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Everything posted by hammb

  1. I didn't think there was a chance this team could get to double digit losses on the season. So I'll stand by my expectations of 50-60 wins. The sad truth is they have to IMPROVE to get to that point. The 2003 thing looks more likely.
  2. man that was vintage miggy. Sounded like a cannon
  3. I'm sure most all of us realize this, but I'm surprised it hasn't been mentioned here. Looking at those past draft classes, the first round picks that are highlighted as "hits", how many of them weren't even a great "scouting" job. I remember coveting JV because I read some stories about his prodigious arm, but after him, I seem to recall that most of those hits were based purely on Mike I's willingness to pay large signing bonuses that other teams wouldn't take on. Those years were before the draft salary limitations, so you could pay way over slot bonuses and not impact your ability to sign later draft picks (other than financially, obviously). I'm pretty sure that pure signability and willingness to buy kids out of their college commitments was the only real reason we drafted guys like Maybin, Miller, Porcello, and Castellanos. I think based on pure talent, all of them went much later in the draft than they should have...sort of "making it easy" to pick the right guys. Even then I think it's pretty fair to say all 4 of those guys never reached the potential they were thought to have as players. Sure, that stuff happens to prospects everywhere, and kids that come in with fanfare are more likely to disappoint than they are to overly impress, still I think it brings some questioning to our development that we were able to take ultra premium talent and still not turn them into perennial all stars. JV & Granderson are the only 2 legit stars that we've drafted & developed over the past 20 years or so. I'm sure there are other orgs that have been equally futile, but man it's painful. And of course when it's a development issue at hand (which I firmly believe it is), we've also not even really lucked into any All Stars either. Thankfully DD was mostly great at turning prospects into ML All Stars, and even finding and fixing some diamond in the rough ML players like JD. This team has never done good enough developing players to build a competent MLB roster from its own talent. And now that's what we're trying to do almost like we think bringing in outside players would cheapen it if we actually found a way to not lose 100 games.
  4. MOST of those guys haven't tasted an ounce of success above AA ball. Several are already nearing washout status since they really haven't had much success even in AAA. The ones that have made it to the big leagues only Candelario, and MAYBE Castro, have shown they have futures as actual major league contributors. I suppose you could count a couple of the relievers as well, but they're ultra small samples, and relief pitching is volatile anyhow. The handful of supposed gem prospects that have actually made it to the show (Paredes, Mize, and Skubal) have all struggled pretty mightily. Not writing them off of course, but for guys ranked in the top 100 prospects it'd be nice to see one of them come up and actually play WELL to start their career before we're penciling them in as the foundation of the next WS team.
  5. I wish I could say I was surprised by how this thing is starting, but it's exactly what I expected. Illitch is a fool who refuses to fund even attempting to win baseball games. Avila is completely over his head and has shown nothing worth looking forward to. He gave away the greatest pitcher in Tigers history for zero reason other than cutting payroll. None of the prospects returned for that trade look like they'll make it to the bigs and contribute anything. **** I wouldn't be shocked if the combined return on that trade produces less career WAR for the Tigers than what JV did just the rest of that 2017 season for Houston. Let alone going on to win another Cy Young, another No-no, etc. I have zero faith in this thing actually working, and I won't until they show they can develop any of the players that they drafted. I won't believe it has a chance to work until they actually show the ability to figure out which established MLB players could come in here and help us win, and then ACTUALLY SIGN THEM. I think this could be a fun season to watch the Hens, hopefully we get to see some of the prospects play here, but I have to say I'm not that enamored with most of our prospects either. Seems like we have a bunch of guys who are/were highly rated as prospects, but they all seem to eventually hit a wall somewhere and stall in development. I hope like **** that changes, but man it's tough to give a **** about a team that is run by people who appear to also not give a ****.
  6. No doubt there was a lot of luck involved with Pudge & Maggs both working out with their injury history. And the landscape has changed so much for the big time FAs as well in the last 15 years I'm not even sure if what I want is still feasible. I'm not asking for superstars. I just think we need to start signing SOMEBODY in FA that you think can actually contribute to a competitive (if not contending) team. Personally, I would NEVER sign a Lindor type deal unless it's to retain a HoF homegrown player. I had no issues with JV and Miggy's contracts because I wanted to see those guys around forever, even if it did hamper our ability to win down the line. I would never go out into FA looking at those top tier FAs wanting 8+ year deals. But I do think at some point we have to go out and add legit talent. Ozuna, for instance, was signed this year to a sub $20m salary and not commited past his age 35 season. Maybe we have to tack on a "we suck" premium to his salary or add a year, but at some point we simply must add some legit talent. Ever since we traded away JV (which was completely asinine) this team has been tanking like **** in the hopes they can win like the Indians/Astros with nothing but cheap talent. That's absurd, and I don't think our FO is a fraction as good as those front offices are/were.
