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Coronavirus: Coming to a Neighborhood Near You?

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6 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

It's difficult when you keep moving the bar.  I know i'm not crazy here, I'm way to much of a news junkie to have completely missed the understanding of what 'flattening the curve' is.  It never had anything to do with positive case rate or total amount of positive cases or if those cases are going up or down.  If a State can support 50000 covid patients and is dealing with 30000, they (at least at that moment) have flattened the curve.  If a state only have 2001 cases, but can only support 2000, they haven't.  

Also a news junkie... I remember there being multiple reasons for flattening the curve, for what it's worth.

One of them is testing and tracing and using the time that we were all (for the most part) fully locked down to figure out how to implement that.

Not only did we use the time poorly, but our numbers are such where (as G2 has said) it'd be hard to actually run a testing and tracing regime effectively anyway.

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2 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

It's difficult when you keep moving the bar.  I know i'm not crazy here, I'm way to much of a news junkie to have completely missed the understanding of what 'flattening the curve' is.  It never had anything to do with positive case rate or total amount of positive cases or if those cases are going up or down.  If a State can support 50000 covid patients and is dealing with 30000, they (at least at that moment) have flattened the curve.  If a state only have 2001 cases, but can only support 2000, they haven't.  

There still can be cause for concern, and higher daily rates, based on what we've seen in the past, will result in more healthcare capacity used, so the potential is absolutely there that we could no longer have a flattened (under health care capacity) curve in the future.

That said, this board assured me that Whitmer's decisive decision to close bars up north, where 30 of the roughly 5000 new cases in the last week came out of was the right decision and will keep us from unflattening our curve.

Nobody assured you that closing bars would stop hospitalizations. Stop making things up. There will likely be fewer, which is critical right now, but nobody said it will completely stop them. 

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4 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Also a news junkie... I remember there being multiple reasons for flattening the curve, for what it's worth.

One of them is testing and tracing and using the time that we were all (for the most part) fully locked down to figure out how to implement that.

Not only did we use the time poorly, but our numbers are such where (as G2 has said) it'd be hard to actually run a testing and tracing regime effectively anyway.

Definitely know there were many reasons why it was so important to flatten the curve.  But again, I also know the definition of flatten the curve and I'm being told that Michigan hasn't flattened the curve.  By definition we have.  In no way am I saying we're out of the woods, in no way am I saying it means we go back to normal living, just pointing out flattening the curve was the initial goal and we have achieved it in Michigan.  I understand we may need to do things to keep the curve flattened as well.  I personally, without explanation from Whitmer, questioned how much we really needed the Bar closures up north.

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Like arguing with a brick wall. 

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2 minutes ago, Yoda said:

Like arguing with a brick wall. 

I apologize for questioning a democrat on this site.  I'll return to my Trump bashing and we can all get along again.

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3 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

I apologize for questioning a democrat on this site.  I'll return to my Trump bashing and we can all get along again.

Come on.

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2 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

I apologize for questioning a democrat on this site.  I'll return to my Trump bashing and we can all get along again.

People go out of their way to try and explain something to you, for literally hours, then the next day you act like you have no idea why this decision was made, and accuse them of saying something they didn't. Then play the victim game by acting like we get annoyed with you simply "questioning" the governor. Cool. 

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You're not going to get an argument out of me whether it was wise or necessary to reopen Michigan's Casinos at 15%.... the answer is probably not. Criticize away on Whitmer for that one.

Having said this, bars are a tremendous disease vector. From my view in a differing state that is dealing with a big outbreak of the virus, our Republican Governor, for better or worse, specifically singled them out (and the actions of people who visit them) as a major reason why our state has seen a big increase in virus and has closed them in our state.

I understand that the actions seem punitive in nature, but as we have learned more about this virus and have seen the actions of the general public at these establishments, it's clear that they are breeding grounds for infection. And on top of that, given the long periods of asymptomatic inoculation that come with this virus, it's really hard to wait until the problem is more acute to act with this virus because, once the problem is apparent, it's everywhere and is either out of control or on the precipice of such. It's like a frog in a pot of boiling water.

Down here in Texas, we are living that dream now... after weeks of it raging, our case counts are finally starting to tick down, hopefully they will continue to do so, but we are not out of the woods yet.

