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We have 4 cases of the UK variant in Canada now.  2 are in Ontario, from about 3 days ago...they haven't traveled anywhere, or done anything unusual.  So, that means that there is at least one person out there who has it and we don't know about it.  As of today, we have 2 more in British Columbia.

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LTC starting to get moderna’s vaccine. I’m already seeing grumbling about rollout. That was my concern. Didn’t think we’d see production or supply issues holding things up. The bottleneck would the “ in the arm “ portion.  I’m sure holidays didn’t help. From friends it Looks like Beaumont has already sent out the call to any employees now.  My wife’s system is behind. She’s still waiting. Yesterday 4 of her 5 patients were positive.  Yet some admins there are not quite sure yet if they qualify. They had one patient there for a month who just now tested positive so that means they got it in the hospital which now means they have to see patients in their rooms now as they clean things up. 

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1 minute ago, pfife said:

you seem to be suggesting that "warp speed" may not be that fast?

Possibly. Or like testing they just figure “we gave them to the states.... our job is done”. 

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1 minute ago, Oblong said:

Possibly. Or like testing they just figure “we gave them to the states.... our job is done”. 

operation "delegate at warp speed"

that sounds totally plausible with this bunch

 

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100M by end of year...maybe 20M... here’s 10M and we will hold on to the other 10M...

art of the deal. 

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he seems to be supporting the "it was dumped on the states" hypothesis

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it's really sad how inept our government has become.     We weren't always like this.

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2020 Predictions on COVID....

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/29/worst-predictions-about-2020-451444

Quote

March 6: “It’ll go away.”
March 10: “Just stay calm. It will go away.”
March 12: “It’s going to go away.”
March 30: “It will go away. You know it — you know it is going away, and it will go away, and we’re going to have a great victory.”
March 31: “It’s going to go away, hopefully at the end of the month. And, if not, hopefully it will be soon after that.”
April 3: “It is going to go away… It’s going — I didn’t say a date. … I said ‘it’s going away,’ and it is going away.”
April 7: “It did go — it will go away.”
May 15: “It’ll go away — at some point, it’ll go away.”
June 15: “At some point, this stuff goes away. And it's going away.”
July 19: “I will be right eventually. You know, I said, ‘It's going to disappear.’ I'll say it again.”
Aug. 5: “This thing's going away. It will go away like things go away.”
Aug. 31: “It's going to go away.”
Sept. 15: “It is going away. And it's probably going to go away now a lot faster because of the vaccines.”
Oct. 10: “It's going to disappear; it is disappearing.”
Oct. 24: “It is going away; it’s rounding the turn.”

Maybe we should have listened to Stephen Pastis instead (from a year ago)

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2 hours ago, Oblong said:

Possibly. Or like testing they just figure “we gave them to the states.... our job is done”. 

Sounds to me like the issue re your wife is firmly at her employer's administration.  My DIL works in HR and got her first dose today.  And she most definitely doesn't see patients, works from home.

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5 minutes ago, Melody said:

Sounds to me like the issue re your wife is firmly at her employer's administration.  My DIL works in HR and got her first dose today.  And she most definitely doesn't see patients, works from home.

in that situation it certainly is....  my overall point was it seems to be a common theme across the country from what I am reading.  In my wife's situation it's not volume but the who.... but I am seeing reports on volumes not being what was expected.  They are still at the facilities waiting to be told where to send them.

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so optimistically, we get 120 million people vaccinated by sometime in the summer. There will have been 25-30 million confirmed cases so probably 70-100 million will actually have been exposed/were already immune/had asymptomatic cases - though there will be a lot of overlap in those two populations - so assuming that among people who have had CV-19, even if they can catch it again are going to be at lower risk of a serious case - then roughly half the population should have some resistance by summer. That isn't herd immunity level but it is high enough that even the US population's half aszed compliance with public health advice should be enough to kill the large outbreaks. The question is whether people at least keep up with moderate levels of discipline as this year progresses.

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15 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

so optimistically, we get 120 million people vaccinated by sometime in the summer. There will have been 25-30 million confirmed cases so probably 70-100 million will actually have been exposed/were already immune/had asymptomatic cases - though there will be a lot of overlap in those two populations - so assuming that among people who have had CV-19, even if they can catch it again are going to be at lower risk of a serious case - then roughly half the population should have some resistance by summer. That isn't herd immunity level but it is high enough that even the US population's half aszed compliance with public health advice should be enough to kill the large outbreaks. The question is whether people at least keep up with moderate levels of discipline as this year progresses.

Wow.  I don't think I've ever seen you ask such a stupid question before.

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5 minutes ago, Casimir said:

Wow.  I don't think I've ever seen you ask such a stupid question before.

LOL - yeah - what was I thinking?

though in all seriousness, this last wave has been severe enough that I have to hope it got a lot of previously resistant peoples' attention.

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Wife just got back from getting hers. Now she wants to go run 4 miles.  The funny thing is the lady giving it to her said “we’ve been dead all morning”.  My wife set off a chain reaction as she texted her department to check their emails. She was off today but went in.  

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55 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

so optimistically, we get 120 million people vaccinated by sometime in the summer. There will have been 25-30 million confirmed cases so probably 70-100 million will actually have been exposed/were already immune/had asymptomatic cases - though there will be a lot of overlap in those two populations - so assuming that among people who have had CV-19, even if they can catch it again are going to be at lower risk of a serious case - then roughly half the population should have some resistance by summer. That isn't herd immunity level but it is high enough that even the US population's half aszed compliance with public health advice should be enough to kill the large outbreaks. The question is whether people at least keep up with moderate levels of discipline as this year progresses.

Just seems like mathematically 50 % is enough to make it very very  manageable.  And really at that point if people aren’t taking the vaccine then screw them. I don’t think hospitals will be overrun by then. I could see the nation at summer in Michigan levels.  It’ll be there but we will be sort of normal. A test for me will be sporting events.  Will masks be required?  Etc. 

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52 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

LOL - yeah - what was I thinking?

though in all seriousness, this last wave has been severe enough that I have to hope it got a lot of previously resistant peoples' attention.

Either that or enough of the dumb-dumbs have already gotten sick and recovered, so have at least some residual immunity, however long that lasts.

 

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I still don't understand the ferocity of the resistance to masks, though.  They are a little inconvenient but aren't that big a deal.

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I don’t get it either, they can be annoying at times when they don’t fit tightly enough fo my glasses, otherwise they are fine. I expect mask wearing will continue to be the norm for the foreseeable future.

I’m seeing where Moderna was just delivered to one of the two major health systems here. I expect it will be late spring early summer before I can get vaccinated. Between moving and changing insurance companies, I’ll probably wait until one of the major drug chains start giving out shots.

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1 hour ago, Oblong said:

Wife just got back from getting hers. Now she wants to go run 4 miles.

You must be really annoying around the house.

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2 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

LOL - yeah - what was I thinking?

though in all seriousness, this last wave has been severe enough that I have to hope it got a lot of previously resistant peoples' attention.

I don't know.  I think people are letting their guards down around the holidays, with kids out of schools, etc.

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