  7. To me now is as good a time as any to start adding SOME FA vets. Unless you think that the current crop of prospects is STILL 3+ years out from making it to the big leagues. I always look back at our last successful rebuild. We didn't go out and add Pudge, Magglio, Polanco, Guillen, and Rogers all in one offseason. We brought in that talent over the preceding 2-3 years to have some worthwhile vets ready when the better prospects in our system were ready to come up. I don't think it makes great sense to sign zero worthwhile FAs until your young players are up and established. You're not going to bring in a bunch of contributors in one offseason. IF you wait to add vets until after your supposed "young core" is ready, by the time you add enough vets to round out your team that young core has likely gotten expensive.
  8. Is it worth mentioning that another major difference was that in 2003 tickets were far cheaper? Perhaps more specifically the Tigers back then were donating a ton of tickets to local promotions so you could "win" tickets through radio promos, etc. To purchase I think you could routinely get bleacher seats for under $10. As a result I know I attended 4 games that year (somehow seeing 4 wins in that disaster of a season). This year everytime I log in to think about buying tickets I'm just disgusted by the price and exit out. I know they ran some "flash sales" or something, but I missed out on the right time to order tickets when they were still cheap. I see they're running some $15 promos this weekend (when I cannot make it), so I guess they're finally starting to rectify this. Just going onto the site to order tickets (without making sure you're on the right promo day or flash sale) bleacher seats are retail at like $34 each, before their fees. That becomes close to $45. For outfield bleacher seats. To watch a team that will lose 105+ games.
  9. Sure was a blast to watch. And I can watch the likes of Vlad Jr. take BP all night long. It's a spectacle of power. I enjoyed last night's festivities far more than any Tigers game for several years now.
  10. That will forever be the trade by which I judge Avila. And by that I mean to say I'm not sure there is ANYTHING the players returned could possibly do to make me look at it favorably. JV was the only reason I was still watching games, he was still pitching as well as anybody in baseball, and he was still under team control for several more seasons. Yes, he made a high salary, but he was earning it on the field. In my opinion JV should have never even been thought of as a tradable piece for any price, period. My son wasn't old enough to know anything about Verlander, but I will never forget the first game I watched with him, the day we came home from the hospital. JV took a no-no into the 9th against the Angels. If you wanted to make it purely about "value" and detach all emotion from the issue (which I refuse to do) JV has, in his remaining Tiger controlled years, amassed 11.8 WAR for Houston. I'm not convinced we'll see 11.8 WAR from all the players we got in return combined. And since I cannot detach emotion, I"ll continue to reiterate players of JV (and Miggy) caliber should be paid until the day they decide to retire. I don't care if we're watching a broken down shell of the version we remember, there is value (IMO) to watching HoF guys play out the string of their career for my team. ****, he's not even close to an elite hitter anymore but Miggy is still about the only time I perk up to pay attention to this team anymore.
  11. I don't disagree with you at all, but I also don't think you can just wait until you're "ready to contend" to START that buying. You're not going to go out and buy 3-4 impact bats in one offseason. Look at our last successful rebuild. We signed Pudge in '04, we signed Magglio in '05. We didn't really start to see returns on those things until '06 when we added Rogers and brought JV & Zumaya up, but we had all star caliber MLB bats already on the team. We also traded for Guillen in '04 and Polanco in '05. Had they not started adding those FA bats 2 years before the "window" I don't know that the "window" would have been nearly as successful. That '06 offense was mostly reliant on established MLB talent that was not developed/drafted by Detroit, but we didn't wait for all of our prospects to hit MLB before we started adding them.
  12. Firstly, never said that I won't be rooting for them. Certainly I will. I have no problem watching a young, obviously talented team, grow. **** it's a lot of fun. But what I predict for the next year or two is something a lot more akin to 2003 where we're filling a roster with a bunch of AAAA fodder, because we're still several years from any REAL prospects making their debuts. And that is not entertaining to me in the least. I can deal with it in Football, watch horrible teams looking for the one or two young brightspots...but not baseball. Not a sport that plays 162 games over 6 months time. During the best weather time of year when there are countless other things to do. This has the makings of returning baseball to the Phil Garner days where I pay attention for the start of APril then forget baseball is even being played by mid-May. If you can find entertainment value in watching a 100 loss team in the hopes of seeing the early years of the next Bobby Higginson, more power to ya...I cannot. If that makes me a bandwagoner so be it, but it is what it is. 162 games of crap baseball is NOT my idea of quality summertime entertainment. Keeping JV on the team guaranteed at least 30 of those games had entertainment value.
