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Coronavirus: Coming to a Neighborhood Near You?

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2 minutes ago, Buddha said:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/05/20/coronavirus-pandemic-good-news-271988

we interrupt your regularly scheduled freak out to let you know there is plenty of good news out there re coronavirus.

dont worry!  none of it is because of president trump.

Its not so much lack of good news, but that good news remains mostly local. The death rate across the country as a whole is coming down stubbornly slowly.

OTOH, there is going to be continuing frustrating/bad news about how much less severe things could have been as more emerges about how badly the government has performed/is performing.

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29 minutes ago, Buddha said:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/05/20/coronavirus-pandemic-good-news-271988

we interrupt your regularly scheduled freak out to let you know there is plenty of good news out there re coronavirus.

dont worry!  none of it is because of president trump.

Rich Lowry is editor of National Review and a contributing editor with Politico Magazine.

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17 minutes ago, chasfh said:

Rich Lowry is editor of National Review and a contributing editor with Politico Magazine.

oh no.

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2 hours ago, mtutiger said:

Noted Epidemiologist Ben Shapiro weighs in on Sweden's strategy...

In fairness to Ben, he is noted in incomplete reporting and could be the foremost expert on dishonesty. 

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On a more serious note, I love this young man, who every night plays Taps in front of the Veterans Home in Paramus NJ, where, to date, over 70 have died from the virus, my father being one of them.

 I will be forever grateful for his initiative in honoring the memories of these men and women, especially since none of us who lost family there were able to be with them, but also lifting the spirits of the veterans still at the home, who can hear him every night, and know they are not being forgotten.

Thank you, Alex Saldana. 

3FB51912-F308-45B0-9CC2-2D625E81D02E.jpeg

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Welp, my volleyball league is starting up.

Given that I have had to forfeit playoff games because i refused to play during a lightning storm, i feel like i shouldn't be surprised.

 

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On 5/18/2020 at 4:01 PM, Shelton said:

Here is the rt.live graph as of now:

Rate has basically been constant for a month now. It makes sense in that it takes 2-3 weeks for the staying at home to have an effect. 
 

 

86907D8B-D303-49FD-89DE-DC50FEF6D6AE.jpeg

It looks like they have recalculated values and MI's Rt is 0.90.

https://rt.live/

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The difference between a Rt of 0.8 and 0.9 is that it will take 10 viral life cycles to burn itself out whereas at 0.8 you only need 5 life cycles.

It is a big difference, unfortunately.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

The difference between a Rt of 0.8 and 0.9 is that it will take 10 viral life cycles to burn itself out whereas at 0.8 you only need 5 life cycles.

It is a big difference, unfortunately.

I was wondering about that....

and really when you get to .9.... it's really not progress.  Sure it's better than >1 but still a long ways away.

My hope is that as the average daily numbers continue to at least stay flat and with people going outside more and at least more aware of masks, etc. that the number will go down.  The more I read on this it really appears that it's sustained indoor contact with an infected person that leads to this.  The article I shared earlier highlighted how it's not everyone infecting others but a handful infecting many people.  Condition people to not go to too many places.  With no need for large gatherings we should still see numbers go down.

 

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28 minutes ago, CMRivdog said:

 

This is likely headed to the U.S. Supreme Court, where it will decide if a governor has the constitutional right to have unilateral power in perpetuity via a state of emergency without seeking extension approvals from the legislative branch.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

The difference between a Rt of 0.8 and 0.9 is that it will take 10 viral life cycles to burn itself out whereas at 0.8 you only need 5 life cycles.

It is a big difference, unfortunately.

just by a very quick eye-balling, I counted 16 state plots on the RT site where R values are currently increasing. Part of that is almost certainly imperfect correction for testing rates, but not likely all of it.

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As I understand it, a lot of states do not require what Michigan requires in terms of coming back to the legislature for approval of states of emergency. Because administration of such is basically dependent on constitution of the given state and what they say.

So I'm not sure that there's much of a chance of it heading to the Supreme Court or there being a whole lot of success should it do so.

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A lot of traffic heading up north today. Things were really busy in town too.

We're in Harrison which remains closed but we will shoot up to Houghton Lake tomorrow and they are in one of the open zones. Hopefully we can find a restaurant that isn't too busy.

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16 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

As I understand it, a lot of states do not require what Michigan requires in terms of coming back to the legislature for approval of states of emergency. Because administration of such is basically dependent on constitution of the given state and what they say.

So I'm not sure that there's much of a chance of it heading to the Supreme Court or there being a whole lot of success should it do so.

For good or ill, this court has not been in any hurry to inject itself into state constitution interpretation. While it's always dangerous to second guess our nine robed Robespierres I tend to think the litigants would need a stronger set of facts (a clearer Federal or constitutional issue) to persuade SCOTUS to hear it.

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1 minute ago, Deleterious said:

A lot of traffic heading up north today. Things were really busy in town too.

We're in Harrison which remains closed but we will shoot up to Houghton Lake tomorrow and they are in one of the open zones. Hopefully we can find a restaurant that isn't too busy.

Wouldn't count on it. My parents own a place near Houghton Lake. Everything in that God forsaken town was closing long before COVID. 

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If our numbers look good in 3-4 weeks I will be very encouraged.  This weekend along with plants opening and easing of restrictions will be a good stress test.  

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15 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

For good or ill, this court has not been in any hurry to inject itself into state constitution interpretation. While it's always dangerous to second guess our nine robed Robespierres I tend to think the litigants would need a stronger set of facts (a clearer Federal or constitutional issue) to persuade SCOTUS to hear it.

nine robed robespierres!  

that sounds like a verse in the french version of the twelve days of christmas.

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that's going to be my next fantasy baseball team name...

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7 minutes ago, Gehringer_2 said:

just by a very quick eye-balling, I counted 16 state plots on the RT site where R values are currently increasing. Part of that is almost certainly imperfect correction for testing rates, but not likely all of it.

I think I’m just happy to see that it is staying below 1 in most places. Obviously the fact that everyone is staying home helps that, and that’s not going to last. But I think the biggest danger is still the mass gathering type events where one person can infect a dozen in one sitting. The surge of cases we saw over the past 8-10 weeks occurred before people were hyper aware of it being around and before we stopped cramming a bunch of people into tight spaces and shouting. 
 

It’s not going away any time soon. But if only 9 out 10 infected people infect another person, that is pretty manageable. Even with people going to work and going to shops, and even going to a restaurant and staying distanced from other diners, an infected person hopefully won’t do much damage. Obviously there will be some infected people that are careless and get close to multiple people and pass it to more than one person  but that is hopefully counteracted by the people that get it and pass it on to no one because they are being cautious.

I wonder what the actual risk is for someone that is being hyper aware and careful. For instance, if you put on your mask and don’t linger nearby anyone, only passing on a sidewalk or in a hallway, not sitting near other people at work, how likely are you to catch it even assuming some of these other people have it?


Long story short, even with things re-opening, the behavior of the general public has been changed substantially, and I don’t think the danger of a second surge is especially high. 
 
That said, I don’t know ****. 

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