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Coronavirus: Coming to a Neighborhood Near You?

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Where I work, we have virtual meetings just to socialize. If I didn't want to socialize with you at the office, what makes you think I do now?

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On 5/25/2020 at 10:40 AM, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I have been looking at the hospitalization data in Michigan over time since data first started to be collected, which was April 16.

Eyeballing the data, the number of people hospitalized has halved between 17 - 19 days pretty consistently.  Meaning on a given date, there were twice as many people hospitalized than there were 18 days later.  In fact, we have 36 days of data, and yesterday we had 953 people hospitalized whereas 36 days before we had 3,674 people hospitalized, which is 26%, almost exactly 1/4 (i.e. halving two times).

I am calling this number (18) the Oblong number, or more colloquially, an Oblong, given he proposed this metric (number hospitalized) many pages back.

Extending the stay at home orders another two weeks to mid-June will essentially give Michigan a little more than another Oblong to halve the number of hospitalized yet again.

If i didn't know better / had to guess, Whitmer's metric is trying to get the number hospitalized down to the 10% range of where it was at in mid-April. 

My wife is weird in that she's happy to be back working on ICU, but it also means COVID patients.... she likes ICU because she developed a treatment program there over the last few years so it's her 'baby' so to speak.  During staff reshuffling and furloughs she got moved to rehab since she's part time and they wanted consistency.   Her hospital system, the 2nd largest I think in the area after Beaumont, is under 1000 total COVID patients.

Once we opened up what we have along with some auto plants, mid June's "Oblong number" should give us a good base and confidence to predict how this will play out over the summer.

I dont like saying I'm optimistic because then I'll jinx it as I'm always wrong on predictions.   

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

If it continues to drop after things open up at something even close to the same rate is a huge win.

Totally agree. It would be like seeing the sun after 3 days of rain.

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3 hours ago, Oblong said:

we are switching exclusively to Teams next week... not looking forward to it.  We've had it installed for a few years and never used it.  But next week Skype is gone...

always something new to learn.  I hate it.

But if it cuts down on meetings for awhile because some people will not be bothered to figure it out then I am all for it.  And I suspect a few recurring meetings will get lost in the shuffle as the host won't even realize it's gone.

We switched over from Skype to Teams a few weeks ago. I like Teams better. Functionality seems better. 

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Correction on my previous post.  98 total COVID patients total over 5 hospitals in my wife’s system.  I put too many zeroes.  
 

 

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24 minutes ago, tigerbomb13 said:

We switched over from Skype to Teams a few weeks ago. I like Teams better. Functionality seems better. 

we are deep into platform overload. Google groups/meeting, Zoom, Bluejeans, Slack, Piazza and a couple more I can't name off the top of my head.

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Haven't known him to be a bull****ter heretofore

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3 hours ago, Deleterious said:

A number of states enacted this rule.  I do not believe many in leadership in this country understand the reality of elder care.  Or they don’t care. 

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1 hour ago, pfife said:

Haven't known him to be a bull****ter heretofore

this will be explosive/seismic/apocalyptic if proved out.. Desantis will have kissed  both the FL GOP and Trump goodbye.

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7 hours ago, pfife said:

Haven't known him to be a bull****ter heretofore

His source is reddit. Somebody blue checkmarked in the thread refutes the numbers.

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26 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

His source is reddit. Somebody blue checkmarked in the thread refutes the numbers.

Thanks, this doesn't seem very on character for slavitt 

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Michigan's rollling 7 day average has been under 400 for the past 4 days.   May 1 it was 842.  Now it is 387.  I don't have testing #s to know if we've also increased testing much over the month.

Another thing I do and maybe it's not accurate, is subtract the # infected more than 30 days ago from the total infected to try to give a "currently infected" #.  I have heard they assume someone cured once it's 30 days after a positive test and they are still alive... so I take the # infected on April 29 of 40,399 and subtract that from today's total infeted of 56,621.   Today's "currently infected" is 15, 242, down from 20,000 10 days ago.  

 

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So... I get the feeling, just from chatting with a sample of people who are disregarding stay at home recommendations, that there are more than just a few people out there who think they are protected from this thing by faith.