  13. See that's just it. I don't think it IS necessary. Does it maybe make us a better team in 3 years than we would be if we just let JV stick around? Sure, it probably does. But I don't think it's necessary either. Draft well, develop the talent. I find it impossible to believe that picking up these 3 prospects was the difference in the 2020 team winning or not winning. Again, it's not that I have a problem with the business aspect. I had no problems moving Price, Upton, Cespedes, etc. I get the business aspect of the game. I disagree that the business aspect or winning is always the primary concern for me, as a fan. JV is not just another player. He is the best player the Tigers have drafted in my lifetime. He is the best pitcher the Tigers have had in my lifetime. I expect those statements to remain true for a VERY long time. Watching him pitch has more value to me than a few wins in 2020, and I think a well run organization could build a future winner while still letting me watch him pitch in the meantime.
  14. Thing is with Max I had seen him already pitch at the MLB level. I saw his stuff make MLB hitters look stupid. Yeah, he had had some ups and downs and was far from established, but I (and I'm sure others) not only knew who he was, but had seen him pitch. And even though Granderson was my favorite player at the time (and first jersey I ever purchased), he wasn't nearly on JV's level. JV is a HoF talent, and the guys we got back are not even ready to help Toledo win yet.
  15. Sure 3 years from now, IF they are actually winning again, I'll be happy for the current state of the team. But I don't watch the Tigers only for wins. I watch for entertainment. Winning is part of that, of course, but I've still made it a point to follow the team on JV days all season despite how awful we are. So yeah, 3 years from now if this trade pans out, I'll have some entertainment to look forward to. In the meantime I doubt that I'll even give a second thought to opening day, let alone the rest of the season for the '18/19 seasons. And the rest of '17 is garbage is well. This trade has essentially ended baseball for me for the next 3 years. At least we still have Miggy, I guess
  16. They've been beaten down to the point where they think every good season is a mirage. Trading CC, Colon, and Lee over the years has pretty much convinced them there is no reason to get emotionally invested in the team anymore because ownership will trade away every player due for a payday. You know...kinda like what we're feeling right now, but for them it's been built up for the past 15+ years. They hate Dolan and that's why they still don't flock to one of the best current teams in baseball.
  17. So freaking upset. I knew it was probably coming, but it didn't ease it any when it finally did. I've said it a million times, but there was NO return that could justify trading JV. This isn't a salary cap league, you're basically giving away the only reason to watch the Tigers because you don't want to pay him. Eff the Illitch kids. I dunno if any of these kids end up being good, I don't even care. It's probably no better than 50/50 that either will provide as much production as we'd get from the last few years of JV's contract. I wanted to watch JV pitch the rest of his career in Detroit and then see the statue built for him. I don't expect I'll be buying tickets for a game the next 3-4 years at the least. And if that earlier mention of the DeVos family comes to fruition I will no longer be a Tigers fan period. This is a sickening day to be a Tigers fan. And it doesn't even matter what the return is (which seems rather lackluster when you don't even get their top prospects).
  18. There is no realistic return that could possibly have me "OK" with trading Justin Verlander. I wouldn't be OK with it for the top prospects in all of baseball, let alone the top from any one team. Justin Verlander is worth more [to me] in a Tigers uniform than any additional wins down the line. He's going to have a statue in Comerica one day if he stays in Detroit for the rest of his contract/career. He's most likely a Hall of Famer. He's the best pitcher I've ever had the pleasure of watching pitch for the Tigers, and quite likely the best pitcher I ever will get to watch pitch for the Tigers. I still find his starts as must tune in games, if only for the occasional glimpses of what used to be. I don't care if you could guarantee me (you cannot) that the gem prospect we would get to replace him becomes a star. The odds of it being a star of JV's caliber are beyond low, and I'd much rather watch this star fade in a Tiger's uniform than hope for the slim chances of watching another star take light. And yes, I know this is pure sentimentality and could very well result in fewer wins over the next 6 seasons. I don't care. Some things are more important to me than wins.
  19. I would LOVE to see him moved up to Toledo this week since I'll be at Friday's game next week Living in the Toledo area it's always been maddening to me how few of the true prospects we get to see for any amount of time. We got Castellanos for a full year but that is NOT the norm for the way Detroit has handled their youngsters.
