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Coronavirus: Coming to a Neighborhood Near You?

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1 hour ago, Melody said:

I still don't understand the ferocity of the resistance to masks, though.  They are a little inconvenient but aren't that big a deal.

Especially now here in MI with the weather turning.  They offer a nice way to keep the face warm. The only time I am annoyed is when I am in a place like Lowe’s that I have to read something.  My glasses fog up. But otherwise it’s not even an inconvenience. It’s so harmless. They can also be fashion statements.  I know some Muslim women who cover for that very reason. They have a nice hijab that matches their sweater, etc. 

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As far as the glasses fogging up, for me it seems like it works best if I have a mask with a preformed pointed nose bridge (must be a wire or something in there, thicker than a disposable medical mask) and I wear those with the top of the mask kind of close to my eyes (which just happens to be the most comfortable).  It doesn't prevent the fogging, but it does seem to limit it pretty well.

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I am not following her math. Assuming a January thru April timeline (to allow for full effectiveness of 2 doses), that’s 2.7M a day for 100%. Granted the point still stands, the current rate isn’t good. But the tweet Mentioned math. 

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1 hour ago, Oblong said:

I am not following her math. Assuming a January thru April timeline (to allow for full effectiveness of 2 doses), that’s 2.7M a day for 100%. Granted the point still stands, the current rate isn’t good. But the tweet Mentioned math. 

The factor of 2? I think her numbers work if you are are talking single dosing rates for a 2 dose vaccine. If 80% of the pop is roughly 300 million and at 1 million doses/wk you get 500K immunized people, then it's 600 wks - which is over 10yrs. If later vaccines are single dose then you get the 2x factor back of course. At 1.7 million immunized people per day (3.4 million shots), in 180 days (roughly the end of June from now) you get 306 million.

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

The factor of 2? I think her numbers work if you are are talking single dosing rates for a 2 dose vaccine. If 80% of the pop is roughly 300 million and at 1 million doses/wk you get 500K immunized people, then it's 600 wks - which is over 10yrs. If later vaccines are single dose then you get the 2x factor back of course. At 1.7 million immunized people per day (3.4 million shots), in 180 days (roughly the end of June from now) you get 306 million.

Yes. I thought about it while driving somewhere. I keep forgetting that a dose is half the job. 
 

but I’m not discouraged yet.  We do 100M every fall for the flu shot with no sense of urgency.  With the holidays falling on a Thursday and Friday this year I think that presents hiccups too. And not knowing exactly their allotment meant they had to probably be more cautious than they’d like, to ensure enough 2nd doses.  Get a cadence going. 

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When testing first got rolled out, in my bubble at least, it seemed like so few people that thought they might have Covid or were showing some symptoms actually were tested.

There are already so many individuals I know that have received their first shot.  Obviously it would be nice to see a bigger number of vaccines going out, but it does seem 'better'.   While I know we need two doses to reach the 90+ % rate, it's not like the first dose doesn't offer any protection either.  

Additionally, I wonder how the high rate of effectiveness will drive what we see with this virus.   A good flu vaccine year is 60% effective, it was only 45% effective last year.  Obviously it's not as contagious as Covid, but if roughly 50% of the population get a flu shot that is 45-60% effective and it somewhat controls the spread of it, how much relief will we start to see at a small, but good chunk of the population that is ~95% effective from getting it.

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18 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

When testing first got rolled out, in my bubble at least, it seemed like so few people that thought they might have Covid or were showing some symptoms actually were tested.

There are already so many individuals I know that have received their first shot.  Obviously it would be nice to see a bigger number of vaccines going out, but it does seem 'better'.   While I know we need two doses to reach the 90+ % rate, it's not like the first dose doesn't offer any protection either.  

Additionally, I wonder how the high rate of effectiveness will drive what we see with this virus.   A good flu vaccine year is 60% effective, it was only 45% effective last year.  Obviously it's not as contagious as Covid, but if roughly 50% of the population get a flu shot that is 45-60% effective and it somewhat controls the spread of it, how much relief will we start to see at a small, but good chunk of the population that is ~95% effective from getting it.

The thing about the flu vaccine effectiveness is that there are so many strains so they project what strains will be circulating when preparing the vaccine.  Sometimes they miss.  So far not an issue with Covid.  

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3 minutes ago, Melody said:

The thing about the flu vaccine effectiveness is that there are so many strains so they project what strains will be circulating when preparing the vaccine.  Sometimes they miss.  So far not an issue with Covid.  

Correct, these newer mRNA vaccines essentially go after the protein that allows the virus to 'stick' to things.  So far, the different strains still have that same protein.  As such, the vaccine should remain just as effective against those.  

