 2016: The back up catcher is Bryan Holiday. Your 4th outfielder is either Austin Jackson really cheap or who ever wins the 4th spot out of spring training. Call Quintin Berry again or dig up Brandon Inge,...I don't care. "Fix the bullpen" is really dependent on the chum of bullpen arms that will be available. There is not a vast sea of hope when I look over the bullpen free agents for 2016, so I doubt spending more than $5-$6M let alone $10M-ish would solve every problem the Tigers might encounter out of the bullpen for 2016 either.. Fix the starting rotation? Seem like the likely three are. Sanchez Verlander Norris If Boyd can actually nail down a starting role for the rest of 2015, then add Boyd to the above list and let Farmer, Greene, or Ryan figure out who wants the 5th spot in the rotation- if the Tigers don't want to go for a #1 ace free agent instead. Worst case is that the Tigers bottom feed for a 5th starter during free agency for 2016 too. That leaves the Tigers money in play to go get a #1 ace pitcher and very possibly Cespedes back too. I've mentioned signing players to "back loaded contracts" to try and even the money out for the next several years until the Tigers get out of other contracts. I understand for luxury tax reasons, players contracts are counted using the average annual value instead of what their contract says. But, think about this for a second. Did anyone look at Max Scherzer's contract? Can you say back loaded? 2015 $17,142,000 2016 $22,143,000 2017 $22,143,000 2018 $22,143,000 2019 $42,143,000 2020 $42,143,000 2021 $42,143,000 How about Russell Martin? 2015 $7,000,000 2016 $15,000,000 2017 $20,000,000 2018 $20,000,000 2019 $20,000,000 Why do I care about the Tigers possibly back loading a free agents contract for 2016? Well, while the Tigers might only have $47-48M to spend for 2016. HOWEVER, two teams paid a total of ONLY $24M for the services of Scherzer and Martin for 2015 as an example,....of course in 2018 those teams will be paying Scherzer and Martin a total of over $62M, but you get the idea. In 2018 and 2019, the Tigers will have some decisions to make about who to extend and who to not pick up AND the luxury tax cap will be increasing for the 2017 season too. It was $178M in 2012 and 2013, $189M in 2014-2016, if it increases as much as it did for between 2013-2014, then the new salary cap might be around $200M instead. PS: The payroll will not be the same as 2014 either. I'm reasonably sure Papa Illitch will open his wallet to try and get any advantage he can over teams like the Royals and Twins and if spending his money is part of the solution, he'll do it.
  13. It's weird being a Tiger's fan and not really feeling the need to spend lots of money by signing a closer for $10M per year and then have to trade for a set up man with closing experience that costs $7M - just in case. I wonder what the Tigers will do with that extra $17M for 2016? There's still lots of 2015 to play out and things can change, but Wilson in the 9th and Rondon in the 8th seems ok so far...
  14. I'm not trying to start a fight, but I have to disagree with you. The Tigers are going to have around $50M-$60M to spend after the season is over and the Tigers salary for 2015 was $172M, which was $17M UNDER the luxury tax of $189M. Cott's baseball has the Tigers with a salary of $105.8M (if my math is correct-lol) and the following players eligible for arbitration: JD Martinez (Arb 2) Alburquerque (Arb 3) Iglesias (Arb 1) Romine (Arb 1) The only player that is due for a pay raise that I'd be worried about is JD Martinez, but he's coming from a $3M salary for 2015. Also, you need to look a little bit further down the road to understand what other contracts are coming off the Tiger's payroll the next few years too. After the 2017 season is over, the Tigers can pick up Sanchez's 2018 option for $16M or decline it with a $5M payment. Ian Kinsler, same thing, the Tigers can pick up his $12M option for 2018 or decline it for $5M. Also V-Mart's contract expires at the end of the 2018 season for a savings of $18M going into 2019. So for 2018, if the Tigers don't want Sanchez and Kinsler, the Tigers pay $10M to make them go away and save and additional $18M and for 2019- V-Mart and his $18M per year contact are done too. Lastly, keep in mind that free agents are often are willing to sign deals that are "back load" money later in the contract years. Free agents like, say, Cespedes for instance, would get an average of $20M per year for their contract, but say with a 4 year deal, 2016 would pay only $12M while year 2020 would pay $28M for instance. I truely believe the Tigers will walk out of the winter meetings with at least one free agent "ace" pitcher coming to Detroit and one free agent outfielder likely named Cespedes coming back to Detroit for 2016 as well. -But, we'll see...