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25 minutes ago, Yoda said:

People go out of their way to try and explain something to you, for literally hours, then the next day you act like you have no idea why this decision was made, and accuse them of saying something they didn't. Then play the victim game by acting like we get annoyed with you simply "questioning" the governor. Cool. 

**** you.

1) I was told Michigan hasn't flattened the curve, I defined 'flatten the curve'.  You can look it up as well if you wish. Still I get reasons why it's important to flatten, positive rates are going up...etc

2) I questioned two Whitmer decisions.

            a. I admitted I have the benefit of hindsight in terms of how she handled nursing homes.  Still, she's had 4 months to adapt to the fact that we don't have the testing we should have.  I wish she did and that's not her fault, but again, 4.5 months.  

            b. I questioned the decision to close down Bars in a part of our state that appears to be under control based on the numbers I could find.  I got some answers, but no specific evidence.  I absolutely agree that rural areas don't have the hospital capacity as urban areas (funny how you guys understand the definition of flattening the curve here).  30 out of 5000 cases targeted as she eases restrictions in the hardest hit area of the state, but i'm the ******* brick wall.

 

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what is the hospital capacity for COVID patients in the UP?

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i think bars should be shut down nationwide and masks should be mandatory indoors outside of your own home.

seems like a reasonable ask.

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49 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

Definitely know there were many reasons why it was so important to flatten the curve.  But again, I also know the definition of flatten the curve and I'm being told that Michigan hasn't flattened the curve.  By definition we have.  In no way am I saying we're out of the woods, in no way am I saying it means we go back to normal living, just pointing out flattening the curve was the initial goal and we have achieved it in Michigan.  I understand we may need to do things to keep the curve flattened as well.  I personally, without explanation from Whitmer, questioned how much we really needed the Bar closures up north.

The fact is that all  simple paradigms like "flatten the curve" break down pretty quickly for real world data because even at a state level, where most tracking is done, we are not talking about one population, but dozens of different population cells with varying levels of isolation or communication with each other. On one hand, we were clearly TOO LATE to flatten the curve in Detroit. Hospital capacity was overrun there and the fact the epidemic was eventually brought into better control does not change the fact the 'the flatten the curve' objective of keeping hospitals from being over stressed was NOT achieved in Detroit. Again, there was a local situation in Kent county that reached the point of threatening capacity there. On the other hand, on a state wide basis we have never come close to overrunning total bed capacity. But that is hardly meaningful. There is no single result definable for anything as large and heterogeneous as the state of Michigan, or probably any other US state. 

Even California, which is still at one of the lowest fatality rates of any major state, failed to flatten the curve within its prison population and the prison medical system, which is effectively a separate epidemiological subset, while on the other hand, LA county, which has an extremely high - basically out of control case rate of 33 cases per day per 100k right now, is not overrunning their hospital capacity, partly because they are being blessed with relatively low virulence so far (population density factors again?), but also not the least in part because they have a lot of hospital capacity. Yet the infection is out of control there none-the-less. So what practical value is the consideration of how flat their hospital utilization curve is?

So I would not make too much intellectual investment in simple conceptual models of idealized data used primarily for explanatory purposes when it comes to assessing the complexity of data from the real world.

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2 minutes ago, pfife said:

what is the hospital capacity for COVID patients in the UP?

I may have missed some counties, but the bed totals (not specific to Covid) I could find for region 7 and 8 were

ICU 277 - 166 used

Beds 1715 - 1566 used

Without breaking the data down further, ICU percentage was slightly better than the state, Bed percentage was slightly worse than the state.

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5 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

**** you.

 

 

Cool bro. 

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5 minutes ago, Buddha said:

i think bars should be shut down nationwide and masks should be mandatory indoors outside of your own home.

seems like a reasonable ask.

HOW ******* DARE YOU I DONT UNDERSTAND WHY MICHIGAN GOV SUX

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3 minutes ago, Buddha said:

i think bars should be shut down nationwide and masks should be mandatory indoors outside of your own home.

seems like a reasonable ask.

completely reasonable

might not happen until Jan/Feb 2021

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57 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

It's difficult when you keep moving the bar.  I know i'm not crazy here, I'm way to much of a news junkie to have completely missed the understanding of what 'flattening the curve' is.  It never had anything to do with positive case rate or total amount of positive cases or if those cases are going up or down.  If a State can support 50000 covid patients and is dealing with 30000, they (at least at that moment) have flattened the curve.  If a state only have 2001 cases, but can only support 2000, they haven't.  

