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Coronavirus: Coming to a Neighborhood Near You?

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1 hour ago, Motown Bombers said:

 

These numbers are staggering. 53,000 new cases today 

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...... but, but VP said there’s just a few embers.... 🤔. And POTUS said it was disappearing...... 🤔

 

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2 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

we went for a hike through some park/rec areas today and saw substantial numbers of young people in groups of 8 to 10, no masks or distancing. I guess if you are a teacher at this point the best thing you can hope for is that by fall all your students are over it.....

same thing here.  while outside, not as many people wearing masks.

i mean, its not like theyre at mass protests against police where the virus is scientifically incapable of spreading. /sarcasm

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1 hour ago, smr-nj said:

352FAFD2-8A3D-46C6-9160-718F93FE8BA5.png

Maybe this is essentially COVID 101 by now, but I'm not clear on why the infection rate of no mask-to-mask is high, but the infection rate of mask-to-no mask is low? Does it have to do with distance of aerosolization? Like a mask can prevent that, but a mask can't prevent the virus from getting through?

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43 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Maybe this is essentially COVID 101 by now, but I'm not clear on why the infection rate of no mask-to-mask is high, but the infection rate of mask-to-no mask is low? Does it have to do with distance of aerosolization? Like a mask can prevent that, but a mask can't prevent the virus from getting through?

because a surgical or cloth mask does not filter the air you intake much - it's not fine enough to stop already aerosolized droplets with good efficiency, but you are exactly correct that it prevents you from aerosolizing your exhalations (slows them down -effectively knocks them down much like a muffler quiets a car). So again, in simple terms, a cloth mask worn by *you* protects other people from *you*. Thus if everyone wears one, all are protected together from each other.

To be protected to any great degree from other people *you* would have to be wearing an N95  (one without a vent valve) at minimum or a respirator and it would need to fit well ("fit" is not very critical with a cloth mask) From a public health standpoint that would be fine, but it's unnecessary because if other people would use cloth masks, you don't need the N95.

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2 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

because a surgical or cloth mask does not filter the air you intake much - it's not fine enough to stop already aerosolized droplets with good efficiency, but you are exactly correct that it prevents you from aerosolizing your exhalations (slows them down -effectively knocks them down much like a muffler quiets a car). So again, in simple terms, a cloth mask worn by *you* protects other people from *you*. Thus if everyone wears one, all are protected together from each other.

To be protected to any great degree from other people *you* would have to be wearing an N95  (one without a vent valve) at minimum or a respirator and it would need to fit well ("fit" is not very critical with a cloth mask) From a public health standpoint that would be fine, but it's unnecessary because if other people would use cloth masks, you don't need the N95.

Yeah. What G2 said.  😁. That’s why, Chas. 😎

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2 hours ago, Gehringer_2 said:

because a surgical or cloth mask does not filter the air you intake much - it's not fine enough to stop already aerosolized droplets with good efficiency, but you are exactly correct that it prevents you from aerosolizing your exhalations (slows them down -effectively knocks them down much like a muffler quiets a car). So again, in simple terms, a cloth mask worn by *you* protects other people from *you*. Thus if everyone wears one, all are protected together from each other.

To be protected to any great degree from other people *you* would have to be wearing an N95  (one without a vent valve) at minimum or a respirator and it would need to fit well ("fit" is not very critical with a cloth mask) From a public health standpoint that would be fine, but it's unnecessary because if other people would use cloth masks, you don't need the N95.

OK, thanks, that makes scientific sense. Here's a follow-up question: suppose I go into a room filled with people. I'm the only one with a mask on. I believe it's been established that COVID can infect through air that gets recirculated through a building's ventilation system. If this turns out to be a super spreader event, is my mask not going to help me much? Is my only real recourse to get the h*** out of there? Setting aside time considerations, is wearing a mask indoors effective only if everyone else is wearing a mask as well?

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39 minutes ago, chasfh said:

OK, thanks, that makes scientific sense. Here's a follow-up question: suppose I go into a room filled with people. I'm the only one with a mask on. I believe it's been established that COVID can infect through air that gets recirculated through a building's ventilation system. If this turns out to be a super spreader event, is my mask not going to help me much? Is my only real recourse to get the h*** out of there? Setting aside time considerations, is wearing a mask indoors effective only if everyone else is wearing a mask as well?

Run. Fast.

70% infection possible. 