That is unfortunate and I have no way of knowing how to convince people it is without insulting them and turning them away.

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12 minutes ago, Oblong said:

Michigan's rollling 7 day average has been under 400 for the past 4 days.   May 1 it was 842.  Now it is 387.  I don't have testing #s to know if we've also increased testing much over the month.

Another thing I do and maybe it's not accurate, is subtract the # infected more than 30 days ago from the total infected to try to give a "currently infected" #.  I have heard they assume someone cured once it's 30 days after a positive test and they are still alive... so I take the # infected on April 29 of 40,399 and subtract that from today's total infeted of 56,621.   Today's "currently infected" is 15, 242, down from 20,000 10 days ago.  

 

Here are the MI testing totals (not including antibody testing):

Quote
State of Michigan
Date Positive Diagnostic Tests Negative Diagnostic Tests Total Diagnostic Tests % Positive Diagnostic Tests Cumulative % Positive Diagnostic Tests
3/10/2020 2 1 3 66.7% 66.7%
3/11/2020 0 1 1 0.0% 50.0%
3/12/2020 11 13 24 45.8% 46.4%
3/13/2020 13 8 21 61.9% 53.1%
3/14/2020 9 18 27 33.3% 46.1%
3/15/2020 21 12 33 63.6% 51.4%
3/16/2020 16 140 156 10.3% 27.2%
3/17/2020 149 685 834 17.9% 20.1%
3/18/2020 153 598 751 20.4% 20.2%
3/19/2020 165 573 738 22.4% 20.8%
3/20/2020 264 987 1,251 21.1% 20.9%
3/21/2020 313 1,045 1,358 23.0% 21.5%
3/22/2020 315 705 1,020 30.9% 23.0%
3/23/2020 397 1,056 1,453 27.3% 23.8%
3/24/2020 538 1,141 1,679 32.0% 25.3%
3/25/2020 573 1,852 2,425 23.6% 25.0%
3/26/2020 927 2,887 3,814 24.3% 24.8%
3/27/2020 1,087 2,366 3,453 31.5% 26.0%
3/28/2020 895 1,588 2,483 36.0% 27.2%
3/29/2020 873 1,506 2,379 36.7% 28.1%
3/30/2020 1,777 5,530 7,307 24.3% 27.2%
3/31/2020 1,581 2,826 4,407 35.9% 28.3%
4/1/2020 2,250 3,280 5,530 40.7% 30.0%
4/2/2020 2,091 3,168 5,259 39.8% 31.1%
4/3/2020 2,161 3,328 5,489 39.4% 32.0%
4/4/2020 2,692 3,740 6,432 41.9% 33.0%
4/5/2020 1,892 2,938 4,830 39.2% 33.5%
4/6/2020 1,982 2,817 4,799 41.3% 34.1%
4/7/2020 1,476 2,643 4,119 35.8% 34.2%
4/8/2020 975 2,365 3,340 29.2% 33.9%
4/9/2020 1,273 2,849 4,122 30.9% 33.8%
4/10/2020 1,248 2,828 4,076 30.6% 33.6%
4/11/2020 953 2,235 3,188 29.9% 33.5%
4/12/2020 961 2,275 3,236 29.7% 33.4%
4/13/2020 1,031 2,405 3,436 30.0% 33.2%
4/14/2020 1,219 3,253 4,472 27.3% 33.0%
4/15/2020 1,281 2,797 4,078 31.4% 32.9%
4/16/2020 1,087 4,083 5,170 21.0% 32.3%
4/17/2020 950 4,569 5,519 17.2% 31.6%
4/18/2020 951 3,586 4,537 21.0% 31.2%
4/19/2020 592 2,521 3,113 19.0% 30.9%
4/20/2020 846 3,330 4,176 20.3% 30.5%
4/21/2020 1,223 5,742 6,965 17.6% 29.8%
4/22/2020 1,247 6,226 7,473 16.7% 29.1%
4/23/2020 1,242 7,499 8,741 14.2% 28.2%
4/24/2020 947 6,751 7,698 12.3% 27.4%
4/25/2020 802 5,488 6,290 12.8% 26.9%
4/26/2020 599 5,126 5,725 10.5% 26.3%
4/27/2020 776 5,695 6,471 12.0% 25.8%
4/28/2020 985 6,953 7,938 12.4% 25.2%
4/29/2020 1,093 8,451 9,544 11.5% 24.5%
4/30/2020 1,014 9,459 10,473 9.7% 23.7%
5/1/2020 980 8,888 9,868 9.9% 23.1%
5/2/2020 837 8,861 9,698 8.6% 22.5%
5/3/2020 556 6,396 6,952 8.0% 22.0%
5/4/2020 528 6,468 6,996 7.5% 21.6%
5/5/2020 853 9,339 10,192 8.4% 21.0%
5/6/2020 891 10,436 11,327 7.9% 20.5%
5/7/2020 834 10,244 11,078 7.5% 19.9%
5/8/2020 739 10,690 11,429 6.5% 19.4%
5/9/2020 692 10,146 10,838 6.4% 18.9%
5/10/2020 495 7,953 8,448 5.9% 18.5%
5/11/2020 584 10,031 10,615 5.5% 18.1%
5/12/2020 601 12,428 13,029 4.6% 17.5%
5/13/2020 987 17,707 18,694 5.3% 16.9%
5/14/2020 1,239 15,803 17,042 7.3% 16.4%
5/15/2020 762 13,487 14,249 5.3% 16.0%
5/16/2020 794 10,241 11,035 7.2% 15.7%
5/17/2020 1,036 10,097 11,133 9.3% 15.5%
5/18/2020 907 11,621 12,528 7.2% 15.3%
5/19/2020 912 14,983 15,895 5.7% 14.9%
5/20/2020 668 12,462 13,130 5.1% 14.6%
5/21/2020 694 14,541 15,235 4.6% 14.3%
5/22/2020 804 18,439 19,243 4.2% 13.9%
5/23/2020 571 13,426 13,997 4.1% 13.6%
5/24/2020 386 11,138 11,524 3.3% 13.4%
5/25/2020 316 8,889 9,205 3.4% 13.2%
5/26/2020 360 9,794 10,154 3.5% 13.0%
5/27/2020 859 16,540 17,399 4.9% 12.7%

