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Coronavirus: Coming to a Neighborhood Near You?

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21 minutes ago, jaymo said:

Should we organize a road trip to go watch a movie in an open Georgia theater?

Or a massage? 

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5 minutes ago, Edman85 said:

2020-04-20.jpg

I don't blame him. I blame the jerkoff telling him it was a hoax. 

But still funny. 

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22 minutes ago, six-hopper said:

They're not going broke.  There have been about 42,000 deaths attributed to the coronavirus in this country.  And that is probably overstated in the sense of those being "extra" deaths, because many of the deceased were elderly with other serious medical conditions, and some doctors have said that they have been instructed to be overinclusive in listing COVID-19 as the cause of death.

But even if the entire 42,000 are really coronavirus deaths, before this outbreak an average of almost 8000 people died every day in this country -- about 2.7 or 2.8 million a year.  So the 42,000 represents, at most, five or six days' worth of extra deaths.  A terrible number,  to be sure, but not likely anywhere near enough to bankrupt life insurance companies.

I wonder if there is an exclusion for a pandemic though? I know I saw, in the fine print of a life insurance policy, civil uprisings or terrorist attacks were exclusions. As are wars or death in the act of a felony.

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6 minutes ago, Yoda said:

I don't blame him. I blame the jerkoff telling him it was a hoax. 

But still funny. 

Problem is he is likely the jerkoff that led other people to the same fate.

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28 minutes ago, six-hopper said:

They're not going broke.  There have been about 42,000 deaths attributed to the coronavirus in this country.  And that is probably overstated in the sense of those being "extra" deaths, because many of the deceased were elderly with other serious medical conditions, and some doctors have said that they have been instructed to be overinclusive in listing COVID-19 as the cause of death.

But even if the entire 42,000 are really coronavirus deaths, before this outbreak an average of almost 8000 people died every day in this country -- about 2.7 or 2.8 million a year.  So the 42,000 represents, at most, five or six days' worth of extra deaths.  A terrible number,  to be sure, but not likely anywhere near enough to bankrupt life insurance companies.

Given my experience working with death data, I would bet that the current count is an under count.  There is always a lag in reporting deaths.  Also, some people die without ever being tested, so it wouldn't be counted as a Covid death.  There are more reasons for false negatives, than false positives.  I don't believe there is some internal conspiracy going on to pump up the COVID death count.   

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9 minutes ago, Yoda said:

I don't blame him. I blame the jerkoff telling him it was a hoax. 

But still funny. 

I don't know about funny but it maybe, hopefully, it will remind people that there are such things as realities that can't be denied. We are so used to ignoring or denying or spinning away without consequence any information we don't like -- but nature just don't care. It will crush you without a thought at pretty much any time, but your odds improve tremendously if you are willing to pay attention to what nature is willing to let you learn about the rules of the game.

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33 minutes ago, mtutiger said:

Bipartisan trashing today

Maryland is a blue state Trump has no chance of winning so Hogan is basically a liberal to Trump. 

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2 hours ago, six-hopper said:

They're not going broke.  There have been about 42,000 deaths attributed to the coronavirus in this country.  And that is probably overstated in the sense of those being "extra" deaths, because many of the deceased were elderly with other serious medical conditions, and some doctors have said that they have been instructed to be overinclusive in listing COVID-19 as the cause of death.

But even if the entire 42,000 are really coronavirus deaths, before this outbreak an average of almost 8000 people died every day in this country -- about 2.7 or 2.8 million a year.  So the 42,000 represents, at most, five or six days' worth of extra deaths.  A terrible number,  to be sure, but not likely anywhere near enough to bankrupt life insurance companies.

The whole being instructed to rule it a COVID death is bunk. It’s complete nonsense.  I know that for a fact. That is not how it works.  Quit saying it 

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36 minutes ago, Oblong said:

The whole being instructed to rule it a COVID death is bunk. It’s complete nonsense.  I know that for a fact. That is not how it works.  Quit saying it 

There are only 54 cases.

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Well, we all said before that if the spread of the virus slows down due to massive social distancing and stay at home orders that people would say the whole thing was no big deal.

And he we are.

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1 hour ago, Oblong said:

The whole being instructed to rule it a COVID death is bunk. It’s complete nonsense.  I know that for a fact. That is not how it works.  Quit saying it 

Also citing 42,000 deaths without qualification (other than it *might no* be that large) ignores the fact the number can (and will) only get larger.

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40 minutes ago, Buddha said:

Well, we all said before that if the spread of the virus slows down due to massive social distancing and stay at home orders that people would say the whole thing was no big deal.

And he we are.

Yeah.

What I find somewhat fascinating is the same public commentators / pundits that are now saying it isn't a big deal are the **exact same** individuals who *mocked* the idea that this could be a serious illness a mere 6 or 7 weeks ago.

Maybe it is me, and I certainly think about things in unconventional ways at times (always, if you ask my wife), but if someone *sold* me on the idea that COVID was a joke / very few have died / this is a huge over-reaction by the scientific / medical community ... well ... aside from being at least a little embarrassed now that I got sold a bill of goods, I'd like to believe I would tend not to trust future proclamations from the same said pundits regarding the disease.

They kinda lost a little credibility on the topic.

For me, at least.

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I also like how a few areas reached their peak is somehow, to hear some talk, the whole of the US has reached the peak, it is all behind us, let's start discussing eliminating social distancing.

a. the manageable peak is only ****ing managable because of social distancing, and

b. 4 or 5 hotspots in the US is not the whole of the country.

It seems to me we really ought to be cautious as a baseline position until we are well into a downswing plus have better information on how prevalent the spread really is.

That seems like common sense to me.

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8 minutes ago, Mr. Bigglesworth said:

I also like how a few areas reached their peak is somehow, to hear some talk, the whole of the US has reached the peak, it is all behind us, let's start discussing eliminating social distancing.

a. the manageable peak is only ****ing managable because of social distancing, and

b. 4 or 5 hotspots in the US is not the whole of the country.

It seems to me we really ought to be cautious as a baseline position until we are well into a downswing plus have better information on how prevalent the spread really is.

That seems like common sense to me.

Open it all up and then shut it down again when our hospitals are overrun. Or open it up and everything is fine, manageable outbreaks. I guess we'll see what happens.

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19 minutes ago, Sports_Freak said:

Open it all up and then shut it down again when our hospitals are overrun. Or open it up and everything is fine, manageable outbreaks. I guess we'll see what happens.

Or we use science to inform the decision and err on the side of caution.

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32 minutes ago, Shelton said:

This site is fascinating. 

https://rt.live

Whitmer rocks. 

New York and New Jersey had 4.6!

 

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So the math on that is a summation of 0.4 to the n, with n going from 1 to infinity, right?

If so, that would mean, if we could maintain 0.4 Rt, only 2/3 (66.6%) more people would get infected from the total we are at today before it dies out on its own.  Am I understanding that correctly?  (Currently 32,000 cases in MI, plus another 21,667 gets us to roughly 55,000 cases if that holds)

If I am, once that happens the risk to Michigan's population becomes re-introduction to the virus later.

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Not that the subtext is wrong (if we reopen too soon, more will die), but the 60k figure seems like its gonna be passed regardless 

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