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The fact that this is apparently unclear is a huge failing in our country’s response. 

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18 minutes ago, smr-nj said:

02ADC0F1-062B-47B8-9AF1-BBFAFE0A0BA3.png

well, qualitatively this is fine. I don't like the % specifications since they are pure fantasy. Nobody really has clue at that level of detail, and of course the exact nature of the mask being worn is not specified which can make a lot of difference. Even after a rigorous experimental program the best you could do is specify a fairly wide probability *range*, there are just too many uncontrolled variables in any such exposure event to pin a single number on it.

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10 hours ago, Oblong said:

I'd like to know the name of that group

Michigan United for Liberty

 

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Yeah... is the infected person sneezing?  Are they bouncing around the area going from person to person?  You look at what happened at Harper’s in East Lansing but that place was packed and people were dancing.  But we haven’t heard much else like that.  I’d think we would from restaurants by now.   Generally I would avoid any indoor gatherings of more than a few people.   I’ve been to friends on their patios. I hung out in someone’s kitchen for a few minutes talking to people. 

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I had my first pro haircut since March today, same neighbourhood shop as the last few years.  They opened on Monday, by appointment only, so I phoned on Tuesday and booked for 10 AM this morning.  There is a sign on the door that says one customer at a time.  When I went in, Erik the White guy was there but not G-Dub the Black guy (Gregory Williams).  I didn't ask if G-Dub is coming back, but he might not have to.  I always had the feeling that every Black parent within 25 miles was bringing their 12-year-old son in there, because G-Dub is the only guy around who can do the cut and the razor work.  He might have discovered during the last 3 months that he can make a good living making housecalls.

Erik was wearing a mask, so was I.  I asked him if he wanted mine on or off.  He said it was up to me, but we were probably OK with mine off if he stayed behind me, and he'd do a better job around the ears with mine off.  So I removed it.

My haircut is pretty simple, it takes 10 minutes.  #2 on the sides, #5 on the top.  Remember Perry White's haircut in the Superman comics?  That one.  Erik has raised his price, understandably - it used to be $25, now it's $30.  So I have him $60 and said "there's 30 for the one that I missed", plus another $5 for today.

I was very happy that he was back, and I think he was happy to see me.

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1 hour ago, Gehringer_2 said:

well, qualitatively this is fine. I don't like the % specifications since they are pure fantasy. Nobody really has clue at that level of detail, and of course the exact nature of the mask being worn is not specified which can make a lot of difference. Even after a rigorous experimental program the best you could do is specify a fairly wide probability *range*, there are just too many uncontrolled variables in any such exposure event to pin a single number on it.

If it gets people to reconsider, who cares. 

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7 minutes ago, Yoda said:

If it gets people to reconsider, who cares. 

that's true, but overselling is also something that undercuts credibility. When someone else proves some overqualified number is false, it provides people the excuse to disregard everything they hear an 'expert' say.  This case isn't a hill I would die on but it's one of those "it's the principle of the thing" things. :wink:

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8 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

that's true, but overselling is also something that undercuts credibility. When someone else proves some overqualified number is false, it provides people the excuse to disregard everything they hear an 'expert' say.  This case isn't a hill I would die on but it's one of those "it's the principle of the thing" things. :wink:

You could do a *plus or minus 10% at the bottom but that just muddies it up. It's likely not something that's going to be proven wrong during the pandemic so keep it simple. 

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5 hours ago, Shelton said:

The fact that this is apparently unclear is a huge failing in our country’s response. 

Family wedding later this month still going forward. Zero COVID mitigation. I have been begging and pleading with my parents not to go. 100 or so people expected. "We will wear a mask. It's fine."

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Interesting study. They're claiming the new strain (G614) is "3 to 9 times more infectious" than the older strain (D614) due to the fact that it's more likely to target the upper-respiratory area (nose, sinus, throat) than the lungs. That makes it spread faster.

They also found that it isn't any more dangerous. That makes sense as attacking the lungs is what killed most people early on.

That might explain why the death numbers still aren't rising. If this continues to be the case, this virus got a whole lot less scary. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/02/health/coronavirus-mutation-spread-study/index.html

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Less scary? Equally dangerous and more contagious is more scary.

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3 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

Less scary? Equally dangerous and more contagious is more scary.

Again, if the death numbers continue to go down and not increase. I would much prefer 9x more infectious with fewer people dying than what we had in April. 

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