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Coronavirus: Coming to a Neighborhood Near You?

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My wife did an indoor cycle class today with a mask. 30 min.  The instructor wanted to feel everyone out. She said it was tough but doable. I signed up for a kettlebell indoors on Thursday.  They are held in a giant ballroom so I am not overly concerned 

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7 hours ago, CMRivdog said:

I can’t tell you the last time I went to a theatre. I can wait the few months for it to come to my 60 inch screen. There is nobody around me having a conversation or reading their phone. No crackling of candy wrappers. Popcorn is fresh and tastes better.

And I can pause it if I have to head to the John. Plus there is no line

I can.  We went to see "They Shall Not Grow Old," in 3D in December 2018.   Honestly, we most often go to the drive-in.  We can take the dog with us, and fewer accessibility issues.

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We saw something last fall, I can’t remember what it was (Star Wars related??) Before that was the Downton Abby movie but I consider that somewhat work related.

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45 minutes ago, Melody said:

I can.  We went to see "They Shall Not Grow Old," in 3D in December 2018.   Honestly, we most often go to the drive-in.  We can take the dog with us, and fewer accessibility issues.

I do love an archival world war documentary film shown in 3D.

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So I'm thinking the next irony for UM is going to be that they are going to shut down what few in person classes there are at the end of November and send everyone home to finish exams remotely. But they have the positivity rate on campus down pushing 1% and will be ramping up random testing capacity to something on the order of 20% of the student body per week during October. They may have the campus in a high degree of containment and then throw it all away by sending students home for 5 weeks to come back again infected in January! 

LOL - the one thing no-one  planned on is that the plan might work.

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1 hour ago, CMRivdog said:

We saw something last fall, I can’t remember what it was (Star Wars related??) Before that was the Downton Abby movie but I consider that somewhat work related.

We saw 1917 at the drive in.  The popcorn butter machine was broken.  👎    But bottles of wine are half price on Wednesdays so we scored there.  And the bulldog got to make friends with some children so she had a great time.  We truly don't go to the movies very often.  It's pretty rare any more to see a new release that holds enough interest for us to go to much effort or spend the money.

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17 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

So I'm thinking the next irony for UM is going to be that they are going to shut down what few in person classes there are at the end of November and send everyone home to finish exams remotely. But they have the positivity rate on campus down pushing 1% and will be ramping up random testing capacity to something on the order of 20% of the student body per week during October. They may have the campus in a high degree of containment and then throw it all away by sending students home for 5 weeks to come back again infected in January! 

LOL - the one thing no-one  planned on is that the plan might work.

“On campus.”

Anecdotal account warning here, but our doctor friends here are saying that the umich dashboard is a joke because it is only using the official university count. But that many students, even students in dorms, are not using the UHS testing but instead getting an outside test so they aren’t forced into quarantine housing.

Anyway, I thought the plan has always been for everything to shut down at thanksgiving and for nothing to start back up until mid January.

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14 minutes ago, Shelton said:

“On campus.”

Anecdotal account warning here, but our doctor friends here are saying that the umich dashboard is a joke because it is only using the official university count. But that many students, even students in dorms, are not using the UHS testing but instead getting an outside test so they aren’t forced into quarantine housing.

 

this is correct, the University requests but cannot compel those whose tests were done outside the system to report then to the U. But the Washtenaw County totals include those people and the County Health Dept site breaks it down by zip code so university cases are pretty obvious. There has been a little activity in the country numbers in 48104/105, but there is no big story there flying under anyone's radar.

Yes the plan is to send everyone home for 5 weeks. But the logic of that plan grew out of an assumption that control was going to be more difficult on campus than for the students at home. What I said is potentially ironic is that so far that assumption may not turn out to be justified. Of course there are still 8 weeks for thing to go south, but if current conditions in A^2 and Wash Co in general hold, we will be sending many(most?) students back to areas with higher incidence rates than the one they will be leaving.

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Ok. When you said “they are going to **** down” I read that as they are going to decide to shut down. 
 

I agree that it could be ironic if they are sending people home to get infected at a higher rate. We’ll see. 
 

I’m skeptical of whatever county numbers you are using. The county has been increasing since students returned. 58% of cases right now are 18-22 year olds. Maybe it’s all EMU?

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1 minute ago, Shelton said:

Ok. When you said “they are going to **** down” I read that as they are going to decide to shut down. 
 

I agree that it could be ironic if they are sending people home to get infected at a higher rate. We’ll see. 
 

I’m skeptical of whatever county numbers you are using. The county has been increasing since students returned. 58% of cases right now are 18-22 year olds. Maybe it’s all EMU?

I think the numbers in the county certainly are mostly UM and EMU at this point, it's just that those totals are staying pretty manageable. The  county has held at about 5-6 cases/100k/day through both schools having students return.

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6 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

I think the numbers in the county certainly are mostly UM and EMU at this point, it's just that those totals are staying pretty manageable. The  county has held at about 5-6 cases/100k/day through both schools having students return.

Agreed. It hasn’t gotten as bad as I thought. At the same time, the state had been going down. So relatively speaking it feels a bit worse than it could have been. I think the transition from summer to fall (and fewer opportunities for socialization in general as families transition back to “school days”) has reduced spread in general.  But then you look at the various county numbers on Covid act now and see how all of the college counties are seeing their numbers go up, in some cases dramatically, and I can’t help but feel strongly that if most of these kids had stayed home instead of returning to campus, the state could have been in very good shape right now. 

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4 hours ago, Oblong said:

Regarding Whitmer and her “power grabs”...  that doesn’t make sense. The easiest thing to do would be to open if all up and just claim ignorance and “it is what it is”.  It’s not like she’s catering to a particular constituency. There’s no group out there demanding that theaters be closed and gyms capped at 25%.  There’s not a lobby for that. They are making difficult decisions and that’s what leaders do.  Not pandering. 