  20. The issues this season run far deeper than our manager but only a complete moron would have chosen Rodriguez in this game.
  21. Has to be more to it than that, because if you're ever downtown during the winter months they still flock downtown for the Cavs. Now obviously they have LeBron and have been in the NFL finals the last 2 years, but the Indians were great last season. Downtown Cleveland is awesome, I freaking love it. No idea why people don't want to go down to watch the Indians.
  22. Don't get my hopes up like that, it could be one of the best things to ever happen for the Tigers. With the Illitch kids we have no idea what we'll get in future ownership. With Gilbert we can have a pretty good idea. Outside of the Tigers I'm a Cleveland fan, and that includes the Cavs. Dan GIlbert is an absolutely FANTASTIC owner willing to take on payroll as much as possible, and do anything in his power to field a winner. Even when LeBron left he was taking payroll in trades, paying the luxury tax, to add prospects, draft picks and trade exceptions. It was Gilbert's willingness to pay the luxury tax that left them with the assets they needed to acquire Shump, JR Smith, Mozgov, and even Love to add to LeBron when he returned. Dan Gilbert buying the Tigers would be a dream scenario. And I don't think for a second that he wants Miggy/JV gone if he's gonna buy the team.
  23. As I posted 10-20 pages back. There is no prospect package in baseball that I would consider trading JV for. No prospects are guaranteed, and we're not allowed to make trades with intimate knowledge of the future. Now if you're telling me I could trade Verlander for 3 players that become future multi-year All-Stars? Sure, I MIGHT make that trade, but there are no such thing as guaranteed prospects. You'd be hard pressed to ever trade Verlander for a better prospect package than what we gave up for Cabrera, and you saw how that worked out. Baseball is riddled with star for prospect trades where 1 or less of the prospects ever contributes in the majors, let alone reaching the status of a player like Verlander. Given that we live in a reality where there is zero guarantees when it comes to prospects. I wouldn't consider it for any prospect package PERIOD. Because in the case of Verlander, he is 100% guaranteed, because I don't enjoy watching him so much for what he does going forward as I do for what he has done in the past. Every time he pitches and gets the first 6 guys out I think, oh man is it no-hitter #3? He's also a likeable follow on Twitter, and quite likely a Hall of Famer. I'd rather watch him play out the string, even if it's diminished returns, than trade him for a different player(s) who is(are) younger. To put it even more succinctly: If you could 100% guarantee me that I'd get a prospect in return that would perform exactly as JV will for the next 5 years, and do so at a cheaper cost? I still don't do it, because I'd rather watch Verlander.
  24. Yeah, if they ask to be dealt, so be it, although I"m not sure I ever see that from either player. If JV goes elsewhere after his contract expires and he's 37 or whatever, then so be it, nothing you can really do about that. But, I'm not sure there is any prospect package that any team could conceivably put together to make me want to make that move. A younger, proven superstar like a Mike Trout? Sure, I'd trade then, but that's not happening. Most likely the best you could possibly hope for would be a young, not quite yet star level, player like a Benintendi or something...and no thank you on that for me. Conversely, the JD conversation is an interesting one. If you move him now you're almost guaranteed to be worse off for '17 than you would be with him (IMO). But, if you can add a couple quality prospects, he's exactly the type of guy I don't mind letting go of. He's been beyond great for us for several years now, but I see him very much fitting the mold of the type that you'll have to give 6-7 years of high dollars to, and will quite likely NOT be very productive in his age 33+ years. If you can get him to a 5 year deal? I'd love to re-sign him rather than deal him. But I'd have to think real hard about signing him through those mid 30s years. Dunno, I just don't like the thought of paying high dollars for those ages on guys that aren't future HoF caliber players.
  25. I believe you're right. I hope you're right. As I glance through these threads, and see articles/comments on social media though, I'm always stunned that people seem to be fine (and even encourage) the idea of trading either player. In fact I keep seeing people talk about how awful Miguel's Contract is. He makes $30 million/yr, basically, for the next 7 (9 including option) years. At like $30/ticket that's a million tickets a year that need to be sold for his salary specifically, or about 12,500/gm. If Cabrera continues to progress towards the career milestones that I think are very likely for him to finish at, is it that outlandish that his contract pays a good portion of itself off just in attendance numbers? I mean, you're talking about a guy that should hit his 500th HR in 2018. His 3000th hit in 2019. And is still signed for long enough to make a solid run at 600 HRs and 3500 hits.
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