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MLB .. to be suspended indefinitely due to Co-Vid19

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Ball Four is fantastic; deserving of all the high praise it receives.  I also recommend The Bronx Zoo by Sparky Lyle, and The Wrong Stuff by Bill "Spaceman" Lee.

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I don't see what all the fuss is about. The Tigers fans have been  mastering social distancing at Comerica Park for years

HSXii09.jpg

Bring on the regular  season,  we got this one!!

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toronto has banned all public events until the end of june.  

so there goes the idea of baseball before the 4th of july.

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Just now, Buddha said:

toronto has banned all public events until the end of june.  

so there goes the idea of baseball before the 4th of july.

I think if baseball is going to play this year, they will have to start in empty parks and then the fans come back state by state in the places where things have progressed that far. Otherwise they have to wait for the very last state/regiona to lift restrictions - who knows how far out that could be?

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Just have the whole season be computer simulations.  Remember that old saying, the game is played on the field, not on the computer?  Well, let's debunk that theory this year.  I bet Al Avila and Ron Gardenhire wish they had applied more sabermetrics to this team now.  

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20 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I think if baseball is going to play this year, they will have to start in empty parks and then the fans come back state by state in the places where things have progressed that far. Otherwise they have to wait for the very last state/regiona to lift restrictions - who knows how far out that could be?

sure, but imagine when one player tests positive during the season.  or when one player has a fever and other symptoms.  they would have to shut down the whole league and test everyone.

its just not going to work until if and when the virus is completely gone or they have a vaccine.  which means they likely arent playing baseball this year.

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I miss baseball, but not as much as I miss Beth Bernstein.

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10 hours ago, Buddha said:

sure, but imagine when one player tests positive during the season.  or when one player has a fever and other symptoms.  they would have to shut down the whole league and test everyone.

its just not going to work until if and when the virus is completely gone or they have a vaccine.  which means they likely arent playing baseball this year.

Or treatments are proven effective.  Once multiple treatments are proven effective with 5-7 day "cures" and getting it doesn't become a significant danger, what is the difference between COVID-19 and another virus?  It is hugely important to slow down the spread until the treatments are here, but it is crazy for places to be banning activities months down the road IMO.  Once valid treatments are here, if a player tests positive during the season, they take the treatments and it is handled like the normal flu.  Obviously, with no treatments this wasn't/isn't the case, but I  personally really don't think contracting COVID-19 will be a big deal come mid-April/early May as I believe there will be treatments available that have a 99.5 + % success rate in treating it.  

We are acting like there will never be a treatment found, or we have to wait until we get a vaccine so no one can get it.  I just don't think that is correct.  We do need to slow it down until treatments can be found as it currently has a much higher rate of serious effects, but there are already 5-10 very promising treatments that are being tested here and around the world, not just hydroxychloroquine.  I honestly expect a significant shift to come within the next couple weeks where the fear of COVID-19 will drop dramatically. 

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5 minutes ago, 4hzglory said:

but there are already 5-10 very promising treatments that are being tested here and around the world, not just hydroxychloroquine

We'll see. RNA virues are a very tough nut to crack.

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there are not going to be vaccines available for a long time, certainly not in two weeks.  these things require trials and testings that take a long time.

as for "treatments" if youre talking about using already available drugs that lessen the severity of symptoms in some patients, sure i guess.  maybe.  but those are not cures and they do not stop the spread of the virus.

until there is a cure, this is going to be an issue for sports teams because their business is to bring large gatherings of people together and that facilitates the spread of viruses.

i wouldnt get my hopes up.

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yeah I hope I am wrong but I don't see baseball being played this year.  If we get anything it will be in late summer/fall and something we're really not used to... neutral sites, etc.

I'm also pretty sure my summer concerts will be cancelled.  Have a few in July and August.  I haven't asked my friends for their share yet because I'm sure we'll be getting refunds in the next few weeks.

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11 minutes ago, Buddha said:

but those are not cures and they do not stop the spread of the virus.

Treatments that reduce the time contagious from 21 days to 4-6 days definitely reduces the spread of the virus.  And if the results from contracting the virus end up meaning no dangerous symptoms for 99.5+ plus of those infected, it ends up being much less dangerous  if someone contracts the virus, and similar to many other viruses that have gone through from H1N1 to the common flu.  It obviously isn't at that stage now, but I definitely don't see us "needing to have a vaccine" before we can open any events again.  

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I will say, I am generally optimistic, so I'd lean towards 2-3 week at a time policies with extensions rather than 1-2 month at a time.  

Obviously leagues/concerts/etc need to build in extra time, but for cities/states to ban all gatherings for multiple months in advance at this point (or any point IMO) is kind of crazy.

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The thing to look for is the strain on hospitals...  the # of rooms being used by these patients, how many are in ICU, how many are on ventilators, what's the status on PPE.... until that gets close to "normal" I don't see any discussions on opening things up in terms of large gatherings.  As long as they have patients at Cobo they aren't opening up Comerica Park.  They talk about peaks in the next month so really it won't be until June before you can make an informed decision based on data. 

They might open up restaurants and allow non essential businesses to open by then but big events will still be dicey.  

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Oblong said:

The thing to look for is the strain on hospitals...  the # of rooms being used by these patients, how many are in ICU, how many are on ventilators, what's the status on PPE.... until that gets close to "normal" I don't see any discussions on opening things up in terms of large gatherings.  As long as they have patients at Cobo they aren't opening up Comerica Park.  They talk about peaks in the next month so really it won't be until June before you can make an informed decision based on data. 