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1 hour ago, Melody said:

The thing about the flu vaccine effectiveness is that there are so many strains so they project what strains will be circulating when preparing the vaccine.  Sometimes they miss.  So far not an issue with Covid.  

flu is doubly hard because even if they pick the strain that actually hits, it may mutate between when the vaccine recipe is fixed and the time the vaccine gets to the public. Flu is a slippery little bugger.

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24 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

An incoming member of Congress has succumbed to the virus...

41 yrs old with 2 small children. Pretty terrible.

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So they are saying stimulus payments could be arriving as soon as tonight. I ended up closing the account I had on file so I'm not sure what will happen if my stimulus is sent. The IRS website appears to be unavailable. 

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I think I know more people who have gotten the vaccine than have had covid. But my wife is in health care and so are a few close friends so maybe that’s why. 

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19 hours ago, Oblong said:

Just seems like mathematically 50 % is enough to make it very very  manageable.  And really at that point if people aren’t taking the vaccine then screw them. I don’t think hospitals will be overrun by then. I could see the nation at summer in Michigan levels.  It’ll be there but we will be sort of normal. A test for me will be sporting events.  Will masks be required?  Etc. 

Something tells me exhausting a deductible might change that calculus for some of them

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10 minutes ago, pfife said:

Something tells me exhausting a deductible might change that calculus for some of them

Wife already had one co worker change her mind.  She’s all trumpy and it’s a hoax and lockdowns suck,  etc. but when she saw people getting the vaccine she’s like “well....”  it’s that downriver thing.  

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My son works at a car dealership with 50 employees.  In the past 3 weeks they have had 20 positive cases and apparently one death.  They were forced to close for 2 weeks, about a week ago.

it's a good company, they take all the precautions.  About 3 weeks ago they sent someone home who was too sick to be in there, and that's probably how it all started.

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Its scary the amount of people I'm hearing that have gotten lately despite taking the necessary precautions.  

This whole time I've basically treated it like if you wear a mask, keep your distance in public and wash/sanitize your hands regularly then the chances of you getting it are miniscule.  But the past month or so  I've seen more and more people say they got it despite doing those things.   

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50 minutes ago, RandyMarsh said:

Its scary the amount of people I'm hearing that have gotten lately despite taking the necessary precautions.  

This whole time I've basically treated it like if you wear a mask, keep your distance in public and wash/sanitize your hands regularly then the chances of you getting it are miniscule.  But the past month or so  I've seen more and more people say they got it despite doing those things.   

But are they doing it when they should be?

My mother-in-law apparently thinks being around us is a safe zone.  I "invited" her to wear a mask at our house on Christmas (which was just my family of 4 and the in-laws).  We were all wearing masks except for her.  I was in another part of the house when they walked in and I overheard her say something about how we've probably been hunkered down in a bunker for a while.  Nah, that ain't how this is going to work, not in my house.  You're relatives, but you're outside of our household.

And then to extend out of my control, if she thinks we're a safe zone, how about elsewhere?  Is she not masking at church?  How about the funeral that they went to after Thanksgiving?  How about when her sisters came up to visit her a few weeks ago.  They say they masked and distanced, but when my wife mentions how some parts of her family have reacted to the guidelines, nope, I'm just not into taking any chances right now.

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16 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

41 yrs old with 2 small children. Pretty terrible.

No less terrible than the 300,000+ others who have died, several of whom might have died because of his maskless campaign events, promoting re-opening the economy, etc.  Not that anyone deserves it, but the stupidity of the Trump followers never ceases to amaze me.  

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6 minutes ago, Kacie said:

No less terrible than the 300,000+ others who have died, several of whom might have died because of his maskless campaign events, promoting re-opening the economy, etc.  Not that anyone deserves it, but the stupidity of the Trump followers never ceases to amaze me.  

Yeah. But he was “free-er”. I’m sure his kids will take comfort in that growing up without their father.  “He didn’t let fear of a mask hold him back!”   

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17 hours ago, mtutiger said:

An incoming member of Congress has succumbed to the virus...

 Not to mean to the dead but she could do better.   Obviously, now she can. 

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These modelers know what they are doing.  On November 1 the Ontario daily new case count was 977, and the modelers were saying that it had the potential to reach 3,000 by year end - a staggering number, seemingly impossible.  Today's count is 2,943.  A simple explanation is that people are really ******* stupid.

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You would think having someone die close to you would wake people up, but even that often isn’t the case. 
 

I know a girl who’s grandmother in Mississippi passed away from it this past spring. Her father is still convinced it’s not real and she died of something else. 

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