  15. This is one reason why I was glad to see the Tigers ditch a chance to get a wild card birth in order to restructure the team for the future. Think about this, the Tigers got Daniel Norris, a 22 year old lefthander who's already pitching at the major league level (not some mythical draft compensation pick if Price left the Tigers to sign elsewhere...). Norris is only making $508,700 in salary for all of 2015. Norris is not even eligible for arbitration until the 2018 season and cannot leave the Tigers as a free agent until the 2020 season is over. And to poke the Blue Jays even harder, at the conclusion of the 2015 season, the Tigers are still able to bid on David Price as a free agent without fear of losing a draft pick to the Blue Jays. And remember, the Jays also gave up Matt Boyd and Jairo Labourt in addition to Norris for Price for a two-ish month rental.
  16. I'm not disagreeing with you, but just keep an open mind about it if the right trade involving Kinsler comes along. Infante had a his best OPS year ever (at .795) with the Tigers in 2013 at age 31. The Tigers didn't want to extend his contract and Infante went to KC where he had an OPS of .632 for 2014 and .567 so far for 2015. And don't feel bad for KC, they only owe Infante $15.75M total for the 2016 and 2017 seasons plus a $2M buyout of 2018. Kinsler is playing pretty solid defense and has been good with the Tigers so far (OPS .727 in 2014 and .755 in 2015 so far) and he's 33 years old. The problem is Kinsler is owed another $25M total for $2016 and 2017 AND a $5M buyout for 2018. Or, basically, $30M to be done with Kinsler by the start of the 2018 season. Don't get me wrong, if Kinsler is still doing awesome when he's 35 for the 2017 season maybe paying him an additional $12M to play in 2018 (instead of the $5M buy out) would be a fantastic deal for the Tigers. But my sense is that Kinsler could start to tank pretty quickly and if the Tigers can get a decent player or two for Kinsler AND get salary relief for the next few years, maybe Dixon Machado or whoever might be a less skilled but a reasonable alternative to keeping a declining Kinsler at 2B.... Again, no need to "dump" Kinsler, if the right deal isn't on the table, the Tigers simply keep Kinsler. But, the Royals couldn't find any takers for Infante and his $17M-ish contract after a terrible 2015 and I'd hate to see what the market might be for Kinsler and his $30M-ish contract if he starts to nosedive too.
  17. I'm sorry I've been away for a while, what did the Tigers have to give up to get Bill Madlock?
  18. I sort of agree with you, but you have to understand that there is nothing stopping the Tigers from going out and re-signing players like Price, Cespedes and Soria after the season is over. This isn't the Tigers having a fire sale and saying "We'll be back in 5 years with a better team...". This is the Tigers saying,...."wait till next year". There is something very exciting to me about Dombrowski (if he stays as the Tigers GM) headed to the winter meetings with maybe $40-$60M for 2016 to spend on free agents and a pocket full of shiny new prospects that he can deal to re-arm the Tigers for 2016...
  19. If Cespedes is not going to sign a contract extension with Tigers after the 2015 season, probably yes.
  20. OR the Padres are going about it all the wrong way,...... "The Padres are trying to attach the contract of second baseman Jedd Gyorko as they discuss trades for their starting pitchers, tweets Jon Morosi of FOX Sports. Gyorko is owed more than $33MM through 2019, and has hit .214/.282/.336 since 2014".
  21. Will the league office allow a trade of "players to be named later" for "players to be named later" from another team?
  22. Can anyone see if Wilmer Flores is crying again?
  23. I sort of think Dombrowski really would like to keep Cespedes,...so,...the price is pretty high. If no team meets the high asking price, shucks, I guess the Tigers get to keep Cespedes for the rest of the season...(and maybe get to work on a contract extension too...)
  24. Sorry if this comes of snarky- not my intent. Honestly though, how many teams who are trying to get into the playoffs are saying, "Gosh, we need a closer for the stretch run into the playoffs,...but....we just don't want to spend and extra $2-3M to do that! Maybe we could find another team that would eat that $2-3M for a rental player's salary of a few months and we will give that team a better prospect in return!" The whole idea of getting a "rental" player is to not mortgage the teams future for a player who may only stick around a few months to get you into the playoffs. Not to get a rental player super-dooper cheap or cost free by giving away better prospects in return.
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