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STLTiger69

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Everything posted by STLTiger69

  1. For instance, the Tigers and Verlander/Cabrera can agree to a new "contract extension" term for slightly more money/years but defer a portion of the total like the Chris Davis deal. As an example, the Tigers can agree to pick up the vesting options in exchange for deferring money off of the total contract. "Chris Davis, and the price tag was staggering given his limited market: $161 million over seven years. Except, they aren’t really paying him $161 million over the next seven years; as part of the deal, the Orioles have deferred about a quarter of the contract, pushing $6 million per year of his annual salary into the years after the contract has expired, and pushing some of it way into the future. Under the terms of this deal, Baltimore will now be sending Davis checks for the next 22 years, with the $42 million in deferred money being paid out from 2023 through 2037." http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-value-of-deferred-money-in-the-chris-davis-deal/
  2. Just for fun, what would it take for JV and/or Cabrera to restructure their contract?
  3. Let me respectfully dissent. 1) Teams generally get a bump in revenue for a playoff run, 20% to almost 30% higher. If the Tigers want to generate more profit, they can cut the payroll or perhaps, just get into the playoffs. Long story short, it pays off to make in the playoffs. On average, about $20-$30 million worth. http://thefieldsofgreen.com/2014/10/02/how-much-value-does-a-postseason-appearance-hold-for-mlb-franchises/ So to me, if the Tigers end up in the playoffs for 2017, the money problem seen right now might literally fix itself. 2) The Tigers have exclusive negotiating rights to JD from now through the end of the 2017 season. The Tigers can try and work out a team friendly deal with him now (or during spring training or the season), and if that does not fit well with the Tigers, the Tigers can trade deadline deal him for more than just a draft pick. But suppose JD wants a 8 year deal for $120M. Can't do that right? What if JD agrees to have the deal back loaded, so for the sake of argument, JD's 2018 his salary is only $10M and his 2019 salary would be $12M but for 2025 (your reading that year right) his salary for that season would be $28M and for 2026, his salary would be $30M. I realize for luxury tax, he would have a value of $20M per year, but still, would you be ok with the Tigers keeping JD on a team friendly contract for another couple of years? 3) One sure way to kill the hopes of getting to the playoffs is to dump players for prospects that may (or may not) be able to be productive major league players in the near future. If you dump KRod, you lose a guy coming off 44 saves for 2016. Sure, you can replace KRod with one of the Wilson's, let Rondon see if he's worth 30-40 saves or sign a cheap stopgap measure like Rodney or Alburquerque and see if you can get another good year from them in 2017 too. Same thing with Maybin, Maybin had one of his best years ever in the majors with a .801 OPS and the Tigers could "save" $8M by paying Maybin $1M and then do what? Spend $2M to sign Peter Bourjos (who's greatest .765 OPS season was in 2011) so the Tigers are saving a net of what $6M? I mention this because if Maybin has another monster year, maybe Maybin is the kind of player the Tigers might consider offering him a contract extension too. And again, if it was a team friendly contract, why not try? To me, if you trade or try and cut salary right now, 90-95% chance to me you just ended the 2017 playoff run before the 2017 season even starts. Why would the Tigers want another lousy $20-$30 million in revenue from a playoff run? Also, keep in mind that prospects may not pan out or take a long time to actually show their worth. And there is a real chance that the prospects the Tigers would get for JD or Maybin may not even work out for the Tigers either. With JD, Maybin and KRod, at least there is a track record. With prospects, you never know. So to that point, not only could the Tigers be flushing the 2017 season away with a sell off, they could also be flushing away 2018, 2019 and more if some of the prospects don't step up as hoped. I agree with you that, there is a risk in having players walk as free agents after 2017 when the Tigers either going to the playoffs or melting down just after the trade deadline and not making the playoffs. But you have to balance those risks with the possibility that you cannot trade 2-3 busted prospects to get JD back from another team in a couple of years from now either. Again, I respect your opinion and reasonable minds will disagree too. I just wanted to present a counter argument.
  4. Not to pound the "trade deadline mini fire sale of 2017" idea into the ground but a perfect trade candidate might be a healthy Jordan Zimmerman. Give Zimmerman 2/3rds of the 2017 season to show that he's healthy and pitching closer to his norm and perhaps if the Tigers are out of it before the trade deadline, a team that has payroll flexibility and might be chasing a wildcard spot (Yankees anyone?) might see Zimmerman as the perfect short term and longer term solution to their pitching rotation needs- and willing to compensate the Tigers appropriately too... Think about this for a second, if you move Zimmermann and Upton at the trade deadline in 2017, the Tigers would save $6M of Zimmerman's remaining contract and a little more than $7M from Upton on the luxury tax and salary payout for the 2017 eason and clear off over $46 million dollars of payroll for 2018 season... Just something to think about eh? EDIT: Zimmerman does have a no trade clause,....so,....maybe, maybe not....