There still can be cause for concern, and higher daily rates, based on what we've seen in the past, will result in more healthcare capacity used, so the potential is absolutely there that we could no longer have a flattened (under health care capacity) curve in the future.

That said, this board assured me that Whitmer's decisive decision to close bars up north, where 30 of the roughly 5000 new cases in the last week came out of was the right decision and will keep us from unflattening our curve.

When exactly did I move the bar?

And I guess I must be crazy.

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It's not just hospital capacity, but ICU capacity. These small town hospitals can't handle Coronavirus cases. We were at Higgins Lake when my dad had a heart attack. He was taken to Grayling Hospital some 20 miles away. They didn't even have a cardiologist on call. Best they can do was hope he didn't die. Had to transport him by ambulance to Traverse City in December during a blizzard. No way Grayling Hospital is going to be able to treat COVID patients. It can be more devastating for small towns. Also keep in mind the bars up north are supported by people from the Detroit area so you will have Detroiters going up there and giving the virus to these small town people who don't have the capacity to deal with it. It's not like the bars in the Detroit area are open. Plus, the casinos up north in Traverse City, Petoskey, etc get to open up as well.  

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4 minutes ago, Buddha said:

i think bars should be shut down nationwide and masks should be mandatory indoors outside of your own home.

seems like a reasonable ask.

Agree, although how do you cut the line of bars vs bar/restaurants?

I think I might take it a step further with shutting down indoor dining, although would understand if reduced capacities are deemed acceptable by the CDC.

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10 minutes ago, ewsieg said:

**** you.

1) I was told Michigan hasn't flattened the curve, I defined 'flatten the curve'.  You can look it up as well if you wish. Still I get reasons why it's important to flatten, positive rates are going up...etc

2) I questioned two Whitmer decisions.

            a. I admitted I have the benefit of hindsight in terms of how she handled nursing homes.  Still, she's had 4 months to adapt to the fact that we don't have the testing we should have.  I wish she did and that's not her fault, but again, 4.5 months.  

            b. I questioned the decision to close down Bars in a part of our state that appears to be under control based on the numbers I could find.  I got some answers, but no specific evidence.  I absolutely agree that rural areas don't have the hospital capacity as urban areas (funny how you guys understand the definition of flattening the curve here).  30 out of 5000 cases as she eases restrictions in the hardest hit area of the state, but i'm the ******* brick wall.

 

For what it's worth, up in God's Country (ie. Houghton County), to the extent there is virus, the bars up there have been a pretty big vector for virus to date:

https://www.mininggazette.com/news/business/2020/07/potential-covid-19-site-exposures-for-houghton-county/

Quote

HOUGHTON COUNTY- The Western Upper Peninsula Health Department (WUPHD) has identified sites visited by individuals who later tested positive for COVID-19. Local residents visiting these sites may be at a higher risk for exposure if larger crowds were present and masking and social distancing guidelines were not consistently followed. These sites are:

— Keweenaw Brewing Company, 408 Sheldon Ave, Houghton, MI, on June 26 through June 29

— Downtowner Lounge, 100 Sheldon Ave, Houghton, MI, on June 27

— Mosquito Inn, 39959 M-26, Toivola, MI, on June 27

— Agate Beach Campground, M-26, Toivola, MI, on June 27

— Twin Lakes State Park, M-26, Toivola, MI on June 27 through June 29

— Applebees, 980 Razorback Drive, Houghton, MI on June 28, from 3:30 p.m. to 4:30 p.m.

— Portage Golf Course, 46789 US-41, Houghton, MI, on June 28 and June 29.

5 out of 7 are bars or serve alcohol on premises.

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According to this site, region 8 has 28 unoccupied ICU beds and 87 available ventilators:

https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98159-523641--,00.html

I don't know if this means the curve is flattened in the UP, but it seems quite reasonable that it could easily get out of what hospitals in Region 8 can handle, even using the 30 cases number we've been using.

However, when I hover over counties in the UP in this map, many counties have over 30 cases by themselves, so IDK where this 30 number is coming from:

https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163_98173---,00.html

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1 minute ago, Casimir said:

Agree, although how do you cut the line of bars vs bar/restaurants?

I think I might take it a step further with shutting down indoor dining, although would understand if reduced capacities are deemed acceptable by the CDC.

probably.  

i wonder how much money restaurants are making with carry out only?  especially the high end places?

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