They might open up restaurants and allow non essential businesses to open by then but big events will still be dicey.  

 

 

Completely agree.  That's where the treatments come in.  If the treatments end up being successful in eliminating hospital stays for 99+ pct of the patients, then the hospital strain is eliminated. Until we are at that point, nothing will (or probably should) open up.  I just think that point is much sooner than months down the road.  I really think we are going to have more positive results reported from treatments that are already beginning to be approved by the FDA.  If all parties involved can get past political interests, I think we can see the strain on hospitals dropped dramatically during this month.  But areas like Detroit (with over 80% of the cases in MI) and NYC (with roughly 35% of the cases in the US) and Chicago, etc need to have the strain on hospitals reduced before any relaxing of the social distancing in those areas especially.

Testing is obviously another area that will dramatically reduce the spread and as 1 hr or less kits are being approved now, and soon to be home testing kits available, that will also significantly help us return to limited function.  If I can reliably test at home before going out, or we can test people that come to work in a "quarantined area" and have quick results, it isolating cases becomes realistic.  There are many ways functionality can return to our nation long before a vaccine is in place.

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1 hour ago, 4hzglory said:

Or treatments are proven effective.  Once multiple treatments are proven effective with 5-7 day "cures" and getting it doesn't become a significant danger, what is the difference between COVID-19 and another virus?  It is hugely important to slow down the spread until the treatments are here, but it is crazy for places to be banning activities months down the road IMO.  Once valid treatments are here, if a player tests positive during the season, they take the treatments and it is handled like the normal flu.  Obviously, with no treatments this wasn't/isn't the case, but I  personally really don't think contracting COVID-19 will be a big deal come mid-April/early May as I believe there will be treatments available that have a 99.5 + % success rate in treating it.  

 

That sounds really optimistic to me.  There will be treatment eventually, but even accelerated clinical trials take time.  I am hoping reliable treatment is found before a second wave occurs.

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1 hour ago, tiger337 said:

That sounds really optimistic to me.  There will be treatment eventually, but even accelerated clinical trials take time.  I am hoping reliable treatment is found before a second wave occurs.

Clinical trials are looking for some effect that helps at all, any effect that meets the 0.05 alpha for having made some difference even if marginal. The truth is, if anything had worked demonstratively well so far - anything that could be called "curative" (e.g. like penicillin on Strep in the pre superbug era or even AZT on aids) they would be suspending trials and just using it. And in fact a lot of that is already going on with chloroquine, but we are not seeing any great increase in case clearance rates (i.e. people getting better quicker)

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9 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

That sounds really optimistic to me.  There will be treatment eventually, but even accelerated clinical trials take time.  I am hoping reliable treatment is found before a second wave occurs.

The famous one (hydroxychloroquine) has already been approved for use for treatment (not just trials)and seeing positive results with very little side effects as well as current availability to treat 2-4 million patients (additional without exhausting other things it is used for) and an additional 46 million patient capacity by the end of May (230 million doses/5 doses per patient treatment)

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1 hour ago, 4hzglory said:

The famous one (hydroxychloroquine) has already been approved for use for treatment (not just trials)and seeing positive results with very little side effects as well as current availability to treat 2-4 million patients (additional without exhausting other things it is used for) and an additional 46 million patient capacity by the end of May (230 million doses/5 doses per patient treatment)

Are the positive results anecdotal or is there data on it?  There are lots of claims about thousands of drugs out there and many of them are not true.  Repeating them over and over doesn't make them true.  

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2 minutes ago, tiger337 said:

Are the positive results anecdotal or is there data on it?  There are lots of claims about thousands of drugs out there and many of them are not true.  Repeating them over and over doesn't make them true.  

Exactly and that is what is being verified.  

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

Clinical trial are looking for some effect that helps at all, any effect that meets the 0.05 alpha for having made some difference even if marginal. The truth is, if anything had worked demonstratively well so far - anything that could be called "curative" (e.g. like penicillin on Strep in the pre superbug era or even AZT on aids) they would be suspending trials and just using it. And in fact a lot of that is already going on with chloroquine, but we are not seeing any great increase in case clearance rates (i.e. people getting better quicker)

yes, I have seen so many studies that result in effects that are real but marginal.  Marginal is better than nothing, but it should not be overstated.   It's actually unusual, at least in my field, to find an effect that is not marginal.  

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For reference sake they cancelled Wimbledon.

First time since WWII

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6 minutes ago, Oblong said:

For reference sake they cancelled Wimbledon.

First time since WWII

The NFL is feeling like they dodged a bullet. 

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36 minutes ago, Yoda said:

The NFL is feeling like they dodged a bullet. 

I could see them being able to play in front of empty stadiums... I once read that they didn't need to sell a single ticket or concession item to turn a profit. 

Imagine the ratings they'd haul in if they could play on TV in September and October....

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3 hours ago, Oblong said:

I could see them being able to play in front of empty stadiums... I once read that they didn't need to sell a single ticket or concession item to turn a profit. 

Imagine the ratings they'd haul in if they could play on TV in September and October....

true, but all it takes is one person to get it and you would have to shut everything down.  say stafford comes down with it.  the lions cant play anyone for two weeks and he has to go into isolation and everyone on the lions and all the teams theyve played in the previous two weeks are going into isolation too.  that would play havoc with any schedule.

but they played baseball in 1918 during the last big pandemic, so ya never know.

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