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Coronavirus: Coming to a Neighborhood Near You?

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Btw, in case anyone is actually paying attention anymore, over 190,000 are dead. 

And, as opposed to the contention now being preached that this number is inflated, I believe it is vastly undercounted.

But the GOP, led by their abomination of a president, doesn’t even acknowledge the pain that every family out there has lived with, and continues to live with.  We’re dismissed. We’re called names. 

But more to the point, it’s IGNORED 

It is agony. Perpetrated by this beast of a man and his enablers, and now also by people who formerly were our neighbors and fellow citizens.

It is agony. Every day.

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6 minutes ago, smr-nj said:

Btw, in case anyone is actually paying attention anymore, over 190,000 are dead. 

And, as opposed to the contention now being preached that this number is inflated, I believe it is vastly undercounted.

But the GOP, led by their abomination of a president, doesn’t even acknowledge the pain that every family out there has lived with, and continues to live with.  We’re dismissed. We’re called names. 

It is agony. Perpetrated by this beast of a man and his enablers, and now also by people who formerly were our neighbors and fellow citizens.

It is agony. Every day.

It's criminal. All these kids in colleges now going home? Exactly what normal thinking people were afraid of. Just plain stupid.

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23 minutes ago, Oblong said:

It’s simply logistically impossible to have a legit vaccine before mid November be properly vetted.  The phase 3 trials take time.  It’s not paperwork.  You need to get all the samples vaccinated, which we aren’t there yet. You need the virus to work it’s way through that population and the evidence documented and studied and peer reviewed.  Manufacturing can occur in parallel, at a risk of waste, but distribution is also a factor.  One of the candidates has to be stored at -94 F.   That complicates things.  Will it require two doses?  

That's the Pfizer vaccine, and it will require two doses.  So will the Moderna vaccine, which has to be stored at "only" -4°F. I read an article yesterday (can't seem to find it now EDIT: Here it is) that did at least mention that the ultra-low temperature storage requirements were only for longer-term storage (like weeks), and that the vaccines would still be viable for hours at room temperature and a few days in normal refrigeration.

Even if a vaccine were approved by November while somehow not taking shortcuts and skipping critical safety checks, there would still be the issue of getting that much vaccine out to the public.  Aside from the shipping and storage concerns, the sheer number of people who will need to be vaccinated means that once things get underway, it might still be a long time before the average person gets it.  Consider that if a million people can be poked every day in the U.S. alone (which seems like an impossibly high rate), with the two-dose requirement, it would still take two years to fully inoculate the country.

Edited by clark1mt
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Its just one guy from China.  Its all under control.  It will all go away in the heat, just like a miracle.

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54 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I'd have to read the study, but that sounds like a large enough number to strain credulity.

350K attendees. If 3% were positive, thats 10K positive people walking around. If they infected one person every other day, that would be 50K people leaving the rally infected. if each of them infected 5 people over the next month - you get to 250K. 

So I guess I don't find the possibility too out of the ballpark IF you assume these folks are all militant anti-masker, non-compliant types. But sure, it's a big number.

Also, you can really only blame the rally for the difference between 250K and the number that (assumed) non-compliant 10K would have infected anyway had they stayed home. It's a reasonable argument that a carrier will infect a lot more in an environment like Sturgis than they would have at home, but that latter number is probably still not particularly close to zero.

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I need to read the paper, but, yeah, it boils down to the assumptions made in the calculations and how well supported those assumptions are.

It seems like a really high number to me, and that, as you suggest, ignores how many would have gotten anyway without Sturgis.

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WH/Presidential response?

” **** you. We’re not answering anybody’s questions “.

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7 hours ago, ROMAD1 said:

So roughly a net zero sum game for the marches, but a biker rally caused 250k....sure.    I also like that part of the argument in BLM study (the way I choose to read into it) is basically many people were too afraid to venture outside whom would otherwise go out and potentially get Covid, so these protests basically saved their lives.

Not saying Sturgis was smart, but this early after the rally?  I'm not buying it yet.

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That's where I'm at as well.

I struggle with the idea that BLM marches were a zero sum game and Sturgis caused 250k cases.

I'm not saying it isn't possible, and I should dig into the weeds before drawing too many conclusions, but off the cuff that seems less than likely.

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8 hours ago, ROMAD1 said:

Bottom line seems to be that it's pretty hard to catch this from someone out in an open air environment short of the kind of mass packing you might get in a stadium or the like (or maybe packing 350K people into a small town?)

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34 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

So roughly a net zero sum game for the marches, but a biker rally caused 250k....sure.    I also like that part of the argument in BLM study (the way I choose to read into it) is basically many people were too afraid to venture outside whom would otherwise go out and potentially get Covid, so these protests basically saved their lives.

Not saying Sturgis was smart, but this early after the rally?  I'm not buying it yet.

A big difference is that many of those bikers were going inside to eat and drink together

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9 hours ago, ewsieg said:

So roughly a net zero sum game for the marches, but a biker rally caused 250k....sure.    I also like that part of the argument in BLM study (the way I choose to read into it) is basically many people were too afraid to venture outside whom would otherwise go out and potentially get Covid, so these protests basically saved their lives.

Not saying Sturgis was smart, but this early after the rally?  I'm not buying it yet.

 

9 hours ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

That's where I'm at as well.

I struggle with the idea that BLM marches were a zero sum game and Sturgis caused 250k cases.

I'm not saying it isn't possible, and I should dig into the weeds before drawing too many conclusions, but off the cuff that seems less than likely.

Doesn't make much sense to me, either.

Sturgis is a big event, 250K.  Not sure what the size of the other rallies have been, but its tough to think that they were limited enough and/or protocol was completely followed to where there was 0 transmission at all.

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37 minutes ago, Casimir said:

 

Doesn't make much sense to me, either.

Sturgis is a big event, 250K.  Not sure what the size of the other rallies have been, but its tough to think that they were limited enough and/or protocol was completely followed to where there was 0 transmission at all.

It more a question of whether you can see excess transmission over the background level, than whether there was no transmission, which is a slightly different measurement problem.

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6 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

It more a question of whether you can see excess transmission over the background level, than whether there was no transmission, which is a slightly different measurement problem.

The simple fact that none of the protests have sparked any kind of a noted/broadcasted outbreak (any of them, not just BLM) aside from Tulsa and now Sturgis seems suspicious.

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FWIW, I suspect the difference in results was impacted by differing analysis methodologies, but that is a guess.  I have not read the Sturgis paper.

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