  5. Honestly, I think the Tigers can win the division or at least a wildcard spot for 2017 right now with what they have. I mentioned a sort of fire sale at the trade deadline if the Tigers are not in it for the 2017 season and I still think that. IF the Tigers get a great trade offer for a player now, I could see the Tigers pulling the trigger to get ready for 2017 and beyond.. But I just don't think the Tigers will go all penny pinching mode and toss the 2017 season away for prospects right now that might help in 1-3 years when we can probably get those same kinds of prospects in trades at the 2017 trade deadline too if things don't work out. But we will see.......
  6. I read this that Gose is a tool and his trade value as a tool while at AA and AAA is non-existent. So the Tigers will give him every opportunity to show other major league teams that Gose is really a major league player worthy of a decent return in a trade instead....
  7. +! I think the motivating factor for 2015 was two things. First Dombrowski nearing the trade deadline realized that the Tigers were likely not going to make the playoffs and that the season was "lost". And secondly that the majority of the players the Tigers were going to trade were simply players the Tigers were likely going to lose to free agency at the end of 2015 season and the Tigers would have very little interest in resigning anyway. So why carry their two months of added player salary and perhaps not get anything for them in return when they left (Cespedes specifically, but I couldn't see the Tigers giving Soria a qualified offer to get a draft pick if Soria signed somewhere else either...).
  8. I think MLB owners now understand that they will have to overpay and likely provide extra years to keep or entice elite top free agents to sign with their ballclub. If your team isn't willing to overpay the Pujols, Cabrera, Verlander, Scherzer or Greinkes of the world,,..don't be surprised when they leave for some other team that will....
  9. I got mixed feelings about this. Cabrera and Verlander are core players. I think JD learned a lot from Cabrera's approach and I think any prospects the Tigers get back can learn a lot from Cabrera too. Ditto Verlander, I think Verlander has helped Fulmer become a better pitcher, and I think keeping Verlander will help the young starting pitching prospects to have a den father to look up too. Also I think it would be easier for a fan base to embrace a retooling if non-core players are traded away rather than fan favorites like Cabrera and/or Verlander. I agree with you that money wise, sure Cabrera, Verlander, Zimmerman and V-Mart should be a priority to dump, it's just my gut tells me that for the organization and for the young players, Cabrera and Verlander have a intrinsic value that is harder to take into account.
  10. Also, to add more to my thought, in a trade deadline fire sale, the Tigers would save about 1/3 of the players salary for the 2017 season and also save money under the luxury tax. IF the Tigers traded the following players at the 2017 trade deadline and did NOT have to eat any salary to move them, here is the dollar savings for the 2017 season (by my rough and incredibly bad math skills): Upton $7M+ Maybin $3M K-Rod $2M Kinsler $3M+ JD $3M+ ______________ $18M VMart $6M Verlander $9M+ _______________________ $15M Sanchez $5.5M ish Pilfrey $2.3M ish Lowe $1.8M ________________ $9.6M
  11. Shhh.... I'm working on my Tigers 2016 offseason and 2017 manefesto right now. But the general thing is: 1) Keep the team together and go for it for 2017,.....at least until the trade deadline! The Tigers gave Sanchez and Pilfrey 48 starts in the rotation in 2016. Giving a vast majority of those starts to players like Fulmer, Norris, Boyd and hopefully a healthy Zimmermann should make the Tigers more than the 8 games better they finished behind first place for 2016. 2) Don't just "downgrade", think completely turn over large parts of the roster at the trade deadline if the 2017 team isn't going all the way to the playoffs. PULL THE PLUG! Move as many Tigers as you can for the best prospects the Tigers can get and start thinking playoffs again for 2019-2020 instead. If the Tigers are out of it on August 1st at 4pm 2017 (the trade deadline), when 6pm rolls around that evening, you'll see a whole new Tiger outfield take the field and it will very much suck. Collins in CF, Moya in RF and Jones/Romine in LF. If the Tigers sell for 2017 trade deadline, I want them to play as many "prospects" as they want for the remaining two months of the lost season, and honestly, suck it up so bad that they actually get higher up in the MLB draft ranking too. Why just suck a little when there are benefits to being totally suckage. Take the survivors of the great Tigers 2017 purge, the nice new shiny prospects the Tigers got in return from the trades and the high draft pick the tigers would get and pour them into a 2018 rebuilding season. Let the prospects suck and get better during the 2018 season and start looking at spending some money again filling in gaps through free agency for the 2019 and 2020 seasons. Players I would trade at the 2017 deadline if the Tigers are out of it: Upton Maybin K-Rod Kinsler (He's cheap so I might want to keep him, but if I got a good enough offer...) JD (if he's not a "team friendly" contract kind of guy for the Tigers past 2017 then......BYE!!) V-Mart Verlander (I'd be inclined to keep him, but again, if it's the right deadline offer....) (EDIT: I believe V-Mart and Verlander have 10 and 5 rights to veto a trade...) And if they have any value at the 2017 trade deadline, count on these names being traded; Sanchez Pilfrey Lowe My 2 cents anyway...
