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sabretooth

MotownSports Fan
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sabretooth last won the day on November 18 2017

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About sabretooth

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    MotownSports Fan
  • Birthday 07/06/1970

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  • Location
    Kalamazoo

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  • Interests
    baseball, basketball, football, baseball stats, home improvement projects, Traditional Latin Mass (ha! didn't see THAT one coming!)

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  • Occupation
    Finance Director, City of Toledo

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  1. I want the Tigers to win 75 games and get the 14th pick in the draft. That would be as successful and entertaining a season as I could imagine...... .....and KL2 would be so, so, so, very unhappy with the unnecessary and counterproductive wins.
  2. Thanks again for the research, I appreciate that.
  3. Not to be argumentative (oh what the ****, arguments are great), if anyone is dropping their LD% by 5%, as your criteria indicated, I would expect their offensive production to go down regardless of what happened with GB or FB. Given that 91% of all hitters are between 18 - 26%, a 5% drop in LD is an enormous negative hit. I just looked at my own fantasy team and found a number of guys who had changed FB and GB by between 5-10% with very little change to LD, and the results were pretty predictable. Given that people generally hit .700 - .750 on LDs, if LDs were something you could just increase as a hitter, everybody would just hit LDs. I think the only reliable thing that hitters can decide is swing angle and approach, and that impacts whether you hit the ball more up (FB) with more strikeouts or down (GB) with less power. I think the marginal LD factors favors GB hitting, but isn't enough to offset the benefits of increased FB hitting, **up to a point**, where LA gets too steep and you wind up like Miguel Sano, with too many Ks and too inconsistent to be a reliable hitter year after year. I could be wrong, but I think until the parameters are sensitized to include players with a much smaller drop in LD% than 5% (something more like 2- 3% would be appropriate IMO, with a corresponding drop of 4-6% of GB and a 6-9% increase in FB), the analysis will focus on guys who either (a) were hitting an unsustainably high LD rate in the first year (b) had a flukey bad second year or (c) had something else health-wise or age-related going on.
  4. Thank you very much Chas, but my model depends primarily on a drop in GB (with a related, but smaller drop in LD, which is unfortunate but not intended) to make the intentional increase in FB make the hitter more productive overall. Your analysis involves only a drop in LD but no drop in GB....I would expect switching LD for FB 1:1 to hurt the hitters' productivity. If I were trying to pick parameters for building/testing a model for my hypothesis, this is how I would go: Generally speaking, hitters are split about 40 FB/40 GB/20 LD. So if I was trying to model intentional changes between FB and GB hitting, and if I am hypothesizing that LDs are basically "attached" to GBs, then a hypothetical intentional change model should be: a change of 3 FBs = 2 GB and 1 LD so.... ....a guy starting at 40 FB/40 GB/20 LD would go to 46 FB/36 GB/18 LD, or 34 FB/44 GB/22 LD, or something in-between. Does that make sense? I am pretty positive that the above change ratio would help the hitter become more productive by increasing FB.
  5. It's all hypothesis.....I have formed generalizations from looking at thousands and thousands of players over the last 15 years, but it's still just a hypothesis.....for whatever reason I have never run an analysis on this.
  6. Without having run any numbers on it, my review of thousands of hitters over the years tells me that, as a hypothesis, adapting your swing plane and approach to try to hit more LDs results in eating a larger increase GBs, and a corresponding drop in power. Not to mention, if you are going to hit LDs for power (i.e., pull the ball), you are going to be far more susceptible to the shift. All of the above adds up to this hypothesis: try to hit more LD = hitting more GB (and some LDs) = you become a less productive hitter. Conversely, guys who have shifted from GB/LD hitting to FB hitting have overwhelmingly made themselves more productive hitters. Probably more Ks, maybe less LDs, maybe lower BA, but higher ISO, SLG, OPS, wRC+. I'm trying to eliminate self-selection by focusing on guys who have switched from GB to FB and vice-versa. I unfortunately have not kept a list, but Peralta was the first one I noticed and there have been a lot of others...especially hitters who joined the Twins over the last 3+ years who were less FB oriented when they joined the Twins, and became more FB oriented, and are now more productive hitters. There is a limit -- I think Sano is a guy who has gone way too steep on LA....for him, 13-15 makes the most sense....any lower and he doesn't hit for enough power....any higher and he can't hit the ball consistently well.
  7. Thanks! This is very useful....there might just be a move towards LDs (and thus more GBs) to generate more offense. Maybe because more spray hitting is the only effective and reliable way to counteract the shift for a lot of hitters.
  8. As a general proposition a hitter with normal skills will have about the same batting average hitting FB as hitting GB, but roughly half of those FB hits will be homers and doubles as opposed to all singles (GB). If the FB hitter can successfully counteract the marginal loss of line drives which comes from more FB hitting, and the increase in strikeouts, the FB hitter as a general proposition will be better than the GB hitter, regardless of the kind of ball used. As far as I can tell most FB hitters have been better then most GB hitters for at least the last 20+ years.
  9. Well, yeah....🙂 But remember that LA also turned Jhonny P around when he was here...from mediocre worm-burner to all-around hitter. That was pre-juice.
  10. Yeah, there's a reason why so many have gone to steeper LA over the past 15 years...it works. Mazara is a terrific athlete who generates a ton of leverage. The fact that his launch angle is already up this year while his strikeout percentage is actually down so far, would suggest that his contact rate might not suffer due to his hitting more fly balls.....keep this up and hes a plus hitter by the end of this year.
  11. Yeah....there are about 13 guys on the Yankees who would qualify for this rank as well.
  12. Chris' lack of budgetary support is a serious issue for any GM.... It goes without saying that an average budget would have made this team better but it also goes without saying after all of these years that AA is just not up to the task of being a decent/good/excellent GM given any budget, mandate, or situation.
  13. Nomar is a surprisingly consistent and just-a-touch-below-average player in every phase. Batting average? just a touch below. On base? A little more below average. Fielding? A little below average. Strikeouts? Mediocre. Slugging and ISO? A little above average, so his Ks look pretty decent or even good for a guy with his pop. The results hitting-wise is an anemic 95 RC+. The result of all of the above is that he's never had a season WAR above 0.9. While he may not suck at any one thing, he sucks overall. The answer to get him over the hump is clear: more launch angle. He has generally been below 10, probably should be more like 13. He has been a GB machine (50% career) with a low FB rate (30% career). If he can use a 13 or better launch angle and produce 40%+ FBs, he would probably be an above average hitter overall.
  14. And the deadline deals that he made in 2015 before he was fired have still produced **more than 3 times the on field production** than all of AAs trades combined since (24 vs 7 WAR). Literally Dave Dombroski did 3 times more in trades to help the Tigers on the field in one day, heading out the door, than Avila has done with trades in the six years since!
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