Correct, there isn't a lobby for gyms and theaters and low and behold, gyms are just getting opened and theaters are still closed.  I don't believe for a second that Casino's can be safer than gym's or theaters, but i'm not going to lie, I only have my thoughts and feelings on that, I don't have any science to back it up.   

My only point is that since March i've been told science will determine how things get reopened.  She's had six months, she can't share some of the data she is using to make these decisions?  Is that really that hard?  

That's really all i'm bitching about right now.  She might be doing it the right way.  I certainly would put my money on her over Trump when it comes to dealing with this, i'm just not seeing any transparency on it either and that bothers me.

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I should amend one statement above. I said the U can't compel students to report, but it's not like they have no leverage ether. I believe it's been added to the code of conduct such that dishonesty about your status could be grounds for dismissal. Young people being young, that won't deter everyone, but on the other hand, it will deter some.

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5 minutes ago, Shelton said:

Agreed. It hasn’t gotten as bad as I thought. At the same time, the state had been going down. So relatively speaking it feels a bit worse than it could have been. I think the transition from summer to fall (and fewer opportunities for socialization in general as families transition back to “school days”) has reduced spread in general.  But then you look at the various county numbers on Covid act now and see how all of the college counties are seeing their numbers go up, in some cases dramatically, and I can’t help but feel strongly that if most of these kids had stayed home instead of returning to campus, the state could have been in very good shape right now. 

Eastern I can understand. So much of their student body are working people who can't afford to get sick so I'm not that surprised EMU hasn't become a big hot spot.  UM? I had an idea the engin school students would toe the line, I really had no clue about the rest as I don't just don't see them.

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Went to depot town yesterday to pick up takeout and mask compliance seemed lower than I'm used to around here

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From Charlie Sykes this morning (I really need to pay for a subscription)

Quote

This also seems like a good time to look back on the way Trump’s media allies attacked the models, the science, the experts, and the media, as they sought to downplay the possible death toll. Oliver Darcy brings the receipts:

>> Rush Limbaugh: "It's now down to 60,000. What happened to 240,000? What happened to 100,000 to 200,000? What happened to 240,000?"

>> Brian Kilmeade: "The fact is, when someone says 200,000 people die, oops, I mean 60,000. And it's not going to be right away, it's going to be in August. That's how good we are doing and how off the models were..."

>> Bill O'Reilly: “The [death toll] projections that you just mentioned are down to 60,000, I don’t think it will be that high..."

>> Candace Owens: "FACT: we went from 2.2 million, to 100,000, to 60,000 predictive #coronavirus deaths because the models were always bulls**t, the media was always lying, and the virus was never as fatal as the experts that are chronically wrong about everything, prophesized..."

>> Laura Ingraham: "They were off by a factor of 33 from 2.2 million projected COVID deaths at the top, which was terrifying to a little bit more than 60,000 deaths projected today..."

>> Mark Levin: "We've seen these numbers, these so-called models and the data over the last six to eight weeks. They have fluctuated wildly. Millions might die. Hundreds of thousands might die. Now, they're saying 60,000 give or take, maybe less than 60,000...."

>> Tucker Carlson: "Sixty thousand deaths -- that's a very big number. ... Yet, at the same time, it is far fewer than many expected. It is a much lower number...."

>> Martha MacCallum: "You cannot help but look at the numbers that caused it and the models which were incorrect that really were one of the biggest push points to shut down the United States economy. It is quite possible that you’re going to end up with numbers of fatalities in this Covid-19 tragedy of those that have been affected that will be south of the numbers in the 2018 flu season..."

>> Dinesh D'Souza: "Most people have no idea how way off the #Coronavirus models have been. A nutcase virus denier who predicted ZERO deaths would be closer to the mark (ie to the current 60,000 projection) than the best-case scenarios, taking into account social distancing, of 100-240,000 deaths..."

>> Jim Hoft: "STUNNING! IHME Reduces Their Model Predictions AGAIN! — Now Say Peak Is ON EASTER and Only 60,000 Deaths …Like a Typical Flu!"

200,000 plus  husbands, wife’s, sons, daughters, friends, coworkers...

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POTUS said "virtually nobody" in regards to 200K deaths.  But yeah go ahead and lecture me about being pro life.

 

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Good article on vaccine work....  this is the first time I heard of "event number".    Phase 3 is scheduled to run until each group, vaccinated and placedbo, 151 for one trial, 154 for another, get infected and show symptoms.  FDA approval requires a 50% improvement from vaccinated to placebo.

I found it very informative.  Cool graphs.

Also Johnson and Johnson started their phase 3 today.

https://www.ft.com/content/e5012891-58da-4a4f-8a05-182adf3ba0e2

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23 minutes ago, Oblong said:

POTUS said "virtually nobody" in regards to 200K deaths.  But yeah go ahead and lecture me about being pro life.

POTUS also falsely claimed 200,000 was a best case result.

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On 9/21/2020 at 10:52 PM, pfife said:

Went to depot town yesterday to pick up takeout and mask compliance seemed lower than I'm used to around here

What did you get?

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So, yeah, the lie about kids not getting it is disturbing. Very.

But it looks like nobody even blinks anymore when he dismisses the deaths of “it’s mostly old people with existing conditions”.

Like they don’t matter. Like big deal if they die. Like we should assume they should die. 

Nobody. Says. Anything.... as a response to THOSE utterances.

So, yeah. He’s convinced everyone that they don’t matter. I don’t matter. You don’t matter..... oops... I mean you don’t matter if you’re “old” and/or have pre-existing conditions. Or come from blue states. 

Everyone has now bought into it.

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