  12. +1 EXACTLY my point on all levels. To me for 2017, Maybin in CF for the Tigers is just not a problem that needs fixing right now....So the Tigers save $8 million but how much would even a so-so replacement cost from outside the organization? OPS wise for 2016, Maybin was above other CF players like Ian Desmond, Denard Span, Lorenzo Cain, Andrew McCutchen, Andrew Jones, and Jacoby Ellsberry. Even if Maybin "regresses" back to a middle of the pack of these outfielders OPS wise, for $9M for just 2017, I'm totally ok with Maybin in CF.
  13. A lot of the run prevention teams also happened to have really great pitching too. It's hard to defend against the home run or a pitcher that walks a lot of people before they give up a home run.
  14. So, for the sake of argument, if the Tigers do buy out Maybin's option and save a lousy $8M. My question is which Tiger (or Tigers) on the roster is going play centerfield and help get the Tigers back into the playoffs for 2017? Moya, Collins, Gose or Jones?
  15. The towels in the showers will feature a lower thread count for 2017......
  16. I'll be honest, I like Puig's talent, but hate his personality and baggage. To me he's the Manny Ramírez of the 2010's. The Dodgers put up with his antics when he's hitting .290-.300 but find him much more expendable when he's hitting only .255-.265.
  17. For me personally, I honestly don't get the idea of trading JD for a speed guy who has a somewhat improved defense but a worse bat. In terms of team speed, the Tigers whole team is more like Rosie O'Donnell and less like Scarlett Johansson. And trading JD for a "speed guy" fixes only 1/9 of the problem and more importantly, JD isn't the problem that needs to be fixed. If you want to find a SS or CF that is speedy and will not cost the Tigers JD's bat- great, I can probably get behind that. If you can't hit for average and/or power, you might as well be able to steal a couple of bases instead. But the Tigers HAD Rajai Davis who this year stole 43 bases (4th largest total in the ML's by the way) and played 80 games in CF for Cleveland this year and I'm not sure the Tigers were the right team to use Davis' speed talents anyway. Simply put, the Tigers scoring philosophy has to be adjusted to accept the fact that a base runner might get thrown out trying to steal second with Miggy at the plate to end the inning or else put the speed guys at the bottom of the lineup and leave it at that. Lumber at the top and middle of the lineup, play for a run at the bottom of the lineup using speed would be my thinking on the subject. Unless the Tigers are going to get an amazing haul for him, just keep JD and let his HR's and RBI's speak for him in the lineup instead for 2017 is my thought.... Cameron Maybin stole 40 bases in 2011 and 45 in 2012 and just 23 in 2016. Maybin is 29 years old now. Davis is currently 35 years old.... FWIW, just unchain Maybin and put him at the bottom of the lineup. If he get's tossed trying to steal 2nd base to end an inning with McCann or Iglesias batting- I don't really mind as much....
  18. +1 And, JD might give a bit of a home town discount too for the Tigers as well. To me, JD is the kind of player you want to trade for, not trade away. Besides, if you want to improve team speed, Quintin Berry was released by the Blue Jays on September 6th.....
  19. Has anybody else noticed the irony that in the last two days, Porcello, Scherzer and Price have all taken a loss in the best three out of five elimination playoff games for their "new" respective clubs...?