 

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Man, and here I am a bit concerned that Jacksonville's % positive in the last week is approaching 3%.

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21 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

So... I get the feeling, just from chatting with a sample of people who are disregarding stay at home recommendations, that there are more than just a few people out there who think they are protected from this thing by faith.

That is unfortunate and I have no way of knowing how to convince people it is without insulting them and turning them away.

I guess I don't get any Christian thinking faith is a get out of jail free card when it comes to possible death since it is a religion founded by a martyr and that has been celebrating additional multitudes of its martyrs since its founding. A believer may find any number of reasons for faith, but idea that it's going to have anything to do with you living a day longer in this vale than your allotted time because of it seems oddly out of touch with its core history and teaching.

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MI is doing OK, though we have to hope that higher case numbers 3 of the last 4 days is just noise, and MDPH Region 6 (GR area) is still not trending down.

But nationwide, RT.LIVE estimates 11 states with R >1 incl TX, and CA with no margin for error at 0.96. It's been 2 1/2 weeks that daily national cases have been stuck pretty stubbornly at 20K. 

To be honest, my hope a few weeks ago that we might actually completely contain it is pretty much gone. Probably just euphoria over breaking the exponential phase. I'm back at my original take, that it's just going to seep through the population until there is a vaccine and in the absence of  a vaccine keep killing people until there a treatment - i.e. just the orginal flatten the curve.

Internationally Russia, India, and Latin American are all looking very depressing. Unless China is lying through it's teeth, (which is possible but seems  unlikely given how many Americans are in day to day contact with people all over China) it appears that East Asia is the only place that is capable of dealing with infectious disease.

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On 5/28/2020 at 10:36 AM, Oblong said:

well that should help with production and supply issues....

 

I don't blame people. A rushed vaccine? That sounds scary.

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Yeah, I'll need more reassurances that it wasn't rushed. Same reason I haven't rushed to get an antibody test.

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4 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

I don't blame people. A rushed vaccine? That sounds scary.

Isn’t this how most zombie apocalypse movies start.

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