  20. +1 agree with you that the Tigers should consider signing JD now if they have any serious plans of keeping him beyond 2017. But I'm trying to figure out if I was the Tigers GM how to go about this. If you wanted to extend JD, you basically have to budget thinking Upton will stay for 2018 and beyond,....even if he doesn't. Upton controls the strings on his own departure unless the Tigers use the short list of 10 teams they can trade him too. The other question I wonder about is, does anyone really want Maybin beyond 2017 or as a GM, do you just say something like; "Maybin was good in 2016, let's see if he can do it again in 2017 and if he does, then the Tigers will just bid for him as a free agent if we need him that bad for 2018 and beyond?" Also there is a part of me from the Dr. Evil school of General Managing that thinks if the Tigers are not in contention for the post season come the trade deadline 2017, the Tigers should trade Upton and I would talk loudly to Mr. Bigglesworth in front of Upton's locker as Upton is packing to remember that the Tigers can and do spend GENEROUSLY on free agents especially when the player declines their contractual option to stay with a new team....wink.... wink.....(Teams are not supposed to interfering with a player's contractual status like this,...I know!). It would suck not to be in contention for 2017 playoffs and have to trade Upton for a good, young prospect or two.....and then resign Upton back to the Tigers for 2018 an beyond....and not have to give up a draft pick for signing Upton for 2018 either....
  21. I think it was Dombrowski that once said that when it comes to trades, "If another team is going to trade to my team two Miguel Cabrera's in exchange for my one, Miguel Cabrera,.....I would do that trade."
  22. If I'm reading Cott's baseball contracts right, here is what's going on after the 2017 and 2018 seasons.... Possibly leaving after the 2017 season is over: Justin Upton can opt out of his contract ($22.125M for 2017) JD Martinez is a free agent ($11.75M in 2017) Cameron Maybin ($9M or $1M buyout for 2017) Mike Pilfrey ($8M in 2017) Francisco Rodriguez ($6M or $1M buyout for 2017) Mark Lowe ($5.5M for 2017) Possibly leaving after the 2018 season is over; Victor Martinez is a free agent: $18M for 2018 Ian Kinsler is a free agent ($12M contract or $5M buy out for 2018) Anibal Sanchez is a free agent ($16M for the 2017 season or $5M buyout) Jose Iglesias (Arb 3 for 2018) Justin Wilson (Arb 3 for 2018) I think it's interesting that there is talk about trading JD or Upton right now when it's entirely possible that the Tigers could lose all three starting outfielders (Maybin, JD and Upton) to free agency after the 2017 season is over.
  23. My understanding is that Upton has a limited no trade clause so that he cannot be traded to 20 teams (so 10 he can, 20 he cannot unless he waives that clause). Also the problem with trying to trade Upton is that he's already been through free agency once and left another team and he's able to opt out of his contract after the 2017 season and leave another team too. So if your a team contemplating trading for Upton, you have to think of it as only a 1 year rental for sure, then you may have to bid on his services to keep him if Upton ops out of his contract again,,,
  24. My mistake, you are correct for 2017. I still very seriously doubt Sanchez will be with the Tigers in 2018 and honestly I think the Tigers will try and move him (and eat payroll if need be) this off season or during spring training for 2017. But again, your correct about Sanchez option is for 2018 and not 2017 as I thought. My mistake. Actually, the more I think about it the more sure I am that the Tigers will offer to eat salary to get rid of Sanchez to move him to another team for 2017. If the Tigers agree to eat $8M or even $10M of Sanchez's contract for 2017, that means the Tigers don't have to pay an additional $6.6 -$8.6M for this year and another $5M for his buy out option in 2018. Let another team figure out what to do with Sanchez for 2018....
  25. To me it's not only $11 million, but a major league roster spot and it raises the honest question if the Tigers really want to try and give Sanchez enough starts or turns out of a bullpen to try and find some redeeming quality out of Sanchez for 2017? For that $11 million the Tigers could go out and sign the next TWO Mark Lowe's for the 2017 campaign instead right? I could see the argument that you pick up the option, bring Sanchez to spring training for 2017, Sanchez does awesome, no other Tiger starter get's hurt in spring training and the Diamondbacks call and want to trade something ok-ish for Sanchez and the D-Backs are pleased to take most of Sanchez's contract too- fantastic! But my problem is heading into 2017, unless the Tigers cut Pelfrey and/or Lowe, that's already two pitchers the Tigers are more or less stuck with on the 25 man roster already who are "searching" for a roll in 2017 and I'm not sure having $11 million tied up in an Sanchez too for 2017 is a good use of money or a roster spot either. Again, just my opinion...
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